• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.55 no.10
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• pp.723-736
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• 2022

In this study, monthly precipitation forecasting models that can predict up to 12 months in advance were constructed for the Geum River basin, and two statistical techniques, multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), were applied to the model construction. As predictor candidates, a total of 47 climate indices were used, including 39 global climate patterns provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and 8 meteorological factors for the basin. Forecast models were constructed by using climate indices with high correlation by analyzing the teleconnection between the monthly precipitation and each climate index for the past 40 years based on the forecast month. In the goodness-of-fit test results for the average value of forecasts of each month for 1991 to 2021, the MLR models showed -3.3 to -0.1% for the percent bias (PBIAS), 0.45 to 0.50 for the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and 0.69 to 0.70 for the Pearson correlation coefficient (r), whereas, the ANN models showed PBIAS -5.0~+0.5%, NSE 0.35~0.47, and r 0.64~0.70. The mean values predicted by the MLR models were found to be closer to the observation than the ANN models. The probability of including observations within the forecast range for each month was 57.5 to 83.6% (average 72.9%) for the MLR models, and 71.5 to 88.7% (average 81.1%) for the ANN models, indicating that the ANN models showed better results. The tercile probability by month was 25.9 to 41.9% (average 34.6%) for the MLR models, and 30.3 to 39.1% (average 34.7%) for the ANN models. Both models showed long-term predictability of monthly precipitation with an average of 33.3% or more in tercile probability. In conclusion, the difference in predictability between the two models was found to be relatively small. However, when judging from the hit rate for the prediction range or the tercile probability, the monthly deviation for predictability was found to be relatively small for the ANN models.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society for Agricultural Machinery Conference
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• 2017.04a
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• pp.45-45
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• 2017

On-site monitoring of vegetable growth parameters, such as leaf length, leaf area, and fresh weight, in an agricultural field can provide useful information for farmers to establish farm management strategies suitable for optimum production of vegetables. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) are currently gaining a growing interest for agricultural applications. This study reports on validation testing of previously developed vegetable growth estimation models based on UAV-based RGB images for white radish and Chinese cabbage. Specific objective was to investigate the potential of the UAV-based RGB camera system for effectively quantifying temporal and spatial variability in the growth status of white radish and Chinese cabbage in a field. RGB images were acquired based on an automated flight mission with a multi-rotor UAV equipped with a low-cost RGB camera while automatically tracking on a predefined path. The acquired images were initially geo-located based on the log data of flight information saved into the UAV, and then mosaicked using a commerical image processing software. Otsu threshold-based crop coverage and DSM-based crop height were used as two predictor variables of the previously developed multiple linear regression models to estimate growth parameters of vegetables. The predictive capabilities of the UAV sensing system for estimating the growth parameters of the two vegetables were evaluated quantitatively by comparing to ground truth data. There were highly linear relationships between the actual and estimated leaf lengths, widths, and fresh weights, showing coefficients of determination up to 0.7. However, there were differences in slope between the ground truth and estimated values lower than 0.5, thereby requiring the use of a site-specific normalization method.

• KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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• v.36 no.2
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• pp.97-106
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• 1991

Two dimensional non-parametric model using daily mean temperature and daylength as predictor variables was established and daily developmental rates (DVR) for the period of seedling emergence to heading were estimated for 26 rice cultivars by using data from field direct seeding dates and short-day treatments experiment carried out at experimental farm of Seoul National University in 1990. Three existing parametric models were tested for the comparision of predictability with non-parametric model. The non-parametric model was found to be superior to parametric models in predicting heading date. The developmetal indice(DVI) at heading date, cummulative DVR's from seedling emergence showed 0.5 to 2.2 percent of coefficient of variations. The non-parametric model revealed errors of 0 to three days in 11 varieties when applied to data independent of those used in estimating DVR.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.253-280
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• 2010

