• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction model for wind speed

Search Result 175, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

Numerical study on temporal resolution of meteorological information for prediction of Asian dust (황사의 확산예측을 위한 기상정보의 시간해상도에 관한 수치연구)

  • Lee Soon-Hwan;Gwak Eun-Young;Ryu Chan-Su;Moon Yun-Seob
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
    • /
    • v.13 no.10
    • /
    • pp.891-902
    • /
    • 2004
  • In order to predict air pollution and Yellow-sand dispersion precisely, it is necessary to clarify the sensitivity of meteorological field input interval. Therefore numerical experiment by atmospheric dynamic model(RAMS) and atmospheric dispersion model(PDAS) was performed for evaluating the effect of temporal and spatial resolution of meteorological data on particle dispersion. The results are as follows: 1) Base on the result of RAMS simulation, surface wind direction and speed can either synchronize upper wind or not. If surface wind and upper wind do not synchronize, precise prediction of Yellow-sand dispersion is strongly associated with upwelling process of sand of particle. 2) There is no significant discrepance in distribution of particle under usage of difference temporal resolution of meteorological information at early time of simulation, but the difference of distribution of particles become large as time goes by. 3) There is little difference between calculated particles distributions in dispersion experiments with high temporal resolution of meteorological data. On the other hand, low resolution of meteorological data occur the quantitative difference of particle density and there is strong tendency to the quantitative difference.

Development of a Time-Domain Simulation Tool for Offshore Wind Farms

  • Kim, Hyungyu;Kim, Kwansoo;Paek, Insu;Yoo, Neungsoo
    • Journal of Power Electronics
    • /
    • v.15 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1047-1053
    • /
    • 2015
  • A time-domain simulation tool to predict the dynamic power output of wind turbines in an offshore wind farm was developed in this study. A wind turbine model consisting of first or second order transfer functions of various wind turbine elements was combined with the Ainslie's eddy viscosity wake model to construct the simulation tool. The wind turbine model also includes an aerodynamic model that is a look up table of power and thrust coefficients with respect to the tip speed ratio and pitch angle of the wind turbine obtained by a commercial multi-body dynamics simulation tool. The wake model includes algorithms of superposition of multiple wakes and propagation based on Taylor's frozen turbulence assumption. Torque and pitch control algorithms were implemented in the simulation tool to perform max-Cp and power regulation control of the wind turbines. The simulation tool calculates wind speeds in the two-dimensional domain of the wind farm at the hub height of the wind turbines and yields power outputs from individual wind turbines. The NREL 5MW reference wind turbine was targeted as a wind turbine to obtain parameters for the simulation. To validate the simulation tool, a Danish offshore wind farm with 80 wind turbines was modelled and used to predict the power from the wind farm. A comparison of the prediction with the measured values available in literature showed that the results from the simulation program were fairly close to the measured results in literature except when the wind turbines are congruent with the wind direction.

Reconstruction and Validation of Gridded Product of Wind/Wind-stress derived by Satellite Scatterometer Data over the World Ocean and its Impact for Air-Sea Interaction Study

  • Kutsuwada, Kunio;Koyama, Makoto;Morimoto, Naoki
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
    • /
    • 2007.10a
    • /
    • pp.33-36
    • /
    • 2007
  • We have persistently constructed gridded products of surface wind/wind stress over the world ocean using satellite scatterometer (ERS and Qscat). They are available for users as the Japanese Ocean Flux data sets with Use of Remote sensing Observation (J-OFURO) data together with heat flux components. Recently, a new version data of the Qscat/SeaWinds based on improved algorithm for rain flag and high wind-speed range have been delivered, and allowed us to reconstruct gridded product with higher spatial resolution. These products are validated by comparisons with in-situ measurement data by mooring buoys such as TAO/TRITON, NDBC and the Kuroshio Extension Observation (KEO) buoys, together with numerical weather prediction model products such as the NCEP-1 and 2. Results reveal that the new product has almost the same magnitude in mean difference as the previous version of Qscat product and much smaller than the NCEP-1 and 2. On the other hand, it is slightly larger root-mean-square (RMS) difference than the previous one and NCEPs for the comparison using the KEO buoy data. This may be due to the deficit of high wind speed data in the buoy measurement. The high resolution product, together with sea surface temperature (SST) one, is used to examine a new type of relationship between the lower atmosphere and upper ocean in the Kuroshio Extension region.

  • PDF

Forecasting of Short Term Photovoltaic Generation by Various Input Model in Supervised Learning (지도학습에서 다양한 입력 모델에 의한 초단기 태양광 발전 예측)

  • Jang, Jin-Hyuk;Shin, Dong-Ha;Kim, Chang-Bok
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
    • /
    • v.22 no.5
    • /
    • pp.478-484
    • /
    • 2018
  • This study predicts solar radiation, solar radiation, and solar power generation using hourly weather data such as temperature, precipitation, wind direction, wind speed, humidity, cloudiness, sunshine and solar radiation. I/O pattern in supervised learning is the most important factor in prediction, but it must be determined by repeated experiments because humans have to decide. This study proposed four input and output patterns for solar and sunrise prediction. In addition, we predicted solar power generation using the predicted solar and solar radiation data and power generation data of Youngam solar power plant in Jeollanamdo. As a experiment result, the model 4 showed the best prediction results in the sunshine and solar radiation prediction, and the RMSE of sunshine was 1.5 times and the sunshine RMSE was 3 times less than that of model 1. As a experiment result of solar power generation prediction, the best prediction result was obtained for model 4 as well as sunshine and solar radiation, and the RMSE was reduced by 2.7 times less than that of model 1.

Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Weather Prediction Model with Topographic Effect in the Radiative Transfer Process (복사전달과정에서 지형효과에 따른 기상수치모델의 민감도 분석)

  • Jee, Joon-Bum;Min, Jae-Sik;Jang, Min;Kim, Bu-Yo;Zo, Il-Sung;Lee, Kyu-Tae
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.27 no.4
    • /
    • pp.385-398
    • /
    • 2017
  • Numerical weather prediction experiments were carried out by applying topographic effects to reduce or enhance the solar radiation by terrain. In this study, x and ${\kappa}({\phi}_o,\;{\theta}_o)$ are precalculated for topographic effect on high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) with 1 km spatial resolution, and meteorological variables are analyzed through the numerical experiments. For the numerical simulations, cases were selected in winter (CASE 1) and summer (CASE 2). In the CASE 2, topographic effect was observed on the southward surface to enhance the solar energy reaching the surface, and enhance surface temperature and temperature at 2 m. Especially, the surface temperature is changed sensitively due to the change of the solar energy on the surface, but the change of the precipitation is difficult to match of topographic effect. As a result of the verification using Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) Automated Weather System (AWS) data on Seoul metropolitan area, the topographic effect is very weak in the winter case. In the CASE 1, the improvement of accuracy was numerically confirmed by decreasing the bias and RMSE (Root mean square error) of temperature at 2 m, wind speed at 10 m and relative humidity. However, the accuracy of rainfall prediction (Threat score (TS), BIAS, equitable threat score (ETS)) with topographic effect is decreased compared to without topographic effect. It is analyzed that the topographic effect improves the solar radiation on surface and affect the enhancements of surface temperature, 2 meter temperature, wind speed, and PBL height.

Applicability of the Wind Erosion Prediction System for prediction of soil loss by wind in arable land

  • Lee, Kyo-Suk;Seo, Il-Hwan;Lee, Sang-Phil;Lim, Chul-Soon;Lee, Dong-Sung;Min, Se-Won;Jung, Hyun-Gyu;Yang, Jae-Eui;Chung, Doug-Young
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
    • /
    • v.47 no.4
    • /
    • pp.845-857
    • /
    • 2020
  • The precise estimation of accelerated soil wind erosion that can cause severe economic and environmental impacts still has not been achieved to date. The objectives of this investigation were to verify the applicability of a Wind Erosion Prediction System (WEPS) that expressed the soil loss as mass per area for specific areas of interest on a daily basis for a single event in arable lands. To this end, we selected and evaluated the results published by Hagen in 2004 and the soil depth converted from the mass of soil losses obtained by using the WEPS. Hagen's results obtained from the WEPS model followed the 1 : 1 line between predicted and measured value for soil losses with only less than 2 kg·m-2 whereas the values between the measured and predicted loss did not show any correlation for the given field conditions due to the initial field surface condition although the model provided reasonable estimates of soil loss. Calculated soil depths of the soil loss by wind for both the observed and predicted ones ranged from 0.004 to 3.113 cm·10 a-1 and from 0 to 2.013 cm·10 a-1, respectively. Comparison of the soil depths between the observed and predicted ones did not show any good relationship, and there was no soil loss in the predicted one while slight soil loss was measured in the observed one. Therefore, varying the essential model inputs and factors related to wind speed and soil properties are needed to accurately estimate soil loss for a given field in arable land.

