• Title/Summary/Keyword: positive society

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Effectiveness of Smoking Prevention Program based on Social Influence Model in the Middle School Students (흡연예방교육에 의한 청소년들의 흡연에 대한 지식 및 태도변화와 흡연량의 감소 효과)

  • Roh, Won-Hwan;Kang, Pock-Soo;Kim, Sok-Beom;Lee, Kyeong-Soo
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.37-56
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    • 2001
  • This study was conducted to analyze the degree of changes in knowledge and attitude toward smoking and to examine the factors affecting knowledge and attitude for smoking after providing a smoking prevention program based on social influence model for a year to middle school students. Study population consists of 665 subjects of middle school students(aged 14 years) in Gumi city in Kyeongsangbukdo Province. Among them three-hundred sixty-seven students(intervention group) were educated to a smoking prevention program for 1 year from April 1999 to April 2000. School-based four-class program to prevent smoking was developed. The program provides instruction about short and long-term negative physiologic and social consequences of smoking and also discussed the health hazards of smoking, social pressure to smoke, peer norms regarding tobacco use, and refusal skill. A 45-item self-administered structured questionnaire was designed to evaluate the change of knowledge, attitude, smoking rate and the amount of smoking. The instrument was comprised of 11 knowledge items, thirteen attitude item and demographic items. Each scales were created by summing responses to each items within each scales and high scores on the knowledge, attitude, and smoking behavioral intention scales indicated positive responses. Based on the changes before and after the implementation of smoking prevention program between intervention and control group, the change of scores on knowledge were significantly different between the control group and the intervention group(p<0.05) and the change of scores on the attitude toward smoking was significantly different between intervention and control group. The change of smoking rate were not showing a significant difference between two groups but the amount of smoking were significantly reduced in intervention group than control group. In multiple regression analysis on changes of knowledge about smoking, the variables of smoking prevention program education, previous knowledge on smoking and students' school performance were selected the significant variables. In multiple regression to analysis of the factors influencing changes in attitude toward smoking, the variables of smoking prevention program education, previous knowledge on smoking were shown to be significant. The smoking prevention program was effective on change of knowledge and attitude of middle school students. In considering that the policy should be needed to extent of implementation of school-based health education curricula based on social influence model and it would contribute to reduce smoking of students.

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A Study on Relationship between Degree of Stress and Dyspepsia, Sleeping, Satisfaction of Adult Women in Rural Area (성인 여성들의 스트레스와 소화불량 및 수면장애와의 관련성)

  • Kim, Yeong-Hee;Cho, Soo-Yeul;Kang, Pock-Soo;Lee, Kyeong-Soo;Kim, Seok-Beom;Kim, Sang-Kyu;Kang, Young-Ah;Hwang, Young-Lork
    • Journal of agricultural medicine and community health
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.51-63
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    • 2000
  • Ten Dongs were selected according to the systematic cluster sampling in Koryong Gun, and the survey was conducted on 571 women in the age between 30-69 years. The first survey was performed for 6 days between August 27 to September 1, 1999 with the investigation rate of 60.3%, and the second survey was performed in November with the investigation rate of 91.8%. The contents of survey included demographic characteristics, health behaviors, dyspepsia symptom score, sleeping induction time and the degree of sleep satisfaction, and degree of stress in the subjects. The dyspepsia symptom score was in the average 13.4 points out of a total 44 points and was the highest in the 50-59 year-old age group with 13.9 points. The sleep induction time was in the average of 35 minutes and was the highest in the 50-59 year-old age group with 40.9 minutes; the degree of sleep satisfaction was in the average of 7.9 points and was the lowest in the 50-59 year-old age group with 7.5 points. The stress score was in the average of 18.3 points and was highest in those subjects in their 40's and 50's with 18.7 points. When the correlation among the stress score, the degree of sleep satisfaction and dyspepsia symptom score was analyzed, the results showed that he stress score and the degree of sleep satisfaction showed a significant negative correlation and that the stress score and dyspepsia symptom score showed a significant positive correlation. Also, a significant negative correlation was found between the degree of sleep satisfaction and dyspepsia symptom score. According to each age group, a significant correlation was revealed among the stress score, dyspepsia symptom score and the degree of sleep satisfaction in those subjects over 40 years of age compared to those subjects who were younger than 40 years of age. As for educational level, the correlation among the stress score, the degree of sleep satisfaction and dyspepsia symptom score was higher in those subjects with less than middle school education compared to those subjects with more than high school education. When those factors that effects on the dyspepsia symptom score were analyzed with multiple regression, the results showed that the level of stress and chronic diseases were selected as significant variables. When those factors that affected on the degree of sleep satisfaction were analyzed, the sleep induction time and presence of chronic diseases and stress were selected as significant variables. Those women in their 50's who live in rural areas showed the highest level of stress, lowest the degree of sleep satisfaction, and highest level of dyspepsia, indicating that they need stress management. Also, since stress was showed to be a significant variable effecting on dyspepsia or the degree of sleep satisfaction, it is concluded that health promotion is possible through stress management. More studies are needed in the future on coping resources that would strengthen coping against stress, and by conducting studies on stress and related factors on community people, the measures of mental health promotion need to be developed.

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A Study on Food Habits and Nutrient Intakes according to BMI in Food and Nutrition Major and Non-major Female Students in Kyungnam University (식품영양전공과 비전공 여대생의 BMI에 따른 식습관 및 영양소 섭취 상태에 관한 연구 -경남대학교를 중심으로-)

  • Seo, Eun-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Community Nutrition
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.297-316
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    • 2014
  • Objectives: This study was performed to investigate the body image, food habits, nutrition knowledge, food intake frequency, nutrient intakes of female university students in Masan. Methods: Two groups (n = 302, nutrition major: 147, non-major: 155) were classified into underweight, normal weight and overweight/obesity groups according to BMI respectively. Results: Height and weight of all subjects were 161.5 cm, 53.2 kg and were 161.5 cm, 55.1 kg, 161.5 cm, 51.3 kg in major and non-major female students, respectively. The BMI and body weight were significantly different (p < 0.001). Significantly higher proportions of underweight students in both study groups had perceived as 'normal' or 'fat' (p < 0.001). Higher proportion of the subjects skipped breakfast and main reason was no time to eat. Nutrition knowledge score was significantly higher in major than in non-major subjects (p < 0.001). Fish intake frequency score was significantly higher in non-majors, while the vegetable intake frequency score was significantly higher in majors. Nutrient intakes were significantly higher the majors compared to non-majors, particularly the intake of calcium (p < 0.05), zinc (p < 0.001), vitamin C (p < 0.001) and vitamin E (p < 0.01). Subjects in both groups did not have adequate nutrient intakes compared to KDRIs. BMI showed a positive correlation with body image, body weight and nutrition knowledge score (p < 0.01). Conclusions: These results suggest that systematic nutrition education program which can be applied in real life is important for the formation of correct choices of food and good eating habits.

Changes in Biochemical Components of Several Tissues of the Hard Clam, Meretrix petechialis, in Relation to Gonad Developmental Phases (말백합, Meretrix petechialis의 생식소 발달단계에 따른 일부 조직의 생화학적 성분 변화)

