• Title/Summary/Keyword: probabilistic random process

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A Study on Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation of Power System Considering Wind Turbine Generators (풍력발전기를 고려한 전력계통의 확률론적인 신뢰도 평가에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Jeong-Je;Wu, Liang;Choi, Jae-Seok;Moon, Seung-Il
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.57 no.9
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    • pp.1491-1499
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents a study on reliability evaluation of a power system considering wind turbine generators (WTG) with multi-state. Renewable energy resources such as wind, wave, solar, micro hydro, tidal and biomass etc. are becoming importance stage by stage because of considering effect of the environment. Wind energy is one of the most successful sources of renewable energy for the production of electrical energy. But, reliability evaluation of generating system with wind energy resources is a complex process. While the wind turbine generators can not modelled as two-state model as like as conventional generators, they should be modelled as multi-state model due to wind speed random variation. The methodology for obtaining reliability evaluation index of wind turbine generators is different from it of the conventional generators. A method for making outage capacity probability table of WTG for reliability is proposed in this paper. The detail process is presented using case study of simple system.

Analysis on the Power System Reliability Characteristics according to the High-Efficient End-Use Diffusion (고효율기기의 보급확산에 따른 전력시스템 공급신뢰도의 영향분석)

  • Chang, Seung-Chan;Hwang, Sung-Wook;Cho, Hyoung-Joon;Kim, Jung-Hoon;Kim, Bal-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 1998.11a
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    • pp.239-241
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    • 1998
  • The probabilistic production simulation of power system generally has been used to formulate a reasonable power production plan or generation planning. It integrates the convolution process of a generating unit's random outage(FOR) with equivalent load duration curve(ELDC), and provides the reliability indices of power system. This paper presents the reliability characteristics of power system reflected on demand side management and proposes the modified ELDC representation technique due to the high-efficient end-use diffusion among the customers. Load reductions are simulated from the multi-state deconvolution process with the saved capacity of end-use. Case study shows the computed reliability from the power system production simulation incorporated with DSM planning scheme.

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Probabilistic Analysis of AIS.31 Statistical Tests for TRNGs and Their Applications to Security Evaluations (진난수발생기용 난수성 검정 방법 AIS.31에 대한 확률론적 분석 및 보안성 평가 적용 방법)

  • Park, Hojoong;Kang, Ju-Sung;Yeom, Yongjin
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.49-67
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    • 2016
  • SP 800-90B of NIST(USA) and AIS.31 of BSI(Germany) are representative statistical tests for TRNGs. In this paper, we concentrate on AIS.31 which is under the ongoing international standardization process. We examine the probabilistic meaning of each statistic of the test in AIS.31 and investigate its probability distribution. By changing significance level and the length of sample bits, we obtain formalized accept region of the test. Furthermore we propose the accept regions for some iterative tests, that are not mentioned in AIS.31, and provide some simulations.

Generation of RMS Hazard-Compatible Artificial Earthquake Ground Motions (RMS 가속도에 의한 인공 지진파 생성기법)

  • Kim, Jin-Man
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2003
  • Due to the random nature of earthquake, the definition of the input excitation is one of the major uncertainties in the seismic response analysis. Furthermore, ground motions that correspond to a limited number of design parameters are not unique. Consequently, a brood range of response values can be obtained even with a set of motions, which match the same target parameters. The paper presents a practical probabilistic approach that can be used to systematically model the stochastic nature of seismic loading. The new approach is based on energy-based RMS hazard and takes account for the uncertainties of key ground motion parameters. The simulations indicate that the new RMS procedure is particularly useful for the rigorous probabilistic seismic response analysis, since the procedure is suitable for generation of large number of hazard-compatible motions, unlike the conventional procedure that aim to generate a small number of motions.

