• 대기
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.141-158
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• 2016

The objective of this study is to examine the impact of urban canopy and the horizontal resolution on simulated meteorological variables such as 10-m wind speed, 2-m temperature and precipitation using WRF model for a local, convective rainfall case. We performed four sensitivity tests by varying the use of urban canopy model (UCM) and the horizontal resolution, then compared the model results with observations of AWS network. The focus of our study is over the Seoul metropolitan area for a convective rainfall that occurred on 16 August 16 2015. The analysis shows that mean diurnal variation of temperature is better simulated by the model runs with UCM before the convective rainfall. However, after rainfall, model shows significant difference in air temperature among sensitivity tests depending on the simulated rainfall amount. The rainfall amount is significantly underestimated in 0.5 km resolution model run compared to 1.5 km resolution, particularly over the urban areas. This is due to earlier occurrence of light rainfall in 0.5 km resolution model. Earlier light rainfall in the afternoon eliminates convective instability significantly, which prevents occurrence of rainfall later in the evening. The use of UCM results in a higher maximum rainfall in the domain, which is due to higher temperature in model runs with urban canopy. Earlier occurrence of rainfall in 0.5 km resolution model is related to rapid growth of PBL. Enhanced mixing and higher temperature result in rapid growth of PBL, which provides more favorable conditions for convection in the 0.5 km resolution run with urban canopy. All sensitivity tests show dry bias, which also contributes to the occurrence of light precipitation throughout the simulation period.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제62권4호
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• pp.99-110
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• 2020

The objective of this study is to analyze the trend of changes in the water circulation rates under climate change by adopting the concept of WCR defined by the Ministry of Environment. With the need for sound water circulation recovery, the MOE proposed the idea of WCR as (1-direct flow/precipitation). The guideline for calculating WCR suggests the SCS method, which is only suitable for short term rainfall events. However, climate change, which affects WCR significantly, is a global phenomenon and happens gradually over a long period. Therefore, long-term trends in WCRs should also be considered when analyzing changes in WCR due to climate change. RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used to simulate future runoff. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was run under the future daily data from GCMs (General Circulation Models) after the calibration. In 2085s, monthly WCR decreased by 4.2-9.9% and 3.3-8.7% in April and October. However, the WCR in the winter increased as the precipitation during the winter decreased compared to the baseline. In the aspect of yearly WCR, the value showed a decrease in most GCMs in the mid-long future. In particular, in the case of the RCP 8.5 scenario, the WCR reduced 2-3 times rapidly than the RCP 4.5 scenario. The WCR of 2055s did not significantly differ from the 2025s, but the value declined by 0.6-2.8% at 2085s.

• 통합자연과학논문집
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• 제1권2호
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• pp.89-114
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• 2008

Interrelationship between heavy rainfalls and related with low-level jets(LLJ) is analyzed by using fifty cases of heavy rainfall events occurred over the Korean peninsula from 1992 to 2001. Those cases are classified with four synoptical features. There are 32% chances that the low pressure exist in heavy rainfall over than 150 mm per day case by case. Secondly Changma front and front zone account for 28% of all cases. The ratio of marine tropical boundary type and trough type record 22% and 18% respectively. The moist and warm south-westerly winds associated with low-level jets have been induced convective instability and baroclinic instability. Therefore, heavy rainfall due to the approach of a low pressure occurred at September and before Changma. During the period of Changma, this type has been happened heavy rainfall when low pressure and stationary front has vibrated south and north. Changma type has longer the duration time of precipitation than other types. Third type, located with marine Tropical boundary, have mainly rained in August and September. The last trough case locally downpoured in short time with developing cell. The occurrence low-level jets related to heavy rainfall has increased over 12.5 m/s wind speed. The result is that 43 heavy rainfalls out of 50 cases reach peak at the time of maximum precipitation intensity. Also, the variation of wet number and K-index corresponded with the variation of wind speed. It is found that the number of frequency of low-level jets with southwestward direction has been increased and these jets are mainly passed from the southwest toward to the northeast of the Korean peninsula in that time.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제16권10호
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• pp.1157-1167
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• 2007

