• Title/Summary/Keyword: predictive analysis

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A Longitudinal Validation Study of the Korean Version of PCL-5(Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5) (PCL-5(DSM-5 기준 외상 후 스트레스 장애 체크리스트) 한국판 종단 타당화 연구)

  • Lee, DongHun;Lee, DeokHee;Kim, SungHyun;Jung, DaSong
    • Korean Journal of Culture and Social Issue
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.187-217
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    • 2022
  • The aim of this study is to examine the psychometric properties of the Korean version of the Post-traumatic Stress Disorder Checklist for DSM-5(PCL-5). For this purpose, online surveys were conducted for two times with a one year interval using the data from 1,077 Korean adults at time 1, and 563 Korean adults at time 2. First, from the result of the confirmatory factor analysis, comparing the model fit of the 1, 4, 6, and 7-factor model, the 4, 6, and 7-factor model showed a acceptable fit, and the best fit was seen in the order of the 7, 6, 4-factor model. Second, the internal consistency, omega coefficient, construct validity, average variance extracted, and test-retest reliability results were all satisfactory.. Third, a correlation analysis with the K-PC-PTSD-5 and the sub-factors of BSI-18 was conducted to check the validity of the Korean Version of PCL-5. As a result, a positive correlation was seen with both K-PC-PTSD-5 and BSI-18. Fourth, a hierarchical multiple regression was performed to examine whether the Korean Version of PCL-5 predicts future PTSD, depression, anxiety, and somatization. As a result, the Korean Version of PCL-5 measured at time 1 significantly predicted PTSD, depression, anxiety, and somatization symptoms at time 2. Fifth, by analyzing the ROC curve, the discriminant power of PCL-5 for screening PTSD symptom groups was confirmed, and the best cut-off score was suggested. As a result of the longitudinal validation of Korean version of PCL-5, it was found that this scale is a reliable and valid measure for Korean adults. By looking into the predictive validity of the scale, it was found that the Korean version of PCL-5 can predict not only PTSD symptoms but also PTSD-related symptoms such as depression, anxiety, and somatization. Also, this study differs from previous validation studies measuring PTSD symptoms in that it suggested a cut-off score to help differentiate PTSD symptom groups.

Assessment of Additional MRI-Detected Breast Lesions Using the Quantitative Analysis of Contrast-Enhanced Ultrasound Scans and Its Comparability with Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI Findings of the Breast (유방자기공명영상에서 추가적으로 발견된 유방 병소에 대한 조영증강 초음파의 정량적 분석을 통한 진단 능력 평가와 동적 조영증강 유방 자기공명영상 결과와의 비교)

  • Sei Young Lee;Ok Hee Woo;Hye Seon Shin;Sung Eun Song;Kyu Ran Cho;Bo Kyoung Seo;Soon Young Hwang
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.82 no.4
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    • pp.889-902
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    • 2021
  • Purpose To assess the diagnostic performance of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) for additional MR-detected enhancing lesions and to determine whether or not kinetic pattern results comparable to dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) of the breast can be obtained using the quantitative analysis of CEUS. Materials and Methods In this single-center prospective study, a total of 71 additional MR-detected breast lesions were included. CEUS examination was performed, and lesions were categorized according to the Breast Imaging-Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS). The sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic accuracy of CEUS were calculated by comparing the BI-RADS category to the final pathology results. The degree of agreement between CEUS and DCE-MRI kinetic patterns was evaluated using weighted kappa. Results On CEUS, 46 lesions were assigned as BI-RADS category 4B, 4C, or 5, while 25 lesions category 3 or 4A. The diagnostic performance of CEUS for enhancing lesions on DCE-MRI was excellent, with 84.9% sensitivity, 94.4% specificity, and 97.8% positive predictive value. A total of 57/71 (80%) lesions had correlating kinetic patterns and showed good agreement (weighted kappa = 0.66) between CEUS and DCE-MRI. Benign lesions showed excellent agreement (weighted kappa = 0.84), and invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) showed good agreement (weighted kappa = 0.69). Conclusion The diagnostic performance of CEUS for additional MR-detected breast lesions was excellent. Accurate kinetic pattern assessment, fairly comparable to DCE-MRI, can be obtained for benign and IDC lesions using CEUS.