  • Kim, Yong-Min;Park, Kwan-Ha;Chung, Ee-Yung;Kim, Jong-Bae;Lee, Chang-Hoon
    • The Korean Journal of Malacology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.125-134
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    • 2006
  • We investigated the reproductive cycle of the hard clam, Meretrix petechialis with its gonadal development by histological observations. The seasonal changes in biochemical component of the adductor muscle, visceral mass, foot muscle and mantle of the clam were studied by biochemical analysis, from January to December, 2002. The reproductive cycle of this species can be divided into five successive stages: early stage (January to March), late active stage (February to May), ripe stage (April to August), partially spawned stage (July to August) and spent/inactive stage (September to January). Total protein content in the visceral mass was over two times higher than that in the adductor muscle. Monthly changes of total protein content in the adductor muscle were not statistically significant (ANOVA, p = 0.071), while the changes in the visceral mass were significant (p < 0.001). Total protein content in visceral mass was higher during the early active, late active, and ripe stages (from January to May), while the lowest in July. Glycogen content in the adductor muscle was higher than that in the visceral mass. Monthly changes in glycogen contents were statistically significant in both adductor muscle (F = 237.2, p < 0.001) and the visceral mass (F = 64.04, p < 0.001). Glycogen content in the adductor muscle was the highest in the ripe stage (April). Its content was lower in the partially spawned and the spent/inactive stages (June-September). Glycogen contents in the visceral mass were relatively lower until the early active stage, while the highest in the late active stage. RNA content was higher in visceral mass than that in the adductor muscle. Monthly changes in RNA contents were significant in both adductor muscle (F = 195.2, p < 0.001) and visceral mass (F = 78.85, p < 0.001). RNA content in the adductor muscle was high in the early active stage (January-February), and then it decreased rapidly in the late active stage (March-April), thereafter, slightly increased during the partially spawned stage (June-July). RNA content in the visceral mass reached a maximum during the ripe stage (May), and then it decreased rapidly during the partially-spawned stage (June-July). There was significant positive correlation in total protein contents between adductor muscle and visceral mass (r = 0.715, p = 0.020). However, there was no correlation between adductor muscle and visceral mass in glycogen (p = 0.550), while a negative correlation was found between the adductor muscle and visceral mass in RNA (p = 0.518) contents. Especially, changes in RNA content showed a negative correlation between the adductor muscle tissue and visceral mass. Therefore, these results suggest that the nutrient content of the adductor muscle, visceral muscle and foot muscle changed in response to gonadal energy needs.

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Sesquiterpenoids Bioconversion Analysis by Wood Rot Fungi

