• 유통과학연구
• /
• 제10권11호
• /
• pp.31-37
• /
• 2012

Purpose - This study was conducted under the assumption that brand A, a store of company Z of Pangyo, with a new store at Pangyo station is targeting the Bundang-gu area of the newly developed city of Seongnam. Research design, data, methodology - As a result of demand forecasting using geometric series models, an extrapolation of past trends provided the coefficient estimates, without utilizing regression analysis on a constant increase in children's wear, for which the population size and estimated parameter were required. Results - Demand forecasting on the basis of past trends indicates the likelihood that sales of discount stores in the Bundang area, where brand A currently has a presence, would fetch a higher estimated value than that of the average discount store in the country during 2015. If past trends persist, future sales of operational stores are likely to increase. Conclusions - In evaluating location using the simple weighting model, Seohyun Lotte Mart obtained a high rating amongst new stores in Pangyo, on the basis of accessibility, demand class, and existing stores. Therefore, when opening a new counter at a relevant store, a positive effect can be predicted.

• Asia Marketing Journal
• /
• 제22권2호
• /
• pp.1-18
• /
• 2020

We estimate a choice-based aggregate demand model accounting for consumers' consideration sets, and study its implications on market structure. In contrast to past research, we model and estimate consumer demand using aggregate-level consumer browsing data in addition to aggregate-level choice data. The use of consumer browsing data allows us to study consumer demand in a realistic setting in which consumers choose from a subset of products. We calibrate the proposed model on both data sets, avoid biases in parameter estimates, and compute the price elasticity measures. As an empirical application, we estimate consumer demand in the camcorder category and study its implications on market structure. The proposed model predicts a limited consumer price response and offers a more discriminating competitive landscape from the one assuming universal consideration set.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2019년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.164-175
• /
• 2019

The Tor Tong Daeng Irrigation Project with the irrigation area of 61,400 hectares is located in the Ping Basin of the Upper Central Plain of Thailand where farmers depended on both surface water and groundwater. In the drought year, water storage in the Bhumipol Dam is inadequate to allocate water for agriculture, and caused water deficit in many irrigation projects. Farmers need to find extra sources of water such as water from farm pond or groundwater as a supplement. The operation of Bhumipol Dam and irrigation demand estimation are vital for irrigation water allocation to help solve water shortage issue in the irrigation project. The study aims to determine the smart dam operation system to mitigate water shortage in this irrigation project via introduction of machine learning to improve dam operation and irrigation demand estimation via soil moisture estimation from satellite images. Via ANN technique application, the inflows to the dam are generated from the upstream rain gauge stations using past 10 years daily rainfall data. The input vectors for ANN model are identified base on regression and principal component analysis. The structure of ANN (length of training data, the type of activation functions, the number of hidden nodes and training methods) is determined from the statistics performance between measurements and ANN outputs. On the other hands, the irrigation demand will be estimated by using satellite images, LANDSAT. The Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Temperature Vegetation Dryness Index (TVDI) values are estimated from the plant growth stage and soil moisture. The values are calibrated and verified with the field plant growth stages and soil moisture data in the year 2017-2018. The irrigation demand in the irrigation project is then estimated from the plant growth stage and soil moisture in the area. With the estimated dam inflow and irrigation demand, the dam operation will manage the water release in the better manner compared with the past operational data. The results show how smart system concept was applied and improve dam operation by using inflow estimation from ANN technique combining with irrigation demand estimation from satellite images when compared with the past operation data which is an initial step to develop the smart dam operation system in Thailand.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국수자원학회 2021년도 학술발표회
• /
• pp.144-144
• /
• 2021

The rapid urbanization in many Asian countries has taken millions of people from the rural countryside to concentrated megacities, which eventually putting pressure on the existing water resources. The over-growing population and increasing living standard of people in the urban region of developed as well as developing countries such as Korea, China, Japan and India have witnessed a drastic change in terms of domestic water demand for the past few decades. In this study, we used the concept of potential surface water availability in the form of surface runoff for future vulnerability assessment. We focused on 42 megacities having population more than 5 million as per the United Nations (UN) census data 2020. The study shows that 30 out of 42 cities having more than 180L/p/d demand for domestic use based on various references. We have predicted the domestic water demand for all the cities on the basis of current per capita demand up to 2035 using UN projected population data. We found that the projected water demand in megacities such as Seoul, Busan, Shanghai, Ghuanzou are increasing because of high population as well as GDP growth rate. On the contrary, megacities of Japan considered in our stud shows less water demand in future due to decreasing trend of population. As per the past records provided by the local municipalities/authorities, we projected different scenarios based on the future supply for various megacities such as Chennai, Delhi, Karachi, Mumbai, Shanghai, Wuhan, etc. We found that the supply to demand ratio of these cities would be below 75% for future period and if such trend continues then the inhabitants will face serious water stress conditions. Outcomes of this study would help the local policy makers to adopt sustainable initiatives on urban water governance to avoid the severe water stress conditions in the vulnerable megacities.

