• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• v.39 no.3
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• pp.75-83
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• 2024

Accurately assessing and managing risks in any endeavor is crucial. Risk assessment in engineering translates the abstract concept of risk into actionable strategies for systematic risk management. However, risk validation is met with significant skepticism, particularly concerning the uncertainty of probability. This study aims to address the aforementioned uncertainty in a multitude of ways. Firstly, instead of relying on deterministic probability, it acknowledges uncertainty and presents a probabilistic interval. Secondly, considering the uncertainty interval highlighted in OREDA, it delineates the bounds of the probabilistic interval. Lastly, it investigates how much explanatory power deterministic probability has within the defined probabilistic interval. By utilizing fault tree analysis (FTA) and integrating confidence intervals, a probabilistic risk assessment was conducted to scrutinize the explanatory power of deterministic probability. In this context, explanatory power signifies the proportion of probability within the probabilistic risk assessment interval that lies below the deterministic probability. Research results reveal that at a 90% confidence interval, the explanatory power of deterministic probability decreases to 73%. Additionally, it was confirmed that explanatory power reached 100% only with a probability application 36.9 times higher.

• The Journal of Korea Robotics Society
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• v.2 no.3
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• pp.227-233
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• 2007

Representing an environment as the probabilistic grids is effective to sense outlines of the environment in the mobile robot area. Outlines of an environment can be expressed factually by using the probabilistic grids especially if sonar sensors would be supposed to build an environment map. However, the difficult problem of a sonar such as a specular reflection phenomenon should be overcome to build a grid map through sonar observations. In this paper, the NRF(Neighborhood Recognition Factor) was developed for building a grid map in which the specular reflection effect is minimized. Also the reproduction rate of the gird map built by using NRF was analyzed with respect to a true map. The experiment was conducted in a home environment to verify the proposed technique.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2002.10a
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• pp.82.1-82
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• 2002

$\textbullet$ Nearest neighbor filter $\textbullet$ Probabilistic nearest neighbor filter $\textbullet$ Probabilistic nearest neighbor filter incorporating numbers of validated measurements $\textbullet$ Probability density function of the NDS $\textbullet$ Simulation results in a clutter environment to verify the performances $\textbullet$ Sensitivity analysis for the unknown spatial clutter density

• Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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• v.9 no.10
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• pp.747-754
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• 2003

An enhancement of the probabilistic data association filter is presented for tracking a single maneuvering target in clutter environment. The use of the variable dimensional structure leads the probabilistic data association filter to adjust to real motion of a target. The detection of the maneuver for the model switching is performed by the acceleration estimates taken from a bias estimator of the two stage Kalman filter. The proposed algorithm needs low computational power since it is implemented with a single filtering procedure. A simple Monte Carlo simulation was performed to compare the performance of the proposed algorithm and the IMMPDA filter.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Automotive Engineers
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• v.21 no.4
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• pp.33-42
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• 2013

This paper describes a multiple vehicle tracking algorithm using an integrated probabilistic data association filter (IPDAF) in urban environments. The algorithm consists of two parts; a pre-processing stage and an IPDA tracker. In the pre-processing stage, measurements are generated by a feature extraction method that manipulates raw data into predefined geometric features of vehicles as lines and boxes. After that, the measurements are divided into two different objects, dynamic and static objects, by using information of ego-vehicle motion. The IPDA tracker estimates not only states of tracks but also existence probability recursively. The existence probability greatly assists reliable initiation and termination of track in cluttered environment. The algorithm was validated by using experimental data which is collected in urban environment by using single laser scanner.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2001.10a
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• pp.36.5-36
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• 2001

Localization is one of the key problems in the navigation of autonomous mobile robots. The probabilistic Markov localization approaches offer a good mathematical framework to deal with the uncertainty of environment and sensor readings but their use for realtime applications is limited by their computational complexity. This paper aims to reduce the high computational cost associated with the probabilistic Markov localization algorithm. We propose a hybrid landmark-based localization method combining triangulation and probabilistic approaches, which can efficiently update position probability grid, while the probabilistic framework allows to make use of any available sensor data to refine robot´s belief about its current location. The simulation results show the effectiveness and robustness of the method.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Industry Convergence
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• v.23 no.5
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• pp.799-807
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• 2020

