• 제목/요약/키워드: prediction of lifetime

검색결과 220건 처리시간 0.025초

Prescreening of Environmental Conditions for Prediction of Severe Operation Condition of Offshore Structures

  • Lim, Dong-Hyun;Kim, Yonghwan;Kim, Taeyoung
    • Journal of Advanced Research in Ocean Engineering
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    • 제1권4호
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    • pp.252-267
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    • 2015
  • Offshore structures might encounter several environmental and operating conditions during their lifetime of several decades. In order to predict the dynamic behavior of offshore structures, several simulation cases should be considered to deal with all the combinations of ocean environments and operating conditions. Because a sophisticated time-domain coupled dynamic analysis requires an extremely large amount of computational time to handle all the possible cases, an efficient preliminary process to prescreen the probability of severe environmental conditions can be helpful in downsizing the number of simulation cases and computational effort. In this study, a prescreening procedure to reduce the number of environmental conditions for dynamic analyses of offshore structures is proposed. For the efficiency of the procedure, frequency-domain theories were adopted to estimate the platform offset, using quasi-static analyses in line tension prediction. The results were validated by comparing with those of dynamic analysis coupled between platform and mooring lines, and reasonable agreement was observed. In addition, the characteristics of environmental conditions classified to be severe to the system were investigated through the application of the developed prescreening scheme to several actual environmental conditions.

Lifetime prediction of bearings in on-board starter generator

  • Zieja, Mariusz;Tomaszewska, Justyna;Woch, Marta;Michalski, Mariusz
    • Advances in aircraft and spacecraft science
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    • 제8권4호
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    • pp.289-302
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    • 2021
  • Ensuring flight safety for passengers as well as crew is the most important aspect of modern aviation, and in order to achieve this, it is necessary to be able to forecast the durability of individual components. The present contribution illustrates the results of a computational analysis to determine the possibility of analysing the prediction of bearing durability in on-board rotating equipment from the point of view of thermal fatigue.In this study, a method developed at the Air Force Institute of Technology was used for analysis, which allowed to determine the bearing durability from the flight altitude profile. Two aircraft have been chosen for analysis - a military M-28 and a civilian Embraer. As a result of the analysis were obtained: the bearing durability in on-board rotating devices, average operation time between failures, as well as failure rate. In conclusion, the practical applicability of this approach is demonstrated by the fact that even with a limited number of flight parameters, it is possible to estimate bearing durability and increase flight safety by regular inspections.

Failure Prediction of Metal Oxide Varistor Using Nonlinear Surge Look-up Table Based on Experimental Data

  • Kim, Young Sun
    • Transactions on Electrical and Electronic Materials
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    • 제16권6호
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    • pp.317-322
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    • 2015
  • The metal oxide varistor (MOV) is a major component of the surge protection devices (SPDs) currently in use. The device is judged to be faulty when fatigue caused by the continuous inflow of lightning accumulates and reaches the damage limit. In many cases, induced lightning resulting from lightning strikes flows in to the device several times per second in succession. Therefore, the frequency or the rate at which the SPD is actually exposed to stress, called a surge, is outside the range of human perception. For this reason, the protective device should be replaced if it actually approaches the end of its life even though it is not faulty at present, currently no basis exists for making the judgment of remaining lifetime. Up to now, the life of an MOV has been predicted solely based on the number of inflow surges, irrespective of the magnitude of the surge current or the amount of energy that has flowed through the device. In this study, nonlinear data that shows the damage to an MOV depending on the count of surge and the amount of input current were collected through a high-voltage test. Then, a failure prediction algorithm was proposed by preparing a look-up table using the results of the test. The proposed method was experimentally verified using an impulse surge generator

Service life prediction of a reinforced concrete bridge exposed to chloride induced deterioration

