• Title/Summary/Keyword: prediction model for wind speed

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A New Approach to Load Shedding Prediction in GECOL Using Deep Learning Neural Network

  • Abusida, Ashraf Mohammed;Hancerliogullari, Aybaba
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.220-228
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    • 2022
  • The directed tests produce an expectation model to assist the organization's heads and professionals with settling on the right and speedy choice. A directed deep learning strategy has been embraced and applied for SCADA information. In this paper, for the load shedding expectation overall power organization of Libya, a convolutional neural network with multi neurons is utilized. For contributions of the neural organization, eight convolutional layers are utilized. These boundaries are power age, temperature, stickiness and wind speed. The gathered information from the SCADA data set were pre-handled to be ready in a reasonable arrangement to be taken care of to the deep learning. A bunch of analyses has been directed on this information to get a forecast model. The created model was assessed as far as precision and decrease of misfortune. It tends to be presumed that the acquired outcomes are promising and empowering. For assessment of the outcomes four boundary, MSE, RMSE, MAPE and R2 are determined. The best R2 esteem is gotten for 1-overlap and it was 0.98.34 for train information and for test information is acquired 0.96. Additionally for train information the RMSE esteem in 1-overlap is superior to different Folds and this worth was 0.018.

Moisture Content Change of Korean Red Pine Logs During Air Drying: II. Prediction of Moisture Content Change of Korean Red Pine Logs under Different Air Drying Conditions (소나무 원목의 천연건조 중 함수율 변화: II. 소나무 원목의 천연건조 중 함수율 변화 예측)

  • HAN, Yeonjung;CHANG, Yoon-Seong;EOM, Chang-Deuk;LEE, Sang-Min
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.47 no.6
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    • pp.732-750
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    • 2019
  • Air drying was carried out on 15 Korean red pine logs to provide a prediction model of the moisture content (MC) change in the wood during drying. The final MC was 17.4% after 880 days since the beginning of air drying in the summer for 6 Korean red pine logs with 68.7% initial MC. The final MC was 16.0% after 760 days since the beginning of air drying in the winter for 9 Korean red pine logs with 35.8% initial MC. A regression model with R-squared of 0.925 was obtained as a result of multiple regression analyses with initial MC, top diameter, temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed as independent variable and and MC change during air drying as dependent variable. The initial MC and top diameter, which is the characteristic of Korean red pine, have greater effect on the MC decrease during air drying compared to meteorological factors such as the temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Two-dimensional mass transfer analysis was performed to predict the MC distribution of Korean red pine logs during air drying. Two prediction models with different air drying days and different meteorological factors for the determination of the diffusion coefficient and surface emission coefficient were presented. The error between the different two methods ranged from 0.1 to 0.8% and the difference from the measured value ranged from 2.2 to 3.6%. By measuring the internal MC during air drying of Korean pine logs with various initial MC and diameter, and calculating the moisture transfer coefficient in wood for each meteorological condition, the error of the prediction model can be reduced.

A Numerical Simulation of Blizzard Caused by Polar Low at King Sejong Station, Antarctica (극 저기압(Polar Low) 통과에 의해 발생한 남극 세종기지 강풍 사례 모의 연구)

  • Kwon, Hataek;Park, Sang-Jong;Lee, Solji;Kim, Seong-Joong;Kim, Baek-Min
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.277-288
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    • 2016
  • Polar lows are intense mesoscale cyclones that mainly occur over the sea in polar regions. Owing to their small spatial scale of a diameter less than 1000 km, simulating polar lows is a challenging task. At King Sejong station in West Antartica, polar lows are often observed. Despite the recent significant climatic changes observed over West Antarctica, adequate validation of regional simulations of extreme weather events such as polar lows are rare for this region. To address this gap, simulation results from a recent version of the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) covering Antartic Peninsula at a high horizontal resolution of 3 km are validated against near-surface meteorological observations. We selected a case of high wind speed event on 7 January 2013 recorded at Automatic Meteorological Observation Station (AMOS) in King Sejong station, Antarctica. It is revealed by in situ observations, numerical weather prediction, and reanalysis fields that the synoptic and mesoscale environment of the strong wind event was due to the passage of a strong mesoscale polar low of center pressure 950 hPa. Verifying model results from 3 km grid resolution simulation against AMOS observation showed that high skill in simulating wind speed and surface pressure with a bias of $-1.1m\;s^{-1}$ and -1.2 hPa, respectively. Our evaluation suggests that the Polar WRF can be used as a useful dynamic downscaling tool for the simulation of Antartic weather systems and the near-surface meteorological instruments installed in King Sejong station can provide invaluable data for polar low studies over West Antartica.

