• Title/Summary/Keyword: period error

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Long-term forecasting reference evapotranspiration using statistically predicted temperature information (통계적 기온예측정보를 활용한 기준증발산량 장기예측)

  • Kim, Chul-Gyum;Lee, Jeongwoo;Lee, Jeong Eun;Kim, Hyeonjun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.12
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    • pp.1243-1254
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    • 2021
  • For water resources operation or agricultural water management, it is important to accurately predict evapotranspiration for a long-term future over a seasonal or monthly basis. In this study, reference evapotranspiration forecast (up to 12 months in advance) was performed using statistically predicted monthly temperatures and temperature-based Hamon method for the Han River basin. First, the daily maximum and minimum temperature data for 15 meterological stations in the basin were derived by spatial-temporal downscaling the monthly temperature forecasts. The results of goodness-of-fit test for the downscaled temperature data at each site showed that the percent bias (PBIAS) ranged from 1.3 to 6.9%, the ratio of the root mean square error to the standard deviation of the observations (RSR) ranged from 0.22 to 0.27, the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.93 to 0.95, and the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) ranged from 0.97 to 0.98 for the monthly average daily maximum temperature. And for the monthly average daily minimum temperature, PBIAS was 7.8 to 44.7%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.25, NSE was 0.94 to 0.96, and r was 0.98 to 0.99. The difference by site was not large, and the downscaled results were similar to the observations. In the results of comparing the forecasted reference evapotranspiration calculated using the downscaled data with the observed values for the entire region, PBIAS was 2.2 to 5.4%, RSR was 0.21 to 0.28, NSE was 0.92 to 0.96, and r was 0.96 to 0.98, indicating a very high fit. Due to the characteristics of the statistical models and uncertainty in the downscaling process, the predicted reference evapotranspiration may slightly deviate from the observed value in some periods when temperatures completely different from the past are observed. However, considering that it is a forecast result for the future period, it will be sufficiently useful as information for the evaluation or operation of water resources in the future.

The Method of the Cultivation of Taste and the Possibility of the Edification of Personality & the Cultural Development Through It: The Approach to Analyzing the Examples of the Judgment of Negative Taste in Kant's Critique of Judgment(§§32-33) (취미 도야의 방식과 이를 통한 인성의 교화 및 문화발전의 가능성: 칸트의 『판단력비판』 §§32-33 부정적 취미판단의사례 분석을 중심으로)

  • Yang, Hee-Jin
    • Journal of Korean Philosophical Society
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    • no.117
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    • pp.139-167
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    • 2017
  • This essay attempts to reveal how taste spontaneously cultivates and why it is necessary for cultivating taste to edify our personality and to develop culture. It is a key of the solution of the problems that taste always reflects its judgment through pleasure. Because the grounds of the universal validity of the judgment of taste are found, whenever taste tests the validity of its own judgment, the so-called 'delight of discovery' makes taste cultivate itself. For having the moral personality, we need to practice spontaneously the morality of our own behaviour and for judging whether an artwork to represent the period is succeeded or not, we need to have a high insight to select the cultural heritage. But the autonomous thinking can delightfully be made a habit, judging the beauty of artworks. In the main body of this essay, it is determined from the three examples of the negative judgment of taste which Kant suggested in deduction. According to Kant, the negative judgment of taste means that the beautiful work is displeased, but what it asserts is that taste is cultivated. I formalize the methods of reflection of taste revealed in three negative judgments of taste into'resisting', 'indicating of error', 'self-retracting'.(Chapter 2) And from this, I emphasize the necessity to cultivate taste in the way that these methods of the cultivation of taste can affect building our personality by stimulating our reason to have interest in moral(Chapter 3) and in the way that taste directly judges the product of cultural succession.(Chapter 4) In the end of last chapter, I examine further essentially the method of the reflection of taste, to inquire into how to enable it.(Chapter 5) Especially, I try to illuminate its grounds through Schiller's concept of the "impulse of amusement(Spieltrib)", because his explanation helps us to understand the dynamics of taste's delight of discovery. Although the abilities of mind conflict with each other, taste has the characters that it reflects to encourage them for each other and that it is vitalized by its own activity. We, as it were, can pleasantly handle two tasks, because taste makes the impulse of amusement from conflictive impulses in mind. In conclusion, I state that we have to experience directly the impulse of amusement like creative artist, because it is maximized from creation.

