• 한국융합학회논문지
• /
• 제12권12호
• /
• pp.83-91
• /
• 2021

농산물은 기상, 기후 등의 변화로 인해 공급이 불규칙하고, 공급량이 10% 하락하면 가격이 50% 상승하는 가격 탄력성이 매우 높다. 이러한 농산물 가격의 변동으로 인해 소상인의 경매를 통해 생산자에게 대금의 안전성을 보장하고 있다. 그러나, 과잉생산으로 가격이 폭락할 경우, 생산자에 대한 보호 조치는 미비한 실정이다. 따라서, 본 논문에서는 농산물에 대한 가격을 인공지능 알고리즘으로 예측하여 전자거래 시스템에 활용할 수 있는 비즈니스 모델을 설계하였다. 이를 위해, 학습 패턴 쌍으로 모델을 학습시키고, ARIMA, SARIMA, RNN, CNN을 적용하여 예측 모델을 설계하였다. 최종적으로, 농산물 예측가격 데이터를 단기예측과 중기예측으로 분류하여 검증하였다. 검증 결과, 2018년 데이터를 기반으로 실제 가격과 예측 가격이 91.08%의 정확도를 나타냈다.

• 유통과학연구
• /
• 제10권9호
• /
• pp.5-11
• /
• 2012

Purpose - The objective of the paper is to explain both the price sensitivity of international tourists to South Korea and the price sensitivity of Korean tourists to international travel. The study examines long-run equilibrium relationships and Granger causal relationships between foreign exchange rates and inbound and outbound tourism demand in South Korea. Research design/ data / methodology - The study employs monthly time series data from January 1990 to September 2010. The paper examines the long-run equilibrium relationship using the Johansen cointegration test approach after unit root tests. The short-run Granger causality was tested using the vector error correction model with the Wald test. Results - Hypothesis 1 testing whether there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between exchange rates, inbound and outbound tourism demand is supported. Hypothesis 2 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in touristarrivals and expenditure is not supported. Hypothesis 3 testing whether exchange rates lead to a change in tourist departures and expenditure is supported. Conclusions - The findings of this study show that the impacts of tourism price competitiveness are changing quite significantly with regard to destination competitiveness. In other words, the elasticity of tourism price over tourism demand has been moderated.

• 한국기술혁신학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국기술혁신학회 2010년도 춘계 학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.3-14
• /
• 2010

Through time-series plots, we can see relatively stable trend of energy factor share and the decreasing trend of relative energy prices (to wages) in Korea. We can compromise these empirical facts with the following explanation: if elasticity of substitution between capital and energy is smaller than one(<1) in Korea, a change(decrease) in energy price can prevent income share of resources from rising in the process of economic growth. This is consistent with theoretical and empirical results that substitution between energy and capital is so difficult. From simple empirical analysis and limited information, we can carefully infer that, in the past in Korea, resource-specific innovation was performed widely. Finally, If we are to reduce the magnitude of "growth drag", we should decrease energy factor share. This can be accomplished by energy-augmenting technical progress in the case of elasticity of substitution less than 1 as in Korea.

• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
• /
• 제49권6호
• /
• pp.266-271
• /
• 2000

The electric power industries are moving from the conventional monopolistic or vertically integrated environments to deregulated and competitive environments, where each participant is concerned with profit maximization rather than system-wide costs minimization. Consequently, the conventional least-cost approaches for the generation resource schedule can not exactly handle real-world situations. This paper presents a game theory application for analyzing power transactions and market design in a deregulated energy marketplace, where the market participants determine the net profits through the optimal bidding strategies. The demand elasticity of the energy price is considered for the realistic modeling of the deregulated marketplace.

• 유통과학연구
• /
• 제13권11호
• /
• pp.39-46
• /
• 2015

Purpose - In Korea, there has been a recent trend that shows housing prices have risen rapidly following the International Monetary Fund crisis. The rapid rise in housing prices is spreading recognition of this as a factor in housing price volatility. In addition, this raises the expectations of housing prices in the future. These expectations are based on the assumption that a relationship exists between the current housing prices and expected housing prices in the real estate industry. By performing an empirical analysis on the validity of the claim that an increase in current housing prices can be correlated with expected housing prices, this study examines whether a long-term equilibrium relationship exists between expected housing prices and existing housing prices. If such a relationship exists, the recovery of equilibrium from disequilibrium is analyzed to derive related implications. Research design, data, and methodology - The relationship between current housing prices and expected housing prices was analyzed empirically using the Vector Error Correction Model. This model was applied to the co-integration test, the long-term equilibrium equation among variables, and the causality test. The housing prices used in the analysis were based on the National Housing Price Trend Survey released by Kookmin Bank. Additionally, the Index of Industrial Product and the Consumer Price Index were also used and were obtained from the Bank of Korea ECOS. The monthly data analyzed were from January 1987 to May 2015. Results - First, a long-term equilibrium relationship was established as one co-integration between current housing price distribution and expected housing prices. Second, the sign of the long-term equilibrium relationship variable was consistent with the theoretical sign, with the elasticity of housing price distribution to expected housing price, the industrial production, and the consumer price volatility revealed as 1.600, 0.104,and 0.092, respectively. This implies that the long-term effect of expected housing price volatility on housing price distribution is more significant than that of the industrial production and consumer price volatility. Third, the sign of the coefficient of the error correction term coincided with the theoretical sign. The absolute value of the coefficient of the correction term in the industrial production equation was 0.006, significantly larger than the coefficients for the expected housing price and the consumer price equation. In case of divergence from the long-term equilibrium relationship, the state of equilibrium will be restored through changes in the interest rate. Fourth, housing-price volatility was found to be causal to expected housing price, and was shown to be bi-directionally causal to industrial production. Conclusions - Based on the finding of this study, it is required to relieve the association between current housing price distribution and expected housing price by using property taxes and the loan-to-value policy to stabilize the housing market. Further, the relationship between housing price distribution and expected housing price can be examined and tested using a sophisticated methodology and policy variables.