Short Term Forecast Model for Solar Power Generation using RNN-LSTM (RNN-LSTM을 이용한 태양광 발전량 단기 예측 모델)

  • Shin, Dong-Ha;Kim, Chang-Bok
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.233-239
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    • 2018
  • Since solar power generation is intermittent depending on weather conditions, it is necessary to predict the accurate generation amount of solar power to improve the efficiency and economical efficiency of solar power generation. This study proposes a short - term deep learning prediction model of solar power generation using meteorological data from Mokpo meteorological agency and generation data of Yeongam solar power plant. The meteorological agency forecasts weather factors such as temperature, precipitation, wind direction, wind speed, humidity, and cloudiness for three days. However, sunshine and solar radiation, the most important meteorological factors for forecasting solar power generation, are not predicted. The proposed model predicts solar radiation and solar radiation using forecast meteorological factors. The power generation was also forecasted by adding the forecasted solar and solar factors to the meteorological factors. The forecasted power generation of the proposed model is that the average RMSE and MAE of DNN are 0.177 and 0.095, and RNN is 0.116 and 0.067. Also, LSTM is the best result of 0.100 and 0.054. It is expected that this study will lead to better prediction results by combining various input.

An Experimental Study on Flapping Motion of Forward Flight Condition used to Articulated Hub Rotor (관절형 허브 로터를 이용한 전진비행조건에서의 플래핑 운동에 대한 실험적 연구)

  • Ryi, Jae-Ha;Back, Dong-Min;Rhee, Wook;Choi, Jong-Soo;Song, Keun Woong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.41 no.4
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    • pp.261-267
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, wind tunnel test and analytical prediction are compared for result of flapping motion in helicopter forward flight condition. Tests were performed at low speed wind tunnel at Chungnam National University, test section of wind tunnel has 1.8 by 1.8 meter open-jet test section area. According to the results of measured data for aerodynamic performance of model rotor in forward flight. It has to observed the difference of analytical and measured results of power coefficient for fixed thrust coefficient. And calculated and measured data of helicopter rotor flapping angles in forward flight are compared for a model rotor in a wind tunnel. A test was conducted to verify the measured data of coning and lateral/longitudinal flapping angle with predicted values.

Application of recurrent neural network for inflow prediction into multi-purpose dam basin (다목적댐 유입량 예측을 위한 Recurrent Neural Network 모형의 적용 및 평가)

  • Park, Myung Ky;Yoon, Yung Suk;Lee, Hyun Ho;Kim, Ju Hwan
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.51 no.12
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    • pp.1217-1227
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    • 2018
  • This paper aims to evaluate the applicability of dam inflow prediction model using recurrent neural network theory. To achieve this goal, the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model and the Elman Recurrent Neural Network(RNN) model were applied to hydro-meteorological data sets for the Soyanggang dam and the Chungju dam basin during dam operation period. For the model training, inflow, rainfall, temperature, sunshine duration, wind speed were used as input data and daily inflow of dam for 10 days were used for output data. The verification was carried out through dam inflow prediction between July, 2016 and June, 2018. The results showed that there was no significant difference in prediction performance between ANN model and the Elman RNN model in the Soyanggang dam basin but the prediction results of the Elman RNN model are comparatively superior to those of the ANN model in the Chungju dam basin. Consequently, the Elman RNN prediction performance is expected to be similar to or better than the ANN model. The prediction performance of Elman RNN was notable during the low dam inflow period. The performance of the multiple hidden layer structure of Elman RNN looks more effective in prediction than that of a single hidden layer structure.

Performance Analysis and Pitch Control of Dual-Rotor Wind Turbine Generator System (Dual-Rotor 풍력 발전 시스템 성능 해석 및 피치 제어에 관한 연구)

  • Cho, Yun-Mo;No, Tae-Soo;Jung, Sung-Nam;Kim, Ji-Yon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.33 no.7
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    • pp.40-50
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    • 2005
  • In this paper, preliminary results for performance prediction of a dual-rotor wind turbine generator system are presented. Blade element and momentum theories are used to model the aerodynamic forces and moments acting on the rotor blades, and multi-body dynamics approach is used to integrate the major components to represent the overall system. Not only the steady-state performance but the transient response characteristics are analyzed. Pitch control strategy to control the rotor speed and the generator output is proposed and its performance is verified through the nonlinear simulation.