  • Lee, Su-Yeon;Ryu, Sun-Hwa;Choi, In-Gyu;Kim, Myungkil
    • 한국균학회소식:학술대회논문집
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.19-20
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    • 2016
  • Sesquiterpenoids are defined as $C_{15}$ compounds derived from farnesyl pyrophosphate (FPP), and their complex structures are found in the tissue of many diverse plants (Degenhardt et al. 2009). FPP's long chain length and additional double bond enables its conversion to a huge range of mono-, di-, and tri-cyclic structures. A number of cyclic sesquiterpenes with alcohol, aldehyde, and ketone derivatives have key biological and medicinal properties (Fraga 1999). Fungi, such as the wood-rotting Polyporus brumalis, are excellent sources of pharmaceutically interesting natural products such as sesquiterpenoids. In this study, we investigated the biosynthesis of P. brumalis sesquiterpenoids on modified medium. Fungal suspensions of 11 white rot species were inoculated in modified medium containing $C_6H_{12}O_6$, $C_4H_{12}N_2O_6$, $KH_2PO_4$, $MgSO_4$, and $CaCl_2$ for 20 days. Cultivation was stopped by solvent extraction via separation of the mycelium. The metabolites were identified as follows: propionic acid (1), mevalonic acid lactone (2), ${\beta}$-eudesmane (3), and ${\beta}$-eudesmol (4), respectively (Figure 1). The main peaks of ${\beta}$-eudesmane and ${\beta}$-eudesmol, which were indicative of sesquiterpene structures, were consistently detected for 5, 7, 12, and 15 days These results demonstrated the existence of terpene metabolism in the mycelium of P. brumalis. Polyporus spp. are known to generate flavor components such as methyl 2,4-dihydroxy-3,6-dimethyl benzoate; 2-hydroxy-4-methoxy-6-methyl benzoic acid; 3-hydroxy-5-methyl phenol; and 3-methoxy-2,5-dimethyl phenol in submerged cultures (Hoffmann and Esser 1978). Drimanes of sesquiterpenes were reported as metabolites from P. arcularius and shown to exhibit antimicrobial activity against Gram-positive bacteria such as Staphylococcus aureus (Fleck et al. 1996). The main metabolites of P. brumalis, ${\beta}$-Eudesmol and ${\beta}$-eudesmane, were categorized as eudesmane-type sesquiterpene structures. The eudesmane skeleton could be biosynthesized from FPP-derived IPP, and approximately 1,000 structures have been identified in plants as essential oils. The biosynthesis of eudesmol from P. brumalis may thus be an important tool for the production of useful natural compounds as presumed from its identified potent bioactivity in plants. Essential oils comprising eudesmane-type sesquiterpenoids have been previously and extensively researched (Wu et al. 2006). ${\beta}$-Eudesmol is a well-known and important eudesmane alcohol with an anticholinergic effect in the vascular endothelium (Tsuneki et al. 2005). Additionally, recent studies demonstrated that ${\beta}$-eudesmol acts as a channel blocker for nicotinic acetylcholine receptors at the neuromuscular junction, and it can inhibit angiogenesis in vitro and in vivo by blocking the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling pathway (Seo et al. 2011). Variation of nutrients was conducted to determine an optimum condition for the biosynthesis of sesquiterpenes by P. brumalis. Genes encoding terpene synthases, which are crucial to the terpene synthesis pathway, generally respond to environmental factors such as pH, temperature, and available nutrients (Hoffmeister and Keller 2007, Yu and Keller 2005). Calvo et al. described the effect of major nutrients, carbon and nitrogen, on the synthesis of secondary metabolites (Calvo et al. 2002). P. brumalis did not prefer to synthesize sesquiterpenes under all growth conditions. Results of differences in metabolites observed in P. brumalis grown in PDB and modified medium highlighted the potential effect inorganic sources such as $C_4H_{12}N_2O_6$, $KH_2PO_4$, $MgSO_4$, and $CaCl_2$ on sesquiterpene synthesis. ${\beta}$-eudesmol was apparent during cultivation except for when P. brumalis was grown on $MgSO_4$-free medium. These results demonstrated that $MgSO_4$ can specifically control the biosynthesis of ${\beta}$-eudesmol. Magnesium has been reported as a cofactor that binds to sesquiterpene synthase (Agger et al. 2008). Specifically, the $Mg^{2+}$ ions bind to two conserved metal-binding motifs. These metal ions complex to the substrate pyrophosphate, thereby promoting the ionization of the leaving groups of FPP and resulting in the generation of a highly reactive allylic cation. Effect of magnesium source on the sesquiterpene biosynthesis was also identified via analysis of the concentration of total carbohydrates. Our current study offered further insight that fungal sesquiterpene biosynthesis can be controlled by nutrients. To profile the metabolites of P. brumalis, the cultures were extracted based on the growth curve. Despite metabolites produced during mycelia growth, there was difficulty in detecting significant changes in metabolite production, especially those at low concentrations. These compounds may be of interest in understanding their synthetic mechanisms in P. brumalis. The synthesis of terpene compounds began during the growth phase at day 9. Sesquiterpene synthesis occurred after growth was complete. At day 9, drimenol, farnesol, and mevalonic lactone (or mevalonic acid lactone) were identified. Mevalonic acid lactone is the precursor of the mevalonic pathway, and particularly, it is a precursor for a number of biologically important lipids, including cholesterol hormones (Buckley et al. 2002). Farnesol is the precursor of sesquiterpenoids. Drimenol compounds, bi-cyclic-sesquiterpene alcohols, can be synthesized from trans-trans farnesol via cyclization and rearrangement (Polovinka et al. 1994). They have also been identified in the basidiomycota Lentinus lepideus as secondary metabolites. After 12 days in the growth phase, ${\beta}$-elemene caryophyllene, ${\delta}$-cadiene, and eudesmane were detected with ${\beta}$-eudesmol. The data showed the synthesis of sesquiterpene hydrocarbons with bi-cyclic structures. These compounds can be synthesized from FPP by cyclization. Cyclic terpenoids are synthesized through the formation of a carbon skeleton from linear precursors by terpene cyclase, which is followed by chemical modification by oxidation, reduction, methylation, etc. Sesquiterpene cyclase is a key branch-point enzyme that catalyzes the complex intermolecular cyclization of the linear prenyl diphosphate into cyclic hydrocarbons (Toyomasu et al. 2007). After 20 days in stationary phase, the oxygenated structures eudesmol, elemol, and caryophyllene oxide were detected. Thus, after growth, sesquiterpenes were identified. Per these results, we showed that terpene metabolism in wood-rotting fungi occurs in the stationary phase. We also showed that such metabolism can be controlled by magnesium supplementation in the growth medium. In conclusion, we identified P. brumalis as a wood-rotting fungus that can produce sesquiterpenes. To mechanistically understand eudesmane-type sesquiterpene biosynthesis in P. brumalis, further research into the genes regulating the dynamics of such biosynthesis is warranted.

