• 제목/요약/키워드: predicted deviation

검색결과 294건 처리시간 0.024초

정규 확률과정을 사용한 공조 시스템의 전력 소모량 예측에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Prediction of Power Consumption in the Air-Conditioning System by Using the Gaussian Process)

  • 이창용;송근수;김진호
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제39권1호
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    • pp.64-72
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    • 2016
  • In this paper, we utilize a Gaussian process to predict the power consumption in the air-conditioning system. As the power consumption in the air-conditioning system takes a form of a time-series and the prediction of the power consumption becomes very important from the perspective of the efficient energy management, it is worth to investigate the time-series model for the prediction of the power consumption. To this end, we apply the Gaussian process to predict the power consumption, in which the Gaussian process provides a prior probability to every possible function and higher probabilities are given to functions that are more likely consistent with the empirical data. We also discuss how to estimate the hyper-parameters, which are parameters in the covariance function of the Gaussian process model. We estimated the hyper-parameters with two different methods (marginal likelihood and leave-one-out cross validation) and obtained a model that pertinently describes the data and the results are more or less independent of the estimation method of hyper-parameters. We validated the prediction results by the error analysis of the mean relative error and the mean absolute error. The mean relative error analysis showed that about 3.4% of the predicted value came from the error, and the mean absolute error analysis confirmed that the error in within the standard deviation of the predicted value. We also adopt the non-parametric Wilcoxon's sign-rank test to assess the fitness of the proposed model and found that the null hypothesis of uniformity was accepted under the significance level of 5%. These results can be applied to a more elaborate control of the power consumption in the air-conditioning system.

Prediction of Future Milk Yield with Random Regression Model Using Test-day Records in Holstein Cows

  • Park, Byoungho;Lee, Deukhwan
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제19권7호
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    • pp.915-921
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    • 2006
  • Various random regression models with different order of Legendre polynomials for permanent environmental and genetic effects were constructed to predict future milk yield of Holstein cows in Korea. A total of 257,908 test-day (TD) milk yield records from a total of 28,135 cows belonging to 1,090 herds were considered for estimating (co)variance of the random covariate coefficients using an expectation-maximization REML algorithm in an animal mixed model. The variances did not change much between the models, having different order of Legendre polynomial, but a decreasing trend was observed with increase in the order of Legendre polynomial in the model. The R-squared value of the model increased and the residual variance reduced with the increase in order of Legendre polynomial in the model. Therefore, a model with $5^{th}$ order of Legendre polynomial was considered for predicting future milk yield. For predicting the future milk yield of cows, 132,771 TD records from 28,135 cows were randomly selected from the above data by way of preceding partial TD record, and then future milk yields were estimated using incomplete records from each cow randomly retained. Results suggested that we could predict the next four months milk yield with an error deviation of 4 kg. The correlation of more than 70% between predicted and observed values was estimated for the next four months milk yield. Even using only 3 TD records of some cows, the average milk yield of Korean Holstein cows would be predicted with high accuracy if compared with observed milk yield. Persistency of each cow was estimated which might be useful for selecting the cows with higher persistency. The results of the present study suggested the use of a $5^{th}$ order Legendre polynomial to predict the future milk yield of each cow.

선박용 디젤 엔진 크랭크 스로 부품용 S34MnV강의 피로한도에 대한 신뢰도 예측 (Prediction of Reliability of Fatigue Limit of S34MnV Steel for Marine Diesel Engine Crank Throw Components)

  • 김선진;공유식
    • 대한기계학회논문집A
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    • 제40권8호
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    • pp.751-757
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    • 2016
  • 본 논문은 스테어케이스법을 사용하여 크랭크 스로 부품용 S34MnV강의 피로한도의 신뢰도를 평가하는 것이다. 크랭크 스로 부품의 소재는 S34MnV이며, 뜨임 및 풀림 열처리된 단조강이다. 본 연구에서는 설계피로강도의 신뢰도를 예측하기 위해 축 하중 일정진폭 피로시험을 수행하였다. 시험편은 평균응력 0 MPa의 동일한 응력부하를 적용하였고, 즉 응력비는 -1로 하였다. 피로시험 결과는 Dixon-Mood 접근법으로 평가하였다. 스테어케이스법에 의해 예측된 피로강도의 평균과 표준편차는 각각 296.3 MPa 및 10.6 MPa로 나타났다. 마지막으로 어떤 임의의 파손 확률에 대한 피로강도의 신뢰도를 예측하였다. 본 연구에서 제안한 예측법은 단조강의 설계 최적화를 위한 피로강도 값을 결정할 수 있다.