A Review of Salvage Archaeology in Korea and a Joint Research and Excavation Plan for North Korean Cultural Heritage (남북 문화유산 조사 현황과 공동조사를 위한 제언)

  • Choi, Jongtaik;Seong, Chuntaek
    • Korean Journal of Heritage: History & Science
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    • v.52 no.2
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    • pp.20-37
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    • 2019
  • Three Inter-Korea summits and a North Korea-USA summit that were previously unexpected provide a basis for an optimistic outlook for the future development of Korean archaeology. While Korean archaeology has witnessed a great advance since the mid-20th century, it also exhibits significant weaknesses in explaining cultural changes in prehistory and the early historical period in the Korean Peninsula due to the paucity of information on archaeological evidence of North Korea. Recent development of favorable conditions for research and excavations of North Korean cultural heritage could be a valuable opportunity for Korean archaeology to overcome the current adversity. Especially, given the expected large-scale SOC industrial project in North Korea, we need to prepare for the systematic research and excavation of archaeological materials. The present essay attempts to provide a suggestion for the joint archaeological expeditions to excavate and manage cultural resources in North Korea based on a critical review of previous salvage excavations in South Korea, such as those conducted before the construction of the Korean rapid transit railway system (KTX). We suggest that professional archaeologists should be included in the project and oversee the planning and design of road and railway constructions and other SOC projects in order to minimize the cost of trial and error processes that were well exemplified by the KTX salvage excavations. The Korean Archaeological Society and North Korean Archaeological Society may organize a common association that will supervise joint archaeological expeditions. Importantly, The Korean Archaeological Society and other related institutions should prepare to build an organization that conducts impending archaeological excavation in North Korea. While we likely face challenges and difficulties during the various stages of archaeological research and excavations in North Korea, only through thorough and systematic preparation can we avoid the destruction of valuable cultural heritage and find an opportunity for the further development of Korean archaeology.

Development of a Retrieval Algorithm for Adjustment of Satellite-viewed Cloudiness (위성관측운량 보정을 위한 알고리즘의 개발)

  • Son, Jiyoung;Lee, Yoon-Kyoung;Choi, Yong-Sang;Ok, Jung;Kim, Hye-Sil
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.415-431
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    • 2019
  • The satellite-viewed cloudiness, a ratio of cloudy pixels to total pixels ($C_{sat,\;prev}$), inevitably differs from the "ground-viewed" cloudiness ($C_{grd}$) due to different viewpoints. Here we develop an algorithm to retrieve the satellite-viewed, but adjusted cloudiness to $C_{grd} (C_{sat,\;adj})$. The key process of the algorithm is to convert the cloudiness projected on the plane surface into the cloudiness on the celestial hemisphere from the observer. For this conversion, the supplementary satellite retrievals such as cloud detection and cloud top pressure are used as they provide locations of cloudy pixels and cloud base height information, respectively. The algorithm is tested for Himawari-8 level 1B data. The $C_{sat,\;adj}$ and $C_{sat,\;prev}$ are retrieved and validated with $C_{grd}$ of SYNOP station over Korea (22 stations) and China (724 stations) during only daytime for the first seven days of every month from July 2016 to June 2017. As results, the mean error of $C_{sat,\;adj}$ (0.61) is less that than that of $C_{sat,\;prev}$ (1.01). The percent of detection for 'Cloudy' scenario of $C_{sat,\;adj}$ (73%) is higher than that of $C_{sat,\;prev}$ (60%) The percent of correction, the accuracy, of $C_{sat,\;adj}$ is 61%, while that of $C_{sat,\;prev}$ is 55% for all seasons. For the December-January-February period when cloudy pixels are readily overestimated, the proportion of correction of $C_{sat,\;adj$ is 60%, while that of $C_{sat,\;prev}$ is 56%. Therefore, we conclude that the present algorithm can effectively get the satellite cloudiness near to the ground-viewed cloudiness.

