• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive inference

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Likelihood-Based Inference of Random Effects and Application in Logistic Regression (우도에 기반한 임의효과에 대한 추론과 로지스틱 회귀모형에서의 응용)

  • Kim, Gwangsu
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.269-279
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    • 2015
  • This paper considers inferences of random effects. We show that the proposed confidence distribution (CD) performs well in logistic regression for random intercepts with small samples. Real data analyses are also done to identify the subject effects clearly.

Neuro-fuzzy model of concrete exposed to various regimes combined with De-icing salts

  • Ghazy, Ahmed;Bassuoni, Mohamed. T.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.649-659
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    • 2018
  • Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) can be efficient in modelling non-linear, complex and ambiguous behavior of cement-based materials undergoing combined damage factors of different forms (physical and chemical). The current work investigates the use of ANFIS to model the behavior (time of failure (TF)) of a wide range of concrete mixtures made with different types of cement (ordinary and portland limestone cement (PLC)) without or with supplementary cementitious materials (SCMs: fly ash and nanosilica) under various exposure regimes with the most widely used chloride-based de-icing salts (individual and combined). The results show that predictions of the ANFIS model were rational and accurate, with marginal errors not exceeding 3%. In addition, sensitivity analyses of physical penetrability (magnitude of intruding chloride) of concrete, amount of aluminate and interground limestone in cement and content of portlandite in the binder showed that the predictive trends of the model had good agreement with experimental results. Thus, this model may be reliably used to project the deterioration of customized concrete mixtures exposed to such aggressive conditions.

Technology Trends of Smart Abnormal Detection and Diagnosis System for Gas and Hydrogen Facilities (가스·수소 시설의 스마트 이상감지 및 진단 시스템 기술동향)

  • Park, Myeongnam;Kim, Byungkwon;Hong, Gi Hoon;Shin, Dongil
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.41-57
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    • 2022
  • The global demand for carbon neutrality in response to climate change is in a situation where it is necessary to prepare countermeasures for carbon trade barriers for some countries, including Korea, which is classified as an export-led economic structure and greenhouse gas exporter. Therefore, digital transformation, which is one of the predictable ways for the carbon-neutral transition model to be applied, should be introduced early. By applying digital technology to industrial gas manufacturing facilities used in one of the major industries, high-tech manufacturing industry, and hydrogen gas facilities, which are emerging as eco-friendly energy, abnormal detection, and diagnosis services are provided with cloud-based predictive diagnosis monitoring technology including operating knowledge. Here are the trends. Small and medium-sized companies that are in the blind spot of carbon-neutral implementation by confirming the direction of abnormal diagnosis predictive monitoring through optimization, augmented reality technology, IoT and AI knowledge inference, etc., rather than simply monitoring real-time facility status It can be seen that it is possible to disseminate technologies such as consensus knowledge in the engineering domain and predictive diagnostic monitoring that match the economic feasibility and efficiency of the technology. It is hoped that it will be used as a way to seek countermeasures against carbon emission trade barriers based on the highest level of ICT technology.

Mobile Context Based User Behavior Pattern Inference and Restaurant Recommendation Model (모바일 컨텍스트 기반 사용자 행동패턴 추론과 음식점 추천 모델)

  • Ahn, Byung-Ik;Jung, Ku-Imm;Choi, Hae-Lim
    • Journal of Digital Contents Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.535-542
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    • 2017
  • The ubiquitous computing made it happen to easily take cognizance of context, which includes user's location, status, behavior patterns and surrounding places. And it allows providing the catered service, designed to improve the quality and the interaction between the provider and its customers. The personalized recommendation service needs to obtain logical reasoning to interpret the context information based on user's interests. We researched a model that connects to the practical value to users for their daily life; information about restaurants, based on several mobile contexts that conveys the weather, time, day and location information. We also have made various approaches including the accurate rating data review, the equation of Naïve Bayes to infer user's behavior-patterns, and the recommendable places pre-selected by preference predictive algorithm. This paper joins a vibrant conversation to demonstrate the excellence of this approach that may prevail other previous rating method systems.