Prediction of 305 Days Milk Production from Early Records in Dairy Cattle Using an Empirical Bayes Method

  • Pereira, J.A.C.;Suzuki, M.;Hagiya, K.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • 제14권11호
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    • pp.1511-1515
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    • 2001
  • A prediction of 305 d milk production from early records using an empirical Bayes method (EBM) was performed. The EBM was compared with the best predicted estimation (BPE), test interval method (TIM), and the linearized Wood's model (LWM). Daily milk yields were obtained from 606 first lactation Japanese Holstein cows in three herds. From each file of 305 daily records, 10 random test day records with an interval of approximately one month were taken. The accuracies of these methods were compared using the absolute difference (AD) and the standard deviation (SD) of the differences between the actual and the estimated 305 d milk production. The results showed that in the early stage of the lactation, EBM was superior in obtaining the prediction with high accuracy. When all the herds were analyzed jointly, the AD during the first 5 test day records were on average 373, 590, 917 and 1,042 kg for EBM, BPE, TIM, and LWM, respectively. Corresponding SD for EBM, BPE, TIM, and LWM were on average 488, 733, 747 and 1,605 kg. When the herds were analyzed separately, the EBM predictions retained high accuracy. When more information on the actual lactation was added to the prediction, TIM and LWM gradually achieved better accuracies. Finally, in the last period of the lactation, the accuracy of both of the methods exceeded EBM and BPM. The AD for the last 2 samples analyzing all the herds jointly were on average 141, 142, 164, and 214 kg for LWM, TIM, EBM, and BPE, respectively. In the current practices of collecting monthly records, early prediction of future milk production may be more accurate using EBM. Alternatively, if enough information of the actual lactation is accumulated, TIM may obtain better accuracy in the latter stage of lactation.

Colorectal Cancer Trends in Kerman Province, the Largest Province in Iran, with Forecasting until 2016

  • Roya, Nikbakht;Abbas, Bahrampour
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.791-793
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    • 2013
  • Colorectal cancer is one of the most common cancers. The aim of this study is determination its trends in Kerman province and individual cities separately until year 2016. This analytical and modeling study was based of cancer registry data of Kerman University of Medical Sciences, collected during 2001-2010. Among 20,351 cancer case, 792 were colorectal cancer cases in age group 18-93 years with a mean of 59.4 and standard deviation of 15.1. By applying time series and data trends, incidences were predicted until 2016 for the province and each city, with adjustment for population size. In colorectal cases, 413 (52%) were male, and 379 (48%) were female. The annual increasing rate in Kerman province overall was and can be expected to be 6%, and in the cities of the province Rafsanjan, Bardsir, Bam, Kerman, Baft, Sirjan, Jiroft, Kahnuj and Manujan had an increasing range from 5 to 14% by the year 2016. But in Ravar, Zarand and Shahrbabak reduction in rates of at least 2% could be predicted. The time series showed that the trend of colorectal cancer in female will increase 15% and in male 7% by year 2016. Given the trend of this cancer is increasing so that resources will be consumed in the treatment of the patients, efforts shoudlbe focused on prevention and early diagnosis of the disease. Screening could have an important role leading to improved survival.

신경망 이론을 이용한 노면온도예측모형 개발 (Development of a Surface Temperature Prediction Model Using Neural Network Theory)

  • 김인수;양충헌;최기주
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제32권6호
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    • pp.686-693
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구에서는 도로기상정보체계에서 습득할 수 있는 노면온도자료를 활용하여 신경망 이론을 통해 노면온도를 예측하는 모형을 개발하였다. 이를 위해 수집된 노면온도자료(노면온도, 대기온도, 대기습도)를 가지고 1시간, 2시간, 그리고 3시간 후의 노면온도를 예측할 수 있는 신경망을 설계하였다. 청원-상주간 고속도로를 대상으로 모형을 수행한 결과, 예측치와 관측치에 대한 편차의 표준편차가 1시간 예측인 경우 $0.55^{\circ}C$, 2시간 예측인 경우 $1.27^{\circ}C$, 3시간 예측인 경우 $1.43^{\circ}C$를 나타났다. 또한 예측된 노면온도를 실제 관측한 자료와 비교한 결과 R2 값이 각각 0.985, 0.923, 0.903으로 나타나 모형의 설명력이 높은 것으로 판단된다.

간척지 밭작물의 관개용수량 추정을 위한 토양염분예측모형 개발 (Soil Salt Prediction Modeling for the Estimation of Irrigation Water Requirements for Dry Field Crops in Reclaimed Tidelands)

  • 손재권;구자웅;최진규
    • 한국농공학회지
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    • 제36권2호
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    • pp.96-110
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    • 1994
  • The purpose of this study is to develop soil salt prediction model for the estimation of irrigation water requirements for dry field crops in reclaimed tidelands. The simulation model based on water balance equation, salt balance equation, and salt storage equation was developed for daily prediction of sa]t concentration in root zone. The data obtained from field measurement during the growing period of tomato were used to evaluate the applicability of this model. The results of this study are summarized as follows: 1.The optimum irrigation point which maximizes the crop yield in reclaimed tidelands of silt loam soil while maintaining the salt concentration within the tolerance level, ws found to be pF 1.6, and total irrigation requirement after transplanting was 602mm(6.7 mm/day)for tomato. 2.When the irrigation point was pF 1.6, the deviation between predicted and measured salt concentration was less than 4 % at the significance level of 1 7% 3.Since the deviations between predicted and measured values data decrease as the amount of irrigation water increases, the proposed model appear to be more suitable for use in reclaimed tidelands. 4.The amount of irrigation water estimated by the simulation model was 7.2mm/day in the average for cultivating tomato at the optimum irrigation point of pF 1.6.The simulation model proposed in this study can be generalized by applying it to other crops. This, model, also, could be further improved and extended to estimate desalinization effects in reclaimed tidelands by including meteorological effect, capillary phenomenon, and infiltration.

