• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.61 no.3
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• pp.1-14
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• 2019

North Korea has frequently suffered from extreme agricultural crop droughts, which have led to food shortages, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The increasing frequency of extreme droughts, due to global warming and climate change, has increased the importance of enhancing the national capacity for drought management. Historically, a meteorological drought index based on data collected from weather stations has been widely used. But it has limitations in terms of the distribution of weather stations and the spatial pattern of drought impacts. Satellite-based data can be obtained with the same accuracy and at regular intervals, and is useful for long-term change analysis and environmental monitoring and wide area access in time and space. The Evaporative Stress Index (ESI), a satellite-based drought index using the ratio of potential and actual evaporation, is being used to detect drought response as a index of the droughts occurring rapidly over short periods of time. It is more accurate and provides faster analysis of drought conditions compared to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). In this study, we analyze drought events during 2015-2017 in North Korea using the ESI satellite-based drought index to determine drought response by comparing with it with the SPI and SPEI drought indices.

• Membrane and Water Treatment
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.1-11
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• 2019

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) predicted that recent extreme hydrological events would affect water quality and aggravate various forms of water pollution. To analyze changes in water quality due to future climate change, input data (precipitation, average temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed and sunlight) were established using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario suggested by the AR5 and calculated the future runoff for each target period (Reference:1989-2015; I: 2016-2040; II: 2041-2070; and III: 2071-2099) using the semi-distributed land use-based runoff processes (SLURP) model. Meteorological factors that affect water quality (precipitation, temperature and runoff) were inputted into the multiple linear regression analysis (MLRA) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to analyze water quality data, dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorus (T-P). Future water quality prediction of the Anseongcheon River basin shows that DO at Gongdo station in the river will drop by 35% in autumn by the end of the $21^{st}$ century and that BOD, COD and SS will increase by 36%, 20% and 42%, respectively. Analysis revealed that the oxygen demand at Dongyeongyo station will decrease by 17% in summer and BOD, COD and SS will increase by 30%, 12% and 17%, respectively. This study suggests that there is a need to continuously monitor the water quality of the Anseongcheon River basin for long-term management. A more reliable prediction of future water quality will be achieved if various social scenarios and climate data are taken into consideration.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.178-178
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• 2023

Drought and flooding have historically coexisted in Korea, occurring at different times and with varying cycles and trends. The drought indicators measured were (PDSI), (SPI), and (SPEI) in order to statistically analyze the annual or periodic drought occurrence and objectively evaluate statistical characteristics such as the periodicity, tendency, and frequency of occurrence of droughts in the Doam watershed. To compute potential evapotranspiration (PET), both Thornthwaite (Thor) and Penman-Monteith (PM) parameterizations were considered, and the differences between the two PET estimators were analyzed. Hence, SPIs 3 and SPIs 6 revealed a tendency to worsen drought in the spring and winter and a tendency to alleviate drought in the summer in the study area. The seasonal variability trend did not occur in the SPIs 12 and PDSI, as it did in the drought index over a short period. As a result of the drought trend study, the drought from winter to spring gets more severe, in addition to the duration of the drought, although the periodicity of the recurrence of the drought ranged from 3 years to 6 years at the longest, indicating that SPIs 3 showed a brief time of around 1 year. SPIs 6 and SPIs 12 had a term of 4 to 6 years, and PDSI had a period of roughly 6 years. Based on the indicators of the PDSI, SPI, and SPEI, the drought severity increases under climate change conditions with the decrease in precipitation and increased water demand as a consequence of the temperature increase. Therefore, our findings show that national and practical measures are needed for both winter and spring droughts, which happen every year, as well as large-scale and extreme droughts, which happen every six years.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.169-169
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• 2020

According to the IPCC analysis, severe climate changes are projected to occur in Korea as the temperature is expected to rise by 3.2 ℃, the precipitation by 15.6% and the sea level by 27cm by 2050. It is predicted that the occurrence of abnormal climate phenomena - especially those such as increase of concentrated precipitation and extreme heat in the summer season and severe drought in the winter season - that have happened in Korea in the past 30 years (1981-2010) will continuously be intensified and accelerated. As a result, the impact on and vulnerability of the water management sector is expected to be exacerbated. This research aims to predict the climate change impacts on streamflow of Daecheong Lake area of Geum River in South Korea during the summer and winter seasons, which show extreme meteorological events, and ultimately develop an integrated policy model in response. We projected and compared the streamflow changes of Daecheong Lake area of Geum River in South Korea in the near future period (2020-2040) and the far future period (2041-2060) with the reference period (1991-2010) using the HEC-HMS model. The data from a global climate model HadGEM2-AO, which is the fully-coupled atmosphere-ocean version of the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model 2, and RCP scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were used as inputs for the HEC-HMS model to identify the river basins where cases of extreme flooding or drought are likely to occur in the near and far future. The projections were made for the summer season (July-September) and the winter season(November-January) in order to reflect the summer monsoon and the dry winter. The results are anticipated to be used by policy makers for preparation of adaptation plans to secure water resources in the nation.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2020.06a
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• pp.392-392
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• 2020