The Design of Adaptive Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Networks Architectures Based on Fuzzy Neural Networks and Self-Organizing Networks (퍼지뉴럴 네트워크와 자기구성 네트워크에 기초한 적응 퍼지 다항식 뉴럴네트워크 구조의 설계)

  • Park, Byeong-Jun;Oh, Sung-Kwun;Jang, Sung-Whan
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.126-135
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    • 2002
  • The study is concerned with an approach to the design of new architectures of fuzzy neural networks and the discussion of comprehensive design methodology supporting their development. We propose an Adaptive Fuzzy Polynomial Neural Networks(APFNN) based on Fuzzy Neural Networks(FNN) and Self-organizing Networks(SON) for model identification of complex and nonlinear systems. The proposed AFPNN is generated from the mutually combined structure of both FNN and SON. The one and the other are considered as the premise and the consequence part of AFPNN, respectively. As the premise structure of AFPNN, FNN uses both the simplified fuzzy inference and error back-propagation teaming rule. The parameters of FNN are refined(optimized) using genetic algorithms(GAs). As the consequence structure of AFPNN, SON is realized by a polynomial type of mapping(linear, quadratic and modified quadratic) between input and output variables. In this study, we introduce two kinds of AFPNN architectures, namely the basic and the modified one. The basic and the modified architectures depend on the number of input variables and the order of polynomial in each layer of consequence structure. Owing to the specific features of two combined architectures, it is possible to consider the nonlinear characteristics of process system and to obtain the better output performance with superb predictive ability. The availability and feasibility of the AFPNN are discussed and illustrated with the aid of two representative numerical examples. The results show that the proposed AFPNN can produce the model with higher accuracy and predictive ability than any other method presented previously.

A Study of Safety Accident Prediction Model (Focusing on Military Traffic Accident Cases) (안전사고 예측모형 개발 방안에 관한 연구(군 교통사고 사례를 중심으로))

  • Ki, Jae-Sug;Hong, Myeong-Gi
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.427-441
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: This study proposes a method for developing a model that predicts the probability of traffic accidents in advance to prevent the most frequent traffic accidents in the military. Method: For this purpose, CRISP-DM (Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining) was applied in this study. The CRISP-DM process consists of 6 stages, and each stage is not unidirectional like the Waterfall Model, but improves the level of completeness through feedback between stages. Results: As a result of modeling the same data set as the previously constructed accident investigation data for the entire group, when the classification criterion was 0.5, Significant results were derived from the accuracy, specificity, sensitivity, and AUC of the model for predicting traffic accidents. Conclusion: In the process of designing the prediction model, it was confirmed that it was difficult to obtain a meaningful prediction value due to the lack of data. The methodology for designing a predictive model using the data set was proposed by reorganizing and expanding a data set capable of rational inference to solve the data shortage.

Implementing an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Model for Emotion Prediction Based on Heart Rate Variability(HRV) (심박변이도를 이용한 적응적 뉴로 퍼지 감정예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Sung Soo;Lee, Kun Chang
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.17 no.1
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    • pp.239-247
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    • 2019
  • An accurate prediction of emotion is a very important issue for the sake of patient-centered medical device development and emotion-related psychology fields. Although there have been many studies on emotion prediction, no studies have applied the heart rate variability and neuro-fuzzy approach to emotion prediction. We propose ANFEP(Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy System for Emotion Prediction) HRV. The ANFEP bases its core functions on an ANFIS(Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System) which integrates neural networks with fuzzy systems as a vehicle for training predictive models. To prove the proposed model, 50 participants were invited to join the experiment and Heart rate variability was obtained and used to input the ANFEP model. The ANFEP model with STDRR and RMSSD as inputs and two membership functions per input variable showed the best results. The result out of applying the ANFEP to the HRV metrics proved to be significantly robust when compared with benchmarking methods like linear regression, support vector regression, neural network, and random forest. The results show that reliable prediction of emotion is possible with less input and it is necessary to develop a more accurate and reliable emotion recognition system.