This paper deals with identification of probabilistic design using reliability based robust optimization in structure design of automatic salt collector. The thickness sizing variables of main structure member in the automatic salt collector were considered the random design variables including the uncertainty of corrosion that would be an inevitable hazardousness in the saltern work environment. The probabilistic constraint functions were selected from the strength performances of the automatic salt collector. The reliability based robust optimum design problem was formulated such that the random design variables were determined by minimizing the weight of the automatic salt collector subject to the probabilistic strength performance constraints evaluating from reliability analysis. Mean value reliability method and adaptive importance sampling method were applied to the reliability evaluation in the reliability based robust optimization. The three sigma level quality was considered robustness in side constraints. The probabilistic optimum design results according to the reliability analysis methods were compared to deterministic optimum design results. The reliability based robust optimization using the mean value reliability method showed the most rational results for the probabilistic optimum structure design of the automatic salt collector.

• Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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• v.48 no.5
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• pp.266-271
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• 2022

Background: The selection of distributions of input parameters is an important component in probabilistic exposure assessment. Goodness-of-fit (GOF) methods are used to determine the distribution of exposure factors. However, there are no clear guidelines for choosing an appropriate GOF method. Objectives: The outcomes of probabilistic consumer exposure assessment were compared by using five different GOF methods for the selection of input distributions: chi-squared test, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (K-S), Anderson-Darling test (A-D), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). Methods: Individual exposures were estimated based on product usage factor combinations from 10,000 respondents. The distribution of individual exposure was considered as the true value of population exposures. Results: Among the five GOF methods, probabilistic exposure distributions using the A-D and K-S methods were similar to individual exposure estimations. Comparing the 95th percentiles of the probabilistic distributions and the individual estimations for 10 CPs, there were 0.73 to 1.92 times differences for the A-D method, and 0.73 to 1.60 times differences (excluding tire-shine spray) for the K-S method. Conclusions: There were significant differences in exposure assessment results among the selection of the GOF methods. Therefore, the GOF methods for probabilistic consumer exposure assessment should be carefully selected.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.25 no.4
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• pp.494-501
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• 2009

Probabilistic Ecological risk assessment (PERA) is extensive approach to qualify and quantify risk on the multi species based on species sensitivity distribution (SSD). As a while, deterministic ecological risk assessment (DERA) considers the comparison of predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) and predicted exposure concentration (PEC). DERA is used to determine if there is potential risk or no risk, and it doesn't consider the nature variability and the species sensitivity. But PERA can be more realistic and reasonable approach to estimate likelihood or risk. In this study, we compared PERA used in developed countries, and proposed PERA applicable for the Korean water environment. Taxonomic groups were classified as "class" level including Actinopterygill, Branchiopoda, Chlorophyceae, Maxillapoda, Insects, Bivalvia, Gastropoda, Secernentea, Polychaeta, Monocotyldoneae, and Chanophyceae in this study. Statistical extrapolation method (SEM), statistical extrapolation method $_{acutechronicratio}$ ($SEM_{ACR}$) and assessment factor method (AFM) were used to calculate the ecological protective concentration based on qualitative and quantitative levels of taxonomic toxicity data. This study would be useful to establish the PERA for the protection of aquatic ecosystem in Korea.

• International Journal of Control, Automation, and Systems
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• v.3 no.spc2
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• pp.355-362
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• 2005

Deregulations and market practices in power industry have brought great challenges to the system planning area. In particular, they introduce a variety of uncertainties to system planning. New techniques are required to cope with such uncertainties. As a promising approach, probabilistic methods are attracting more and more attentions by system planners. In small signal stability analysis, generation control parameters play an important role in determining the stability margin. The objective of this paper is to investigate power system state matrix sensitivity characteristics with respect to system parameter uncertainties with analytical and numerical approaches and to identify those parameters have great impact on system eigenvalues, therefore, the system stability properties. Those identified parameter variations need to be investigated with priority. The results can be used to help Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) and Independent System Operators (ISOs) perform planning studies under the open access environment.