• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.48 no.5
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• pp.266-271
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• 2022

Background: The selection of distributions of input parameters is an important component in probabilistic exposure assessment. Goodness-of-fit (GOF) methods are used to determine the distribution of exposure factors. However, there are no clear guidelines for choosing an appropriate GOF method. Objectives: The outcomes of probabilistic consumer exposure assessment were compared by using five different GOF methods for the selection of input distributions: chi-squared test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson-Darling test (A-D), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Methods: Individual exposures were estimated based on product usage factor combinations from 10,000 respondents. The distribution of individual exposure was considered as the true value of population exposures. Results: Among the five GOF methods, probabilistic exposure distributions using the A-D and K-S methods were similar to individual exposure estimations. Comparing the 95th percentiles of the probabilistic distributions and the individual estimations for 10 CPs, there were 0.73 to 1.92 times differences for the A-D method, and 0.73 to 1.60 times differences (excluding tire-shine spray) for the K-S method. Conclusions: There were significant differences in exposure assessment results among the selection of the GOF methods. Therefore, the GOF methods for probabilistic consumer exposure assessment should be carefully selected.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.49-58
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• 2004

In this talk we proposed an asymptotic test for dimensionality in the latent variable model for probabilistic principal component analysis with missing values at random. Proposed algorithm is a sequential likelihood ratio test for an appropriate Normal latent variable model for the principal component analysis. Modified EM-algorithm is used to find MLE for the model parameters. Results from simulations and real data sets give us promising evidences that the proposed method is useful in finding necessary number of components in the principal component analysis with missing values at random.

• Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.71-83
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• 2000

This paper presents accelerated life tests for Type I censoring data under probabilistic stresses. Probabilistic stress, $S_j$, is the random variable for stress influenced by test environments, test equipments, sampling devices and use conditions. The hazard rate, ,$theta_j$, is the random variable of environments and the function of probabilistic stress. Also it is assumed that the general stress distribution is uniform, the life distribution for the given hazard rate, $\theta$, is exponential and inverse power law model holds. In this paper, we obtained maximum likelihood estimators of model parameters and the mean life in use stress condition.

• Journal of the Korea institute for structural maintenance and inspection
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.159-167
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• 2004

The compressive strength of concrete is a criterion to produce concrete. However, the tests on the compressive strength are complicated and time-consuming. More importantly, it is too late to make improvement even if the test result does not satisfy the required strength, since the test is usually performed at the 28th day after the placement of concrete at the construction site. Therefore, strength prediction before the placement of concrete is highly desirable. This study presents the probabilistic technique for predicting the compressive strength of concrete on the basis of concrete mix proportions. The estimation of the strength is based on the probabilistic neural network which is an effective tool for pattern classification problem and gives a probabilistic result, not a deterministic value. In this study, verifications for the applicability of the probabilistic neural networks were performed using the test results of concrete compressive strength. The estimated strengths are also compared with the results of the actual compression tests. It has been found that the present methods are very efficient and reasonable in predicting the compressive strength of concrete probabilistically.

• Wind and Structures
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.17-41
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• 2016

To address the uncertainty of the flight trajectories caused by the turbulence and gustiness of the wind field over the roof and in the wake of a building, a 3-D probabilistic trajectory model of flat-type wind-borne debris is developed in this study. The core of this methodology is a 6 degree-of-freedom deterministic model, derived from the governing equations of motion of the debris, and a Monte Carlo simulation engine used to account for the uncertainty resulting from vertical and lateral gust wind velocity components. The influence of several parameters, including initial wind speed, time step, gust sampling frequency, number of Monte Carlo simulations, and the extreme gust factor, on the accuracy of the proposed model is examined. For the purpose of validation and calibration, the simulated results from the 3-D probabilistic trajectory model are compared against the available wind tunnel test data. Results show that the maximum relative error between the simulated and wind tunnel test results of the average longitudinal position is about 20%, implying that the probabilistic model provides a reliable and effective means to predict the 3-D flight of the plate-type wind-borne debris.

• Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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• 2004.10a
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• pp.542-549
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• 2004

The compressive strength of concrete is commonly used criterion in producing concrete. However, the tests on the compressive strength are complicated and time-consuming. More importantly, it is too late to make improvement even if the test result does not satisfy the required strength, since the test is usually performed at the 28th day after the placement of concrete at the construction site. Therefore, accurate and realistic strength estimation before the placement of concrete is being highly required. In this study, the estimation of the compressive strength of concrete was performed by probabilistic neural network (PNN) on the basis of concrete mix proportions. The estimation performance of PNN was improved by considering the correlation between input data and targeted output value. Adaptive probabilistic neural network (APNN) was proposed to automatically calculate the smoothing parameter in the conventional PNN by using the scheme of dynamic decay adjustment algorithm. The conventional PNN and APNN were applied to predict the compressive strength of concrete using actual test data of a concrete company. APNN showed better results than the conventional PNN in predicting the compressive strength of concrete.

• Phonetics and Speech Sciences
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.85-94
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• 2017

Conventional speaker verification systems using time delay neural network, identity vector and probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (TDNN-Ivector-PLDA) are known to be very effective for verifying long-duration speech utterances. However, when test utterances are of short duration, duration mismatch between enrollment and test utterances significantly degrades the performance of TDNN-Ivector-PLDA systems. To compensate for the I-vector mismatch between long and short utterances, this paper proposes to use probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA) model adaptation with augmented data. A PLDA model is trained on vast amount of speech data, most of which have long duration. Then, the PLDA model is adapted with the I-vectors obtained from short-utterance data which are augmented by using vocal tract length perturbation (VTLP). In computer experiments using the NIST SRE 2008 database, the proposed method is shown to achieve significantly better performance than the conventional TDNN-Ivector-PLDA systems when there exists duration mismatch between enrollment and test utterances.

• Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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• v.17 no.6 s.90
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• pp.1075-1084
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• 2005

The compressive strength of concrete is commonly used criterion in producing concrete. However, the tests on the compressive strength are complicated and time-consuming. More importantly, it is too late to make improvement even if the test result does not satisfy the required strength, since the test is usually performed at the 28th day after the placement of concrete at the construction site. Therefore, accurate and realistic strength estimation before the placement of concrete is being highly required. In this study, the estimation of the compressive strength of concrete was performed by probabilistic neural network(PNN) on the basis of concrete mix proportions. The estimation performance of PNN was improved by considering the correlation between input data and targeted output value. Improved probabilistic neural network was proposed to automatically calculate the smoothing parameter in the conventional PNN by using the scheme of dynamic decay adjustment (DDA) algorithm. The conventional PNN and the PNN with DDA algorithm(IPNN) were applied to predict the compressive strength of concrete using actual test data of two concrete companies. IPNN showed better results than the conventional PNN in predicting the compressive strength of concrete.

• Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.53-58
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• 2021

Nuclear power plant's safety against seismic events is evaluated as risk values by probabilistic seismic safety assessment. The risk values vary by the seismic failure correlation between the structures, systems, and components (SSCs). However, most probabilistic seismic safety assessments idealized the seismic failure correlation between the SSCs as entirely dependent or independent. Such a consideration results in an inaccurate assessment result not reflecting real physical phenomenon. A nuclear power plant's seismic risk should be calculated with the appropriate seismic failure correlation coefficient between the SSCs for a reasonable outcome. An accident scenario that has an enormous impact on a nuclear power plant's seismic risk was selected. Moreover, the probabilistic seismic response analyses of a nuclear power plant were performed to derive appropriate seismic failure correlations between SSCs. Based on the analysis results, the seismic failure correlation coefficient between SSCs was derived, and the seismic fragility curve and core damage frequency of the loss of essential power event were calculated. Results were compared with the seismic fragility and core damage frequency of assuming the seismic failure correlations between SSCs were independent and entirely dependent.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.25 no.11
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• pp.87-103
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• 2009

To determine the reliable probabilistic distribution model of geotechnical properties, outlier and randomness test for analysis data, parameter estimation of probabilistic distribution model, and goodness-of-fit test for model parameter and probabilistic distribution model have to be performed in sequence. In this paper, the probabilistic distribution model's geotechnical properties of Songdo area in Incheon are estimated by the above proposed procedure. Also, the coefficient of variation (COV) representing the variability of geotechnical properties is determined for several geotechnical properties. Reliable probabilistic distribution model and COV of geotechnical properties can be used for probability-based design procedure and reasonable choice of design value in deterministic design method.