Radiomics Analysis of Gray-Scale Ultrasonographic Images of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma > 1 cm: Potential Biomarker for the Prediction of Lymph Node Metastasis (Radiomics를 이용한 1 cm 이상의 갑상선 유두암의 초음파 영상 분석: 림프절 전이 예측을 위한 잠재적인 바이오마커)

  • Hyun Jung Chung;Kyunghwa Han;Eunjung Lee;Jung Hyun Yoon;Vivian Youngjean Park;Minah Lee;Eun Cho;Jin Young Kwak
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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    • v.84 no.1
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    • pp.185-196
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    • 2023
  • Purpose This study aimed to investigate radiomics analysis of ultrasonographic images to develop a potential biomarker for predicting lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) patients. Materials and Methods This study included 431 PTC patients from August 2013 to May 2014 and classified them into the training and validation sets. A total of 730 radiomics features, including texture matrices of gray-level co-occurrence matrix and gray-level run-length matrix and single-level discrete two-dimensional wavelet transform and other functions, were obtained. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method was used for selecting the most predictive features in the training data set. Results Lymph node metastasis was associated with the radiomics score (p < 0.001). It was also associated with other clinical variables such as young age (p = 0.007) and large tumor size (p = 0.007). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.687 (95% confidence interval: 0.616-0.759) for the training set and 0.650 (95% confidence interval: 0.575-0.726) for the validation set. Conclusion This study showed the potential of ultrasonography-based radiomics to predict cervical lymph node metastasis in patients with PTC; thus, ultrasonography-based radiomics can act as a biomarker for PTC.

Optimization of Multiclass Support Vector Machine using Genetic Algorithm: Application to the Prediction of Corporate Credit Rating (유전자 알고리즘을 이용한 다분류 SVM의 최적화: 기업신용등급 예측에의 응용)

  • Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.161-177
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    • 2014
  • Corporate credit rating assessment consists of complicated processes in which various factors describing a company are taken into consideration. Such assessment is known to be very expensive since domain experts should be employed to assess the ratings. As a result, the data-driven corporate credit rating prediction using statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques has received considerable attention from researchers and practitioners. In particular, statistical methods such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA) and multinomial logistic regression analysis (MLOGIT), and AI methods including case-based reasoning (CBR), artificial neural network (ANN), and multiclass support vector machine (MSVM) have been applied to corporate credit rating.2) Among them, MSVM has recently become popular because of its robustness and high prediction accuracy. In this study, we propose a novel optimized MSVM model, and appy it to corporate credit rating prediction in order to enhance the accuracy. Our model, named 'GAMSVM (Genetic Algorithm-optimized Multiclass Support Vector Machine),' is designed to simultaneously optimize the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection. Prior studies like Lorena and de Carvalho (2008), and Chatterjee (2013) show that proper kernel parameters may improve the performance of MSVMs. Also, the results from the studies such as Shieh and Yang (2008) and Chatterjee (2013) imply that appropriate feature selection may lead to higher prediction accuracy. Based on these prior studies, we propose to apply GAMSVM to corporate credit rating prediction. As a tool for optimizing the kernel parameters and the feature subset selection, we suggest genetic algorithm (GA). GA is known as an efficient and effective search method that attempts to simulate the biological evolution phenomenon. By applying genetic operations such as selection, crossover, and mutation, it is designed to gradually improve the search results. Especially, mutation operator prevents GA from falling into the local optima, thus we can find the globally optimal or near-optimal solution using it. GA has popularly been applied to search optimal parameters or feature subset selections of AI techniques including MSVM. With these reasons, we also adopt GA as an optimization tool. To empirically validate the usefulness of GAMSVM, we applied it to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. Our application is in bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. The experimental dataset was collected from a large credit rating company in South Korea. It contained 39 financial ratios of 1,295 companies in the manufacturing industry, and their credit ratings. Using various statistical methods including the one-way ANOVA and the stepwise MDA, we selected 14 financial ratios as the candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, i.e. credit rating, was labeled as four classes: 1(A1); 2(A2); 3(A3); 4(B and C). 80 percent of total data for each class was used for training, and remaining 20 percent was used for validation. And, to overcome small sample size, we applied five-fold cross validation to our dataset. In order to examine the competitiveness of the proposed model, we also experimented several comparative models including MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM. In case of MSVM, we adopted One-Against-One (OAO) and DAGSVM (Directed Acyclic Graph SVM) approaches because they are known to be the most accurate approaches among various MSVM approaches. GAMSVM was implemented using LIBSVM-an open-source software, and Evolver 5.5-a commercial software enables GA. Other comparative models were experimented using various statistical and AI packages such as SPSS for Windows, Neuroshell, and Microsoft Excel VBA (Visual Basic for Applications). Experimental results showed that the proposed model-GAMSVM-outperformed all the competitive models. In addition, the model was found to use less independent variables, but to show higher accuracy. In our experiments, five variables such as X7 (total debt), X9 (sales per employee), X13 (years after founded), X15 (accumulated earning to total asset), and X39 (the index related to the cash flows from operating activity) were found to be the most important factors in predicting the corporate credit ratings. However, the values of the finally selected kernel parameters were found to be almost same among the data subsets. To examine whether the predictive performance of GAMSVM was significantly greater than those of other models, we used the McNemar test. As a result, we found that GAMSVM was better than MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and ANN at the 1% significance level, and better than OAO and DAGSVM at the 5% significance level.