Very short-term rainfall prediction based on radar image learning using deep neural network (심층신경망을 이용한 레이더 영상 학습 기반 초단시간 강우예측)

  • Yoon, Seongsim;Park, Heeseong;Shin, Hongjoon
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.12
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    • pp.1159-1172
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    • 2020
  • This study applied deep convolution neural network based on U-Net and SegNet using long period weather radar data to very short-term rainfall prediction. And the results were compared and evaluated with the translation model. For training and validation of deep neural network, Mt. Gwanak and Mt. Gwangdeoksan radar data were collected from 2010 to 2016 and converted to a gray-scale image file in an HDF5 format with a 1km spatial resolution. The deep neural network model was trained to predict precipitation after 10 minutes by using the four consecutive radar image data, and the recursive method of repeating forecasts was applied to carry out lead time 60 minutes with the pretrained deep neural network model. To evaluate the performance of deep neural network prediction model, 24 rain cases in 2017 were forecast for rainfall up to 60 minutes in advance. As a result of evaluating the predicted performance by calculating the mean absolute error (MAE) and critical success index (CSI) at the threshold of 0.1, 1, and 5 mm/hr, the deep neural network model showed better performance in the case of rainfall threshold of 0.1, 1 mm/hr in terms of MAE, and showed better performance than the translation model for lead time 50 minutes in terms of CSI. In particular, although the deep neural network prediction model performed generally better than the translation model for weak rainfall of 5 mm/hr or less, the deep neural network prediction model had limitations in predicting distinct precipitation characteristics of high intensity as a result of the evaluation of threshold of 5 mm/hr. The longer lead time, the spatial smoothness increase with lead time thereby reducing the accuracy of rainfall prediction The translation model turned out to be superior in predicting the exceedance of higher intensity thresholds (> 5 mm/hr) because it preserves distinct precipitation characteristics, but the rainfall position tends to shift incorrectly. This study are expected to be helpful for the improvement of radar rainfall prediction model using deep neural networks in the future. In addition, the massive weather radar data established in this study will be provided through open repositories for future use in subsequent studies.

Estimation of the Lodging Area in Rice Using Deep Learning (딥러닝을 이용한 벼 도복 면적 추정)

  • Ban, Ho-Young;Baek, Jae-Kyeong;Sang, Wan-Gyu;Kim, Jun-Hwan;Seo, Myung-Chul
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.66 no.2
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    • pp.105-111
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    • 2021
  • Rice lodging is an annual occurrence caused by typhoons accompanied by strong winds and strong rainfall, resulting in damage relating to pre-harvest sprouting during the ripening period. Thus, rapid estimations of the area of lodged rice are necessary to enable timely responses to damage. To this end, we obtained images related to rice lodging using a drone in Gimje, Buan, and Gunsan, which were converted to 128 × 128 pixels images. A convolutional neural network (CNN) model, a deep learning model based on these images, was used to predict rice lodging, which was classified into two types (lodging and non-lodging), and the images were divided in a 8:2 ratio into a training set and a validation set. The CNN model was layered and trained using three optimizers (Adam, Rmsprop, and SGD). The area of rice lodging was evaluated for the three fields using the obtained data, with the exception of the training set and validation set. The images were combined to give composites images of the entire fields using Metashape, and these images were divided into 128 × 128 pixels. Lodging in the divided images was predicted using the trained CNN model, and the extent of lodging was calculated by multiplying the ratio of the total number of field images by the number of lodging images by the area of the entire field. The results for the training and validation sets showed that accuracy increased with a progression in learning and eventually reached a level greater than 0.919. The results obtained for each of the three fields showed high accuracy with respect to all optimizers, among which, Adam showed the highest accuracy (normalized root mean square error: 2.73%). On the basis of the findings of this study, it is anticipated that the area of lodged rice can be rapidly predicted using deep learning.