• 한국학교보건학회지
• /
• 제27권2호
• /
• pp.59-68
• /
• 2014

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the intention of smoking cessation according to the level of cigarette price increase among adolescent smokers and to suggest a reasonable cigarette price to effectively reduce smoking prevalence. Methods: In 2007, subjects were selected from middle and high school students except twelfth graders using a complex sampling design which employs a two-stage cluster sampling method. In total, 1,001 current smokers were included in the study. To investigate the intention of smoking cessation according to the level of cigarette price increase, cumulative percentages of smoking cessation of every smoking-related subgroup were presented under the assumption that cigarette prices increased to 3,000, 4,000, 5,000, 6,000 or 10,000 won. Non-parametric statistical methods were used to compare the prices at which the subjects intended to quit smoking among the subgroups. Results: More than 50 percent of current smokers intended to quit smoking under the assumption that cigarette prices were doubled to 5,000 won. However, the effect of cigarette prices on smoking cessation was less sensitive when the prices exceeded 5,000 won. In addition, the median of cigarette prices at which the subjects intended to quit smoking was 5,000 won, excluding the subjects who smoked less than a cigarette a day. Conclusion: This study suggests that 5,000 won for one pack of cigarettes is a reasonable price to effectively encourage smoking cessation, considering the price elasticity. Therefore, this finding may be helpful in establishing a new cigarette price policy for anti-smoking.

• 대한교통학회지
• /
• 제30권2호
• /
• pp.7-20
• /
• 2012

가구의 지속적인 승용차 보유 증가로 인한 승용차 이용 증대는 교통부문에서의 온실가스 감축 목표 달성에 큰 장애요인으로 작용하고 있다. 특히 가구의 승용차 통행수요는 가구원수, 가구소득, 거주지역 등 다양한 가구특성에 의해 결정되기 때문에 이러한 가구특성 변수들이 승용차 통행수요에 미치는 영향, 즉, 가구의 승용차 통행수요에 대한 탄력성 분석이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 1995부터 2007년까지의 가계동향조사 자료를 활용하여 가상패널자료를 구축하고, 이 자료를 토대로 패널모형을 추정하여 가구의 승용차 통행수요에 대한 장 단기 가격 및 소득탄력성을 추정하였다. 실증분석결과, 승용차 통행수요의 단기 가격탄력성은 0.2974~0.4280, 장기 가격탄력성은 0.4087~0.6275로 분석되었고, 단기 소득탄력성은 0.3364~0.6281, 장기 소득탄력성은 0.7098로 분석되었다. 본 연구에서 도출된 승용차 통행수요에 대한 장 단기 가격 및 소득탄력성 추정결과는 향후 교통수요관리 정책의 효과를 분석하는 데 정량적 기초자료로서 활용될 수 있다고 판단된다.

• 한국유기농업학회지
• /
• 제10권1호
• /
• pp.19-34
• /
• 2002

This study is to analyze the demand for organic farming products . The demand for organic farming products is increasing rapidly but the study to analyze the demand system by the methods of econometrics is not tried at all because there is no any formal statistical data about the demand. Therefore, this study tries to estimate the raw statistical data to expect the demand trends of organic farming products in the future. To analyze the demand functions of organic farming products such as rice, bean, apple, grape, beef, and park, this study uses AIDS model by using several assumptions and estimates the price and income elasticities of the demands. The results demonstrate that the demands of organic farming products will be increased in the future and the prices of organic farming products will be the key factor in the demand, In 2004, the quantity demanded of the organic grape will account for 3% of total grape market. As a result, consumer's concerns about organic farming products will be high and the demand for organic farming products will be increased. Thus, the reasonable price system has a significant influence on the market of organic farming products.

• 전기학회논문지
• /
• 제66권8호
• /
• pp.1181-1186
• /
• 2017

The purpose of Demand Response is to reduce the cost of excessive resources and equipment by spontaneous load reductions at peak loads. Having enough power consumers participating in these schemes is key to achieving the goal. Demand Response Aggregator (DRA) is responsible for recruiting demand resources and managing them to participate in reducing the load. DRAs change the price elasticity of demand functions by providing incentives to demand response, thereby affecting price formation in the electricity market. In this paper, this process is modeled to analyze the relationship between DRA's strategic bidding and market outcomes and load reductions. It analyzes the results by applying to competition between DRAs, competition between DR and Gencos, and coexistence of DR load and non-DR load. It is noteworthy that we have found a phenomenon called the Balloon Effect.

• Computers and Concrete
• /
• 제22권1호
• /
• pp.117-122
• /
• 2018

The use of nanotechnology materials and applications in the construction industry should be considered for enhancing material properties. However, in this paper, the technical and economical assessment of applying silica nanoparticles for construction of concrete structure is studied. In order to obtain the equivalent material properties of the structure, the Mori-Tanaka model is used considering agglomeration of nanoparticles. The effect of using these nanoparticles on mechanical properties of concrete, such as the modulus of elasticity, compressive strength, as well as its indirect effect on armature percentage is investigated. Finally, the price of silica nanoparticles and its effect on the price increase of concrete structure is investigated. The results show that increasing the volume percent of silica nanoparticles up to 10% improves elastic modulus 111% and reduces amateur percentage up to 72%.