A Study on People Counting in Public Metro Service using Hybrid CNN-LSTM Algorithm (Hybrid CNN-LSTM 알고리즘을 활용한 도시철도 내 피플 카운팅 연구)

  • Choi, Ji-Hye;Kim, Min-Seung;Lee, Chan-Ho;Choi, Jung-Hwan;Lee, Jeong-Hee;Sung, Tae-Eung
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.131-145
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    • 2020
  • In line with the trend of industrial innovation, IoT technology utilized in a variety of fields is emerging as a key element in creation of new business models and the provision of user-friendly services through the combination of big data. The accumulated data from devices with the Internet-of-Things (IoT) is being used in many ways to build a convenience-based smart system as it can provide customized intelligent systems through user environment and pattern analysis. Recently, it has been applied to innovation in the public domain and has been using it for smart city and smart transportation, such as solving traffic and crime problems using CCTV. In particular, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the easiness of securing real-time service data and the stability of security when planning underground services or establishing movement amount control information system to enhance citizens' or commuters' convenience in circumstances with the congestion of public transportation such as subways, urban railways, etc. However, previous studies that utilize image data have limitations in reducing the performance of object detection under private issue and abnormal conditions. The IoT device-based sensor data used in this study is free from private issue because it does not require identification for individuals, and can be effectively utilized to build intelligent public services for unspecified people. Especially, sensor data stored by the IoT device need not be identified to an individual, and can be effectively utilized for constructing intelligent public services for many and unspecified people as data free form private issue. We utilize the IoT-based infrared sensor devices for an intelligent pedestrian tracking system in metro service which many people use on a daily basis and temperature data measured by sensors are therein transmitted in real time. The experimental environment for collecting data detected in real time from sensors was established for the equally-spaced midpoints of 4×4 upper parts in the ceiling of subway entrances where the actual movement amount of passengers is high, and it measured the temperature change for objects entering and leaving the detection spots. The measured data have gone through a preprocessing in which the reference values for 16 different areas are set and the difference values between the temperatures in 16 distinct areas and their reference values per unit of time are calculated. This corresponds to the methodology that maximizes movement within the detection area. In addition, the size of the data was increased by 10 times in order to more sensitively reflect the difference in temperature by area. For example, if the temperature data collected from the sensor at a given time were 28.5℃, the data analysis was conducted by changing the value to 285. As above, the data collected from sensors have the characteristics of time series data and image data with 4×4 resolution. Reflecting the characteristics of the measured, preprocessed data, we finally propose a hybrid algorithm that combines CNN in superior performance for image classification and LSTM, especially suitable for analyzing time series data, as referred to CNN-LSTM (Convolutional Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). In the study, the CNN-LSTM algorithm is used to predict the number of passing persons in one of 4×4 detection areas. We verified the validation of the proposed model by taking performance comparison with other artificial intelligence algorithms such as Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) and RNN-LSTM (Recurrent Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory). As a result of the experiment, proposed CNN-LSTM hybrid model compared to MLP, LSTM and RNN-LSTM has the best predictive performance. By utilizing the proposed devices and models, it is expected various metro services will be provided with no illegal issue about the personal information such as real-time monitoring of public transport facilities and emergency situation response services on the basis of congestion. However, the data have been collected by selecting one side of the entrances as the subject of analysis, and the data collected for a short period of time have been applied to the prediction. There exists the limitation that the verification of application in other environments needs to be carried out. In the future, it is expected that more reliability will be provided for the proposed model if experimental data is sufficiently collected in various environments or if learning data is further configured by measuring data in other sensors.

