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Clinical Analysis of Influenza in Children and Rapid Antigen Detection Test on First Half of the Year 2004 in Busan (2004 상반기 부산 지역에서 유행한 인플루엔자의 임상 역학적 분석 및 인플루엔자 진단에 있어서의 신속 항원 검사법)

  • Choi, So Young;Lee, Na Young;Kim, Sung Mi;Kim, Gil Heun;Jung, Jin Hwa;Choi, Im Jung;Cho, Kyung Soon
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.158-169
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    • 2004
  • Purpose : Although influenza is one of the most important cause of acute respiratory tract infections in children, virus isolation is not popular and there are only a few clinical studies on influenza and diagnostic methods. We evaluated the epidemiological and clinical features of influenza in children and rapid antigen detection test(QuickVue influenza test) on fist half of the year 2004 in Busan. Methods : From January 2004 to June 2004, throat swab and nasal secretion were obtained and cultured for the isolation of influenza virus and tested by rapid antigen detection test(QuickVue influenza test) in children with suspected influenza infections. The medical records of patients with influenza virus infection were reviewed retrospectively. Results : Influenza viruses were isolated in 79(17.2%) out of 621 patients examined. Influenza virus was isolated mainly from March to April 2004. The ratio of male and female with influenza virus infection was 1.2 : 1 with median age of 4 years 6month. The most common clinical diagnosis of influenza virus infection was bronchitis. There was no difference between influenza A and B infection in clinical diagnosis and symptoms. All patients recovered without severe complication. The sensitivity obtained for rapid antigen detection test (QuickVue influenza test) was 93.6% and the specificity was 80.2%, the positive predictive value 40.8%, the negative predictive value 98.8%. Conclusion : With rapid antigen detection test, it is possible early detection of influenza in children. reduction in use of antimicrobial agent and early use of antiviral agent.

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A Study of the Effect of Model Characteristics on Purchasing intentions and Brand Attitudes (광고모델 특성이 구매의도와 브랜드태도에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Sung-Duck;Youn, Myoung-Kil;Kim, Ki-Soo
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.47-53
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    • 2012
  • Businesses make use of advertising strategy using models to give consumers efficient product information. Modern advertisements often make use of models for greater reminiscence to create messages and remind viewers of the product. The purpose of this study was to examine the characteristics of each type of model. The subjects were 230 college students in their twenties or older, and the material was collected from October 20, 2011 to November 5, 2011 to examine the effects of model characteristics on buying intention as well as attitude toward a brand. A questionnaire survey was used; investigators gave one copy to each interviewee. The study investigated the characteristics of each model using a questionnaire of each 40 copies with five kinds of photographs. The characteristics of models had great influence on buying intention and attitude toward the brand: First, factor 2 (being honest and virtuous and having good credit and a good press assessment) and factor 3 (being interesting and a good communicator and creating good memories) had great influence on buying intention. Factor 2 was explained by reliability, and factor 3 by the efficiency of the model in creating a feeling. Second, factors 1 (being attractive, smart, unique, friendly, loved by others, and popular), 2, and 3 influenced attitude toward brand. Factor 1 encapsulated the outgoing characteristics of a model, factor 2 was based on reliability, and factor 3 was based on the efficiency of the model in creating a feeling. The model's positive effects on buying intention and attitudes toward brand shall be examined. For their positive influence on buying intention, reliability and efficiency shall be given attention. For their positive influence on attitude toward brand, creating a good impression, having outgoing characteristics, being reliable, and efficiency shall be given attention. The findings were as follows: Model characteristics influencing buying intention were similar to those influencing attitude toward brand. The differences were as follows. First, reliability and efficiency influenced buying intention. When customers were asked to consider the influence on buying intention of an advertisement, regardless of the strength of the buying intention, they considered these two characteristics. Customers decided to buy based not only on the credibility of the product as presented in the advertisement but also the transmission of the contents of the advertisement. Second, outgoing characteristics, reliability, and efficiency influenced attitude toward a brand. The attitude toward a brand was said to be the attitude toward the business. The attitude is produced even after buying, so businesses view it as very important. The attitude might vary depending upon the model used rather than the brand. Therefore, a model with outgoing characteristics was thought to be important. Therefore, attitude toward a brand whose model influenced buying intention as well as attitude toward brand had outgoing characteristics. The result is that an image the model was related to attitude toward the brand. As such, customers would buy the goods advertised. However, an outgoing image of a model was also important to create a positive attitude toward a business brand. For instance, talent Park Gyeong-Rim's photo was used to promote cosmetics about 10 years ago. When she worked as a model of cosmetics products, she had to make compensation for losses and damages because she made a mistake on a talk show program. At that time, customers who had bought the cosmetics product asked for refunds of several billion won. As such, models who are said to be the face of the businesses they represent can play an important role. To advertise in the most attractive and effective way, the current image of a model should be investigated by examining current activities and news articles after selecting the model, and the model's efficiency and attitude toward the brand should be examined. Factors that stimulate customers' buying decisions can be used to plan advertisement that have positive influence on a brand. This study had the limitation of investigating mainly college students and there were insufficient copies of the questionnaire. The investigation was not done widely but in detail so that a concrete investigation could not be done. Further studies shall supplement these shortcomings and discuss new directions.

