• Title/Summary/Keyword: possibility assessment

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Development of a Recommendation Model for Development Area using Land Suitability Assessment (토지적성평가 결과를 활용한 개발지역추천모델 개발)

  • Kim, Hong Yeon;Chang, Woo Seok;Jung, Nam Su;Kim, Han Joong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.129-140
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    • 2012
  • Land suitability assessment assesses development, farming, and conservation suitability, considering land's soil, location, and possibility for use. It also implement segmentation of management regions into production, conservation, and plan management area. It is evaluated as a very significant system in establishing a land use system of sustainable development and development after planning in the aspect that it can establish proper land use plan. This study developed a recommendation model for development in agent-based model that interacts with surrounding lands. It also tried to summarize the area characteristic analysis and the results of land suitability evaluation, targeting three ri's in Yesan-Gun, and analyze the model's applicability by selection results. In order to recommend area for development that considers the use of the surrounding lands, it calculated development possibility indices that considered the ratings of all the lands in the target areas for each parcel and simulated the model. As a result, selected three areas in target region were suitable areas for development in land suitability assessment. In detail, ratings of the recommended parcels were 3, 4, and 5 ratings. As a result of examining the land status, it showed that all the three areas were plan management areas, thus easy for development. It is judged that the model for recommending area for development suggested in this study can be used as important basic data for setting the direction for development when establishing a regional planning.

Risk Assessment of Aldehydes and Volatile Organic Compounds in the National Library of Korea Archive (국립중앙도서관 귀중서고 내 알데히드류 및 휘발성유기화합물(VOCs)에 대한 건강위해성평가)

  • Lee, Hye-Won;Lim, Hui Been;Lee, Kwi-Bok;Park, So Yeon;Jeon, Jeong In;Lee, Cheol Min
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.29 no.6
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    • pp.673-682
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    • 2020
  • This study investigates the concentration distribution of aldehydes and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the archive of the National Library in Korea and evaluates the health risks to workers from hazardous chemicals. Acetaldehyde had the highest concentration among the nine species of aldehydes present in the archive and the concentration of toluene was the highest among the six species of VOCs. Most of the detected substances showed that their indoor concentrations were higher than the outdoor ones, suggesting the possibility of indoor sources of aldehydes and VOCs. The evaluation of health risks for workers based on these measurement results showed that not all substances were hazardous to the human body. However, considering the possibility of the presence of indoor sources and the potential limits of our study owing its short period, it is necessary to conduct long-term studies on the concentration distribution of indoor pollutants in the archive environment.

An Evaluation of Priority for the Green Energy Technologies Business (그린에너지기술 사업화를 위한 우선순위 평가)

  • Lee, Deokki;Hong, Jong-Chul;Park, Soo-Uk;Baik, Keum Hee
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.135.2-135.2
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    • 2011
  • The goal of this study is the derivation of priority for business in the areas of green energy technologies. In this paper, we calculated the importance weights of impact factors using the AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) method in order to derivation of priority to the green energy technologies business. AHP is a useful method for evaluating multi-criteria decision making problems. To apply the AHP method, specialists for the assessment have been identified by using the concept of 'plan, do, see' and the decision-making hierarchy was established. We selected 5 criteria and 16 sub-criteria for impact factors by brainstorming. According to the result in this study, the most important impact factor is the possibility of commercialization, the second is the possibility of developing the fundamental technology, and the third is the possibility of convergence technology.

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The application of simplified risk assessment for tunnel (터널 리스크 평가 기법의 적용성에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Sang-Hwan;Lee, Chung-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.63-74
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    • 2007
  • Unexpected ground conditions have always been a major problem for the construction of tunnel. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the risk capacity before and/or during construction of new tunnel. This paper presents the simplified risk assessment system using modified stability number (N), namely Underground Risk Index (URI) system, to evaluate the tunnel risk possibility in the design stage. URI is a scoring system for risk possibility by rating the each appraisal elements. The modified stability number (N) which is one of risk factor in the Interaction Matrix parameters such as RQD, UCS, weathering, overburden, stability number, ground water-table, RMR, permeability and so on, is used in the system. In addition, the case study is performed in order to verify the applicability of URI-system in practice.

