• 대한공간정보학회지
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• 제18권1호
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• pp.129-134
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• 2010

저탄소 녹색성장은 국내외적으로 중요한 정치적 이슈가 되고 있으며, 한국정부는 최근 저탄소 녹색성장을 위한 비젼을 발표하였다. 이런 관점에서 탄소배출 추정은 도시계획에 있어서 중요한 요소가 되고 있다. 탄소저감 계획을 수립하기 위하여 본 연구에서는 과거 40년 동안 진주시의 탄소배출 추정과 토지이용변화의 상호추이변화를 분석하였다. 토지적성평가 데이터베이스와 항공영상의 영상처리자료는 과거 40년간의 토지이용변화를 분석하는데 유효한 정보를 주었으며, 신주거지 개발에 의한 토지이용변화는 급격한 인구집중과 탄소배출증가를 가져왔다. 앞으로 저탄소 녹색성장을 위한 도시관리계획에 있어서 토지이용변화에 따른 탄소배출 증가를 계획수립 시 반드시 고려해야하며, 향 후 토지이용과 연료소비추정이 포함된 정확한 탄소배출 추정모델개발에 대한 추가적인 연구가 필요하다고 사료된다.

• 한국융합학회논문지
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• 제10권5호
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• pp.51-61
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• 2019

본 연구는 사회경제적 상태의 지표인 교육수준 및 소득수준과 수은, 납, 카드뮴의 혈중 중금속 농도간의 관련성을 살펴보고자 하였다. 국민건강영양조사 2013-2015년 자료를 이용하여 성별에 따른 사회경제적상태와 혈중 중금속 농도간의 관련성을 분석하기 위해 로지스틱회귀분석을 실시하였다. 분석결과 한국성인의 교육과 소득수준이 높을수록 혈중 수은의 농도는 증가하는 경향이 나타났고, 혈중 납과 카드뮴의 농도는 감소하는 경향을 보였다 (P for trend <0.001). 혈중 중금속 농도의 유병률이 증가하고 있는 시점에서 사회경제적수준에 따른 건강불평등을 해결하기 위한 국가차원의 공중보건학적 정책이 필요할 것으로 사료된다.

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제27권2호
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• pp.178-187
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• 2011

National water supply, water resources available, the ratio of water supply to total water resources, and the ratio of water supply to available water resources were investigated to find global seawater desalination plant market for 163 nations. Water resources available per capita from 2007 to 2016, population in water scarcity region from 2011 to 2016, and the ratio of water scarcity population to total population were also analyzed for the countries. Annual percentage increase in total municipal drinking water capital expenditure and Annual percentage increase in total industrial water market were analyzed to predict the amount of water supply by use. 76 countries are suffering from water scarcity and 60 countries among the countries have coastal regions. Forty countries were selected by considering the considerable amount and highly increasing trend of water demand by use. Most countries show increasing trend of industrial water and 82 countries have more than 4% annual increasing rate for domestic water expense from 2008 to 2016 among 163 countries. Among the 76 water scarcity countries 16 countries were finally selected by considering expense prediction by use. Middle-east, east asia, pacific ocean, and west europe regions include most selected countries.

• Animal Bioscience
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• 제34권4호
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• pp.471-481
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• 2021

Objective: A comprehensive study was conducted to study the effects of partition of variance on accuracy of genetic parameters and genetic trends of economic traits in Vanaraja male line/project directorate-1 (PD-1) chicken. Methods: Variance component analysis utilizing restricted maximum likelihood animal model was carried out with five generations data to delineate the population status, direct additive, maternal genetic, permanent environmental effects, besides genetic trends and performance of economic traits in PD-1 chickens. Genetic trend was estimated by regression of the estimated average breeding values (BV) on generations. Results: The body weight (BW) and shank length (SL) varied significantly (p≤0.01) among the generations, hatches and sexes. The least squares mean of SL at six weeks, the primary trait was 77.44±0.05 mm. All the production traits, viz., BWs, age at sexual maturity, egg production (EP) and egg weight were significantly influenced by generation. Model four with additive, maternal permanent environmental and residual effects was the best model for juvenile growth traits, except for zero-day BW. The heritability estimates for BW and SL at six weeks (SL6) were 0.20±0.03 and 0.17±0.03, respectively. The BV of SL6 in the population increased linearly from 0.03 to 3.62 mm due to selection. Genetic trend was significant (p≤0.05) for SL6, BW6, and production traits. The average genetic gain of EP40 for each generation was significant (p≤0.05) with an average increase of 0.38 eggs per generation. The average inbreeding coefficient was 0.02 in PD-1 line. Conclusion: The population was in ideal condition with negligible inbreeding and the selection was quite effective with significant genetic gains in each generation for primary trait of selection. The animal model minimized the over-estimation of genetic parameters and improved the accuracy of the BV, thus enabling the breeder to select the suitable breeding strategy for genetic improvement.