Prediction of Velocity of Shot Ball with Blade Shapes based on Discrete Element Analysis (이산요소해석에 기초한 블레이드 형상에 따른 숏볼의 투사속도 예측)

  • Kim, Tae-Hyung;Lee, Seung-Ho;Jung, Chan-Gi
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Mechanical Technology
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.844-851
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    • 2018
  • In this study, the regression equation was suggested to predict of the shot ball velocity according to blade shapes based on discrete element (DE) analysis. First, the flat type blade DE model was used in the analysis, the validity of the DE model was verified by giving that the velocity of the shot ball almost equal to the theoretical one. Next, the DE analyses for curved and combined blade models was accomplished, and their analytical velocities of shot ball were compared with the theoretical one. The velocity of combined blade model was greatest. From this, the regression equation for velocity of shot ball according to the blade shape based on the DE analysis was derived. Additionally, the wind speed measurement experiment was carried out, and the experimental result and analytical one were the same. Ultimately, it was confirmed that the prediction method of the velocity of shot ball based on DE analysis was effective.

Study on the Local Weather Characteristics using Observation Data at the Boseong Tall Tower (보성 종합기상탑 자료를 활용한 국지기상 특성 연구)

  • Hwang, Sung Eun;Lee, Young Tae;Shin, Seung Sook;Kim, Ki Hoon
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.459-468
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    • 2020
  • In this study, the selection criteria for the occurrence of sea breezes in the Boseong area during the spring season (March-May) of 2016-2017 were prepared for the analysis of vertical weather characteristics. For this purpose, wind speed values were determined using the measured precipitation, cloud volume, wind direction, the difference between the ground and sea temperature, a wind Profiler at an altitude of 1 km, and numerical model data. The dates of the sea breezes in Boseong were classified according to the selection criteria, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the sea breezes were identified by analyzing the time and altitude of the sea breeze and the size of the wind speed. Sea breezes occurred 23 out of 183 days (12%), and in Boseong, at least 1.2 out of 10 spring days exhibited sea breezes. Sea winds ranged from 1200 to 1800 LST, mainly from ground to 700 m altitude during the day. In addition, the maximum wind speed averaged 4.9 m s-1, at an altitude of 40 m at 1600 LST, showing relatively lower values than those in a preceding study. This seems to be owing to the reduction in wind speed due to the complexity of the coastal terrain.

Dynamically Induced Anomalies of the Japan/East Sea Surface Temperature

  • Trusenkova, Olga;Lobanov, Vyacheslav;Kaplunenko, Dmitry
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.11-29
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    • 2009
  • Variability of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Japan/East Sea (JES) was studied using complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis. Two daily data sets were analyzed: (1) New Generation 0.05o-gridded SST from Tohoku University, Japan (July 2002-July 2006), and (2) 0.25o-gridded SST from the Japan Meteorological Agency (October 1993-November 2006). Linkages with wind stress curl were revealed using 6-h 1o-gridded surface zonal and meridional winds from ancillary data of the Sea- WiFS Project, a special National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) product (1998-2005). SST anomalies (SSTA) were obtained by removing the seasonal signal, estimated as the leading mode of the CEOF decomposition of the original SST. Leading CEOF modes of residual SSTA obtained from both data sets were consistent with each other and were characterized by annual, semiannual, and quasi-biennial time scales estimated with 95% statistical significance. The Semiannual Mode lagged 2 months behind the increased occurrence of the anticyclonic (AC) wind stress curl over the JES. Links to dynamic processes were investigated by numerical simulations using an oceanic model. The suggested dynamic forcings of SSTA are the inflow of subtropical water into the JES through the Korea Strait, divergence in the surface layer induced by Ekman suction, meridional shifts of the Subarctic Front in the western JES, AC eddy formation, and wind-driven strengthening/weakening of large-scale currents. Events of west-east SSTA movement were identified in July-September. The SSTA moved from the northeastern JES towards the continental coast along the path of the westward branch of the Tsushima Current at a speed consistent with the advective scale.