Statistical Analysis of 1,000 Cases of Kawasaki Disease Patients Diagnosed at a Single Institute (단일 기관에서 진단받은 가와사끼병 환아 1,000례의 통계학적 분석)

  • Hwang, Dae Hwan;Sin, Kyoung Mi;Choi, Kyong Min;Choi, Jae Young;Sul, Jun Hee;Kim, Dong Soo
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.48 no.4
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    • pp.416-424
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    • 2005
  • Purpose : To find the risk factors associated with coronory artery lesions, non-responsiveness to intravenous immunoglobulin(IVIG) treatment, and recurrences in Kawasaki disease patients. Methods : We retrospectively analyzed 1,000 Kawasaki disease patients who were admitted to Yonsei University Medical Center from September 1990 to December 2003. We compared between responder and non-responder groups to IVIG treatment as well as between relapsed and non-relapsed groups, and as to the relapsed group, we also compared variables between patients in their first and second attack states. Finally, factors associated with longer-fever duration from disease onset were evaluated. Results : Longer fever durations before and after IVIG treatment, male sex, lower Hgb and Hct level, higher WBC count and segmented WBC proportion, and higher CRP and Harada's score were related with coronary artery lesions. Non-responsiveness was related to higher WBC count, segmented WBC proportion, CRP, SGPT, Harada's score, and pyuria. Moderate-to-severe coronary artery dilatations and recurrences were more commonly seen among the non-responder group. No significant predictive factors for recurrence were found. In the relapsed group, lower WBC count, CRP, and shorter fever duration from disease onset were observed in their second attack state. Fever duration from disease onset showed positive correlation with WBC count, CRP, and Harada's score and negative correlation with Hgb levels. Conclusion : Higher WBC count, CRP, and higher Harada's score were related to both higher incidences of coronary artery lesions and non-responsiveness to IVIG treatment, and these factors were also related with longer fever duration. Non-responders to IVIG treatment showed higher recurrence rate and more moderate-to-severe coronary artery dilatations than responders.

The Role of Percutaneous Pleural Needle Biopsy in the Diagnosis of Lymphocyte Dominant Pleural Effusion (림프구 우위성 삼출성 늑막액의 진단에 있어서의 경피적 늑막 침 생검의 역할)