  • Papadakis, Vagelis G.
    • Advances in concrete construction
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    • 제1권3호
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    • pp.201-213
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    • 2013
  • While recognizing the problem of reinforcement corrosion and premature structural deterioration of reinforced concrete (RC) structures as a combined effect of mechanical and environmental actions (carbonation, ingress of chlorides), emphasis is given on the effect of the latter, as most severe and unpredictable action. In this study, a simulation tool, based on proven predictive models utilizing principles of chemical and material engineering, for the estimation of concrete service life is applied on an existing reinforced concrete bridge (${\O}$resund Link) located in a chloride environment. After a brief introduction to the structure of the models used, emphasis is given on the physicochemical processes in concrete leading to chloride induced corrosion of the embedded reinforcement. By taking under consideration the concrete, structural and environmental properties of the bridge investigated, an accurate prediction of its service life is taking place. It was observed that the proposed, and already used, relationship of service lifetime- cover is almost identical with a mean line between the lines derived from the minimum and maximum critical values considered for corrosion initiation. Thus, an excellent agreement with the project specifications is observed despite the different ways used to approach the problem. Furthermore, different scenarios of concrete cover failure, in the case when a coating is utilized, and extreme deicing salts attack are also investigated.

콘크리트 코어 분석을 통한 복합열화 평가와 잔존수명 예측 연구 (A Study on Evaluation of Complex Deterioration evaluation and Prediction of Residual Life through Concrete Core)

  • Shim, Jaeyoung
    • 한국재난정보학회 논문집
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.332-339
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    • 2017
  • 노후화된 구조물의 경우 준공 후 시간이 지나 구조물의 정보가 유실되는 경우가 많으며, 시공관련 자료에 대한 정보 부족으로 인해 구조물의 잔존수명을 예측하는데 큰 어려움이 있다. 본 연구에서는 현장에서 채취한 코어 시험체를 기반으로 각종 현장 및 실내시험법을 통한 내구성을 평가하고 이를 토대로 FEM 해석기법을 활용하여 콘크리트 구조물의 내구수명을 예측하였다. 그 결과, 중성화 속도계수는 $5.38E-6(cm^2/day)$로 매우 진행 속도가 낮은 것으로 나타났으며, 탄산화 및 염해에 의한 복합열화의 발생 가능성은 매우 낮은 것으로 확인되었다

A new approach for predicting sulfate ion concentration in concrete

  • Mohammad Ghanooni-Bagha;Mohsen Ali Shayanfar;Sajad Momen
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • 제33권1호
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2024
  • Aggressive environmental conditions, and especially the acidic effects of sulfate ion penetration, have reduced the lifetime of concrete structures in some areas, especially coastal and marine areas. In this research, at first, samples made of type II and V cement were kept in a solution of magnesium sulfate (MgSO4) for a period of 90 and 180 days, the change of appearance. Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FE-SEM) and X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), were used to analyze the microstructure and the complex mineral composition of the concrete after exposure to corrosive environments. Then solving the differential equation governing the sulfate ion penetration, which is based on the second Fick law, it has been tried to determine the concentration of sulfate ions inside the concrete. In the following, an attempt has been made to improve the prediction of sulfate ion concentration in concrete by using Crank's penetration equation. At the same time, the coefficient in the Crank's solution have been optimized by using the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO algorithm). The comparison between the results shows that the values obtained from Crank's relation are closer to the experimental results than the equation obtained from Fick's second law and shows a more accurate prediction.

공변량을 이용한 Brown-Proschan 불완전수리 하의 시스템 신뢰도 추정 (Estimating System Reliability under Brown-Proschan Imperfect Repair with Covariates)

  • 임태진;이진승
    • 한국경영과학회지
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.111-130
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    • 1998
  • We propose an imperfect repair model which depends on external effects quantified by covariates. The model is based on the Brown-Proschan imperfect repair model wherefrom the probability of perfect repair is represented by a function of covariates. We are motivated by deficiency of the BP model whose stationarity prevents us from predicting dynamically the time to next failure according to external condition. Five types of function for the probability of perfect repair are proposed. This article also presents a procedure for estimating the parameter of the function for the probability of perfect repair, as well as the inherent lifetime distribution of the system, based on consecutive inter-failure times and the covariates. The estimation procedure is based on the expectation-maximization principle which is suitable to incomplete data problems. focusing on the maximization step, we derive some theorems which guarantee the existence of the solution. A Monte Carlo study is also performed to illustrate the prediction power of the model as well as to show reasonable properties of the estimates. The model reduces significantly the mean square error of the in-sample prediction. so it can be utilized in real fields for evaluating and maintaining repairable systems.