최근 기후변화로 인해 가뭄의 규모 및 발생 빈도가 증가하고 있으며, 1994-1995년, 2000-2001년 전국적으로 발생했던 가뭄 상황과 달리 2010년 이후의 가뭄은 지역별로 편중되어 내리는 강수때문에 국소적으로 발생하고 있다. 특히, 2011년부터 2018년까지 연속적으로 국지적인 가뭄이 발생하였고, 2017년에는 경기, 충남, 전남지역을 중심으로 극심한 가뭄이 발생하였다. 우리나라의 경우 강수부족으로 기상, 수문학적 가뭄이 발생한다고 하더라도 농업용 수리시설물에 의한 농업용수 공급이 가능하고, 양수장, 관정 등 농업용수 공급의 형태가 다양하기 때문에 실제로 농업현장에서 체감하는 농업가뭄피해는 시공간적으로 상이하다. 따라서, 강수 부족으로 인한 가뭄사상의 발생에 따른 수문기상학적 특성 및 시공간적인 분포 특성과 농업가뭄피해의 발생 현황, 농업용 저수지의 저수율 변화 및 농업용수 이용과의 관계는 향후 농업가뭄의 지역별 가뭄대책 수립에 중요한 기초자료로 활용할 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 농업가뭄에 대하여 정량적인 가뭄피해를 분석하기 위하여 지역별 가뭄발생면적 및 쌀 생산량과 가뭄사상의 수문기상학적 특성간의 상관성을 분석하고자 한다. 최근 40년간 강수량, 표준강수지수 (Standard Precipitation Index, SPI), 표준강수증발산지수(Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) 등의 가뭄지표인자와 쌀 생산량, 농업용 저수지 저수율 자료 등 관련 인자들을 수집하여, 농업가뭄발생 및 피해면적과의 정량적인 상관관계를 분석하고자 한다.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.66 no.1
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• pp.49-66
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• 2024

Extreme rainfall will become intense due to climate change, increasing inundation risk to agricultural land. Hydrological and hydraulic simulations for the entire watershed were conducted to analyze the impact of climate change. Rainfall data was collected based on past weather observation and SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway)5-8.5 climate change scenarios. Simulation for flood volume, reservoir operation, river level, and inundation of agricultural land was conducted through K-HAS (KRC Hydraulics & Hydrology Analysis System) and HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System). Various scenarios were selected, encompassing different periods of rainfall data, including the observed period (1973-2022), near-term future (2021-2050), mid-term future (2051-2080), and long-term future (2081-2100), in addition to probabilistic precipitation events with return periods of 20 years and 100 years. The inundation area of the Aho-Buin district was visualized through GIS (Geographic Information System) based on the results of the flooding analysis. The probabilistic precipitation of climate change scenarios was calculated higher than that of past observations, which affected the increase in reservoir inflow, river level, inundation time, and inundation area. The inundation area and inundation time were higher in the 100-year frequency. Inundation risk was high in the order of long-term future, near-term future, mid-term future, and observed period. It was also shown that the Aho and Buin districts were vulnerable to inundation. These results are expected to be used as fundamental data for assessing the risk of flooding for agricultural land and downstream watersheds under climate change, guiding drainage improvement projects, and making flood risk maps.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.36 no.4
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• pp.95-102
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• 1994