  • Yim, Jae-Joon;Kim, Woo-Jin;Yoo, Chul-Gyu;Kim, Young-Whan;Han, Sung-Koo;Shim, Young-Soo
    • Tuberculosis and Respiratory Diseases
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.899-906
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    • 1997
  • Background : The percutaneous pleural needle biopsy have been regarded as cornerstone in the diagnosis of lymphocyte dominant pleural effusions of which acid fast bacilli smear and cytologic exam was negative. However, the complications of percutaneous pleural needle biopsy is not rare and its diagnostic efficacy is not always satisfactory. Recently, pleural fluid adenosine deaminase (ADA) and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) are widely accepted as markers of tuberculous pleurisy and malignant pleural effusion respectively. We designed this study to re-evaluate the role of percutaneous pleural needle biopsy in the diagnosis of lymphocyte dominant exudative pleural effusions whose AFB smear, cytologic exam was negative. Method : Retrospective analysis of 73 cases of percutaneous pleural needle biopsy in case of lymphocyte dominant exudative pleural effusions whose AFB smear and cytoloic exam was negative from Jan 1994 to Feb 1996 was done. Result : In 35 cases, specific diagnosis was obtained(all cases were tuberculous pleurisy), and in 30 cases specific diagnosis was not obtained in spite of getting adequate pleural tissues, and in the other 8 cases, percutaneous pleural biopsy failed to get pleural tissues. In 9 cases, complications were combined including pneuomothorax and hemothorax. All 49 cases of pleural effusions whose ADA value was higher than 40IU/L and satisfying other categories were finally diagnosed as tuberculous pleurisy, however, the pleural biopsy confirmed only 28 cases as tuberculous pleurisy. In 6 cases of pleural effusions of which CEA value is higher than 10ng/ml, the pleural biopsy made specific diagnosis in no case. Final diagnosis of above 6 cases consisted of 4 malignant effusions, 1 malignancy associated effusion and 1 tuberculous pleurisy. Conclusion : In the diagnosis of 73 cases of lymphocyte dominant pleural effusions of which acid fast bacilli smear and cytologic exam was negative, percutaneous pleural biopsy diagnosed only in 35 cases. In the diagnosis of tuberculous pleurisy, the positive predictive value of higher ADA than 40 IU/L in lymphocyte dominant pleural effusion with negative AFB smear and negative cytologic exam was 100%. And the diagnostic efficacy of pleural biopsy was 57%. In cases of effusions with high CEA than 10ng/ml 83% and 0% respectively. Finally, we concluded that percutaneous pleural needle biopsy in the diagnosis of AFB smear negative and cytologic exam negative lymphocyte dominant exudative pleural effusion was not obligatory. especially in effusions with high ADA and low CEA value.

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Analysis of Risk Factors in Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery (관동맥우회술의 위험인자 분석)

  • 정태은;한승세
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.31 no.11
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    • pp.1049-1055
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    • 1998
  • Background: Coronary artery bypass surgery is an important treatment for ischemic heart disease. Recently operative mortality and morbidity has decreased, however further improvement is necessary. Materials and methods: This study was designed to evaluate the risk of operative mortality and morbidity by retrospective method. From 1992 to 1997, eighty six patients underwent coronary artery bypass surgery. There were 61 males and 25 females aged 36~74 years(mean, 58.6). Fourteen patients(16%) had previous PTCA or stent insertion, 41 patients(48%) had unstable angina, and 45 patients(52%) had three vessel disease. Patients with low LV ejection fraction(<35%) were 7 cases and urgent or emergent operation were 10 cases. There were 6 cases of combined surgery which were mitral valve replacement(2 cases), aortic valve replacement(2 cases), ASD repair(1 case), and VSD repair(1 case). Average number of distal anastomosis was 3.5 per patient and average aortic cross clamp time was 115±38.3min. Preoperative risk factors were defined as follows: female, old age(>70 years), low body surface area(<1.5M2), PTCA or stent insertion history, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, hypertension, DM, COPD, urgent or emergent operation, left main disease, low LV ejection fraction(<35%), and combined surgery. Results: Operative mortality was 7cases(8%). As a postoperative morbidity, perioperative myocardial infarction was 6 cases, cerebrovascular accident 6 cases, reoperation for bleeding 5 cases, acute renal failure 4 cases, gastrointestinal complication 3 cases, and mediastinitis 3 cases. In the evaluation of operative risk factors, low body surface area, DM and low LV ejection fraction were found to be predictive risk factors of postoperative morbidity(p<0.05), and low ejection fraction was especially a risk factor of hospital mortality(p<0.05). Conclusions: In this study, low body surface area, DM and low LV ejection fraction were risk factors of postoperative morbidity and low ejection fraction was a risk factor of hospital mortality.