Geomagnetic Paleosecular Variation in the Korean Peninsula during the First Six Centuries (기원후 600년간 한반도 지구 자기장 고영년변화)

  • Park, Jong kyu;Park, Yong-Hee
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.32 no.4
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    • pp.611-625
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    • 2022
  • One of the applications of geomagnetic paleo-secular variation (PSV) is the age dating of archeological remains (i.e., the archeomagnetic dating technique). This application requires the local model of PSV that reflects non-dipole fields with regional differences. Until now, the tentative Korean paleosecular variation (t-KPSV) calculated based on JPSV (SW Japanese PSV) has been applied as a reference curve for individual archeomagnetic directions in Korea. However, it is less reliable due to regional differences in the non-dipole magnetic field. Here, we present PSV curves for AD 1 to 600, corresponding to the Korean Three Kingdoms (including the Proto Three Kingdoms) Period, using the results of archeomagnetic studies in the Korean Peninsula and published research data. Then we compare our PSV with the global geomagnetic prediction model and t-KPSV. A total of 49 reliable archeomagnetic directional data from 16 regions were compiled for our PSV. In detail, each data showed statistical consistency (N > 6, 𝛼95 < 7.8°, and k > 57.8) and had radiocarbon or archeological ages in the range of AD 1 to 600 years with less than ±200 years error range. The compiled PSV for the initial six centuries (KPSV0.6k) showed declination and inclination in the range of 341.7° to 20.1° and 43.5° to 60.3°, respectively. Compared to the t-KPSV, our curve revealed different variation patterns both in declination and inclination. On the other hand, KPSV0.6k and global geomagnetic prediction models (ARCH3K.1, CALS3K.4, and SED3K.1) revealed consistent variation trends during the first six centennials. In particular, the ARCH3K.1 showed the best fitting with our KPSV0.6k. These results indicate that contribution of the non-dipole field to Korea and Japan is quite different, despite their geographical proximity. Moreover, the compilation of archeomagnetic data from the Korea territory is essential to build a reliable PSV curve for an age dating tool. Lastly, we double-check the reliability of our KPSV0.6k by showing a good fitting of newly acquired age-controlled archeomagnetic data on our curve.

Re-examination of the Latest Dates of the Brick Chamber Tombs in the Western Region of North Korea: A Focus on Dated Inscribed Bricks (서북한 지역 전축분(塼築墳) 연대의 하한 재검토 -기년명전(紀年銘塼)을 중심으로)