• 한국시뮬레이션학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국시뮬레이션학회 2002년도 추계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.101-105
• /
• 2002

In a traditional hierarchical inventory system, direct orders are the only information for inventory management that is exchanged between the firms involved. But due to the rapid development of modern information technology, it becomes possible for the firms to share more information in real time, e.g. demand and inventory status data. And so the term Supply Chain has emerged because it is seen as an important source of competitive advantage. Now it is possible to challenge traditional approaches to inventory management. In the past, one of the de-facto assumptions for inventory management was that the demand pattern follows a specific distribution function. However, it is undesirable to apply this assumption in real situations because the demand information in the supply chain tends to be distorted due to the bullwhip effect in a supply chain. To overcome this weakness, we propose a new solution method using NN (Neural Network). Our method proceeds in three steps. First, we find the patterns of optimal reorder points by analyzing past data. Second. train the NN using these pattern data and finally decide the reorder point. Using simulation experiment, we show that the proposed solution method gives better result than that of traditional research.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국철도학회 1998년도 창립기념 춘계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.203-210
• /
• 1998

Rail transport has grown over the Past decades, and rail networks have highly concentrated in urban area, and it is possible for rail passengers to choose a route anions a number of alternative routes. Analysis of factors influencing the choice of route, are required to estimate the rail travel demand of each route. In this paper, we describes route choice model for the transit assignment and characteristics of the route choice(i.e., by relative travel time and fares), and attempts to estimate travel demand of new rail transit based on the slated preference(SP) survey data of Nanko Porttown, which is located in Osaka, Japan.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제9권1호
• /
• pp.125-141
• /
• 2008

It is very difficult to predict future demand/supply, price for resources with acceptable accuracy using regression analysis. We try to use system dynamics to forecast the demand/supply and price for nickel. Nickel is very expensive mineral resource used for stainless production or other industrial production like battery, alloy making. Recent nickel price trend showed non-linear pattern and we anticipated the system dynamic method will catch this non-linear pattern better than the regression analysis. Our model has been calibrated for the past 6 year quarterly data (2002-2007) and tested for next 5 year quarterly data(2008-2012). The results were acceptable and showed higher accuracy than the results obtained from the regression analysis. And we ran the simulations for scenarios made by possible future changes in demand or supply related variables. This simulations implied some meaningful price change patterns.

• 인터넷정보학회논문지
• /
• 제18권1호
• /
• pp.121-129
• /
• 2017

수리부속 수요예측은 장비가동률 향상과 국방 운영 예산 효율화 제고를 위한 국방 군수 분야의 핵심 과제 중 하나이다. 현재 우리군은 수리부속 소요 데이터를 활용한 시계열 기법으로 과거 데이터 분석을 통해 수리부속 수요예측에 활용하고 있으나 정확도 제고에 지속적인 노력이 요구되고 있는 실정이다. 이에 본 연구에서는 지난 5개년의 수리부속 18,476개 품목의 수요데이터를 수집하고 데이터마이닝 기법을 활용한 수리부속 수요예측 모델을 제안하였다. 제안한 모델에 따른 실험 결과는 기존 시계열 기법에 비해 개선된 수요예측 정확도를 보였다.

• 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국철도학회 1998년도 창립기념 춘계학술대회 논문집
• /
• pp.211-218
• /
• 1998

The demand prediction becomes an essential mean to utilize efficiently finite traffic facilities and to provide the optimized schedules for transportation system. The demand prediction is one of the critical complex management schemes for distibuting resources of transportation service by means of computer system. The construction of a prediction model is based on data granulization, followed by processing the raw input data and evaluating the predicted output values. A large number of economic-social parameters are also to be implemented in conventional prediction models which are only based on a sequence of past data. The proposed prediction models are classified by static and dynamic characteristics and its performances are evaluated utilizing computer simulation.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
• /
• 제23권5호
• /
• pp.9-14
• /
• 2018

For an efficient management of electricity market and power systems, accurate forecasts for electricity demand are essential. