• 대기
• /
• 제26권1호
• /
• pp.59-72
• /
• 2016

The comparison of prediction errors in geopotential height, temperature, and precipitation forecasts is made quantitatively to evaluate medium-range forecast skills between Global Seasonal Forecasting System version 5 (GloSea5) and Unified Model (UM) in operation by Korea Meteorological Administration during 2014. In addition, the performances in prediction of sea surface temperature anomaly in NINO3.4 region, Madden and Julian Oscillation (MJO) index, and tropical storms in western north Pacific are evaluated. The result of evaluations appears that the forecast skill of UM with lower values of root-mean square error is generally superior to GloSea5 during forecast periods (0 to 12 days). The forecast error tends to increase rapidly in GloSea5 during the first half of the forecast period, and then it shows down so that the skill difference between UM and GloSea5 becomes negligible as the forecast time increases. Precipitation forecast of GloSea5 is not as bad as expected and the skill is comparable to that of UM during 10-day forecasts. Especially, in predictions of sea surface temperature in NINO3.4 region, MJO index, and tropical storms in western Pacific, GloSea5 shows similar or better performance than UM. Throughout comparison of forecast skills for main meteorological elements and weather extremes during medium-range, the effects of initial and model errors in atmosphere-ocean coupled model are verified and it is suggested that GloSea5 is useful system for not only seasonal forecasts but also short- and medium-range forecasts.

• 한국지리정보학회지
• /
• 제2권2호
• /
• pp.69-78
• /
• 1999

본 논문에서는 한반도의 지역별 강수량 예측을 위한 신경망 기법을 소개한다. 시계열 패턴 예측 문제에 적용될 수 있는 기존의 다양한 신경망 모델의 특성을 분석하고 이로부터 강수량 예측 문제에 적합한 모델 및 학습 알고리즘을 제시한다. 본 논문에서 제시하는 모델은 계층적구조의 신경망으로 각 노드의 출력값은 일정기간동안 버퍼에 저장되어 상위계층에 입력으로 작용한다. 본 연구에서는 제안된 모델에 대하여 이중연결형태의 시냅스 구조를 채택하고, 이에 대한 네트워크의 동작특성과 학습알고리즘 등을 정의한다. 이러한 이중연결구조는 기존의 다층퍼셉트론에서 바이어스 노드의 역할을 담당하며, 노드가 갖는 특징들간의 관계를 효과적으로 반영함으로써 기존의 전형적인 시계열 예측 신경망인 FIR(Finite Impulse Response) 네트워크와 비교할 때 학습의 효율을 개선시킨다. 제시된 이론은 월별 및 계절별 강수량 예측 실험에 적용하였다. 신경망 예측기의 학습자료로서 과거 수십년동안 관측된 강수량 데이터와 해수표면온도 데이터를 사용하며 예측 실험결과로부터 제시된 이론의 타당성을 고찰한다.

• 한국지구과학회지
• /
• 제35권1호
• /
• pp.41-53
• /
• 2014

겨울철 동해안 강수 현상에 대한 규명을 위하여 라디오존데를 활용한 특별관측을 2012년 1월 5일부터 2월 29일까지 실시하였고, 이 연구는 대기의 불안정을 나타내는 다양한 변수를 활용하여 강수 사례의 분석을 수행하였다. 그 결과, 강수가 발생할 때 지표면(1000 hPa)에서 중층(약 750 hPa)까지의 상당온위가 증가하는 것을 볼 수 있었고, 이러한 대기층(1000~750 hPa)은 불안정을 일으키기에 충분한 수준의 수증기를 함유하고 있었다. 대류가용잠재에너지의 시간적인 변화를 살펴본 결과 강수가 발생하였을 때 증가하는 것을 볼 수 있었고, 연직바람쉬어의 경우에서도 대류가용잠재에너지와 마찬가지로 강수 기간 동안 상승하여 일정수준 이상의 값을 유지하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 강수에 따른 대기 구조의 상세한 분석을 위하여 지상 원격 탐사 자료와 지상 관측 자료를 활용하여 분석을 수행하였다. 또한 가강수량과 바람벡터를 이용하여 가강수량플럭스를 계산하였다. 가강수량플럭스와 강수량은 북동풍 계열의 바람이 발생하였을 때 높은 관계성을 보였다. 그 결과 동해안영역에서 발생하는 강수 현상에서는 풍계와 같은 역학적인 작용의 이해가 중요한 것으로 판단되었다.