• 보건행정학회지
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• 제31권2호
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• pp.225-231
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• 2021

Unmet healthcare is an important indicator to measure accessibility of healthcare services. To examine the latest status of unmet healthcare needs in South Korea, the four different data which is composed of nationally representative sample of South Korean population were used; the Korea Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNAHANES, 2007-2019), the Community Health Survey (CHS, 2008-2019), the Korea Health Panel Survey (KHP, 2011-2017), and the Korean Welfare Panel Study (KOWEPS, 2006-2019). The proportion of individuals reporting unmet healthcare needs were 5.8% (KNHANES), 5.3% (CHS), and 11.6% (KHP). Annual percentage change (APC) which identifies trend for the follow-up period was -9.5%, -8.0%, and -6.5%, respectively. The proportion of individuals reporting unmet healthcare needs due to cost were 1.1% (KNAHANES), 0.7% (CHS), 2.4% (KHP), and 0.4% (KOWEPS). The APC was -10.5%, -14.2%, -12.2%, and -19.6%, respectively. Compared to last year, the rate of unmet healthcare needs has declined in general. However, the low-income and the elderly population were reporting the highest rate of unmet health care needs, and the disparity between lowest and highest groups were remained. These results suggest that adequate benefit coverage is needed for low-income and elderly population.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제15권1호
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• pp.319-334
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• 2024

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to examine the gravity model commonly used for demand forecasting upon the implementation of new tourist facilities and analyze the main causation of forecasting errors to provide a suggestion on how to improve. Design/methodology/approach - This study first measured the errors in predicted values derived from past feasibility study reports by examining the cases of five national science museums. Next, to improve the predictive accuracy of the gravity model, the study identified the five most likely issues contributing to errors, applied modified values, and recalculated. The potential for improvement was then evaluated through a comparison of forecasting errors. Findings - First, among the five science museums with very similar characteristics, there was no clear indication of a decrease in the number of visitors to existing facilities due to the introduction of new facilities. Second, representing the attractiveness of tourist facilities using the facility size ratio can lead to significant prediction errors. Third, the impact of distance on demand can vary depending on the characteristics of the facility and the conditions of the area where the facility is located. Fourth, if the distance value is below 1, it is necessary to limit the range of that value to avoid having an excessively small value. Fifth, depending on the type of population data used, prediction results may vary, so it is necessary to use population data suitable for each latent market instead of simply using overall population data. Finally, if a clear trend is anticipated in a certain type of tourist behavior, incorporating this trend into the predicted values could help reduce prediction errors. Research implications or Originality - This study identified the key factors causing prediction errors by using national science museums as cases and proposed directions for improvement. Additionally, suggestions were made to apply the model more flexibly to enhance predictive accuracy. Since reducing prediction errors contributes to increased reliability of analytical results, the findings of this study are expected to contribute to policy decisions handled with more accurate information when running feasibility analyses.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권5호
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• pp.2513-2518
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• 2016

Background: In 2008, non-Hodgkin lymphoma ranked tenth among other malignancies worldwide with an incidence of around 5 cases per 100,000 in both genders. The latest available rates in Tunisia are from 2006. Materials and Methods: This study aimed to provide an update about NHL incidence for 2009 and its trend between 1998 and 2009 as well as a projection until 2024, using data from the Salah Azaiz Institute hospital registry and the Noth Tunisia cancer registry. Results: In 2009, the NHL incidence in the north of Tunisia was 4.03 cases per 100,000, 4.97 for men and 3.10 for women. Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) accounted for 63.2% of all NHL subtypes. Between 1998 and 2009, the overall trend showed no significant change. When we compared the trend between two periods (1998-2005 and 2005-2009), joinpoint regression showed a significant decrease of NHL incidence in the first period with an annual percentage change (APC) of -6.7% (95% CI:[-11.2%;-2%]), then the incidence significantly increased from 2005 to 2009 with an APC of 30.5% (95% CI: [16.1%; 46.6%]. The analyses of the different subtype trends showed a significant decrease in DLBCL incidence between 1998 and 2000 (APC:-21.5; 95% CI: [-31.4%;-10.2%]) then the incidence significantly increased between 2004 and 2007 (APC: 18.5; 95% CI: [3,6%;35.5%]). Joint point analysis of the age-period-cohort model projection showed a significant increase between 2002 and 2024 with an APC of 4.5% (%95 CI: [1.5%; 7.5%]). The estimated ASR for 2024 was 4.55/100 000 (95% CI: [3.37; 6.15]). Conclusions: This study revealed an overall steady trend in the incidence of NHL in northern Tunisia between 1998 and 2009. Projection showed an increase in the incidence in NHL in both genders which draw the attention to the national and worldwide burden of this malignancy.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권9호
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• pp.4115-4121
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• 2015