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The Effect of VDT Work on Vision and Eye Symptoms among Workers in a TV Manufacturing Plant (텔레비젼(TV)생산업체 근로자들의 영상단말기(VDT)작업이 시력과 안증상에 미치는 영향)

  • Woo, Kuck-Hyeun;Choi, Gwang-Seo;Jung, Young-Yeon;Han, Gu-Wung;Park, Jung-Han;Lee, Jong-Hyeob
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.25 no.3 s.39
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    • pp.247-268
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    • 1992
  • This study was conducted to evaluate the effect of VDT work on eyes and vision among workers in a TV manufacturing plant. The study subjects consisted of 264 screen workers and 74 non-screen workers who were less than 40 years old male and had no history of opthalmic diseases such as corneal opacities, trauma, keratitis, etc and whose visual acuity on pre-employment health examination by Han's test chart was 1.0 or above. The screen workers were divided into two groups by actual time for screen work in a day : Group I, 60 workers, lesser than 4 hours a day and group II, 204 workers, more than 4 hours a day. From July to October 1992 a questionnaire was administered to all the study subjects for the general charateristics and subjective eye symptoms after which the opthalmologic tests such as visual acuity, spherical equivalent, lacrimal function, ocular pressure, slit lamp test, fundoscopy were conducted by one opthalmologist. The proportion of workers whose present visual acuity was decreased more than 0.15 in comparison with that on the pre-employment health examination by Han's test chart was 20.6% in Group II. 15.0% in Group I and 14.9% in non-screen workers. However, the differences in proportion were not statistically significant. The proportion of workers with decreased visual acuity was not associated with the age, working duration, use of magnifying glass and type of shift work (independent variables) in all of the three groups. However, screen workers working under poor illumination had a higher proportion of persons with decreased visual acuity than those working under adequate illumination (P<0.05) . The proportion of workers whose near vision was decreased was 27.5% in Group II, 18.3% in Group I, and 28.4% in non-screen workers and these differences in proportion were not statistically significant. Changes of near vision were not associated with 4 independent variables in all of the three groups. Six out of seven subjective eye symptoms except tearing were more common in Group I than in non-screen workers and more common in Group II than in Group I (P<0.01). Mean of the total scores for seven subjective symptoms of each worker(2 points for always, 1 point for sometimes, 0 point for never) was not significantly different between workers with decreased visual acuity and workers with no vision change. However, mean of the total scores for Group II was higher than those for the Group I and non-screen workers (P<0.01). Total eye symptom scores were significantly correlated with the grade of screen work, use of magnifying glass, and type of shift work. There was no independent variable which was correlated with the difference in visual acuity between the pre-employment health examination and the present state, the difference between far and near visions, lacrimal function, ocular pressure, and spherical equivalent. Multiple linear regression analysis for the subjective eye symptom scores revealed a positive linear relationship with actual time for screen work and shift work(P<0.01). In this study it was not observed that the VDT work decreased visual acuity but it induces subjective eye symptoms such as eye fatigue, blurred vision, ocular discomfort, etc. Maintenance of adequate illumination in the work place and control of excessive VDT work are recommended to prevent such eye symptoms.