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DMF함유 혼합 유기용제에 대한 인화점의 측정과 평가 (Measurement and Evaluation of Flash Point for the DMF Contained Organic Solvent Mixtures)

  • 이정석;한우섭;이근원
    • 한국화재소방학회논문지
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    • 제33권4호
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2019
  • 본 연구에서는 합성피혁 제조 공정에서 주로 사용되는 혼합 유기용제 중에서 디메틸포름아마이드(Dimethylformamide, DMF)를 기준물질로 톨루엔과 메틸에틸케톤 등이 혼합된 2성분 및 3성분 혼합물질 7종류에 대하여 국제적으로 표준화된 시험방법을 이용하여 인화점을 측정하였다. 그리고 몇 가지 예측모델을 이용하여 인화점을 예측하고 실험결과와 비교하였다. 그 결과, 2성분 혼합물에서 DMF 몰분율이 약 0.7 이하인 경우는 혼합물의 인화점이 25 ℃이하로 관측되어, 고인화점 물질의 혼합에 의한 인화점상승에 대한 효과가 작은 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 평균온도차이를 이용하여 각 모델별 예측값을 평가한 결과, 르샤틀리에 모델의 경우가 1.95 ℃로 측정값에 가장 근사한 것으로 나타났다.

The Effects of Resting Physical Factors on Distance and Intensity of Six-Minute Walk Test in Healthy Female Subjects

  • Kang, Dong-Yeon;Lee, Hye Young
    • The Journal of Korean Physical Therapy
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    • 제29권5호
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    • pp.281-286
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    • 2017
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the correlations among the resting physical factors related to a six-minute walk test (6MWT) and to determine the effects of the resting physical factors on the distance and intensity related to the 6MWT in healthy female subjects. Methods: A total of 43 healthy female subjects ($22.84{\pm}3.90yrs$) participated in this study. They performed the 6MWT, and the physical factors related to the 6MWT were assessed. SPSS 20.0 was used to analyze the data, and the mean and standard deviation were calculated, and the collected data were analyzed by the Pearson's correlation coefficient (among physical factors related to 6MWT) and independent t-test (between six-minute walk distance [6MWD] groups and six-minute walk intensity [6MWI] groups). Results: The 6MWD had a significant negative correlation with the resting HR (beat/min) in healthy female subjects (r=-0.49, p<0.05). The 6MWI had a significant negative correlation with the resting systolic blood pressure (SBP) (r=-0.45, p<0.01). A comparison of the 6MWD revealed the long distance group (LDG, 700-799 m) to be significantly higher than the middle distance group (MDG, 600-699 m) in the 6MWI (%), %predicted distance (%), predicted VO2max (mL/kg/min), resting HR (beat/min), and resting SBP (mmHg)(p<0.05). In the comparison of 6MWI, the moderate intensity group (MIG, 64-75%HRmax) was significantly lower than the low intensity group (LIG, 50-63%HRmax) in the resting SBP (mmHg) (p<0.05). Conclusion: These results suggest that the resting physical factors are related to the 6MWD and 6MWI of the 6MWT in healthy females. In particular, SBP is associated with not only the 6MWD but also the 6MWI in 6MWT.

국내 Rural 전파환경에서의 DTV 전계강도 예측모델 분석 (Analysis of Prediction Models for DTV Field Strength in Domestic Rural Propagation Environment)

  • 강영흥;정재필
    • 한국항행학회논문지
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    • 제17권6호
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    • pp.638-645
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    • 2013
  • 유한한 주파수 자원을 효율적으로 이용하기 위해서는 무선국 설계시 지역별 전파환경에 기반한 전파전달 특성을 정확히 예측하여 무선국의 송신출력 및 서비스 커버리지 등을 설계하는 것이 필요하다. 따라서 세계 각국에서는 자국의 환경에 맞는 전파모델을 확보하려고 노력하고 있으며, 국내에서도 BCAST와 같은 모델이 개발되어 전파분석에 이용되어 왔지만, 아직도 측정결과와 상이한 결과를 제공하고 있다. 이에 본 연구에서는 국내 Rural 지역의 DTV 방송서비스에 대해 측정한 후, 측정된 데이터와 SMIS 예측모델 P.1546 및 BCAST에 대한 실측/예측 비교분석 및 이의 오차 분석을 수행하여 SMIS 향후 개선방안을 제시한다. ITU-R 권고안 P.1546 및 BCAST 모델적용에 있어 실측/예측 오차, 특히 BCAST 모델인 경우 측정치 보다 높게 예측되는 문제점 등이 도출되어, 향후 숲과 나무에 의한 페이딩, 호수 및 바다에 의한 전파반사 등에 대한 정밀한 분석이 필요하다.