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Clinical Analysis of Disease Recurrence for the Patients with Secondary Spontaneous Pneumothorax (이차성 자연기흉 환자의 재발양상에 관한 분석)

  • Ryu, Kyoung-Min;Kim, Sam-Hyun;Seo, Pil-Won;Park, Seong-Sik;Ryu, Jae-Wook;Kim, Hyun-Jung
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.619-624
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    • 2008
  • Background: Secondary spontaneous pneumothorax is caused by various underlying lung diseases, and this is despite that primary spontaneous pneumotherax is caused by rupture of subpleural blebs. The treatment algorithm for secondary pneumothorax is different from that for primary pneumothorax. We studied the recurrence rate, the characteristics of recurrence and the treatment outcomes of the patients with secondary spontaneous pneumothorax. Material and Method: Between March 2005 to March 2007, 85 patients were treated for their first episodes of secondary spontaneous pneumothorax. We analyzed the characteristics and factors for recurrence of secondary spontaneous pneumothorax by conducting a retrospective review of the medical records. Result: The most common underlying lung disease was pulmonary tuberculosis (49.4%), and the second was chronic obstructive lung disease (27.6%), The recurrence rate was 47.1% (40/85). The second and third recurrence rates were 10.9% and 3.5%, respectively. The mean follow up period was $21.1{\pm}6.7$ months (range: $0{\sim}36$ month). For the recurrence cases, 70.5% of them occurred within a year after the first episode. The success rates according to the treatment modalities were thoracostomy 47.6%, chemical pleurodesis 74.4%, blob resection 71% and Heimlich valve application 50%. Chemical pleurodesis through the chest tube was the most effective method of treatment. The factor that was most predictive of recurrence was 'an air-leak of 7 days or more' at the first episode. (p=0.002) Conclusion: The patients who have a prolonged air-leak at the first episode of pneumothorax tend to have a higher incidence of recurrence. Further studies with more patients are necessary to determine the standard treatment protocol for secondary spontaneous pneumothorax.

Remission rate and remission predictors of Graves disease in children and adolescents (소아 및 청소년 그레이브스병 환자에서의 관해 예측 인자와 관해율)

  • Lee, Sun Hee;Lee, Seong Yong;Chung, Hye Rim;Kim, Jae Hyun;Kim, Ji Hyun;Lee, Young Ah;Yang, Sei Won;Shin, Choong Ho
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.52 no.9
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    • pp.1021-1028
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    • 2009
  • Purpose:Medical therapy is the initial treatment for children with Graves disease to avoid complications of other treatments. However, optimal treatment for childhood Graves disease is controversial because most patients require relatively long periods of medical therapy and relapse is common after medication discontinuation. Therefore, this study aimed to search clinical or biochemical characteristics that could be used as remission predictors in Graves disease. Methods:We retrospectively studied children diagnosed with Graves disease, treated with anti-thyroid agents, and observed for at least 3 years. Patients were categorized into remission and non-remission groups, and the groups were compared to determine the variables that were predictive of achieving remission. Results:Sixty-four patients were enrolled, of which 37 (57.8%) achieved remission and 27 (42.2%) could not achieve remission until the last visit. Normalization of thyroid-stimulating hormone-binding inhibitory immunoglobulin (TBII) after treatment was faster in the remission group than in the non-remission group (remission group, $15.5{\pm}12.07$ vs. non-remission group, $41.69{\pm}35.70$ months). Thyrotropin-releasing hormone (TRH) stimulation tests were performed in 28 patients. Only 2 (8.3%) of 26 patients who showed normal or hyper-response in TRH stimulation test relapsed. Binary logistic regression analysis identified rapid achievement of TBII normalization after treatment as a significant predictor of remission. Six percent of patients achieved remission within 3 years and 55.8% achieved it within 6 years. Conclusion:Rapid achievement of TBII normalization can be a predictor of remission in childhood Graves disease. The TRH stimulation test can be a predictor of maintenance of remission.