• 제목/요약/키워드: premiums′influence

검색결과 12건 처리시간 0.018초

미국 통화정책이 국내 금융시장 및 자금유출입에 미치는 영향: TVP-VAR 모형 분석 (The Impact of US Monetary Policy upon Korea's Financial Markets and Capital Flows: Based on TVP-VAR Analysis)

  • 서현덕;강태수
    • 경제분석
    • /
    • 제25권2호
    • /
    • pp.132-176
    • /
    • 2019
  • 미 연준은 2015년부터 통화정책의 정상화를 진행하고 있으며, 이는 우리 경제에 상당한 영향을 미칠 수 있다. 본 연구는 '시변모수 벡터자기회귀' (Time-varying parameter vector auto regression, TVP-VAR) 모형을 바탕으로 미국 통화정책이 우리나라 금융시장과 자본유출입에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 미국 통화정책의 변화는 신용스프레드, 페더럴펀드 금리(정책금리), 기간프리미엄 등 세 변수를 통해 파악하였다. 국내 변수로는 금융시장 지표(장기금리, 원/달러 환율, 신용스프레드)와 국제수지표 금융계정을 분석하였다. 미국 정책금리 충격은 2004~2006년 금리인상기에는 국내 금융시장에 불안을 야기 시키고 외국인 국내 투자와 내국인 해외투자의 동시 감소를 초래하였으나 2015년 이후에는 그 효과가 제한적인 것으로 드러났다. 미국 기간프리미엄의 영향력은 양적완화 (Quantitative Easing, QE) 정책 실시 이후 확대되었다. 미국 신용스프레드가 국내 금융시장과 자본유출입에 미친 충격은 글로벌 금융위기 이후 크게 확대된 것으로 나타났다. 미국 통화정책 정상화의 파급효과 예측을 위한 시뮬레이션을 실시한 결과 정책금리 인상 자체보다 이로 인해 금융시장이 불안해질 때 발생할 수 있는 신용스프레드의 상승이 국내 금융시장에 더 큰 부작용을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 자금유출입 측면에서 미국 통화정책 정상화는 외국인 투자자금의 국외이탈 압력 증가로 이어지나, 내국인의 해외투자자금이 국내로 환수되면서 이를 상쇄한다.

CT 보험급여 전후의 CT 및 MRI검사의 이용량과 수익성 변화 (Analysis of utilization and profit for CT and MRI after implementation of insurance coverage for CT)

  • 서종록;유승흠;전기홍;남정모
    • 한국병원경영학회지
    • /
    • 제2권1호
    • /
    • pp.1-21
    • /
    • 1997
  • In order to analyze the shifts in the volume and profits of Computed Tomography(CT) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging(MRI) utilization for a year before and after the implementation of insurance coverage for CT, this study has been undertaken examining CT and MRI cost data from 'Y' University Hospital situated in Seoul, Korea. Following are the results of this study: 1. The medical insurance payment for CT, implemented on January 1, 1996, increased CT utilization from January 1996 to April 1996 due to low insurance premiums: however, from May 1996 the number of CT cases significantly decreased as a result of strengthened medical cost reviews and the new 'Detailed standards for approval of CT' announced near the end of April 1996 by the insurer. 2. Since the implementation of insurance coverage for CT, CT fee reduction rates for reimbursements by the insurer to the hospital were 50% and 40% for January and February, respectively, and 31% and 15% for March and April. A significant point in the lowering of the reduction rate was reached in May at 11%; furthermore, since June the reduction rate fell below the average reduction rate for reimbursements for all procedures. If the 'Detailed standards for approval of CT' had been announced before the implementation of insurance coverage for CT, CT utilization would not have been so high due to the need to meet those 'standards'. In addition, loss of hospital profits resulting from the reduction for reimbursements would not have occurred. 3. The shifts in MRI utilization showed that there was no particular change with the beginning of insurance coverage for CT, and the introduction of the 'Detailed standards for approval of CT' made MRI utilization increase because MRI is free of restrictions imposed by the insurer. 4. The relationship between CT utilization and MRI utilization showed that they were supplementary to each other before insurance coverage for CT, but that CT was substituted for MRI because of strengthened medical cost reviews after t~e beginning of insurance coverage for CT. 5. The shifts in volume by patient characteristics showed that the number of inappropriate case patients, according to the insurer's "Standards for approval", decreased more than the number of appropriate case patients after the introduction of insurance coverage for CT. Therefore, the health insurance fee schemes for CT have influenced patient care. 6. The shifts in profits from CT utilization showed a net profit decrease of 31.6%. In order to match the pre-coverage profit level, 5,471 more cases would need to be seen and productivity would need to be increased by 32.7%. This profit decrease resulted from a decrease of CT utilization and low reimbursements. With insurance coverage, net profits from CT were 24.4%, and a margin of safety ratio was 39.6%. Because of the net profits and margin of safety ratio, CT utilization fees for insured appropriate cases could not be considered inappropriate. 7. The shifts in profits from MRI utilization before and after the introduction of CT coverage showed that in order to match pre-CT coverage profit levels, 2,011 more cases would need to be seen and productivity would need to be increased by 9.2%. The reasons for needing to increase the number of cases and productivity result from cost burdens created by adding new MRI units. But with CT coverage already begun, MRI utilization increased. Combined with a minor increase in the MRI fee schedule, MRI utilization showed a net profit increase of 18.5%. Net profits of 62.8% and a 'margin of safety ratio' of 43.1% for MRI utilization showed that the hospital relied on this non-covered procedure for profits. 8. The shifts in profits from CT and MRI utilization showed the net profits from CT decreased by 2.33billion Won while the net profits from MRI increased by 815.7million Won. Overall, these two together showed a net profit decrease of 1.51billion Won. The shifts in utilization showed a functional substitutionary relationship, but the shifts in profits did not show a substitutionary relationship. From these results, We can conclude that if insurance is to be expanded to include previously uncovered procedures using expensive medical equipment, detailed standards should be prepared in advance. The decrease in profits from the shifts in coverage and changes in fees is a difficult burden that should be shared, not carried by the hospital alone. Also, a new or improved fee schedule system should include revised standards between items listed and the appropriateness of the fee schedule should constantly be ensured. This study focused on one university hospital in Seoul and is therefore limited in general applicability. But it is valuable for considering current issues and problems, such as the influence of CT coverage on hospital management. Future studies will hopefully expand the scope of the issues considered here.

  • PDF