Background: Colorectal cancer is the second most common cause of cancer death with half a million deaths per year. Incidence and mortality rates have demonstrated notable changes in Asian and African countries during the last few decades. In this study, we first aimed to determine the trend of colorectal cancer mortality rate in each Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) region, and then re-classify them to find more homogenous classes. Materials and Methods: Our study population consisted of 52 countries of Asia and North Africa in six IHME pre-defined regions for both genders and age-standardized groups from 1990 to 2010.We first applied simple growth models for pre-defined IHME regions to estimate the intercepts and slopes of mortality rate trends. Then, we clustered the 52 described countries using the latent growth mixture modeling approach for classifying them based on their colorectal mortality rates over time. Results: Statistical analysis revealed that males and people in high income Asia pacific and East Asia countries were at greater risk of death from colon and rectum cancer. In addition, South Asia region had the lowest rates of mortality due to this cancer. Simple growth modeling showed that majority of IHME regions had decreasing trend in mortality rate of colorectal cancer. However, re-classification these countries based on their mortality trend using the latent growth mixture model resulted in more homogeneous classes according to colorectal mortality trend. Conclusions: In general, our statistical analyses showed that most Asian and North African countries had upward trend in their colorectal cancer mortality. We therefore urge the health policy makers in these countries to evaluate the causes of growing mortality and study the interventional programs of successful countries in managing the consequences of this cancer.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제17권1호
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• pp.407-412
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• 2016

Background: Considering the rising incidence of thyroid cancer worldwide, the aim of our study was to investigate the temporal trends in the incidence of this cancer in a large population of Iranian patients. Materials and Methods: We used the Iran Cancer Data System (ICDS) Registry to assess the thyroid cancer trend from 2004 to 2010 with regard to different genders, age groups, and morphologies. To do this we analyzed the data of 10,913 new cases of thyroid cancer that occurred during these years. Results: The incidence rate (per one year) of thyroid cancer was 2.20 per 100,000 persons between 2004 and 2010 in Iran. Papillary thyroid cancer was the most common histology type, with an annual rate of 0.29 in Iran. The highest rate of prevalence in thyroid cancer was observed at the age of 45 years at the time of diagnosis. We found a female-to-male ratio of 2 in Iran. A significant decrease was detected in the trend of thyroid cancer in children <19y, which was not correlated to the trend of older patients. Conclusions: As expected, the trend of thyroid cancer increased over the 7 years, primarily contributed by papillary thyroid cancer. A rising pattern of incidence was seen in all the age groups except patients aged under 19 years.

• 가정과삶의질연구
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• 제26권1호
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• pp.51-67
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• 2008

The study analyzes divorce rates in Korea and makes suggestions for the future research of divorce rates. Based on the data from Korea Statistical Information System (KOSIS) of the National Statistics Organization, trends for divorce rates change and the relations between divorce rates and macro environmental factors are analyzed. Macro environmental factors include socioeconomic factors such as, Korean War, Vietnam War, oil shock, IMP economic crisis and gross national income (GNI), whereas demographical factors include population structure, rates of female labor participation, and geographical location. The principle characteristics of divorce rates are as follows: 1) the Crude divorce rates (CDR) and the number of divorced had been increased from 1970 to 2004, then the trend changed to a decrease; 2) the slope of the change were the highest during 1998 to 2004 after the IMP economic crisis. The relations between socioeconomic factors are as follows: 1) during the war there was a small increase of CDR for a short period of time; 2) the economic crisis of the nation tend to increase the CDR, while the IMP economic crisis had a strong impact on an increase of CDR because of the interaction effect among the population structure, women's sex role changes as well as the level of standard of living. The increase in CDR from 1990 to 2000 can be explained partly by the population of baby Boomers passing through their marriage and divorce process. The number of population residing in the rural area and the middle class households, and the mobility of population also had an impact on the divorce rates changes. The recommendations for the future research were as follows: 1) the need to develop new divorce statistics that are based on a marriage cohort or a birth cohort because family behavior is a mixture of personal, social and political responses, and because CDR is not an accurate measure of divorce rate since it was influenced by population structure; 2) the need to include micro personal factors as well as macro social factors in a model to find an interaction effect between those variables.