• 대기
• /
• 제32권4호
• /
• pp.353-365
• /
• 2022

This paper evaluates precipitation forecast skill of Global/Regional Integrated Model system (GRIMs) over South Korea in a boreal winter from December 2013 to February 2014. Three types of precipitation are classified based on development mechanism: 1) convection type (C type), 2) low pressure type (L type), and 3) orographic type (O type), in which their frequencies are 44.4%, 25.0%, and 30.6%, respectively. It appears that the model significantly overestimates precipitation occurrence (0.1 mm d^-1) for all types of winter precipitation. Objective measured skill scores of GRIMs are comparably high for L type and O type. Except for precipitation occurrence, the model shows high predictability for L type precipitation with the most unbiased prediction. It is noted that Equitable Threat Score (ETS) is inappropriate for measuring rare events due to its high dependency on the sample size, as in the case of Critical Success Index as well. The Symmetric Extreme Dependency Score (SEDS) demonstrates less sensitivity on the number of samples. Thus, SEDS is used for the evaluation of prediction skill to supplement the limit of ETS. The evaluation via SEDS shows that the prediction skill score for L type is the highest in the range of 5.0, 10.0 mm d^-1 and the score for O type is the highest in the range of 1.0, 20.0 mm d^-1. C type has the lowest scores in overall range. The difference in precipitation forecast skill by precipitation type can be explained by the spatial distribution and intensity of precipitation in each representative case.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
• /
• 제46권12호
• /
• pp.1249-1263
• /
• 2013

장기간의 가뭄에 의한 피해를 최소화하기 위해서는 유역에 적합한 가뭄관리 대책의 수립과 함께 미래에 발생하게 될 가뭄을 미리 예측할 수 있는 기술이 구축되어야 한다. 또한 미래의 가뭄에 대한 합리적 대응 방안을 수립하기 위해서는 가뭄의 지속기간(duration)과 심도(severity)의 정량적인 예측이 선행되어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 수문 시계열의 예측에 가장 많이 이용되고 있는 대표적인 통계학적 기법인 인공신경망 모형(Artificial Neural Network Model)과 가뭄지수를 이용하여 남한지역의 서울, 대전, 대구, 광주 등의 4개 기상관측소를 선정하여 가뭄예측을시도하였다. 가뭄 예측을 위하여 남한지역 내 선정한 기상관측소의 관측된 과거 강수량 자료를 이용하여 산정된 SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index)를 입력변수로 하여 다층 퍼셉트론(Multi Layer Perceptron) 인공신경망 모델에 적용하였으며, 매개변수 보정을 위한 학습기간으로 1976~2000년과 2001~2010년을 예측을 위한 검증기간으로 선정하여, 학습 및 예측을 시도하였다. 학습된 최적의 예측모형을 이용하여 서로 다른 선행예보시간(1~6개월)을 갖고 SPI (3), SPI (6), SPI (12)별로 가뭄을 예측하였으며, 가뭄예측 결과, SPI (3)의 경우에는 1개월 선행예보에서만 좋은 결과를 나타내었으며, SPI (6)의 경우 1~3개월 후의 가뭄을 예측하는 경우에 비교적 관측자료와 잘 일치하는 결과를 나타내었다. SPI (12)의 경우에는 약5개월 후까지의 가뭄예측에 양호한 결과를 나타내었다.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2016년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.197-197
• /
• 2016

Forecasting future drought events in a region plays a major role in water management and risk assessment of drought occurrences. The creeping characteristics of drought make it possible to mitigate drought's effects with accurate forecasting models. Drought forecasts are inevitably plagued by uncertainties, making it necessary to derive forecasts in a probabilistic framework. In this study, a new probabilistic scheme is proposed to forecast droughts, in which a discrete-time finite state-space hidden Markov model (HMM) is used aggregated with the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP) precipitation projection (HMM-RCP). The 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI) is employed to assess the drought severity over the selected five stations in South Kore. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is used for inference on the model parameters which includes several hidden states and the state specific parameters. We perform an RCP precipitation projection transformed SPI (RCP-SPI) weight-corrected post-processing for the HMM-based drought forecasting to derive a probabilistic forecast that considers uncertainties. Results showed that the HMM-RCP forecast mean values, as measured by forecasting skill scores, are much more accurate than those from conventional models and a climatology reference model at various lead times over the study sites. In addition, the probabilistic forecast verification technique, which includes the ranked probability skill score and the relative operating characteristic, is performed on the proposed model to check the performance. It is found that the HMM-RCP provides a probabilistic forecast with satisfactory evaluation for different drought severity categories, even with a long lead time. The overall results indicate that the proposed HMM-RCP shows a powerful skill for probabilistic drought forecasting.