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A Basic Study on Spatial Recognition through Poet in Soswaewon Garden (시문을 통해 본 소쇄원의 공간인식에 관한 기초연구)

  • Lee, Won-Ho;Kim, Dong-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.38-49
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    • 2015
  • This study aims to contemplated spatial recognition in Soswaewon Garden through garden visitors poetry. It was content analysis in poetry and extract frequency from words based on relationship of author. The results were as follows. First, relationship of authors who wrote Soswaewon Garden poetry was formed in companionship. In the Yang, San-Bo(梁山甫), poetry was written by Song, Soon(宋純), Kim, Un-Geo(金彦据) and Kim, In-Hu(金麟厚) as the central figure. Especially Kim, In-Hu was playing an important role in Soswaewon Garden poetry. He was wrote many of poetry and keep friends with Yang, Ja-Jeong(梁子渟) too. In the Yang, Ja-Jung, relationship of previous generation was sustained. In addition, Ko, Gyeong-Myeong(高敬命) and Kim, Seong-Won and Jeong, Chul(鄭澈) is more closely related than others. Because blood relationship by marriage. In the Yang, Jin-Tae(梁晋泰), He formed a relationship with a celebrity and attend to international activity. Since then Yang, Jin-Tae periord, Yang, Gyeong-Ji(梁敬之) and Yang, Chae-Ji(梁采之) formed relationship of previous generation was sustained. And surrounding people was written poetry as hold a banquet. Second, plant and ornament is a popular object for writing poetry. Bamboo grove and Fine tree with a high frequency of plant element in poetry. Bamboo grove is a typical species of trees in Soswaewon Garden. It was enclosed the Soswaewon Garden. Fine tree was often used target of poetry as a single tree. Meanwhile, ornament of the wall has been used most frequently. Descendants wrote a poem to see it because Kim, In-Hu's poetry was left. This phenomenon is involves respect for the ancient sages with high frequency. In addition, behavior of viewing the landscape was mainly appeared. Third, spatial recognition of Soswaewon Garden can be divided into landscape cognition, behavior cognition and emotional cognition. In a aspect of landscape cognition, early Soswaewon Garden was recognized as a pavilion. That was used garden name to 'Soswaewon Garden' since Yang, Ja-Jung's period. That is to say, Soswaewon Garden expanded from pavilion area surrounded by trees into the whole appearance is equipped garden area. Behavior cognition was consisting drink and enjoys a landscape. In the Yang, San-Bo, authors enjoyed drinking and viewing a landscape besides walking, writing poetry, viewing the moon. But after Yang, San-Bo's period other than drinking and enjoy a landscape has appeared a low frequency. These results were changed from internal place to blood relationship into external place to companionship. In the Yang, San-Bo's emotional cognition was sorrow and yearning about leave to Soswaewon Garden with an idly atmosphere. Pleasant emotion was sustained all generation. And emotion of respect for the ancient sages was appeared since Yang, Cheon-un.