The series of the papers consist of three parts to describe the development, calibration, and applications of the flood forecasting models for the Youngsan Estuarine Dam located at the mouth of the Youngsan river. And this paper discusses the hydrologic model for inflow simulation at Naju station, which constitutes 64 percent of the drainage basin of 3521 .6km$^2$ in area. A simplified TANK model was formulated to simulate hourly runoff from rainfall And the model parameters were optirnized using historical storm data, and validated with the records. The results of this paper were summarized as follows. 1. The simplified TANK model was formulated to conceptualize the hourly rainfall-run-off relationships at a watershed with four tanks in series having five runoff outlets. The runoff from each outlet was assumed to be proportional to the storage exceeding a threshold value. And each tank was linked with a drainage hole from the upper one. 2. Fifteen storm events from four year records from 1984 to 1987 were selected for this study. They varied from 81 to 289rn'm The watershed averaged, hourly rainfall data were determined from those at fifteen raingaging stations using a Thiessen method. Some missing and unrealistic records at a few stations were estimated or replaced with the values determined using a reciprocal distance square method from abjacent ones. 3. An univariate scheme was adopted to calibrate the model parameters using historical records. Some of the calibrated parameters were statistically related to antecedent precipitation. And the model simulated the streamflow close to the observed, with the mean coefficient of determination of 0.94 for all storm events. 4. The simulated streamflow were in good agreement with the historical records for ungaged condition simulation runs. The mean coefficient of determination for the runs was 0.93, nearly the same as calibration runs. This may indicates that the model performs very well in flood forecasting situations for the watershed.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.32 no.1
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• pp.108-114
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• 2016

Sediment-laden water leads to water quality degradation in streams; therefore, best management practices must be implemented in the source area to control nonpoint source pollution. Field monitoring was implemented to measure precipitation, direct runoff, and sediment concentrations at a control plot and straw-applied plot to examine the effect on sediment reduction in this study. A hydrology model, which employs Curve Number (CN) to estimate direct runoff and the Universal Soil Loss Equation to estimate soil loss, was selected. Twenty-five storm events from October 2010 to July 2012 were observed at the control plot, and 14 storm events from April 2011 to July 2011 at the straw-applied plot. CN was calibrated for direct runoff, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination were 0.66 and 0.68 at the control plot. Direct runoff at the straw-applied plot was calibrated using the percentage direct runoff reduction. The estimated reduction in sediment load by direct runoff reduction calibration alone was acceptable. Therefore, direct runoff-sediment load behaviors in a hydrology model should be considered to estimate sediment load and the reduction thereof.

• Journal of Environmental Science International
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• v.21 no.12
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• pp.1511-1521
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• 2012

An attempt is made to analyse characteristic features of heavy rainfalls which occur at the metropolitan area of the Korean peninsular the on- and off- Changma season. For this, two representative heavy rainfall episodes are selected; one is the on-Changma season wherein a torrential rain episode happened at Goyang city on 12 July 2006, and the other is the off-Changma season, a heavy rainfall event in Seoul on 21 September 2006. Both recorded considerable amounts of precipitation, over 250mm in a half-day, which greatly exceeded the amount expected by numerical prediction models at those times, and caused great damage to property and life in the affected area. Similarities in the characteristics of both episodes were shown by; the location of upper-level jet streak and divergence fields of the upper wind over heavy rainfall areas, significantly high equivalent potential temperatures in the low atmospheric layer due to the entrainment of hot and humid air by the low-level jet, and the existence of very dry air and cold air pool in the middle layer of the atmosphere at the peak time of the rainfall events. Among them, differences in dynamic features of the low-level jet and the position of rainfall area along the low-level jet are remarkable.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.557-568
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• 2013

In this study, Calculated the nonpoint sources(NPS) load per unit area about various rainy events in vineyard of Nakdong River basin. NPS monitoring and calculation for NPS load per unit area were estimated from 'Investigation method of precipitation discharge(National Institute of Environmental Research, 2007)'. The evaluation of applicability for NPS load per unit by compared with prior research data and Total Maximum Daily Load(TMDL) data. Five target areas were each $2000m^2$, $1800m^2$, $1943m^2$, $2484m^2$, $864m^2$ and located in Gyeongsangbukdo Gyeongju, Gyeongsangbukdo Sangju, Gyeongsangnamdo Hapcheon in Korea. Since fruits were the only crop on the target area, the characteristics of stormwater discharge at survey sites could be evaluated independently. A total of 115 rainfall events in the Orchard area during five years(2008-2012) was surveyed, and 38 of them became stormwater discharge. In the Nakdong River watershed, average of event mean concentrations(EMCs) in Orchard area for biochemical oxyzen demand(BOD), Chemical oxyzen demand(COD), total nitrogen(T-N), total phosphorus(T-P) were 2.0mg/L, 10.1mg/L, 3.195mg/L, 0.578mg/L, respectively. NPS load per unit area in Orchard area showed BOD : $2.0kg/km^2{\cdot}day$, COD : $10.2kg/km^2{\cdot}day$, T-N : $3.220kg/km^2{\cdot}day$, T-P : $0.606kg/km^2{\cdot}day$.