  • Jang Byungjin
    • Bangmulgwan gwa yeongu (The National Museum of Korea Journal)
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    • v.1
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    • pp.96-119
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    • 2024
  • Some inscribed bricks excavated from the western region of North Korea have been found bearing an era name used after 314 when the Nangnang and Daebang Commanderies had been completely ousted from the region. Others have been found with an era name used in the early fifth century. This indicates that the tradition of constructing brick chamber tombs was sustained for a century after the disappearance of the two commanderies. However, brick chamber tombs were never adopted as a burial system for the ruling class of the Goguryeo Kingdom. The Tomb of Jang Mui built in 348 and the Tomb of Dongni built in 353 both departed from the typical brick chamber tomb style of the region, and elements associated with stone chamber tombs were added to them. The Tomb of Dongsu (Anak Tomb No. 3), which is similar to the other two tombs in that its occupant is of Chinese descent, was constructed in 357 not as a brick chamber tomb, but as an earthen mound tomb with a stone chamber. Still, the continuation of brick chamber tomb tradition in the next half century has been somewhat puzzling. Although dated inscribed bricks have served as important evidence for understanding the continuation of the brick chamber tomb tradition, there has been a problem of continually repeating previous studies. It has also been pointed out that there was an error in the interpretation of era names in some of the dated inscribed bricks that had been believed to have been produced in or after 357. For example, "second year of Taean" (Taian in Chinese), which had been understood to correspond to 386 (during the Former Qin Dynasty), in fact refers to 303 (during the reign of Emperor Hui of the Western Jin Dynasty). In the case of "first year of Geonsi" (Jianshi in Chinese), which had been believed to indicate 407 (during the Later Yan Dynasty), it actually refers to 301. "Geonsi" is the era name used during the period when Sima Yun ousted Emperor Hui of the Western Jin Dynasty and briefly occupied imperial throne. Outside these two cases, the remaining dated inscribed bricks thought to have been produced in or after 357 are those dated to the "third year of Wonheung" (Yuanxing in Chinese). However, a reexamination of these bricks reveals that what is really "Yeongheung" (Yongxing in Chinese) has been misread as "Wonheung." The third year of Yeongheung corresponds to either 306 during the Western Jin Dynasty or 352 during the Later Zhao Dynasty, but it is highly probable that it refers to 306. This means that there is no conclusive evidence to support the hypothesis that brick chamber tombs were built in the area until the late fourth century and even into the early fifth. Accordingly, the Tombs of Jang Mui and Dongni should be viewed as the latest known brick chamber tombs to be constructed in the western region of North Korea. Moreover, brick chamber tombs appear to have been no longer built in the area around the time when the Tomb of Dongsu was constructed. These speculations accord with the historical circumstances of the time.

On the vibration influence to the running power plant facilities when the foundation excavated of the cautious blasting works. (노천굴착에서 발파진동의 크기를 감량 시키기 위한 정밀파실험식)

  • Huh Ginn
    • Explosives and Blasting
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.3-13
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    • 1991
  • The cautious blasting works had been used with emulsion explosion electric M/S delay caps. Drill depth was from 3m to 6m with Crawler Drill ${\phi}70mm$ on the calcalious sand stone (soft -modelate -semi hard Rock). The total numbers of test blast were 88. Scale distance were induced 15.52-60.32. It was applied to propagation Law in blasting vibration as follows. Propagtion Law in Blasting Vibration $V=K(\frac{D}{W^b})^n$ were V : Peak partical velocity(cm/sec) D : Distance between explosion and recording sites(m) W : Maximum charge per delay-period of eight milliseconds or more (kg) K : Ground transmission constant, empirically determind on the Rocks, Explosive and drilling pattern ets. b : Charge exponents n : Reduced exponents where the quantity $\frac{D}{W^b}$ is known as the scale distance. Above equation is worked by the U.S Bureau of Mines to determine peak particle velocity. The propagation Law can be catagorized in three groups. Cubic root Scaling charge per delay Square root Scaling of charge per delay Site-specific Scaling of charge Per delay Plots of peak particle velocity versus distoance were made on log-log coordinates. The data are grouped by test and P.P.V. The linear grouping of the data permits their representation by an equation of the form ; $V=K(\frac{D}{W^{\frac{1}{3}})^{-n}$ The value of K(41 or 124) and n(1.41 or 1.66) were determined for each set of data by the method of least squores. Statistical tests showed that a common slope, n, could be used for all data of a given components. Charge and reduction exponents carried out by multiple regressional analysis. It's divided into under loom over loom distance because the frequency is verified by the distance from blast site. Empirical equation of cautious blasting vibration is as follows. Over 30m ------- under l00m ${\cdots\cdots\cdots}{\;}41(D/sqrt[2]{W})^{-1.41}{\;}{\cdots\cdots\cdots\cdots\cdots}{\;}A$ Over 100m ${\cdots\cdots\cdots\cdots\cdots}{\;}121(D/sqrt[3]{W})^{-1.66}{\;}{\cdots\cdots\cdots\cdots\cdots}{\;}B$ where ; V is peak particle velocity In cm / sec D is distance in m and W, maximLlm charge weight per day in kg K value on the above equation has to be more specified for further understaring about the effect of explosives, Rock strength. And Drilling pattern on the vibration levels, it is necessary to carry out more tests.