Resolving the 'Gray sheep' Problem Using Social Network Analysis (SNA) in Collaborative Filtering (CF) Recommender Systems (소셜 네트워크 분석 기법을 활용한 협업필터링의 특이취향 사용자(Gray Sheep) 문제 해결)

  • Kim, Minsung;Im, Il
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.137-148
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    • 2014
  • Recommender system has become one of the most important technologies in e-commerce in these days. The ultimate reason to shop online, for many consumers, is to reduce the efforts for information search and purchase. Recommender system is a key technology to serve these needs. Many of the past studies about recommender systems have been devoted to developing and improving recommendation algorithms and collaborative filtering (CF) is known to be the most successful one. Despite its success, however, CF has several shortcomings such as cold-start, sparsity, gray sheep problems. In order to be able to generate recommendations, ordinary CF algorithms require evaluations or preference information directly from users. For new users who do not have any evaluations or preference information, therefore, CF cannot come up with recommendations (Cold-star problem). As the numbers of products and customers increase, the scale of the data increases exponentially and most of the data cells are empty. This sparse dataset makes computation for recommendation extremely hard (Sparsity problem). Since CF is based on the assumption that there are groups of users sharing common preferences or tastes, CF becomes inaccurate if there are many users with rare and unique tastes (Gray sheep problem). This study proposes a new algorithm that utilizes Social Network Analysis (SNA) techniques to resolve the gray sheep problem. We utilize 'degree centrality' in SNA to identify users with unique preferences (gray sheep). Degree centrality in SNA refers to the number of direct links to and from a node. In a network of users who are connected through common preferences or tastes, those with unique tastes have fewer links to other users (nodes) and they are isolated from other users. Therefore, gray sheep can be identified by calculating degree centrality of each node. We divide the dataset into two, gray sheep and others, based on the degree centrality of the users. Then, different similarity measures and recommendation methods are applied to these two datasets. More detail algorithm is as follows: Step 1: Convert the initial data which is a two-mode network (user to item) into an one-mode network (user to user). Step 2: Calculate degree centrality of each node and separate those nodes having degree centrality values lower than the pre-set threshold. The threshold value is determined by simulations such that the accuracy of CF for the remaining dataset is maximized. Step 3: Ordinary CF algorithm is applied to the remaining dataset. Step 4: Since the separated dataset consist of users with unique tastes, an ordinary CF algorithm cannot generate recommendations for them. A 'popular item' method is used to generate recommendations for these users. The F measures of the two datasets are weighted by the numbers of nodes and summed to be used as the final performance metric. In order to test performance improvement by this new algorithm, an empirical study was conducted using a publically available dataset - the MovieLens data by GroupLens research team. We used 100,000 evaluations by 943 users on 1,682 movies. The proposed algorithm was compared with an ordinary CF algorithm utilizing 'Best-N-neighbors' and 'Cosine' similarity method. The empirical results show that F measure was improved about 11% on average when the proposed algorithm was used

    . Past studies to improve CF performance typically used additional information other than users' evaluations such as demographic data. Some studies applied SNA techniques as a new similarity metric. This study is novel in that it used SNA to separate dataset. This study shows that performance of CF can be improved, without any additional information, when SNA techniques are used as proposed. This study has several theoretical and practical implications. This study empirically shows that the characteristics of dataset can affect the performance of CF recommender systems. This helps researchers understand factors affecting performance of CF. This study also opens a door for future studies in the area of applying SNA to CF to analyze characteristics of dataset. In practice, this study provides guidelines to improve performance of CF recommender systems with a simple modification.

