• Title/Summary/Keyword: potential predictability

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On the Predictability of Heavy Snowfall Event in Seoul, Korea at Mar. 04, 2008 (폭설에 대한 예측가능성 연구 - 2008년 3월 4일 서울지역 폭설사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Ryu, Chan-Su;Suh, Ae-Sook;Park, Jong-Seo;Chung, Hyo-Sang
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.18 no.11
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    • pp.1271-1281
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    • 2009
  • The heavy snowfall event over the eastern part of Seoul, Korea on Mar. 04, 2008 has been abruptly occurred after the frontal system with the heavy snowfall event had been past over the Korean peninsula on Mar. 03, 2008. Therefore, this heavy snowfall event couldn't be predicted well by any means of theoretical knowledges and models. After the cold front passed by, the cold air mass was flown over the peninsula immediately and became clear expectedly except the eastern part and southwestern part of peninsula with some large amount of snowfall. Even though the wide and intense massive cold anticyclone was expanded and enhanced by the lowest tropospheric baroclinicity over the Yellow Sea, but the intrusion and eastward movement of cold air to Seoul was too slow than normally predicted. Using the data of numerical model, satellite and radar images, three dimensional analysis Products(KLAPS : Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) of the environmental conditions of this event such as temperature, equivalent potential temperature, wind, vertical circulation, divergence, moisture flux divergence and relative vorticity could be analyzed precisely. Through the analysis of this event, the formation and westward advection of lower cyclonic circulation with continuously horizontal movement of air into the eastern part of Seoul by the analyses of KLAPS fields have been affected by occurring the heavy snowfall event. As the predictability of abrupt snowfall event was very hard and dependent on not only the synoptic atmospheric circulation but also for mesoscale atmospheric circulation, the forecaster can be predicted well this event which may be occurred and developed within the very short time period using sequential satellite images and KLAPS products.

HESnW: History Encounters-Based Spray-and-Wait Routing Protocol for Delay Tolerant Networks

  • Gan, Shunyi;Zhou, Jipeng;Wei, Kaimin
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.618-629
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    • 2017
  • Mobile nodes can't always connect each other in DTNs (delay tolerant networks). Many DTN routing protocols that favor the "multi-hop forwarding" are proposed to solve these network problems. But they also lead to intolerant delivery cost so that designing a overhead-efficient routing protocol which is able to perform well in delivery ratio with lower delivery cost at the same time is valuable. Therefore, we utilize the small-world property and propose a new delivery metric called multi-probability to design our relay node selection principles that nodes with lower delivery predictability can also be selected to be the relay nodes if one of their history nodes has higher delivery predictability. So, we can find more potential relay nodes to reduce the forwarding overhead of successfully delivered messages through our proposed algorithm called HESnW. We also apply our new messages copies allocation scheme to optimize the routing performance. Comparing to existing routing algorithms, simulation results show that HESnW can reduce the delivery cost while it can also obtain a rather high delivery ratio.

METHODOLOGY TO ENHANCE THE PREDICTABILITY OF I/O DATA EXCHANGE BETWEEN DEVICE AND TASKS (장치와 태스크 간 입출력 데이터 교환의 예측성 향상 방안)

  • Koo, Cheol-Hea;Yang, Koon-Ho;Choi, Seong-Bong
    • Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.451-456
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    • 2007
  • Data coming from devices shall be transported to a specific task to be used in a software with the most accurate time and data integrity. During this process, a potential cause for invoking structured hazard and performance degradation is dormant. In this paper, a method which can protect the data integrity from the possible data corruption when collision has happened during I/O data exchange between device and tasks is presented. Also, an example diagram of mechanism according to the method is shown and the effect, merits and demerits of the method is evaluated.

Development of a test of Korean Speech Intelligibility in Noise(KSPIN) using sentence materials with controlled word predictability (소음환경에서 표적단어의 예상도가 조절된 한국어의 문장검사목록개발 시안)

  • Kim, Jin-Sook;Pae, So-Yeong;Lee, Jung-Hak
    • Speech Sciences
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    • v.7 no.2
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    • pp.37-50
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    • 2000
  • This paper describes a test of everyday speech understanding ability, in which a listener's utilization of the context-situational information of speech is assessed, and is compared with the utilization of acoustic-phonetic information. The test items are sentences which are presented in a babble type of noise, and the listener response is the key word in the sentence. The key words are always two-syllabic nouns and the questioning sentences are added to obtain the responding key words. Two types of sentences are used. One is the high-predictable sentences for which the key word is somewhat predictable from the context. The other is the low-predictable sentences for which the key-word cannot be predicted from the context. Both types are included in six 40-item forms of the test, which are balanced for intelligibility, key-word familiarity and predictability, phonetic content, and length. Performance of normally hearing listeners shows significantly different functions for various signal-to-noise ratios. The potential applications of this test, particularly in the assessment of speech understanding ability in the hearing impaired, are discussed.