Wake Losses and Repositioning of Wind Turbines at Wind Farm (풍력발전단지의 후류손실 및 터빈 재배치에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Kun-Sung;Ryu, Ki-Wahn;Kim, Hyun-Goo
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
    • /
    • v.35 no.3
    • /
    • pp.17-25
    • /
    • 2015
  • The main objective of this study is to predict the wind power generation at the wind farm using various wake models. Modeling of wind farm is a prerequisite for prediction of annual energy production at the wind farm. In this study, we modeled 20 MW class Seongsan wind farm which has 10 wind turbines located at the eastern part of Jeju Island. WindSim based on the computational fluid dynamics was adopted for the estimation of power generation. The power curve and thrust coefficient with meteorology file were prepared for wind farm modelling. The meteorology file was produced based on the measured data of the Korea Wind Atlas provided by Korea Institute of Energy Research. Three types of wake models such as Jensen, Larsen, and Ishihara et al. wake models were applied to investigate the wake effects. From the result, Jensen and Ishihara wake models show nearly the same value of power generation whereas the Larsen wake model shows the largest value. New positions of wind turbines are proposed to reduce the wake loss, and to increase the annual energy production of the wind farm.

A Study on Sensitivity of Heavy Precipitation to Domain Size with a Regional Numerical Weather Prediction Model (지역예측모델 영역 크기에 따른 집중호우 수치모의 민감도 실험)

  • Min, Jae-Sik;Roh, Joon-Woo;Jee, Joon-Bum;Kim, Sangil
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.26 no.1
    • /
    • pp.85-95
    • /
    • 2016
  • In this study, we investigated the variabilities of wind speed of 850 hPa and precipitable water over the East Asia region using the NCEP Final Analysis data from December 2001 to November 2011. A large variance of wind speed was observed in northern and eastern China during the winter period. During summer, the regions of the East China Sea, the South Sea of Japan and the East Sea show large variances in the wind speed caused by an extended North Pacific High and typhoon activities. The large variances in the wind speed in the regions are shown to be correlated with the inter-annual variability of precipitable water over the inland region of windward side of the Korean Peninsula. Based on the investigation, sensitivity tests to the domain size were performed using the WRF model version 3.6 for heavy precipitation events over the Korean Peninsula for 26 and 27 July 2011. Numerical experiments of different domain sizes were set up with 5 km horizontal and 50 levels vertical resolutions for the control and the first experimental run, and 9 km horizontal for the second experimental run. We found that the major rainfalls correspond to shortwave troughs with baroclinic structure over Northeast China and extended North Pacific High. The correlation analysis between the observation and experiments for 1-h precipitation indicated that the second experiment with the largest domain had the best performance with the correlation coefficient of 0.79 due to the synoptic-scale systems such as short-wave troughs and North Pacific High.

Design of a 1-D CRNN Model for Prediction of Fine Dust Risk Level (미세먼지 위험 단계 예측을 위한 1-D CRNN 모델 설계)

  • Lee, Ki-Hyeok;Hwang, Woo-Sung;Choi, Myung-Ryul
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
    • /
    • v.19 no.2
    • /
    • pp.215-220
    • /
    • 2021
  • In order to reduce the harmful effects on the human body caused by the recent increase in the generation of fine dust in Korea, there is a need for technology to help predict the level of fine dust and take precautions. In this paper, we propose a 1D Convolutional-Recurrent Neural Network (1-D CRNN) model to predict the level of fine dust in Korea. The proposed model is a structure that combines the CNN and the RNN, and uses domestic and foreign fine dust, wind direction, and wind speed data for data prediction. The proposed model achieved an accuracy of about 76%(Partial up to 84%). The proposed model aims to data prediction model for time series data sets that need to consider various data in the future.

A Statistical Correction of Point Time Series Data of the NCAM-LAMP Medium-range Prediction System Using Support Vector Machine (서포트 벡터 머신을 이용한 NCAM-LAMP 고해상도 중기예측시스템 지점 시계열 자료의 통계적 보정)

  • Kwon, Su-Young;Lee, Seung-Jae;Kim, Man-Il
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.23 no.4
    • /
    • pp.415-423
    • /
    • 2021
  • Recently, an R-based point time series data validation system has been established for the statistical post processing and improvement of the National Center for AgroMeteorology-Land Atmosphere Modeling Package (NCAM-LAMP) medium-range prediction data. The time series verification system was used to compare the NCAM-LAMP with the AWS observations and GDAPS medium-range prediction model data operated by Korea Meteorological Administration. For this comparison, the model latitude and longitude data closest to the observation station were extracted and a total of nine points were selected. For each point, the characteristics of the model prediction error were obtained by comparing the daily average of the previous prediction data of air temperature, wind speed, and hourly precipitation, and then we tried to improve the next prediction data using Support Vector Machine( SVM) method. For three months from August to October 2017, the SVM method was used to calibrate the predicted time series data for each run. It was found that The SVM-based correction was promising and encouraging for wind speed and precipitation variables than for temperature variable. The correction effect was small in August but considerably increased in September and October. These results indicate that the SVM method can contribute to mitigate the gradual degradation of medium-range predictability as the model boundary data flows into the model interior.