  • Context Sharing Framework Based on Time Dependent Metadata for Social News Service (소셜 뉴스를 위한 시간 종속적인 메타데이터 기반의 컨텍스트 공유 프레임워크)

    • Ga, Myung-Hyun;Oh, Kyeong-Jin;Hong, Myung-Duk;Jo, Geun-Sik
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.19 no.4
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      • pp.39-53
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      • 2013
    • The emergence of the internet technology and SNS has increased the information flow and has changed the way people to communicate from one-way to two-way communication. Users not only consume and share the information, they also can create and share it among their friends across the social network service. It also changes the Social Media behavior to become one of the most important communication tools which also includes Social TV. Social TV is a form which people can watch a TV program and at the same share any information or its content with friends through Social media. Social News is getting popular and also known as a Participatory Social Media. It creates influences on user interest through Internet to represent society issues and creates news credibility based on user's reputation. However, the conventional platforms in news services only focus on the news recommendation domain. Recent development in SNS has changed this landscape to allow user to share and disseminate the news. Conventional platform does not provide any special way for news to be share. Currently, Social News Service only allows user to access the entire news. Nonetheless, they cannot access partial of the contents which related to users interest. For example user only have interested to a partial of the news and share the content, it is still hard for them to do so. In worst cases users might understand the news in different context. To solve this, Social News Service must provide a method to provide additional information. For example, Yovisto known as an academic video searching service provided time dependent metadata from the video. User can search and watch partial of video content according to time dependent metadata. They also can share content with a friend in social media. Yovisto applies a method to divide or synchronize a video based whenever the slides presentation is changed to another page. However, we are not able to employs this method on news video since the news video is not incorporating with any power point slides presentation. Segmentation method is required to separate the news video and to creating time dependent metadata. In this work, In this paper, a time dependent metadata-based framework is proposed to segment news contents and to provide time dependent metadata so that user can use context information to communicate with their friends. The transcript of the news is divided by using the proposed story segmentation method. We provide a tag to represent the entire content of the news. And provide the sub tag to indicate the segmented news which includes the starting time of the news. The time dependent metadata helps user to track the news information. It also allows them to leave a comment on each segment of the news. User also may share the news based on time metadata as segmented news or as a whole. Therefore, it helps the user to understand the shared news. To demonstrate the performance, we evaluate the story segmentation accuracy and also the tag generation. For this purpose, we measured accuracy of the story segmentation through semantic similarity and compared to the benchmark algorithm. Experimental results show that the proposed method outperforms benchmark algorithms in terms of the accuracy of story segmentation. It is important to note that sub tag accuracy is the most important as a part of the proposed framework to share the specific news context with others. To extract a more accurate sub tags, we have created stop word list that is not related to the content of the news such as name of the anchor or reporter. And we applied to framework. We have analyzed the accuracy of tags and sub tags which represent the context of news. From the analysis, it seems that proposed framework is helpful to users for sharing their opinions with context information in Social media and Social news.

    Efficient Topic Modeling by Mapping Global and Local Topics (전역 토픽의 지역 매핑을 통한 효율적 토픽 모델링 방안)