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Cultural Practices of In vitro Tuber of Pinellia ternata(Thunb.) Breit I. Effects of Planting Time on Growth, Tuber Formation and Yield (기내(器內) 대량(大量) 생산(生産) 반하(半夏) 종구(種球)의 포장(圃場) 재배기술(裁培技術) 연구(硏究) I. 파종시기(播種詩期)가 생육(生育)과 괴경형성(塊莖形成) 및 수량(收量)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Park, Ho-Ki;Kim, Tai-Soo;Park, Moon-Soo;Choi, In-Leok;Jang, Yeong-Sun;Park, Keun-Yong
    • Korean Journal of Medicinal Crop Science
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    • v.1 no.2
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    • pp.109-114
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    • 1993
  • This study was carried out to determine the optimum planting time for in vitromultiplied tuber of Pinellia ternata(Thunb.) Breit. The tubers were planted on April 20, May 20, June 20, July 20, August 20 and September 20 in 1990. Emergence ratios were 68 to 87% in any planting time except planting on July 20. The number of tubers per $m^2$ at harvest in plantings on May 20 and June 20 were significantly higher with 1,110 and 1,021, respectively, while in plantings after July 20, those were drastically decreased. As compared with fresh yield of planting on April 20(352kg /10a), that of May 20 was 109% and June 20 was 103%, while those of after July 20 were from 41% to 19%. There was a highly positive correlation between dry tuber yield and the number of tubers per $m^2(r=0.991^{**})$. Tuber yields for commercial use(diameter over 7.1mm) were high in planting on May 20(322kg /10a) and on June 20(299kg /10a). It was suggested that optimum field planting time for in vitro multiplied tuber of Pinellia ternata(Thunb.) Breit was from May 20 to June May 20.

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System Development for Measuring Group Engagement in the Art Center (공연장에서 다중 몰입도 측정을 위한 시스템 개발)

  • Ryu, Joon Mo;Choi, Il Young;Choi, Lee Kwon;Kim, Jae Kyeong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.45-58
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    • 2014
  • The Korean Culture Contents spread out to Worldwide, because the Korean wave is sweeping in the world. The contents stand in the middle of the Korean wave that we are used it. Each country is ongoing to keep their Culture industry improve the national brand and High added value. Performing contents is important factor of arousal in the enterprise industry. To improve high arousal confidence of product and positive attitude by populace is one of important factor by advertiser. Culture contents is the same situation. If culture contents have trusted by everyone, they will give information their around to spread word-of-mouth. So, many researcher study to measure for person's arousal analysis by statistical survey, physiological response, body movement and facial expression. First, Statistical survey has a problem that it is not possible to measure each person's arousal real time and we cannot get good survey result after they watched contents. Second, physiological response should be checked with surround because experimenter sets sensors up their chair or space by each of them. Additionally it is difficult to handle provided amount of information with real time from their sensor. Third, body movement is easy to get their movement from camera but it difficult to set up experimental condition, to measure their body language and to get the meaning. Lastly, many researcher study facial expression. They measures facial expression, eye tracking and face posed. Most of previous studies about arousal and interest are mostly limited to reaction of just one person and they have problems with application multi audiences. They have a particular method, for example they need room light surround, but set limits only one person and special environment condition in the laboratory. Also, we need to measure arousal in the contents, but is difficult to define also it is not easy to collect reaction by audiences immediately. Many audience in the theater watch performance. We suggest the system to measure multi-audience's reaction with real-time during performance. We use difference image analysis method for multi-audience but it weaks a dark field. To overcome dark environment during recoding IR camera can get the photo from dark area. In addition we present Multi-Audience Engagement Index (MAEI) to calculate algorithm which sources from sound, audience' movement and eye tracking value. Algorithm calculates audience arousal from the mobile survey, sound value, audience' reaction and audience eye's tracking. It improves accuracy of Multi-Audience Engagement Index, we compare Multi-Audience Engagement Index with mobile survey. And then it send the result to reporting system and proposal an interested persons. Mobile surveys are easy, fast, and visitors' discomfort can be minimized. Also additional information can be provided mobile advantage. Mobile application to communicate with the database, real-time information on visitors' attitudes focused on the content stored. Database can provide different survey every time based on provided information. The example shown in the survey are as follows: Impressive scene, Satisfied, Touched, Interested, Didn't pay attention and so on. The suggested system is combine as 3 parts. The system consist of three parts, External Device, Server and Internal Device. External Device can record multi-Audience in the dark field with IR camera and sound signal. Also we use survey with mobile application and send the data to ERD Server DB. The Server part's contain contents' data, such as each scene's weights value, group audience weights index, camera control program, algorithm and calculate Multi-Audience Engagement Index. Internal Device presents Multi-Audience Engagement Index with Web UI, print and display field monitor. Our system is test-operated by the Mogencelab in the DMC display exhibition hall which is located in the Sangam Dong, Mapo Gu, Seoul. We have still gotten from visitor daily. If we find this system audience arousal factor with this will be very useful to create contents.