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Application of Regional Landslide Susceptibility, Possibility, and Risk Assessment Techniques Using GIS (GIS를 이용한 광역적 산사태 취약성, 가능성, 위험성 평가 기법 적용)

  • 이사로
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.34 no.4
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    • pp.385-394
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    • 2001
  • There are serious damage of people and properties every year due to landslides that are occurred by heavy rain. Because these phenomena repeat and the heavy rain is not an atmospheric anomaly, the counter plan becomes necessary. The study area, Ulsan, is one of the seven metropolitan, and largest cities of Korea and has many large facilities such as petrochemical complex and factories of automobile and shipbuilding. So it is necessary assess the landslide hazard potential. In the study. the three steps of landslide hazard assessment techniques such as susceptibility, possibility, and risk were performed to the study area using GIS. For the analyses, the topographic, geologic, soil, forest, meteorological, and population and facility spatial database were constructed. Landslide susceptibility representing how susceptible to a given area was assessed by overlay of the slope, aspect, curvature of topography from the topographic DB, type, material, drainage and effective thickness of soil from the soil DB, lype age, diameter and density from forest DB and land use. Then landslide possibility representing how possible to landslide was assessed by overlay of the susceptibility and rainfall frequency map, Finally, landslide risk representing how dangerous to people and facility was assessed by overlay of the possibil. ity and the population and facility density maps The assessment results can be used to urban and land use plan for landslide hazard prevention.

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Assessing the Influence of Topographic Factors on the Distribution of Aporia crataegi (Lepidoptera: Pieridae) in Northeast Asia Using a MaxEnt Modeling Approach (기후변화에 따른 상제나비의 잠재적 분포에 대한 지형요소의 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Geun;Cho, YoungHo;Song, Kyo-Hong;Park, YoungJun;Oh, Jang-Geun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.142-146
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate topographic characteristics revealed in the predicted distribution areas of Aporia crataegi, according to climate change. Towards this end, this study compared the differences of topographic factors, such as altitude, mountain slope and the aspect of slope, in the distribution areas with different potential inhabitation possibilities of the Aporia crataegi. The inhabitation possibilities of the Aporia crataegi were different, according to altitude and topographic slope, and the inhabitation possibility is judged to be affected more by the topographic conditions including altitude and mountain slope than by the aspect of slope. Especially, the inhabitation possibility of the Aporia crataegi was higher in the higher altitude area, as time goes on furthermore. The reason is that the current climate environment, which is suitable for the potential inhabitation of the Aporia crataegi, is forecast to be formed with an area with high altitude. Although the difference in the aspect of slope was not statistically significant according to inhabitation possibility, the reason why the inhabitation possibility of the Aporia crataegi varies in the mainly southeast slope is conjectured to be derived from the warmer heat environmental condition to grow from a larva into an imago. The result drawn in this study is expected to be utilized as basic data to establish a policy soundly preserving and managing the habitat of biospecies in consideration of climate change and topographic conditions in the natural ecosystem field by using the already built up various biological resources information.

RISK-INFORMED REGULATION: HANDLING UNCERTAINTY FOR A RATIONAL MANAGEMENT OF SAFETY

  • Zio, Enrico
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.327-348
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    • 2008
  • A risk-informed regulatory approach implies that risk insights be used as supplement of deterministic information for safety decision-making purposes. In this view, the use of risk assessment techniques is expected to lead to improved safety and a more rational allocation of the limited resources available. On the other hand, it is recognized that uncertainties affect both the deterministic safety analyses and the risk assessments. In order for the risk-informed decision making process to be effective, the adequate representation and treatment of such uncertainties is mandatory. In this paper, the risk-informed regulatory framework is considered under the focus of the uncertainty issue. Traditionally, probability theory has provided the language and mathematics for the representation and treatment of uncertainty. More recently, other mathematical structures have been introduced. In particular, the Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is here illustrated as a generalized framework encompassing probability theory and possibility theory. The special case of probability theory is only addressed as term of comparison, given that it is a well known subject. On the other hand, the special case of possibility theory is amply illustrated. An example of the combination of probability and possibility for treating the uncertainty in the parameters of an event tree is illustrated.