    • Choi, Hochang;Kim, Namgyu
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.23 no.3
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      • pp.69-94
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      • 2017
    • Recently, increase of demand for big data analysis has been driving the vigorous development of related technologies and tools. In addition, development of IT and increased penetration rate of smart devices are producing a large amount of data. According to this phenomenon, data analysis technology is rapidly becoming popular. Also, attempts to acquire insights through data analysis have been continuously increasing. It means that the big data analysis will be more important in various industries for the foreseeable future. Big data analysis is generally performed by a small number of experts and delivered to each demander of analysis. However, increase of interest about big data analysis arouses activation of computer programming education and development of many programs for data analysis. Accordingly, the entry barriers of big data analysis are gradually lowering and data analysis technology being spread out. As the result, big data analysis is expected to be performed by demanders of analysis themselves. Along with this, interest about various unstructured data is continually increasing. Especially, a lot of attention is focused on using text data. Emergence of new platforms and techniques using the web bring about mass production of text data and active attempt to analyze text data. Furthermore, result of text analysis has been utilized in various fields. Text mining is a concept that embraces various theories and techniques for text analysis. Many text mining techniques are utilized in this field for various research purposes, topic modeling is one of the most widely used and studied. Topic modeling is a technique that extracts the major issues from a lot of documents, identifies the documents that correspond to each issue and provides identified documents as a cluster. It is evaluated as a very useful technique in that reflect the semantic elements of the document. Traditional topic modeling is based on the distribution of key terms across the entire document. Thus, it is essential to analyze the entire document at once to identify topic of each document. This condition causes a long time in analysis process when topic modeling is applied to a lot of documents. In addition, it has a scalability problem that is an exponential increase in the processing time with the increase of analysis objects. This problem is particularly noticeable when the documents are distributed across multiple systems or regions. To overcome these problems, divide and conquer approach can be applied to topic modeling. It means dividing a large number of documents into sub-units and deriving topics through repetition of topic modeling to each unit. This method can be used for topic modeling on a large number of documents with limited system resources, and can improve processing speed of topic modeling. It also can significantly reduce analysis time and cost through ability to analyze documents in each location or place without combining analysis object documents. However, despite many advantages, this method has two major problems. First, the relationship between local topics derived from each unit and global topics derived from entire document is unclear. It means that in each document, local topics can be identified, but global topics cannot be identified. Second, a method for measuring the accuracy of the proposed methodology should be established. That is to say, assuming that global topic is ideal answer, the difference in a local topic on a global topic needs to be measured. By those difficulties, the study in this method is not performed sufficiently, compare with other studies dealing with topic modeling. In this paper, we propose a topic modeling approach to solve the above two problems. First of all, we divide the entire document cluster(Global set) into sub-clusters(Local set), and generate the reduced entire document cluster(RGS, Reduced global set) that consist of delegated documents extracted from each local set. We try to solve the first problem by mapping RGS topics and local topics. Along with this, we verify the accuracy of the proposed methodology by detecting documents, whether to be discerned as the same topic at result of global and local set. Using 24,000 news articles, we conduct experiments to evaluate practical applicability of the proposed methodology. In addition, through additional experiment, we confirmed that the proposed methodology can provide similar results to the entire topic modeling. We also proposed a reasonable method for comparing the result of both methods.

    Derivation of Digital Music's Ranking Change Through Time Series Clustering (시계열 군집분석을 통한 디지털 음원의 순위 변화 패턴 분류)

    • Yoo, In-Jin;Park, Do-Hyung
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.26 no.3
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      • pp.171-191
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      • 2020
    • This study focused on digital music, which is the most valuable cultural asset in the modern society and occupies a particularly important position in the flow of the Korean Wave. Digital music was collected based on the "Gaon Chart," a well-established music chart in Korea. Through this, the changes in the ranking of the music that entered the chart for 73 weeks were collected. Afterwards, patterns with similar characteristics were derived through time series cluster analysis. Then, a descriptive analysis was performed on the notable features of each pattern. The research process suggested by this study is as follows. First, in the data collection process, time series data was collected to check the ranking change of digital music. Subsequently, in the data processing stage, the collected data was matched with the rankings over time, and the music title and artist name were processed. Each analysis is then sequentially performed in two stages consisting of exploratory analysis and explanatory analysis. First, the data collection period was limited to the period before 'the music bulk buying phenomenon', a reliability issue related to music ranking in Korea. Specifically, it is 73 weeks starting from December 31, 2017 to January 06, 2018 as the first week, and from May 19, 2019 to May 25, 2019. And the analysis targets were limited to digital music released in Korea. In particular, digital music was collected based on the "Gaon Chart", a well-known music chart in Korea. Unlike private music charts that are being serviced in Korea, Gaon Charts are charts approved by government agencies and have basic reliability. Therefore, it can be considered that it has more public confidence than the ranking information provided by other services. The contents of the collected data are as follows. Data on the period and ranking, the name of the music, the name of the artist, the name of the album, the Gaon index, the production company, and the distribution company were collected for the music that entered the top 100 on the music chart within the collection period. Through data collection, 7,300 music, which were included in the top 100 on the music chart, were identified for a total of 73 weeks. On the other hand, in the case of digital music, since the cases included in the music chart for more than two weeks are frequent, the duplication of music is removed through the pre-processing process. For duplicate music, the number and location of the duplicated music were checked through the duplicate check function, and then deleted to form data for analysis. Through this, a list of 742 unique music for analysis among the 7,300-music data in advance was secured. A total of 742 songs were secured through previous data collection and pre-processing. In addition, a total of 16 patterns were derived through time series cluster analysis on the ranking change. Based on the patterns derived after that, two representative patterns were identified: 'Steady Seller' and 'One-Hit Wonder'. Furthermore, the two patterns were subdivided into five patterns in consideration of the survival period of the music and the music ranking. The important characteristics of each pattern are as follows. First, the artist's superstar effect and bandwagon effect were strong in the one-hit wonder-type pattern. Therefore, when consumers choose a digital music, they are strongly influenced by the superstar effect and the bandwagon effect. Second, through the Steady Seller pattern, we confirmed the music that have been chosen by consumers for a very long time. In addition, we checked the patterns of the most selected music through consumer needs. Contrary to popular belief, the steady seller: mid-term pattern, not the one-hit wonder pattern, received the most choices from consumers. Particularly noteworthy is that the 'Climbing the Chart' phenomenon, which is contrary to the existing pattern, was confirmed through the steady-seller pattern. This study focuses on the change in the ranking of music over time, a field that has been relatively alienated centering on digital music. In addition, a new approach to music research was attempted by subdividing the pattern of ranking change rather than predicting the success and ranking of music.