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Evaluation of the Positional Uncertainty of a Liver Tumor using 4-Dimensional Computed Tomography and Gated Orthogonal Kilovolt Setup Images (사차원전산화단층촬영과 호흡연동 직각 Kilovolt 준비 영상을 이용한 간 종양의 움직임 분석)

  • Ju, Sang-Gyu;Hong, Chae-Seon;Park, Hee-Chul;Ahn, Jong-Ho;Shin, Eun-Hyuk;Shin, Jung-Suk;Kim, Jin-Sung;Han, Young-Yih;Lim, Do-Hoon;Choi, Doo-Ho
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.155-165
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    • 2010
  • Purpose: In order to evaluate the positional uncertainty of internal organs during radiation therapy for treatment of liver cancer, we measured differences in inter- and intra-fractional variation of the tumor position and tidal amplitude using 4-dimentional computed radiograph (DCT) images and gated orthogonal setup kilovolt (KV) images taken on every treatment using the on board imaging (OBI) and real time position management (RPM) system. Materials and Methods: Twenty consecutive patients who underwent 3-dimensional (3D) conformal radiation therapy for treatment of liver cancer participated in this study. All patients received a 4DCT simulation with an RT16 scanner and an RPM system. Lipiodol, which was updated near the target volume after transarterial chemoembolization or diaphragm was chosen as a surrogate for the evaluation of the position difference of internal organs. Two reference orthogonal (anterior and lateral) digital reconstructed radiograph (DRR) images were generated using CT image sets of 0% and 50% into the respiratory phases. The maximum tidal amplitude of the surrogate was measured from 3D conformal treatment planning. After setting the patient up with laser markings on the skin, orthogonal gated setup images at 50% into the respiratory phase were acquired at each treatment session with OBI and registered on reference DRR images by setting each beam center. Online inter-fractional variation was determined with the surrogate. After adjusting the patient setup error, orthogonal setup images at 0% and 50% into the respiratory phases were obtained and tidal amplitude of the surrogate was measured. Measured tidal amplitude was compared with data from 4DCT. For evaluation of intra-fractional variation, an orthogonal gated setup image at 50% into the respiratory phase was promptly acquired after treatment and compared with the same image taken just before treatment. In addition, a statistical analysis for the quantitative evaluation was performed. Results: Medians of inter-fractional variation for twenty patients were 0.00 cm (range, -0.50 to 0.90 cm), 0.00 cm (range, -2.40 to 1.60 cm), and 0.00 cm (range, -1.10 to 0.50 cm) in the X (transaxial), Y (superior-inferior), and Z (anterior-posterior) directions, respectively. Significant inter-fractional variations over 0.5 cm were observed in four patients. Min addition, the median tidal amplitude differences between 4DCTs and the gated orthogonal setup images were -0.05 cm (range, -0.83 to 0.60 cm), -0.15 cm (range, -2.58 to 1.18 cm), and -0.02 cm (range, -1.37 to 0.59 cm) in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. Large differences of over 1 cm were detected in 3 patients in the Y direction, while differences of more than 0.5 but less than 1 cm were observed in 5 patients in Y and Z directions. Median intra-fractional variation was 0.00 cm (range, -0.30 to 0.40 cm), -0.03 cm (range, -1.14 to 0.50 cm), 0.05 cm (range, -0.30 to 0.50 cm) in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. Significant intra-fractional variation of over 1 cm was observed in 2 patients in Y direction. Conclusion: Gated setup images provided a clear image quality for the detection of organ motion without a motion artifact. Significant intra- and inter-fractional variation and tidal amplitude differences between 4DCT and gated setup images were detected in some patients during the radiation treatment period, and therefore, should be considered when setting up the target margin. Monitoring of positional uncertainty and its adaptive feedback system can enhance the accuracy of treatments.