A Study on Developing a VKOSPI Forecasting Model via GARCH Class Models for Intelligent Volatility Trading Systems (지능형 변동성트레이딩시스템개발을 위한 GARCH 모형을 통한 VKOSPI 예측모형 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sun-Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.19-32
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    • 2010
  • Volatility plays a central role in both academic and practical applications, especially in pricing financial derivative products and trading volatility strategies. This study presents a novel mechanism based on generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models that is able to enhance the performance of intelligent volatility trading systems by predicting Korean stock market volatility more accurately. In particular, we embedded the concept of the volatility asymmetry documented widely in the literature into our model. The newly developed Korean stock market volatility index of KOSPI 200, VKOSPI, is used as a volatility proxy. It is the price of a linear portfolio of the KOSPI 200 index options and measures the effect of the expectations of dealers and option traders on stock market volatility for 30 calendar days. The KOSPI 200 index options market started in 1997 and has become the most actively traded market in the world. Its trading volume is more than 10 million contracts a day and records the highest of all the stock index option markets. Therefore, analyzing the VKOSPI has great importance in understanding volatility inherent in option prices and can afford some trading ideas for futures and option dealers. Use of the VKOSPI as volatility proxy avoids statistical estimation problems associated with other measures of volatility since the VKOSPI is model-free expected volatility of market participants calculated directly from the transacted option prices. This study estimates the symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models for the KOSPI 200 index from January 2003 to December 2006 by the maximum likelihood procedure. Asymmetric GARCH models include GJR-GARCH model of Glosten, Jagannathan and Runke, exponential GARCH model of Nelson and power autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) of Ding, Granger and Engle. Symmetric GARCH model indicates basic GARCH (1, 1). Tomorrow's forecasted value and change direction of stock market volatility are obtained by recursive GARCH specifications from January 2007 to December 2009 and are compared with the VKOSPI. Empirical results indicate that negative unanticipated returns increase volatility more than positive return shocks of equal magnitude decrease volatility, indicating the existence of volatility asymmetry in the Korean stock market. The point value and change direction of tomorrow VKOSPI are estimated and forecasted by GARCH models. Volatility trading system is developed using the forecasted change direction of the VKOSPI, that is, if tomorrow VKOSPI is expected to rise, a long straddle or strangle position is established. A short straddle or strangle position is taken if VKOSPI is expected to fall tomorrow. Total profit is calculated as the cumulative sum of the VKOSPI percentage change. If forecasted direction is correct, the absolute value of the VKOSPI percentage changes is added to trading profit. It is subtracted from the trading profit if forecasted direction is not correct. For the in-sample period, the power ARCH model best fits in a statistical metric, Mean Squared Prediction Error (MSPE), and the exponential GARCH model shows the highest Mean Correct Prediction (MCP). The power ARCH model best fits also for the out-of-sample period and provides the highest probability for the VKOSPI change direction tomorrow. Generally, the power ARCH model shows the best fit for the VKOSPI. All the GARCH models provide trading profits for volatility trading system and the exponential GARCH model shows the best performance, annual profit of 197.56%, during the in-sample period. The GARCH models present trading profits during the out-of-sample period except for the exponential GARCH model. During the out-of-sample period, the power ARCH model shows the largest annual trading profit of 38%. The volatility clustering and asymmetry found in this research are the reflection of volatility non-linearity. This further suggests that combining the asymmetric GARCH models and artificial neural networks can significantly enhance the performance of the suggested volatility trading system, since artificial neural networks have been shown to effectively model nonlinear relationships.