A new prediction model is derived for the uplift capacity of suction caissons using a hybrid method coupling genetic programming (GP) and simulated annealing (SA), called GP/SA. The predictor variables included in the analysis are the aspect ratio of caisson, shear strength of clayey soil, load point of application, load inclination angle, soil permeability, and loading rate. The proposed model is developed based on well established and widely dispersed experimental results gathered from the literature. To verify the applicability of the proposed model, it is employed to estimate the uplift capacity of parts of the test results that are not included in the modeling process. Traditional GP and multiple regression analyses are performed to benchmark the derived model. The external validation of the GP/SA and GP models was further verified using several statistical criteria recommended by researchers. Contributions of the parameters affecting the uplift capacity are evaluated through a sensitivity analysis. A subsequent parametric analysis is carried out and the obtained trends are confirmed with some previous studies. Based on the results, the GP/SA-based solution is effectively capable of estimating the horizontal, vertical and inclined uplift capacity of suction caissons. Furthermore, the GP/SA model provides a better prediction performance than the GP, regression and different models found in the literature. The proposed simplified formulation can reliably be employed for the pre-design of suction caissons. It may be also used as a quick check on solutions developed by more time consuming and in-depth deterministic analyses.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.38 no.3
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• pp.56-63
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• 2015

Several fields of science have demanded large-scale workflow support, which requires thousands of CPU cores or more. In order to support such large-scale scientific workflows, high capacity parallel systems such as supercomputers are widely used. In order to increase the utilization of these systems, most schedulers use backfilling policy: Small jobs are moved ahead to fill in holes in the schedule when large jobs do not delay. Since an estimate of the runtime is necessary for backfilling, most parallel systems use user's estimated runtime. However, it is found to be extremely inaccurate because users overestimate their jobs. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a novel system for the runtime prediction based on workload-aware clustering with the goal of improving prediction performance. The proposed method for runtime prediction of parallel applications consists of three main phases. First, a feature selection based on factor analysis is performed to identify important input features. Then, it performs a clustering analysis of history data based on self-organizing map which is followed by hierarchical clustering for finding the clustering boundaries from the weight vectors. Finally, prediction models are constructed using support vector regression with the clustered workload data. Multiple prediction models for each clustered data pattern can reduce the error rate compared with a single model for the whole data pattern. In the experiments, we use workload logs on parallel systems (i.e., iPSC, LANL-CM5, SDSC-Par95, SDSC-Par96, and CTC-SP2) to evaluate the effectiveness of our approach. Comparing with other techniques, experimental results show that the proposed method improves the accuracy up to 69.08%.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• v.2 no.4
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• pp.357-376
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• 2011

Ground motion models predict the mean and standard deviation of the logarithm of spectral acceleration, as a function of predictor variables such as earthquake magnitude, distance and site condition. Such models have been developed for a variety of seismic environments throughout the world. Some calculations, such as the Conditional Mean Spectrum calculation, use this information but additionally require knowledge of correlation coefficients between logarithmic spectral acceleration values at multiple periods. Such correlation predictions have, to date, been developed primarily from data recorded in the Western United States from active shallow crustal earthquakes. This paper describes results from a study of spectral acceleration correlations from Japanese earthquake ground motion data that includes both crustal and subduction zone earthquakes. Comparisons are made between estimated correlations for Japanese response spectral ordinates and correlation estimates developed from Western United States ground motion data. The effect of ground motion model, earthquake source mechanism, seismic zone, site conditions, and source to site distance on estimated correlations is evaluated and discussed. Confidence intervals on these correlation estimates are introduced, to aid in identifying statistically significant differences in correlations among the factors considered. Observed general trends in correlation are similar to previous studies, with the exception of correlation of spectral accelerations between orthogonal components, which is seen to be higher here than previously observed. Some differences in correlations between earthquake source zones and earthquake mechanisms are observed, and so tables of correlations coefficients for each specific case are provided.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.39 no.6
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• pp.548-565
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• 2023

Armillaria root disease affects forests around the world. It occurs in many habitats and causes losses in the infested stands. Weather conditions are important factors for growth and development of Armillaria species. Yet, the relation between occurrence of damage caused by Armillaria disease and weather variables are still poorly understood. Thus, we used generalized linear mixed models to determine the relationship between weather conditions of current and previous year (temperature, precipitation and their deviation from long-term averages, air humidity and soil temperature) and the incidence of Armillaria-induced damage in young (up to 20 years old) and older (over 20 years old) coniferous stands in selected forest districts across Poland. We used unique data, gathered over the course of 23 years (1987-2009) on tree damage incidence from Armillaria root disease and meteorological parameters from the 24-year period (1986-2009) to reflect the dynamics of damage occurrence and weather conditions. Weather parameters were better predictors of damage caused by Armillaria disease in younger stands than in older ones. The strongest predictor was soil temperature, especially that of the previous year growing season and the current year spring. We found that temperature and precipitation of different seasons in previous year had more pronounced effect on the young stand area affected by Armillaria. Each stand's age class was characterized by a different set of meteorological parameters that explained the area of disease occurrence. Moreover, forest district was included in all models and thus, was an important variable in explaining the stand area affected by Armillaria.

