• 제목/요약/키워드: prior and posterior probabilities

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Noninformative priors for the reliability function of two-parameter exponential distribution

  • Kang, Sang-Gil;Kim, Dal-Ho;Lee, Woo-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.361-369
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we develop the reference and the matching priors for the reliability function of two-parameter exponential distribution. We derive the reference priors and the matching prior, and prove the propriety of joint posterior distribution under the general prior including the reference priors and the matching prior. Through the sim-ulation study, we show that the proposed reference priors match the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense.

Development of Matching Priors for P(X < Y) in Exprnential dlstributions

  • Lee, Gunhee
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • 제27권4호
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    • pp.421-433
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    • 1998
  • In this paper, matching priors for P(X < Y) are investigated when both distributions are exponential distributions. Two recent approaches for finding noninformative priors are introduced. The first one is the verger and Bernardo's forward and backward reference priors that maximizes the expected Kullback-Liebler Divergence between posterior and prior density. The second one is the matching prior identified by matching the one sided posterior credible interval with the frequentist's desired confidence level. The general forms of the second- order matching prior are presented so that the one sided posterior credible intervals agree with the frequentist's desired confidence levels up to O(n$^{-1}$ ). The frequentist coverage probabilities of confidence sets based on several noninformative priors are compared for small sample sizes via the Monte-Carlo simulation.

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Reference Priors for the Location Parameter in the Exponential Distributions

  • Kang, Sang-Gil;Kim, Dal-Ho;Lee, Woo-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.1409-1418
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we develop the reference priors for the common location parameter in two parameter exponential distributions. We derive the reference priors and prove the propriety of joint posterior distribution under the general prior including the reference priors. Through the simulation study, we show that the proposed reference prior matches the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense.

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Noninformative priors for the common scale parameter in Pareto distributions

  • Kang, Sang-Gil
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제21권2호
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    • pp.335-343
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we develop the reference priors for the common scale parameter in the nonregular Pareto distributions with unequal shape paramters. We derive the reference priors as noninformative prior and prove the propriety of joint posterior distribution under the general prior including the reference priors. Through the simulation study, we show that the proposed reference priors match the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense.

Noninformative priors for the common location parameter in half-normal distributions

  • Kang, Sang-Gil;Kim, Dal-Ho;Lee, Woo-Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제21권4호
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    • pp.757-764
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    • 2010
  • In this paper, we develop the reference priors for the common location parameter in the half-normal distributions with unequal scale paramters. We derive the reference priors as noninformative prior and prove the propriety of joint posterior distribution under the general prior including the reference priors. Through the simulation study, we show that the proposed reference priors match the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense.

On the Development of Probability Matching Priors for Non-regular Pareto Distribution

  • Lee, Woo Dong;Kang, Sang Gil;Cho, Jang Sik
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • 제10권2호
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    • pp.333-339
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    • 2003
  • In this paper, we develop the probability matching priors for the parameters of non-regular Pareto distribution. We prove the propriety of joint posterior distribution induced by probability matching priors. Through the simulation study, we show that the proposed probability matching Prior matches the coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense. A real data example is given.

Independent Testing in Marshall and Olkin's Bivariate Exponential Model Using Fractional Bayes Factor Under Bivariate Type I Censorship

  • Cho, Kil-Ho;Cho, Jang-Sik;Choi, Seung-Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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    • 제19권4호
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    • pp.1391-1396
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    • 2008
  • In this paper, we consider two components system which the lifetimes have Marshall and Olkin's bivariate exponential model with bivariate type I censored data. We propose a Bayesian independent test procedure for above model using fractional Bayes factor method by O'Hagan based on improper prior distributions. And we compute the fractional Bayes factor and the posterior probabilities for the hypotheses, respectively. Also we select a hypothesis which has the largest posterior probability. Finally a numerical example is given to illustrate our Bayesian testing procedure.

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Variational Expectation-Maximization Algorithm in Posterior Distribution of a Latent Dirichlet Allocation Model for Research Topic Analysis

  • Kim, Jong Nam
    • 한국멀티미디어학회논문지
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    • 제23권7호
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    • pp.883-890
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    • 2020
  • In this paper, we propose a variational expectation-maximization algorithm that computes posterior probabilities from Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model. The algorithm approximates the intractable posterior distribution of a document term matrix generated from a corpus made up by 50 papers. It approximates the posterior by searching the local optima using lower bound of the true posterior distribution. Moreover, it maximizes the lower bound of the log-likelihood of the true posterior by minimizing the relative entropy of the prior and the posterior distribution known as KL-Divergence. The experimental results indicate that documents clustered to image classification and segmentation are correlated at 0.79 while those clustered to object detection and image segmentation are highly correlated at 0.96. The proposed variational inference algorithm performs efficiently and faster than Gibbs sampling at a computational time of 0.029s.

A Bayes Rule for Determining the Number of Common Factors in Oblique Factor Model

  • Kim, Hea-Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.95-108
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    • 2000
  • Consider the oblique factor model X=Af+$\varepsilon$, with defining relation $\Sigma$$\Phi$Λ'+Ψ. This paper is concerned with suggesting an optimal Bayes criterion for determining the number of factors in the model, i.e. dimension of the vector f. The use of marginal likelihood as a method for calculating posterior probability of each model with given dimension is developed under a generalized conjugate prior. Then based on an appropriate loss function, a Bayes rule is developed by use of the posterior probabilities. It is shown that the approach is straightforward to specify distributionally and to imploement computationally, with output readily adopted for constructing required cirterion.

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베이지안기법에 의한 임무 신뢰도 예측 (Mission Reliability Prediction Using Bayesian Approach)

  • 전치혁;양희중;정의승
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제18권1호
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    • pp.71-78
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    • 1993
  • A Baysian approach is proposed is estimating the mission failure rates by criticalities. A mission failure which occurs according to a Poisson process with unknown rate is assumed to be classified as one of the criticality levels with an unknown probability. We employ the Gamma prior for the mission failure rate and the Dirichlet prior for the criticality probabilities. Posterior distributions of the mission rates by criticalities and predictive distributions of the time to failure are derived.

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