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A Study on the Prediction of Groundwater Contamination using GIS (GIS를 이용한 지하수오염 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Jo, Si-Beom;Shon, Ho-Woong;Lee, Kang-Won
    • Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information Science
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    • v.12 no.2 s.29
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    • pp.17-28
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    • 2004
  • This study has tried to develop the modified DRASTIC Model by supplying the parameters, such as structural lineament density and land-use, into conventional DRASTIC model, and to predict the potential of groundwater contamination using GIS in Hwanam 2 District, Gyeonggi Province, Korea. Since the aquifers in Korea is generally through the joints of rock-mass in hydrogeological environment, lineament density affects to the behavior of groundwater and contaminated plumes directly, and land-use reflect the effect of point or non-point source of contamination indirectly. For the statistical analysis, lattice-layers of each parameter were generated, and then level of confidence was assessed by analyzing each correlation coefficient. Groundwater contamination potential map was achieved as a final result by comparing modified DRASTIC potential and the amount of pollutant load logically. The result suggest the predictability of contamination potential in a specified area in the respects of hydrogeological aspect and water quality.

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Studies on the Predictability of Heavy Rainfall Using Prognostic Variables in Numerical Model (모델 예측변수들을 이용한 집중호우 예측 가능성에 관한 연구)

  • Jang, Min;Jee, Joon-Beom;Min, Jae-sik;Lee, Yong-Hee;Chung, Jun-Seok;You, Cheol-Hwan
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.495-508
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    • 2016
  • In order to determine the prediction possibility of heavy rainfall, a variety of analyses was conducted by using three-dimensional data obtained from Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System (KLAPS) re-analysis data. Strong moisture convergence occurring around the time of the heavy rainfall is consistent with the results of previous studies on such continuous production. Heavy rainfall occurred in the cloud system with a thick convective clouds. The moisture convergence, temperature and potential temperature advection showed increase into the heavy rainfall occurrence area. The distribution of integrated liquid water content tended to decrease as rainfall increased and was characterized by accelerated convective instability along with increased buoyant energy. In addition, changes were noted in the various characteristics of instability indices such as K-index (KI), Showalter Stability Index (SSI), and lifted index (LI). The meteorological variables used in the analysis showed clear increases or decreases according to the changes in rainfall amount. These rapid changes as well as the meteorological variables changes are attributed to the surrounding and meteorological conditions. Thus, we verified that heavy rainfall can be predicted according to such increase, decrease, or changes. This study focused on quantitative values and change characteristics of diagnostic variables calculated by using numerical models rather than by focusing on synoptic analysis at the time of the heavy rainfall occurrence, thereby utilizing them as prognostic variables in the study of the predictability of heavy rainfall. These results can contribute to the identification of production and development mechanisms of heavy rainfall and can be used in applied research for prediction of such precipitation. In the analysis of various case studies of heavy rainfall in the future, our study result can be utilized to show the development of the prediction of severe weather.

Microalbuminuria in children with urinary tract infection

  • Kwak, Byung-Ok;Chung, So-Chung;Kim, Kyo-Sun
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.53 no.9
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    • pp.840-844
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: Microalbuminuria is defined as increased urinary albumin excretion (30-300 mg/day) or microalbumin/creatinine ratio (30-300 mg/g) in a spot urine sample. Although microalbuminuria is a predictor of clinical nephropathy and cardiomyopathy, few studies have investigated microalbuminuria in children with urinary tract infection (UTI). Therefore, we compared the spot urine microalbumin/creatinine ratio in pediatric UTI patients with that of control subjects. Methods: We investigated the correlation between the ratio in children with UTI and age, height, weight, blood pressure, glomerular filtration rate (GFR), hematuria, vesicoureteral reflux, renal parenchymal defect, and renal scar, and its predictability for UTI complications. Results: We studied 66 patients (42 boys, 24 girls) and 52 healthy children (24 boys, 28 girls). The mean microalbumin/creatinine ratio in UTI patients was statistically significantly increased compared to the control group ($340.04{\pm}321.36mg/g$ vs. $225.68{\pm}154.61mg/g$, $P$=0.0141). The mean value of spot urine microalbumin/creatinine ratio ($384.70{\pm}342.22mg/g$ vs. $264.92{\pm}158.13mg/g$, $P$=0.0341) in 1-23 months age patient group showed statistically significant increase compared to control group. Microalbumin/creatinine ratio showed negative correlation to age (r=-0.29, $P$=0.0167), body surface area (BSA) (r=-0.29, $P$=0.0173) and GFR (r=-0.26, $P$=0.0343). The presence of hematuria ($P$=0.0169) was found to be correlated. Conclusion: The spot urine microalbumin/creatinine ratio in children with UTI was significantly greater than that in normal children, and it was positively correlated with GFR. This ratio is a potential prescreening and prognostic marker in UTI patients. Further studies are required to validate the predictability of microalbuminuria in pediatric UTI patients.

