• 한국정밀공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국정밀공학회 2009년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.437-438
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• 2009

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제53권9호
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• pp.487-493
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• 2004

The electric power industry throughout the world is undergoing considerable changes from the vertically integrated utility structure to the deregulated market. However, the deregulated electricity market is operated with respect to theory of economical efficiency, and therefore, the system operator requires data with fast contingency ranking for security of the bulk power system. This paper compares the weather dependant probabilistic risk index(PRI) with the system performance index for power flow in the IEEE-RTS. The system performance index for power flow presents the power system stability. This paper presents fast calculation method for determining contingency ranking using the weather dependant probabilistic risk index(PRI). The probabilistic risk index can be classified into the case of normal and adverse weather. This paper proposes calculation method using the probabilistic risk index in determining contingency ranking required for security under the deregulated electricity market.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제58권4호
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• pp.700-707
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• 2009

The application of renewable energy in electric power systems is growing rapidly in order to make provision for the inequality of the climate, the dwindling supplies of coal, oil and natural gas and a further rise in oil prices. Solar cell generators(SCG) is one of the fastest growing renewable energy. This paper presents a methodology on probabilistic production cost simulation of a power system including SCGs. The generated power by SCGs is variable due to the random variation of solar radiation. In order to solve this problem, the SCGs is modeled as multi-state operational model in this paper. Probabilistic production cost of a power system can be calculated by proposed method considering SCGs with multi-state. The results show that the impacts of SCGs added to a power system can be analyzed in view point of production cost using the proposed method.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제60권2호
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• pp.95-101
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• 2018

The objective of this study is to evaluate the liquefaction cyclic shear stress ratio considering the soil uncertainty. In this study, the probabilistic ground response analysis and the cyclic shear stress ratio analysis for the liquefaction potential evaluation are performed considering the soil variability. The statistical properties of input ground parameters were analyzed to investigate the parameters affecting the seismic response analysis. The Probabilistic analysis was carried out by Monte Carlo Simulation method. The ground response analysis was performed considering the soil variability and the probability distribution characteristics of the ground acceleration. The probability distribution of the peak ground acceleration by seismic characteristics was presented. The differences of liquefaction shear stress ratio results according to soil variability were compared and analyzed. The maximum acceleration of the ground by the deterministic method was analyzed to be overestimation of the ground amplification phenomenon. Also, the shear stress ratio was overestimated.

• 한국추진공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국추진공학회 2006년도 제27회 추계학술대회논문집
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• pp.71-74
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• 2006

본 논문은 미국의 우주개발과 함께 고안되어 여러 산업에 걸쳐 적용된 바 있는 확률적 위험 분석(probabilistic Risk Assessment; PRA) 기법의 역사와 내용을 소개하고 현재 항공우주연구연이 개발하고 있는 소형위성발사체(KSLV-I)의 추진기관에 대하여 그 흐름대로 적용하여 실제 기술적 위험 관리와 신뢰도 분석에 적용 가능함을 확인하고 한다.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제51권12호
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• pp.638-646
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• 2002

This paper presents an efficient algorithm for evaluating the Profit and revenue of generating units in a competitive electricity market based on the probabilistic production costing technique. The accurate evaluation of the profit and revenue of generating units for long-term perspectives is one of the most important issues in a competitive electricity market environment. For efficient calculation of the profit and revenue of generating units under the equivalent load duration curve(ELDC), a new approach to figure out the marginal plants and the corresponding market clearing prices during a time period in a probabilistic manner is developed. The mathematical formulation and illustrative application of the suggested method is presented.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 1989년도 가을 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.40-45
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• 1989

In order to take account of the statistical properties of random variables used in the structural analysis, the conventional approach usually adopts the safety factor based on past experiences for the qualitative assessment of structural safety problem. Recently, new approach based on the probabilistic concept has been applied to the assessment of structural safety in order to circumvent the difficulties of the conventional approach in choosing the appropriate safety factor. Thus, computer program called "Probabilistic finite element method" is developed by incorporation the probabilistic concept into the conventional matrix method in order to investigate the effects of the random variables on the final output of the structural analysis. From the comparison of some examples, it can be concluded that the PFEM developed in this study deals with consistently with the uncertainty of random variables and provides the rational tool for the assessment of structural safety of plane frame.

• Steel and Composite Structures
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• 제8권1호
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• pp.35-52
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• 2008

The paper investigates the seismic performance of a Partially-Restrained (PR) steel-concrete composite frame using the probabilistic approach. The analysed frame was tested at the ELSA laboratory of the Joint Research Centre of Ispra (Italy), while the representative beam-to-column composite connections were tested at the Universities of Pisa, Milan and Trento (Italy). The component modelling of both interior and exterior composite joints is described first, including the experimental-numerical validation. The Latin Hypercube method has been used to draw the probabilistic distribution curves of joints, and then the whole PR composite frame has been analysed. Pushover and incremental dynamic analyses have been carried out using the non-linear FE code SAP2000 version 9.1. The fragility and performance curves of the PR composite frame have been determined for four damage limit states.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.751-767
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• 2015

A new procedure is proposed for assessing probabilistic condition of structures considering effect of measured data uncertainty. In this procedure, multiple Finite Element (FE) models are identified by using weighting vectors that represent the uncertainty conditions of measured data. The distribution of structural parameters is analysed using a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in relation to uncertainty conditions, and the identified models are classified into groups according to their similarity by using a K-means method. The condition of a structure is then assessed probabilistically using FE models in the classified groups, each of which represents specific uncertainty condition of measured data. Yeondae bridge, a steel-box girder expressway bridge in Korea, is used as an illustrative example. Probabilistic condition of the bridge is evaluated by the distribution of load rating factors obtained using multiple FE models. The numerical example shows that the proposed method can quantify uncertainty of measured data and subsequently evaluate efficiently the probabilistic condition of bridges.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제41권3호
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• pp.49-59
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• 2004

The paper describes the preliminary ship design method using deterministic approach and probabilistic approach. In deterministic approach, there are computational aspects to applying not only the integration concurrently of principal dimension decisions and hull form variations but also hydrostatic coefficients that applied to optimization iterative process. Therefore, this paper developed that actual design concept at the preliminary ship design more than sequential design which separated in principal dimension decisions and hull form variations. Furthermore, a probabilistic approach at the preliminary ship design is applied to efficiently solve design information uncertainty that compared to deterministic approach.