    Analysis of Football Fans' Uniform Consumption: Before and After Son Heung-Min's Transfer to Tottenham Hotspur FC (국내 프로축구 팬들의 유니폼 소비 분석: 손흥민의 토트넘 홋스퍼 FC 이적 전후 비교)

    • Choi, Yeong-Hyeon;Lee, Kyu-Hye
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.26 no.3
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      • pp.91-108
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      • 2020
    • Korea's famous soccer players are steadily performing well in international leagues, which led to higher interests of Korean fans in the international leagues. Reflecting the growing social phenomenon of rising interests on international leagues by Korean fans, the study examined the overall consumer perception in the consumption of uniform by domestic soccer fans and compared the changes in perception following the transfers of the players. Among others, the paper examined the consumer perception and purchase factors of soccer fans shown in social media, focusing on periods before and after the recruitment of Heung-Min Son to English Premier League's Tottenham Football Club. To this end, the EPL uniform is the collection keyword the paper utilized and collected consumer postings from domestic website and social media via Python 3.7, and analyzed them using Ucinet 6, NodeXL 1.0.1, and SPSS 25.0 programs. The results of this study can be summarized as follows. First, the uniform of the club that consistently topped the league, has been gaining attention as a popular uniform, and the players' performance, and the players' position have been identified as key factors in the purchase and search of professional football uniforms. In the case of the club, the actual ranking and whether the league won are shown to be important factors in the purchase and search of professional soccer uniforms. The club's emblem and the sponsor logo that will be attached to the uniform are also factors of interest to consumers. In addition, in the decision making process of purchase of a uniform by professional soccer fan, uniform's form, marking, authenticity, and sponsors are found to be more important than price, design, size, and logo. The official online store has emerged as a major purchasing channel, followed by gifts for friends or requests from acquaintances when someone travels to the United Kingdom. Second, a classification of key control categories through the convergence of iteration correlation analysis and Clauset-Newman-Moore clustering algorithm shows differences in the classification of individual groups, but groups that include the EPL's club and player keywords are identified as the key topics in relation to professional football uniforms. Third, between 2002 and 2006, the central theme for professional football uniforms was World Cup and English Premier League, but from 2012 to 2015, the focus has shifted to more interest of domestic and international players in the English Premier League. The subject has changed to the uniform itself from this time on. In this context, the paper can confirm that the major issues regarding the uniforms of professional soccer players have changed since Ji-Sung Park's transfer to Manchester United, and Sung-Yong Ki, Chung-Yong Lee, and Heung-Min Son's good performances in these leagues. The paper also identified that the uniforms of the clubs to which the players have transferred to are of interest. Fourth, both male and female consumers are showing increasing interest in Son's league, the English Premier League, which Tottenham FC belongs to. In particular, the increasing interest in Son has shown a tendency to increase interest in football uniforms for female consumers. This study presents a variety of researches on sports consumption and has value as a consumer study by identifying unique consumption patterns. It is meaningful in that the accuracy of the interpretation has been enhanced by using a cluster analysis via convergence of iteration correlation analysis and Clauset-Newman-Moore clustering algorithm to identify the main topics. Based on the results of this study, the clubs will be able to maximize its profits and maintain good relationships with fans by identifying key drivers of consumer awareness and purchasing for professional soccer fans and establishing an effective marketing strategy.