Fatigue life prediction of multiple site damage based on probabilistic equivalent initial flaw model

  • Kim, JungHoon;Zi, Goangseup;Van, Son-Nguyen;Jeong, MinChul;Kong, JungSik;Kim, Minsung
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.443-457
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    • 2011
  • The loss of strength in a structure as a result of cyclic loads over a period of life time is an important phenomenon for the life-cycle analysis. Service loads are accentuated at the areas of stress concentration, mainly at the connection of components. Structural components unavoidably are affected by defects such as surface scratches, surface roughness and weld defects of random sizes, which usually occur during the manufacturing and handling process. These defects are shown to have an important effect on the fatigue life of the structural components by promoting crack initiation sites. The value of equivalent initial flaw size (EIFS) is calculated by using the back extrapolation technique and the Paris law of fatigue crack growth from results of fatigue tests. We try to analyze the effect of EIFS distribution in a multiple site damage (MSD) specimen by using the extended finite element method (XFEM). For the analysis, fatigue tests were conducted on the centrally-cracked specimens and MSD specimens.

Generation of synthetic accelerograms using a probabilistic critical excitation method based on energy constraint

  • Bazrafshan, Arsalan;Khaji, Naser
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.45-56
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    • 2020
  • The application of critical excitation method with displacement-based objective function for multi degree of freedom (MDOF) systems is investigated. To this end, a new critical excitation method is developed to find the critical input motion of a MDOF system as a synthetic accelerogram. The upper bound of earthquake input energy per unit mass is considered as a new constraint for the problem, and its advantages are discussed. Considering this constraint, the critical excitation method is then used to generate synthetic accelerograms for MDOF models corresponding to three shear buildings of 10, 16, and 22 stories. In order to demonstrate the reliability of generated accelerograms to estimate dynamic response of the structures, three target ground motions with considerable level of energy contents are selected to represent "real critical excitation" of each model, and the method is used to re-generate these ground motions. Afterwards, linear dynamic analyses are conducted using these accelerograms along with the generated critical excitations, to investigate the key parameters of response including maximum displacement, maximum interstory drift, and maximum absolute acceleration of stories. The results show that the generated critical excitations can make an acceptable estimate of the structural behavior compared to the target ground motions. Therefore, the method can be reliably implemented to generate critical excitation of the structure when real one is not available.

DL-RRT* algorithm for least dose path Re-planning in dynamic radioactive environments

  • Chao, Nan;Liu, Yong-kuo;Xia, Hong;Peng, Min-jun;Ayodeji, Abiodun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.825-836
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    • 2019
  • One of the most challenging safety precautions for workers in dynamic, radioactive environments is avoiding radiation sources and sustaining low exposure. This paper presents a sampling-based algorithm, DL-RRT*, for minimum dose walk-path re-planning in radioactive environments, expedient for occupational workers in nuclear facilities to avoid unnecessary radiation exposure. The method combines the principle of random tree star ($RRT^*$) and $D^*$ Lite, and uses the expansion strength of grid search strategy from $D^*$ Lite to quickly find a high-quality initial path to accelerate convergence rate in $RRT^*$. The algorithm inherits probabilistic completeness and asymptotic optimality from $RRT^*$ to refine the existing paths continually by sampling the search-graph obtained from the grid search process. It can not only be applied to continuous cost spaces, but also make full use of the last planning information to avoid global re-planning, so as to improve the efficiency of path planning in frequently changing environments. The effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method was verified by simulating radiation field under varying obstacles and radioactive environments, and the results were compared with $RRT^*$ algorithm output.

Lubrication Properties of Various Pattern Shapes on Rough Surfaces Considering Asperity Contact (돌기접촉을 고려한 거친 표면 위 다양한 패턴 형상에 따른 윤활 특성 연구)