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STS301L 가스용접이음재의 가속수명예측 자동화에 관한 연구 (Plug and Ring Type) (A Study on Accelerated Life Prediction Automation of Gas Welded Joint of STS301L (Plug and Ring Type))

  • 백승엽;손일선
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제19권3호
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2011
  • Stainless steel sheets are widely used as the structure material for the railroad cars and the commercial vehicles. These kinds structures used stainless steel sheets are commonly fabricated by using the gas welding. Gas welding is very important and useful technology in fabrication of an railroad car and vehicles structure. However fatigue strength of the gas welded joints is considerably lower than parent metal due to stress concentration at the weldment, fatigue strength evaluation of gas welded joints are very important to evaluate the reliability and durability of railroad cars and to establish a criterion of long life fatigue design. In this paper, ${\Delta}-N_f$ curve were obtained by fatigue tests. Using these results, the accelerated life test (ALT) is conducted. From the experimental results, an acceleration model is derived and acceleration factors are estimated. So it is intended to obtain the useful information for the fatigue lifetime of plug and ring gas welded joints and data analysis by statistical reliability method, to save time and cost, and to develop optimum accelerated life prediction plans.

STS301L 가스용접이음재의 가속수명에측에 관한 연구 (1. Plug and Ring type) (A study on Accelerated Life Prediction of Gas Welded joint of STS301L (1. Plug and Ring type))

  • 백승엽;배동호
    • 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한기계학회 2008년도 추계학술대회A
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    • pp.1355-1360
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    • 2008
  • Stainless steel sheets are widely used as the structure material for the railroad cars and the commercial vehicles. These kinds structures used stainless steel sheets are commonly fabricated by using the gas welding. Gas welding is very important and useful technology in fabrication of an railroad car and vehicles structure. However fatigue strength of the gas welded joints is considerably lower than parent metal due to stress concentration at the weldment, fatigue strength evaluation of gas welded joints are very important to evaluate the reliability and durability of railroad cars and to establish a criterion of long life fatigue design. In this paper, ${\Delta}P-N_f$ curve were obtained by fatigue tests. Using these results, the accelerated life test (ALT) is conducted. From the experimental results, an acceleration model is derived and acceleration factors are estimated. So it is intended to obtain the useful information for the fatigue lifetime of plug and ring gas welded joints and data analysis by statistic reliability method, to save time and cost, and to develop optimum accelerated life prediction plans.

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장기 저장연료의 열안정성 및 연료접촉 고무오링의 수명예측 연구 (A Study on the Thermal Stability of Long-Term Fuel Storage and Lifetime Estimation of Rubber O-ring in Contacted with Fuel)

  • 정근우;홍진숙;김영운;한정식;정병훈;권태수;서동욱;성민준;권영일
    • Tribology and Lubricants
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    • 제34권5호
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    • pp.197-207
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    • 2018
  • Thermal deterioration of fuel due to long-term storage influences engine performance and causes malfunctions. Fuel stability is usually evaluated via heat resistance and thermal stability during a brief heat shock at high temperature; storage stability in this scenario means that there is very little change in the quality of the fuel during long-term storage. In addition, rubber-based products such as oil seals, O-rings, and rubber hoses can influence the quality of the fuel. When these rubber products are in contact with fuel, they can swell, mechanically weaken, and occasionally crack, thus leaking low molar weight rubber and additives including plasticizer and antioxidant into the fuel to degrade its properties and shorten its useful lifetime. This study determines the thermal stabilities of three kinds of synthetic fuels by evaluating their low temperature kinematic viscosities, chemical composition changes via GC analyses, gross heat of combustion, and color changes. We evaluate the compression set of O-rings by immersing one NBR and two FKM rubber O-rings in the three synthetic fuel samples in airtight containers at variable storage temperatures for six months; from this, we estimate the lifetimes of the O-rings using the Power law model. There were very little changes in the chemical compositions and gross heat of combustion after six months of the experiment. The lifetimes are thus dependent on the materials of the rubber products, and in particular, the FKM O-ring was calculated to have a theoretical lifetime of 200 to 5,700 years. These results indicate that the synthetic fuels maintain their physical properties even after long-term storage at high temperatures, and the FKM O-ring is suitable for long-term sealing of these fuels.