    The Effects of Pergola Wisteria floribunda's LAI on Thermal Environment (그늘시렁 Wisteria floribunda의 엽면적지수가 온열환경에 미치는 영향)

    • Ryu, Nam-Hyong;Lee, Chun-Seok
      • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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      • v.45 no.6
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      • pp.115-125
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      • 2017
    • This study was to investigate the user's thermal environments under the pergola($L\;7,200{\times}W\;4,200{\times}H\;2,700mn$) covered with Wisteria floribunda(Willd.) DC. according to the variation of leaf area index(LAI). We carried out detailed measurements with two human-biometeorological stations on a popular square Jinju, Korea($N35^{\circ}10^{\prime}59.8^{{\prime}{\prime}}$, $E\;128^{\circ}05^{\prime}32.0^{{\prime}{\prime}}$, elevation: 38m). One of the stations stood under a pergola, while the other in the sun. The measurement spots were instrumented with microclimate monitoring stations to continuously measure air temperature and relative humidity, wind speed, shortwave and longwave radiation from the six cardinal directions at the height of 0.6m so as to calculate the Universal Thermal Climate Index(UTCI) from $9^{th}$ April to $27^{th}$ September 2017. The LAI was measured using the LAI-2200C Plant Canopy Analyzer. The analysis results of 18 day's 1 minute term human-biometeorological data absorbed by a man in sitting position from 10am to 4pm showed the following. During the whole observation period, daily average air temperatures under the pergola were respectively $0.7{\sim}2.3^{\circ}C$ lower compared with those in the sun, daily average wind speed and relative humidity under the pergola were respectively 0.17~0.38m/s and 0.4~3.1% higher compared with those in the sun. There was significant relationship in LAI, Julian day number and were expressed in the equation $y=-0.0004x^2+0.1719x-11.765(R^2=0.9897)$. The average $T_{mrt}$ under the pergola were $11.9{\sim}25.4^{\circ}C$ lower and maximum ${\Delta}T_{mrt}$ under the pergola were $24.1{\sim}30.2^{\circ}C$ when compared with those in the sun. There was significant relationship in LAI, reduction ratio(%) of daily average $T_{mrt}$ compared with those in the sun and was expressed in the equation $y=0.0678{\ln}(x)+0.3036(R^2=0.9454)$. The average UTCI under the pergola were $4.1{\sim}8.3^{\circ}C$ lower and maximum ${\Delta}UTCI$ under the pergola were $7.8{\sim}10.2^{\circ}C$ when compared with those in the sun. There was significant relationship in LAI, reduction ratio(%) of daily average UTCI compared with those in the sun and were expressed in the equation $y=0.0322{\ln}(x)+0.1538(R^2=0.8946)$. The shading by the pergola covered with vines was very effective for reducing daytime UTCI absorbed by a man in sitting position at summer largely through a reduction in mean radiant temperature from sun protection, lowering thermal stress from very strong(UTCI >$38^{\circ}C$) and strong(UTCI >$32^{\circ}C$) down to strong(UTCI >$32^{\circ}C$) and moderate(UTCI >$26^{\circ}C$). Therefore the pergola covered with vines used for shading outdoor spaces is essential to mitigate heat stress and can create better human thermal comfort especially in cities during summer. But the thermal environments under the pergola covered with vines during the heat wave supposed to user "very strong heat stress(UTCI>$38^{\circ}C$)". Therefore users must restrain themselves from outdoor activities during the heat waves.

