• 제목/요약/키워드: probabilistic safety assessment

검색결과 362건 처리시간 0.023초

확률론적 평가를 이용한 원자력발전소 소내전력공급계통 신뢰도 감시 방법 (A Method to Monitor the Reliability of In-house Power Supply Systems in Nuclear Power Plants Based on Probabilistic Assessment)

  • 박진엽;정동욱
    • 전기학회논문지
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    • 제58권3호
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    • pp.444-449
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    • 2009
  • This paper introduces a method to establish performance criteria of the in-house power supply system in nuclear power plants. The performance criteria of the system is presented in terms of the number of function failures and amount of the out-of-service time that can be allowed commensurate with the probabilistic safety assessment results of the nuclear power plants. To obtain the performance criteria such as reliability and availability, the functions of the system were analyzed and probabilistic assessment results were utilized. This method provides quantitative guidelines in selecting and monitoring system functions to determine an adequate level of maintenance quality in order to ensure the probabilistic goals for the safety of the nuclear power plants.

Development of logical structure for multi-unit probabilistic safety assessment

  • Lim, Ho-Gon;Kim, Dong-San;Han, Sang Hoon;Yang, Joon Eon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제50권8호
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    • pp.1210-1216
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    • 2018
  • Site or multi-unit (MU) risk assessment has been a major issue in the field of nuclear safety study since the Fukushima accident in 2011. There have been few methods or experiences for MU risk assessment because the Fukushima accident was the first real MU accident and before the accident, there was little expectation of the possibility that an MU accident will occur. In addition to the lack of experience of MU risk assessment, since an MU nuclear power plant site is usually very complex to analyze as a whole, it was considered that a systematic method such as probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is difficult to apply to MU risk assessment. This paper proposes a new MU risk assessment methodology by using the conventional PSA methodology which is widely used in nuclear power plant risk assessment. The logical failure structure of a site with multiple units is suggested from the definition of site risk, and a decomposition method is applied to identify specific MU failure scenarios.

Technical note: Estimation of Korean industry-average initiating event frequencies for use in probabilistic safety assessment

  • Kim, Dong-San;Park, Jin Hee;Lim, Ho-Gon
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제52권1호
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    • pp.211-221
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    • 2020
  • One fundamental element of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) is the initiating event (IE) analysis. Since IE frequencies can change over time, time-trend analysis is required to obtain optimized IE frequencies. Accordingly, such time-trend analyses have been employed to estimate industry-average IE frequencies for use in the PSAs of U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs); existing PSAs of Korean NPPs, however, neglect such analysis in the estimation of IE frequencies. This article therefore provides the method for and results of estimating Korean industry-average IE frequencies using time-trend analysis. It also examines the effects of the IE frequencies obtained from this study on risk insights by applying them to recently updated internal events Level 1 PSA models (at-power and shutdown) for an OPR-1000 plant. As a result, at-power core damage frequency decreased while shutdown core damage frequency increased, with the related contributions from each IE category changing accordingly. These results imply that the incorporation of time-trend analysis leads to different IE frequencies and resulting risk insights. The IE frequency distributions presented in this study can be used in future PSA updates for Korean NPPs, and should be further updated themselves by adding more recent data.

Use of the t-Distribution to Construct Seismic Hazard Curves for Seismic Probabilistic Safety Assessments

  • Yee, Eric
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제49권2호
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    • pp.373-379
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    • 2017
  • Seismic probabilistic safety assessments are used to help understand the impact potential seismic events can have on the operation of a nuclear power plant. An important component to seismic probabilistic safety assessment is the seismic hazard curve which shows the frequency of seismic events. However, these hazard curves are estimated assuming a normal distribution of the seismic events. This may not be a strong assumption given the number of recorded events at each source-to-site distance. The use of a normal distribution makes the calculations significantly easier but may underestimate or overestimate the more rare events, which is of concern to nuclear power plants. This paper shows a preliminary exploration into the effect of using a distribution that perhaps more represents the distribution of events, such as the t-distribution to describe data. The integration of a probability distribution with potentially larger tails basically pushes the hazard curves outward, suggesting a different range of frequencies for use in seismic probabilistic safety assessments. Therefore the use of a more realistic distribution results in an increase in the frequency calculations suggesting rare events are less rare than thought in terms of seismic probabilistic safety assessment. However, the opposite was observed with the ground motion prediction equation considered.

Level 1 probabilistic safety assessment of supercritical-CO2-cooled micro modular reactor in conceptual design phase

  • So, Eunseo;Kim, Man Cheol
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제53권2호
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    • pp.498-508
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    • 2021
  • Micro reactors are increasingly being considered for utilization as distributed power sources. Hence, the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a direct supercritical-CO2-cooled fast reactor, called micro modular reactor (MMR), was performed in this study; this reactor was developed using innovative design concepts. It adopted a modular design and passive safety systems to minimize site constraints. As the MMR is in its conceptual design phase, design weaknesses and valuable safety insights could be identified during PSA. Level 1 internal event PSA was carried out involving literature survey, system characterization, identification of initiating events, transient analyses, development of event trees and fault trees, and quantification. The initiating events and scenarios significantly contributing to core damage frequency (CDF) were determined to identify design weaknesses in MMR. The most significant initiating event category contributing to CDF was the transients with the power conversion system initially available category, owing to its relatively high occurrence frequency. Further, an importance analysis revealed that the safety of MMR can be significantly improved by improving the reliability of reactor trip and passive decay heat removal system operation. The findings presented in this paper are expected to contribute toward future applications of PSA for assessing unconventional nuclear reactors in their conceptual design phases.