Construction of Consumer Confidence index based on Sentiment analysis using News articles (뉴스기사를 이용한 소비자의 경기심리지수 생성)

  • Song, Minchae;Shin, Kyung-shik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.1-27
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    • 2017
  • It is known that the economic sentiment index and macroeconomic indicators are closely related because economic agent's judgment and forecast of the business conditions affect economic fluctuations. For this reason, consumer sentiment or confidence provides steady fodder for business and is treated as an important piece of economic information. In Korea, private consumption accounts and consumer sentiment index highly relevant for both, which is a very important economic indicator for evaluating and forecasting the domestic economic situation. However, despite offering relevant insights into private consumption and GDP, the traditional approach to measuring the consumer confidence based on the survey has several limits. One possible weakness is that it takes considerable time to research, collect, and aggregate the data. If certain urgent issues arise, timely information will not be announced until the end of each month. In addition, the survey only contains information derived from questionnaire items, which means it can be difficult to catch up to the direct effects of newly arising issues. The survey also faces potential declines in response rates and erroneous responses. Therefore, it is necessary to find a way to complement it. For this purpose, we construct and assess an index designed to measure consumer economic sentiment index using sentiment analysis. Unlike the survey-based measures, our index relies on textual analysis to extract sentiment from economic and financial news articles. In particular, text data such as news articles and SNS are timely and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. There exist two main approaches to the automatic extraction of sentiment from a text, we apply the lexicon-based approach, using sentiment lexicon dictionaries of words annotated with the semantic orientations. In creating the sentiment lexicon dictionaries, we enter the semantic orientation of individual words manually, though we do not attempt a full linguistic analysis (one that involves analysis of word senses or argument structure); this is the limitation of our research and further work in that direction remains possible. In this study, we generate a time series index of economic sentiment in the news. The construction of the index consists of three broad steps: (1) Collecting a large corpus of economic news articles on the web, (2) Applying lexicon-based methods for sentiment analysis of each article to score the article in terms of sentiment orientation (positive, negative and neutral), and (3) Constructing an economic sentiment index of consumers by aggregating monthly time series for each sentiment word. In line with existing scholarly assessments of the relationship between the consumer confidence index and macroeconomic indicators, any new index should be assessed for its usefulness. We examine the new index's usefulness by comparing other economic indicators to the CSI. To check the usefulness of the newly index based on sentiment analysis, trend and cross - correlation analysis are carried out to analyze the relations and lagged structure. Finally, we analyze the forecasting power using the one step ahead of out of sample prediction. As a result, the news sentiment index correlates strongly with related contemporaneous key indicators in almost all experiments. We also find that news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity in most cases. In almost all experiments, the news sentiment index strongly correlates with related contemporaneous key indicators. Furthermore, in most cases, news sentiment shocks predict future economic activity; in head-to-head comparisons, the news sentiment measures outperform survey-based sentiment index as CSI. Policy makers want to understand consumer or public opinions about existing or proposed policies. Such opinions enable relevant government decision-makers to respond quickly to monitor various web media, SNS, or news articles. Textual data, such as news articles and social networks (Twitter, Facebook and blogs) are generated at high-speeds and cover a wide range of issues; because such sources can quickly capture the economic impact of specific economic issues, they have great potential as economic indicators. Although research using unstructured data in economic analysis is in its early stages, but the utilization of data is expected to greatly increase once its usefulness is confirmed.