Fault Diagnosis of Induction Motor using Linear Predictive Coding and Deep Neural Network (LPC와 DNN을 결합한 유도전동기 고장진단)

  • Ryu, Jin Won;Park, Min Su;Kim, Nam Kyu;Chong, Ui Pil;Lee, Jung Chul
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.20 no.11
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    • pp.1811-1819
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    • 2017
  • As the induction motor is the core production equipment of the industry, it is necessary to construct a fault prediction and diagnosis system through continuous monitoring. Many researches have been conducted on motor fault diagnosis algorithm based on signal processing techniques using Fourier transform, neural networks, and fuzzy inference techniques. In this paper, we propose a fault diagnosis method of induction motor using LPC and DNN. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, the fault diagnosis was carried out using the vibration data of the induction motor in steady state and simulated various fault conditions. Experimental results show that the learning time of our proposed method and the conventional spectrum+DNN method is 139 seconds and 974 seconds each executed on the experimental PC, and our method reduces execution time by 1/8 compared with conventional method. And the success rate of the proposed method is 98.08%, which is similar to 99.54% of the conventional method.

A Study on Subjective Assessment of Knit Fabric by ANFIS

  • Ju Jeong-Ah;Ryu Hyo-Seon
    • Fibers and Polymers
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.203-212
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    • 2006
  • The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of the structural properties of plain knit fabrics on the subjective perception of textures, sensibilities, and preference among consumers. This study, then, aimed to provide useful information with respect to planning and designing knitted fabrics by predicting the subjective characteristics analyzed according to their structural properties. For this purpose, we employed statistical analysis tools, such as factor and regression analysis and an adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system(ANFIS), thereby combining the merits of fuzzy and neural networks and presupposing a non-linear relationship. Through factor analysis, we also categorized the subjective textures into 'roughness', 'softness', 'bulkiness' and 'stretch-ability' with R2=70.32%: and categorized the sensibilities into 'Stable/Neat', 'Natural/Comfortable' and 'Feminine/Elegant' with R2=68.12%. We analyzed subjective textures, sensibilities, and preference with ANFIS, assuming non-linear relationships; consequently, we were able to generate three or four fuzzy rules using wool/rayon fiber content and loop length as input data. The textures of roughness and softness exhibited a linear relationship, but other subjective characteristics demonstrated a non-linear input-output relationship. Compared with linear regression analysis, the ANFIS exhibited had higher predictive power with respect to predicting subjective characteristics.

Fuzzy inference systems based prediction of engineering properties of two-stage concrete

  • Najjar, Manal F.;Nehdi, Moncef L.;Azabi, Tareq M.;Soliman, Ahmed M.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.133-142
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    • 2017
  • Two-stage concrete (TSC), also known as pre-placed aggregate concrete, is characterized by its unique placement technique, whereby the coarse aggregate is first placed in the formwork, then injected with a special grout. Despite its superior sustainability and technical features, TSC has remained a basic concrete technology without much use of modern chemical admixtures, new binders, fiber reinforcement or other emerging additions. In the present study, an experimental database for TSC was built. Different types of cementitious binders (single, binary, and ternary) comprising ordinary portland cement, fly ash, silica fume, and metakaolin were used to produce the various TSC mixtures. Different dosages of steel fibres having different lengths were also incorporated to enhance the mechanical properties of TSC. The database thus created was used to develop fuzzy logic models as predictive tools for the grout flowability and mechanical properties of TSC mixtures. The performance of the developed models was evaluated using statistical parameters and error analyses. The results indicate that the fuzzy logic models thus developed can be powerful tools for predicting the TSC grout flowability and mechanical properties and a useful aid for the design of TSC mixtures.