• 한국산림과학회지
• /
• 제99권2호
• /
• pp.197-203
• /
• 2010

The data of average temperature, average relative humidity, precipitation and average wind speed were collected from 674 meteorological stations in China. A specific procedure that processes original data into a new data format needed in forest fire danger rating forecast system of China was introduced systematically, and the feasibility of this method was validated in this paper. In addition, a set of meteorological data processing software was constructed by the secondary development of GIS in order to realize automation of processing data for the system. Results showed that the approach preformed well in handling temperature, average relative humidity and average wind speed, and the processing effect of precipitation was acceptable. Moreover, the automated procedure could be achieved by GIS and the working efficiency was about 3 times as much as that of manual handling. The informationization level of processing meteorological data was greatly enhanced.

• 산업경영시스템학회지
• /
• 제33권3호
• /
• pp.162-168
• /
• 2010

Information is known to be a key element for the successful operation of a supply chain, which is required of the efficient ordering strategies and accurate predictions of demands. This study proposes a method to effectively utilize the meteorological forecast information in order to make decisions about ordering and prediction of demands by using the Taguchi experimental design. It is supposed that each echelon in a supply chain determines the order quantity with the prediction of precipitation in the next day based on probability forecast information. The precipitation event is predicted when the probability of the precipitation exceeds a chosen threshold. Accordingly, the choice of the threshold affect the performances of a supply chain. The Taguchi method is adopted to deduce a set of thresholds for echelons which is least sensitive to changes in environmental conditions, such as variability of demand distributions and production periods. A simulation of the beer distribution game was conducted to show that the set of thresholds found by the Taguchi method can reduce the cumulative chain cost, which consists of inventory and backlog costs.

• International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics Korean Journal of Geophysical Research
• /
• 제26권1호
• /
• pp.31-41
• /
• 1998

The climatic characteristics of summer in 1998 are analyzed with the weather observational data and the upper air observational data. The temperature of that period is lower than that of normal years and the precipitation is larger. Due to the heavy rainfall which started at July 31, rain pured down compared to normal years and the maximum precipitation recorded at the many observational stations, particularly in Seoul, Kyunggi-Do region and mountanious districts like Taegwallyong, Mt. Sokri and Mt. Chiri. The patterns of general circulations in 1982/98 and 1997/98 are compared each other and are analyzed. The anomaly patterns of stream functions on winter in two El Nio years are simialr. The counterclockwise circulation occurred near the date line and the clockwise circulation was appeared near the Hwanam region and Alaska. These patterns are opposite to those of La Nia year, 1988/89. And the anomaly patterns of 500hPa geopotential height in summer are similar, too. The low temperature and much rain were dominated in summer of 1997/98. These phenomena is similar to the existing results of research, that temperature is low and precipitation is large in summer of El Nio years.

• 대기
• /
• 제30권4호
• /
• pp.405-420
• /
• 2020

In this study, we investigate the predictability of intraseasonal monthly temperature and precipitation variations using hindcast datasets from eight global circulation models participating in the operational multi-model ensemble (MME) seasonal prediction system of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Climate Center for the 1983~2010 period. These intraseasonal monthly variations are defined by categorical deterministic analysis. The monthly temperature and precipitation are categorized into above normal (AN), near normal (NN), and below normal (BN) based on the σ-value ± 0.43 after standardization. The nine patterns of intraseasonal monthly variation are defined by considering the changing pattern of the monthly categories for the three consecutive months. A deterministic and a probabilistic analysis are used to define intraseasonal monthly variation for the multi-model consisting of numerous ensemble members. The results show that a pattern (pattern 7), which has the same monthly categories in three consecutive months, is the most frequently occurring pattern in observation regardless of the seasons and variables. Meanwhile, the patterns (e.g., patterns 8 and 9) that have consistently increasing or decreasing trends in three consecutive months, such as BN-NN-AN or AN-NN-BN, occur rarely in observation. The MME and eight individual models generally capture pattern 7 well but rarely capture patterns 8 and 9.