Valuation of Pure Internet Business : An Exploratory Study (국내 순수 인터넷 기업평가에 관한 탐색적 연구)

  • 김정욱;정승렬;이재정
    • Korean Management Science Review
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.61-71
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    • 2000
  • Due to the potential growing capability that reflects future value, the market value of internet business companies (IB) are still evaluated high although major players like Amazon continuously suffer losses. Then, how do investors valuate the potential growing capabilities given that traditional financial/accounting based valuation approaches seem to be inappropriate for IB. This study attempts to provide an answer to this issue. We, therefore, analyzed the predictability of various accounting and non-accounting variables for IB value. These include book value, net income, unique visitors, page view, reach rate, public float and institutional holdings. Because of being in infant stage and difficulties in obtaining necessary web traffic data, sample of 20 pure IB were selected from Korea Stock Exchange Market, KOSDAQ, and informal market. The results of this study showed that web traffic date had the strongest relationship with IB value. In particular, unique visitors and reach rate were found to be best predictors for IB value while page view was reasonable indicator. Interestingly, net income was not found to related to IB value. This calls for an attention to the typical characteristics of IB that my hinder the usage of traditional valuation approaches for IB. Another results revealed that none of both public float and institutional holdings was significantly associated with IB value, indicating market’s supply-demand factors were less important than traffic information.

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Earnings Attributes that Contribute to Analyst Forecasting Errors: Empirical Evidence from Korea

  • KIM, Joonhyun
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.8
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    • pp.647-658
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    • 2021
  • Analysts' forecasts are important for providing useful guidance to investors, especially individual or small investors, and therefore it becomes critical to identify the elements which can potentially increase errors in analysts' forecasts. This study investigates potential factors which can lead to errors in forecasting by analysts, specifically in terms of the level and attributes of corporate earnings. Utilizing a sample of firms listed on the Korean stock markets, this study provides evidence that firms with more volatile and unpredictable earnings feature less accurate analyst forecasts. This study fills a void in the literature by conducting empirical tests for earnings attributes in terms of volatility and unpredictability that could potentially undermine the forecast accuracy. The negative association between the quality of earnings and forecast accuracy is more pronounced for firms with negative net income values. Additional analysis demonstrates that forecast accuracy is significantly lower for the fourth quarter than for other fiscal quarters and that fourth quarter earnings tend to be more volatile and unpredictable. This study contributes to the literature by providing new empirical evidence regarding the comprehensive effects of earnings quality and level on analysts' forecasting accuracy and further suggests potential factors contributing to the fourth quarter anomaly in analyst forecasts in terms of earnings attributes.

A Comparison of the Cognitive Effect of Three-dimensional Images on a Computer Monitor and a Mixed Reality Device (컴퓨터 모니터와 혼합현실기기의 3차원 이미지 인지 효과 비교 연구)

  • Choi, Sung-Jin;Liu, Shu-Jun
    • Journal of KIBIM
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2023
  • The educational benefits and potential of XR as a new medium are well recognized. However, there are still limitations in understanding the specific effects of XR compared to the more widely utilized representation of images on computer monitors. This study therefore aims to demonstrate the differences in effectiveness between the two technologies and to draw implications from a cognitive comparison of three-dimensional objects represented on a flat surface and virtually. The study was conducted a quantitative research method with an experiment involving two independent groups, and the results were tested using regression analysis. The results showed that for low-level, two-dimensional objects, the computer monitor method may be more effective, but above a certain level of complexity, the effectiveness of learning through the monitor tends to decrease rapidly. On the other hand, the group that used extended reality technology showed relatively high comprehension compared to the monitor group even as the complexity increased, and in particular, unlike the monitor group's rapidly decreasing comprehension level, the extended reality technology group showed a trend of decreasing comprehension with the level of complexity, suggesting the potential for compatibility and predictability in the use of technology.