  • Kim, Mi-Ru;Lee, Seung-Jun;Jeong, Jae-Ho;Lee, Deug-Woo
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.39-46
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    • 2018
  • Two surfaces that have relative motion show different characteristics according to surface roughness or surface patterns in all lubrication areas. For two rough surfaces with mixed lubrication, this paper proposes a new approach that includes the contact characteristics of the surfaces and a probabilistic method for a numerical analysis of lubrication. As the contact area of the two surfaces changes according to the loading conditions, asperity contact is very important. An average flow model developed by Patir-Cheng is central to the study of lubrication for rough surfaces. This average flow model also refers to a multi-asperity contact model for deriving a modified Reynolds equation and calculating the lubricant characteristics of a bearing surface with random roughness during fluid flow. Based on the average flow model, this paper carried out a numerical analysis of lubrication using a contact model by considering a load change made by the actual contact of asperities between two surfaces. Lubrication properties show different characteristics according to the surface patterns. This study modeled various geometric surface patterns and calculated the characteristics of lubrication.

Abnormal Behavior Recognition Based on Spatio-temporal Context

  • Yang, Yuanfeng;Li, Lin;Liu, Zhaobin;Liu, Gang
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.612-628
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    • 2020
  • This paper presents a new approach for detecting abnormal behaviors in complex surveillance scenes where anomalies are subtle and difficult to distinguish due to the intricate correlations among multiple objects' behaviors. Specifically, a cascaded probabilistic topic model was put forward for learning the spatial context of local behavior and the temporal context of global behavior in two different stages. In the first stage of topic modeling, unlike the existing approaches using either optical flows or complete trajectories, spatio-temporal correlations between the trajectory fragments in video clips were modeled by the latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) topic model based on Markov random fields to obtain the spatial context of local behavior in each video clip. The local behavior topic categories were then obtained by exploiting the spectral clustering algorithm. Based on the construction of a dictionary through the process of local behavior topic clustering, the second phase of the LDA topic model learns the correlations of global behaviors and temporal context. In particular, an abnormal behavior recognition method was developed based on the learned spatio-temporal context of behaviors. The specific identification method adopts a top-down strategy and consists of two stages: anomaly recognition of video clip and anomalous behavior recognition within each video clip. Evaluation was performed using the validity of spatio-temporal context learning for local behavior topics and abnormal behavior recognition. Furthermore, the performance of the proposed approach in abnormal behavior recognition improved effectively and significantly in complex surveillance scenes.

Reliability Analysis on Stability of Armor Units for Foundation Mound of Composite Breakwaters (혼성제 기초 마운드의 피복재 안정성에 대한 신뢰성 해석)

  • Cheol-Eung Lee
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2023
  • Probabilistic and deterministic analyses are implemented for the armor units of rubble foundation mound of composite breakwaters which is needed to protect the upright section against the scour of foundation mounds. By a little modification and incorporation of the previous empirical formulas that has commonly been applied to design the armor units of foundation mound, a new type formula of stability number has been suggested which is capable of taking into account slopes of foundation mounds, damage ratios of armor units, and incident wave numbers. The new proposed formula becomes mathematically identical with the previous empirical formula under the same conditions used in the developing process. Deterministic design have first been carried out to evaluate the minimum weights of armor units for several conditions associated with a typical section of composite breakwater. When the slopes of foundation mound become steepening and the incident wave numbers are increasing, the bigger armor units more than those from the previous empirical formula should be required. The opposite trends however are shown if the damage ratios is much more allowed. Meanwhile, the reliability analysis, which is one of probabilistic models, has been performed in order to quantitatively verify how the armor unit resulted from the deterministic design is stable. It has been confirmed that 1.2% of annual encounter probability of failure has been evaluated under the condition of 1% damage ratio of armor units for the design wave of 50 years return period. By additionally calculating the influence factors of the related random variables on the failure probability due to those uncertainties, it has been found that Hudson's stability coefficient, significant wave height, and water depth above foundation mound have sequentially been given the impacts on failure regardless of the incident wave angles. Finally, sensitivity analysis has been interpreted with respect to the variations of random variables which are implicitly involved in the formula of stability number for armor units of foundation mound. Then, the probability of failure have been rapidly decreased as the water depth above foundation mound are deepening. However, it has been shown that the probability of failure have been increased according as the berm width of foundation mound are widening and wave periods become shortening.