    Ensemble Learning with Support Vector Machines for Bond Rating (회사채 신용등급 예측을 위한 SVM 앙상블학습)

    • Kim, Myoung-Jong
      • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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      • v.18 no.2
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      • pp.29-45
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      • 2012
    • Bond rating is regarded as an important event for measuring financial risk of companies and for determining the investment returns of investors. As a result, it has been a popular research topic for researchers to predict companies' credit ratings by applying statistical and machine learning techniques. The statistical techniques, including multiple regression, multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), logistic models (LOGIT), and probit analysis, have been traditionally used in bond rating. However, one major drawback is that it should be based on strict assumptions. Such strict assumptions include linearity, normality, independence among predictor variables and pre-existing functional forms relating the criterion variablesand the predictor variables. Those strict assumptions of traditional statistics have limited their application to the real world. Machine learning techniques also used in bond rating prediction models include decision trees (DT), neural networks (NN), and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Especially, SVM is recognized as a new and promising classification and regression analysis method. SVM learns a separating hyperplane that can maximize the margin between two categories. SVM is simple enough to be analyzed mathematical, and leads to high performance in practical applications. SVM implements the structuralrisk minimization principle and searches to minimize an upper bound of the generalization error. In addition, the solution of SVM may be a global optimum and thus, overfitting is unlikely to occur with SVM. In addition, SVM does not require too many data sample for training since it builds prediction models by only using some representative sample near the boundaries called support vectors. A number of experimental researches have indicated that SVM has been successfully applied in a variety of pattern recognition fields. However, there are three major drawbacks that can be potential causes for degrading SVM's performance. First, SVM is originally proposed for solving binary-class classification problems. Methods for combining SVMs for multi-class classification such as One-Against-One, One-Against-All have been proposed, but they do not improve the performance in multi-class classification problem as much as SVM for binary-class classification. Second, approximation algorithms (e.g. decomposition methods, sequential minimal optimization algorithm) could be used for effective multi-class computation to reduce computation time, but it could deteriorate classification performance. Third, the difficulty in multi-class prediction problems is in data imbalance problem that can occur when the number of instances in one class greatly outnumbers the number of instances in the other class. Such data sets often cause a default classifier to be built due to skewed boundary and thus the reduction in the classification accuracy of such a classifier. SVM ensemble learning is one of machine learning methods to cope with the above drawbacks. Ensemble learning is a method for improving the performance of classification and prediction algorithms. AdaBoost is one of the widely used ensemble learning techniques. It constructs a composite classifier by sequentially training classifiers while increasing weight on the misclassified observations through iterations. The observations that are incorrectly predicted by previous classifiers are chosen more often than examples that are correctly predicted. Thus Boosting attempts to produce new classifiers that are better able to predict examples for which the current ensemble's performance is poor. In this way, it can reinforce the training of the misclassified observations of the minority class. This paper proposes a multiclass Geometric Mean-based Boosting (MGM-Boost) to resolve multiclass prediction problem. Since MGM-Boost introduces the notion of geometric mean into AdaBoost, it can perform learning process considering the geometric mean-based accuracy and errors of multiclass. This study applies MGM-Boost to the real-world bond rating case for Korean companies to examine the feasibility of MGM-Boost. 10-fold cross validations for threetimes with different random seeds are performed in order to ensure that the comparison among three different classifiers does not happen by chance. For each of 10-fold cross validation, the entire data set is first partitioned into tenequal-sized sets, and then each set is in turn used as the test set while the classifier trains on the other nine sets. That is, cross-validated folds have been tested independently of each algorithm. Through these steps, we have obtained the results for classifiers on each of the 30 experiments. In the comparison of arithmetic mean-based prediction accuracy between individual classifiers, MGM-Boost (52.95%) shows higher prediction accuracy than both AdaBoost (51.69%) and SVM (49.47%). MGM-Boost (28.12%) also shows the higher prediction accuracy than AdaBoost (24.65%) and SVM (15.42%)in terms of geometric mean-based prediction accuracy. T-test is used to examine whether the performance of each classifiers for 30 folds is significantly different. The results indicate that performance of MGM-Boost is significantly different from AdaBoost and SVM classifiers at 1% level. These results mean that MGM-Boost can provide robust and stable solutions to multi-classproblems such as bond rating.


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