Insights from the KNGR Preliminary Level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment

  • Na, Jang-Hwan;Oh, Hae-Cheol;Oh, Seung-Jong
    • 한국원자력학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국원자력학회 1998년도 춘계학술발표회논문집(1)
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    • pp.862-868
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    • 1998
  • Korean Next Generation Reactor(KNGR) is a standardized evolutionary Advanced Light Water Reactor design under development Korea Power Company(KEPCO). It incorporates design enhncements such as active and passive advanced design features(ADFs) to increase the plant safety. A Preliminary level 1 Probabilistic Safety Assessment(PSA) has been performed for KNGR to examine the effect of these safety features. The preliminary PSA result shows that it meets the KNGR safety goal on core damage frequency(CDF). The result of this safety assessment shows that the four-train safety systems, and the ADFs such as Passive Secondary Cooling System (PSCS) contributes greatly to the reduction the CDF. Furthermore, several design changes are made or proposed for detailed review based on the PSA insights.

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Application of Dynamic Probabilistic Safety Assessment Approach for Accident Sequence Precursor Analysis: Case Study for Steam Generator Tube Rupture

  • Lee, Hansul;Kim, Taewan;Heo, Gyunyoung
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제49권2호
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    • pp.306-312
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this research is to introduce the technical standard of accident sequence precursor (ASP) analysis, and to propose a case study using the dynamic-probabilistic safety assessment (D-PSA) approach. The D-PSA approach can aid in the determination of high-risk/low-frequency accident scenarios from all potential scenarios. It can also be used to investigate the dynamic interaction between the physical state and the actions of the operator in an accident situation for risk quantification. This approach lends significant potential for safety analysis. Furthermore, the D-PSA approach provides a more realistic risk assessment by minimizing assumptions used in the conventional PSA model so-called the static-PSA model, which are relatively static in comparison. We performed risk quantification of a steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) accident using the dynamic event tree (DET) methodology, which is the most widely used methodology in D-PSA. The risk quantification results of D-PSA and S-PSA are compared and evaluated. Suggestions and recommendations for using D-PSA are described in order to provide a technical perspective.

Probabilistic safety assessment-based importance analysis of cyber-attacks on nuclear power plants

  • Park, Jong Woo;Lee, Seung Jun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • 제51권1호
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    • pp.138-145
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    • 2019
  • With the application of digital technology to safety-critical infrastructures, cyber-attacks have emerged as one of the new dangerous threats. In safety-critical infrastructures such as a nuclear power plant (NPP), a cyber-attack could have serious consequences by initiating dangerous events or rendering important safety systems unavailable. Since a cyber-attack is conducted intentionally, numerous possible cases should be considered for developing a cyber security system, such as the attack paths, methods, and potential target systems. Therefore, prior to developing a risk-informed cyber security strategy, the importance of cyber-attacks and significant critical digital assets (CDAs) should be analyzed. In this work, an importance analysis method for cyber-attacks on an NPP was proposed using the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) method. To develop an importance analysis framework for cyber-attacks, possible cyber-attacks were identified with failure modes, and a PSA model for cyber-attacks was developed. For case studies, the quantitative evaluations of cyber-attack scenarios were performed using the proposed method. By using quantitative importance of cyber-attacks and identifying significant CDAs that must be defended against cyber-attacks, it is possible to develop an efficient and reliable defense strategy against cyber-attacks on NPPs.

일본 서부 단층 지진원을 고려한 확률론적 지진해일 재해도 분석의 파고 변수 도출 (Estimation of Wave Parameters for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis Considering the Fault Sources in the Western Part of Japan)

  • 이현미;김민규;신동훈;최인길
    • 한국지진공학회논문집
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    • 제18권3호
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    • pp.151-160
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    • 2014
  • Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is based on the approach of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which is performed using various seismotectonic models and ground-motion prediction equations. The major difference between PTHA and PSHA is that PTHA requires the wave parameters of tsunami. The wave parameters can be estimated from tsunami propagation analysis. Therefore, a tsunami simulation analysis was conducted for the purpose of evaluating the wave parameters required for the PTHA of Uljin nuclear power plant (NPP) site. The tsunamigenic fault sources in the western part of Japan were chosen for the analysis. The wave heights for 80 rupture scenarios were numerically simulated. The synthetic tsunami waveforms were obtained around the Uljin NPP site. The results show that the wave heights are closely related with the location of the fault sources and the associated potential earthquake magnitudes. These wave parameters can be used as input data for the future PTHA study of the Uljin NPP site.

폐밀봉선원 처분시스템 예비 폐쇄후 안전성평가 (Preliminary Post-closure Safety Assessment of Disposal System for Disused Sealed Radioactive Source)

  • 이승희;김주열
    • 한국지하수토양환경학회지:지하수토양환경
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.33-48
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    • 2017
  • An optimum disposal plan of disused sealed radioactive sources (DSRSs) should be established to ensure long-term disposal safety at the low- and intermediate-level radioactive waste (LILW) disposal facility in Gyeongju. In this study, an optimum disposal system was suggested and preliminary post-closure safety assessment was performed. The DSRSs disposal system was composed of a rock cavern and near surface disposal facilities at the Gyeongju LILW disposal facility. The assessment was conducted using GoldSim program, and probabilistic assessment and sensitivity analysis were implemented to evaluate the uncertainties in the input parameters of natural barriers. Deterministic and probabilistic calculations indicated that the maximum dose was below the regulatory limits ($0.1mSvyr^{-1}$ for the normal scenario, $1mSvyr^{-1}$ for the well scenario). It was concluded that the DSRSs disposal system would maintain environmental safety over a long-time. Moreover, the partition coefficient of Np in host rock, Darcy velocity in host rock, and density of the host rock were the most sensitive parameters in predicting exposure dose in the safety assessment.