In an effort to interpret the characteristics of fine particle concentrations in Busan, time variations of hourly monitored concentrations $PM_{10}$ (Particulate Matter with aerodynamic Diameter ${\le}10\;{\mu}m$) in Busan are analyzed for the period from 2000 to 2005. The characteristics of aerosol second generation formation process is also interpreted qualitatively, by using the statistical analysis of the meteorological variables including temperature, wind speed, and relative humidity. The result shows some significant annual, seasonal, weekly and diurnal variations of $PM_{10}$ concentrations. In particular, seasonal(i.e., spring) variations are governed by frequency of yellow sand events even for the non-yellow sand cases where yellow-sand days are eliminated in our analysis. However, in seasonal variation, summer season predominate lower $PM_{10}$ concentrations due to the frequent precipitation, and weekly and diurnal variations are both found to be reflecting the emission rate from traffic amount. Correlation coefficients between $PM_{10}$ concentration and meterological variables for non-yellow sand days show overall negative correlation with visibility, wind speed, cloud amounts, and relative humidity. However for non-precipitation days, during non-yellow sand period positive correlation are found clearly with relative humidity, suggesting the importance of secondary aerosol formation in Busan that can be achieved by both homogeneous aerosol formation and heterogeneous transformations resulting from hygroscopic aerosol characteristics.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2018년도 학술발표회
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• pp.155-155
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• 2018

Uncertainty in flood forecasting using a coupled meteorological and hydrological model is arisen from various sources, especially the uncertainty comes from the inaccuracy of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs). In order to improve the capability of flood forecast, the uncertainty estimation and mitigation are required to perform. This study is conducted to investigate and reduce such uncertainty. First, ensemble QPFs are generated by using Monte - Carlo simulation, then each ensemble member is forced as input for a hydrological model to obtain ensemble streamflow prediction. Likelihood measures are evaluated to identify feasible member. These members are retained to define upper and lower limits of the uncertainty interval and assess the uncertainty. To mitigate the uncertainty for very short lead time, a blending method, which merges the ensemble QPFs with radar-based rainfall prediction considering both qualitative and quantitative skills, is proposed. Finally, blending bias ratios, which are estimated from previous time step, are used to update the members over total lead time. The proposed method is verified for the two flood events in 2013 and 2016 in the Yeonguol and Soyang watersheds that are located in the Han River basin, South Korea. The uncertainty in flood forecasting using a coupled Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) and Sejong University Rainfall - Runoff (SURR) model is investigated and then mitigated by blending the generated ensemble LDAPS members with radar-based rainfall prediction that uses McGill algorithm for precipitation nowcasting by Lagrangian extrapolation (MAPLE). The results show that the uncertainty of flood forecasting using the coupled model increases when the lead time is longer. The mitigation method indicates its effectiveness for mitigating the uncertainty with the increases of the percentage of feasible member (POFM) and the ratio of the number of observations that fall into the uncertainty interval (p-factor).

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2015년도 학술발표회
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• pp.225-225
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• 2015

Drought events usually evolve slowly in time and their impacts generally span a long period of time. This indicates that the sequence of drought is not completely random. The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is a probabilistic model used to represent dependences between invisible hidden states which finally result in observations. Drought characteristics are dependent on the underlying generating mechanism, which can be well modelled by the HMM. This study employed a HMM with Gaussian emissions to fit the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) series and make multi-step prediction to check the drought characteristics in the future. To estimate the parameters of the HMM, we employed a Bayesian model computed via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Since the true number of hidden states is unknown, we fit the model with varying number of hidden states and used reversible jump to allow for transdimensional moves between models with different numbers of states. We applied the HMM to several stations SPI data in South Korea. The monthly SPI data from January 1973 to December 2012 was divided into two parts, the first 30-year SPI data (January 1973 to December 2002) was used for model calibration and the last 10-year SPI data (January 2003 to December 2012) for model validation. All the SPI data was preprocessed through the wavelet denoising and applied as the visible output in the HMM. Different lead time (T= 1, 3, 6, 12 months) forecasting performances were compared with conventional forecasting techniques (e.g., ANN and ARMA). Based on statistical evaluation performance, the HMM exhibited significant preferable results compared to conventional models with much larger forecasting skill score (about 0.3-0.6) and lower Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values (about 0.5-0.9).

• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.73-86
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• 2017

환경 자료는 M&S(Modeling and Simulation)에서 실험 결과의 신뢰도를 높이는데 중요한 역할을 한다. 특히 국방 M&S에서는 극한 기상 현상들이 가상훈련 및 실험에서 중요하게 활용될 수 있다. 그러나 환경 자료는 여러 기관에 분산되어 있고, 방대하다. 이 때문에 M&S 운영자들이 실제 환경 자료에서 극한 기상 현상이 발생한 일자와 지역을 선정하여 획득하는 것은 어려운 일이다. 퍼지논리 기반의 환경 자료 검색 기술은 환경 시나리오 발생기 개발의 핵심 기술 중 하나이다. 연구결과 4개의 주요 매개변수(RV, MF, FRA, MRV)로 구성된 퍼지 검색 알고리즘을 제시하였다. 이 연구는 강풍을 동반한 호우 발생 일자를 검색하기 위해 RV는 풍속과 강수량을 위해 각각 14 m/s와 80 mm/d, FRA는 0.2, MRV는 1, 그리고 MF는 시그모이드를 활용할 것을 제안한다. 이 연구에서 제안하는 알고리즘은 국방 M&S에서 필요로 하는 극한 기상 현상들이 발생한 일자를 검색하는데 매우 유용할 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제63권5호
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• pp.95-105
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• 2021

Drought is a disaster that causes prolonged and wide scale damage. Recently, the severity and frequency of drought occurrences, and drought damage have been increased significantly due to climate change. As a result, a quantitative study of drought factors is needed to better understand and prevent future droughts. In the case of agricultural drought, several existing studies examine the economic damage caused by droughts and their causes, but these studies are not well suited to estimating crop-oriented agricultural drought damage and the factors that absolutely affect agricultural drought. This study determines which factors most affect agricultural drought. It examines meteorological factors and those related to agricultural water supplied by irrigation facilities. Rice paddy production per unit area is lower than the average from the last two years where agricultural drought occurred. We compare the relative frequency of agricultural drought impacts with irrigation facilities, effective reservoir storage, the number of water supply facilities, and the meteorological drought index such as Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). To identify factors that affect agricultural drought, we correlate rice paddy production anomalies with irrigation water supply for the past two years. There was a high positive correlation between rice paddy production and irrigation water usage, and there was a low or moderate negative correlation between rice paddy production anomalies compared to the average of the past two years and SPI. As a result, agricultural water supply by irrigation facilities was judged to be more influential than meteorological factors in rice paddy production. This study is expected to help local governments establish policies related to agricultural drought response.

• 한국환경과학회지
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• 제28권2호
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• pp.169-182
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• 2019

Temporal and spatial variations in surface ozone concentrations in Busan were investigated by using observation data from urban air quality sites during 2001-2016. The annual ozone concentrations showed a significant increasing trend of $+0.40ppb\;yr^{-1}$ in this period, with a more rapid increase of $+0.81ppb\;yr-1$ since 2010. For the monthly analysis, the increase in ozone concentration was the greatest in August ($+0.68ppb\;yr-1$). These ozone trends were due mainly to rising temperature ($+0.05^{\circ}C\;yr^{-1}$) and weak decreasing precipitation ($-6.42mm\;yr^{-1}$). However, the extreme weather events (heat wave, localized heavy rain, etc.) lead to an increase in short-term variability of ozone since 2010. The relatively low ozone concentrations in the downtown area were caused by high NOx emissions from mobile sources. The increases in ozone concentrations were observed at most of the air quality monitoring sites due to the reductions in anthropogenic emissions of NOx during 2001-2015. However, in the southern coastal area, lower rates of increase in ozone concentrations were observed by $-0.10{\sim}0.25ppb\;yr^{-1}$ due to the significant NOx emitted by ships in the Busan port and Busan new port.

• 한국전자통신학회논문지
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.743-754
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• 2019

지표면 침식 잠재력은 비가 내린 영향으로 토양에 전달 된 운동 에너지로 평가할 수 있다. 충격 신호를 분석할 수 있는 디즈드로미터로 우적 에너지율 관계식을 산출하였다. 대륙 강수의 97%와 해양 강수의 95%가 강우량과 강우율의 관계로 이루어진 이 지수 방정식으로 설명되었다. 이 관계식의 지수는 강우 유형에 의존하지 않지만 계수는 강우 사건에 따라 조정될 수 있는 변동을 나타냈다. 이 관계식은 결정 계수, 평균 절대 오차 및 신뢰 오차에 의해 검증되었다. 특정 유형의 토양과 관련된 강수의 운동 에너지는 강우로 인한 침식의 가능성을 결정할 수 있다.