Environmental Impact Assessment and Mediation (독일에서의 환경영향평가와 분쟁조정)

  • Schafer, Bettina
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.2 no.2
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    • pp.41-47
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    • 1993
  • During the last years it became more and more difficult to deal with environmental conflicts using traditional political instruments in industrialized countries. One reason for the occurring problems might be the citizens' awareness of scarceness of nature. Another reason might be the changing legislation with the introduction of the environmental impact assessment (EIA) as an integral part of a project's licensing procedure. The EIA offers new possibilities for citizens to interfere in decision processes and to obstruct projects. The changing situation requires new instruments for conflict solving. Mediation may be considered an alternative or completion to the traditional political instruments. It is a systematic strategy for conflict treatment and. with the support of an independent mediator, allows to reach an agreement among all parties involved. Mediation may be introduced in the EIA One possibility offers the scoping date, which, if the participation of the public is assured, might avoid heavy disputes in the further process. Another connection between the instrument of mediation and the EIA could be the use of the environmental impact study (EIS) as information background for a mediation process. EIA would then be source of information about all environmental aspects. Thus the role of EIA would be extended to being a part of conflict analysis in the alternative dispute resolution process.

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Reliability-based Failure Cause Assessment of Collapsed Bridge during Construction

  • Cho, Hyo-Nam;Choi, Hyun-Ho;Lee, Sang-Yoon;Sun, Jong-Wan
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
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    • 2003.05a
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    • pp.181-186
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    • 2003
  • There are many uncertainties in structural failures or structures, so probabilistic failure cause assessment should be performed in order to consider the uncertainties. However, in many cases of forensic engineering, the failure cause assessments are performed by deterministic approach though number of uncertainties are existed in the failures or structures. Thus, deterministic approach may have possibility for leading to unreasonable and unrealistic failure cause assessment due to ignorance of the uncertainties. Therefore, probabilistic approach is needed to complement the shortcoming of deterministic approach and to perform the more reasonable and realistic failure cause assessment. In this study, reliability-based failure cause assessment (reliability based forensic engineering) is performed, which can incorporate uncertainties in failures and structures. For more practical application, the modified ETA technique is proposed, which automatically generates the defected structural model, performs structural analysis and reliability analysis, and calculates the failure probabilities of the failure events and the occurrence probabilities of the failure scenarios. Also, for more precise reliability analysis, uncertainties are estimated more reasonably by using bayesian approach based on the experimental laboratory testing data in forensic report.

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Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change of the Physical Infrastructure in Korea Through a Survey of Professionals (우리나라 사회기반시설의 기후변화 취약성 평가 - 전문가 설문조사를 바탕으로 -)

  • Myeong, Soojeong;Yi, Donggyu
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.347-357
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    • 2009
  • This study conducted a vulnerability assessment on Korea's physical infrastructure to provide base data for developing strategies to strengthen Korea's ability to adapt to climate change. The assessment was conducted by surveying professionals in the field of infrastructure and climate change science. A vulnerability assessment was carried out for seven climate change events: average temperature increases, sea level rise, typhoons and storm surges, floods and heavy rain, drought, severe cold, and heat waves. The survey asked respondents questions with respect to the consequences of each climate change event, the urgency of adaptation to climate change, and the scale of investment for adaptation to each climate change event. Thereafter, management priorities for infrastructure were devised and implications for policy development were suggested. The results showed that respondents expected the possibility of "typhoons and storm surges" and "floods and heavy rain" to be the most high. Respondents indicated that infrastructure related to water, transportation, and the built environment were more vulnerable to climate change. The most vulnerable facilities included river related facilities such as dams and riverbanks in the "water" category and seaports and roads in the "transport and communication" category. The results found were consistent with the history of natural disasters in Korea.