• Journal of Chest Surgery
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• v.57 no.2
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• pp.184-194
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• 2024

Background: Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are widely employed as a therapeutic option for end-stage heart failure. We evaluated the outcomes associated with centrifugal-flow LVAD implantation, comparing 2 device models: the Heartmate 3 (HM3) and the Heartware Ventricular Assist Device (HVAD). Methods: Data were collected from patients who underwent LVAD implantation between June 1, 2015 and December 31, 2022. We analyzed overall survival, first rehospitalization, and early, late, and LVAD-related complications. Results: In total, 74 patients underwent LVAD implantation, with 42 receiving the HM3 and 32 the HVAD. A mild Interagency Registry for Mechanically Assisted Circulatory Support score was more common among HM3 than HVAD recipients (p=0.006), and patients receiving the HM3 exhibited lower rates of preoperative ventilator use (p=0.010) and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (p=0.039). The overall early mortality rate was 5.4% (4 of 74 patients), with no significant difference between groups. Regarding early right ventricular (RV) failure, HM3 implantation was associated with a lower rate (13 of 42 [31.0%]) than HVAD implantation (18 of 32 [56.2%], p=0.051). The median rehospitalization-free period was longer for HM3 recipients (16.9 months) than HVAD recipients (5.3 months, p=0.013). Furthermore, HM3 recipients displayed a lower incidence of late hemorrhagic stroke (p=0.016). In the multivariable analysis, preoperative use of continuous renal replacement therapy (odds ratio, 22.31; p=0.002) was the only significant predictor of postoperative RV failure. Conclusion: The LVAD models (HM3 and HVAD) demonstrated comparable overall survival rates. However, the HM3 was associated with a lower risk of late hemorrhagic stroke.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Integrative Medicine
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.155-166
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• 2024

Purpose : This study aims to identify key factors for predicting dropout risk at the university level and to provide a foundation for policy development aimed at dropout prevention. This study explores the optimal machine learning algorithm by comparing the performance of various algorithms using data on college students' dropout risks. Methods : We collected data on factors influencing dropout risk and propensity were collected from N University. The collected data were applied to several machine learning algorithms, including random forest, decision tree, artificial neural network, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) classification, and Naive Bayes. The performance of these models was compared and evaluated, with a focus on predictive validity and the identification of significant dropout factors through the information gain index of machine learning. Results : The binary logistic regression analysis showed that the year of the program, department, grades, and year of entry had a statistically significant effect on the dropout risk. The performance of each machine learning algorithm showed that random forest performed the best. The results showed that the relative importance of the predictor variables was highest for department, age, grade, and residence, in the order of whether or not they matched the school location. Conclusion : Machine learning-based prediction of dropout risk focuses on the early identification of students at risk. The types and causes of dropout crises vary significantly among students. It is important to identify the types and causes of dropout crises so that appropriate actions and support can be taken to remove risk factors and increase protective factors. The relative importance of the factors affecting dropout risk found in this study will help guide educational prescriptions for preventing college student dropout.

• International Journal of Human Ecology
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• v.13 no.2
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• pp.1-13
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• 2012

This study examined the effects of academic self-concept (internal factor) and maternal parenting behaviors (external factor) on academic delay of gratification (ADOG). Additionally, models predicting ADOG were compared between Korean and Malaysian children. The participants of this study were 100 Korean third graders and their mothers, and 100 Malaysian third graders and their mothers. The children completed the modified versions of the Academic Delay of Gratification Scale for Children, and Academic Self-Concept Questionnaire. The mothers completed the Parenting Attitude Test. Pearson's correlation tests, independent t-tests, and multiple regression analyses were conducted to test the research hypotheses. The results showed that Korean children reported higher ADOG and academic self-concept scores than that of Malaysian children. Moreover, academic self-concept was found to have a significant positive effect on ADOG among both Korean and Malaysian children. There was no significant gender difference in ADOG for both Korean and Malaysian children. However, the effects of maternal parenting behaviors on ADOG were only detected among the Malaysian children, particularly on Achievement Press. That is, only for the Malaysian children, maternal pressure about academic achievement was found to have a significant positive effect on ADOG. In conclusion, only academic self-concept was found to be a significant predictor explaining the variance in ADOG among Korean children. On the other hand, academic self-concept and maternal parenting behaviors were shown as significant predictors explaining the variance in ADOG among Malaysian children.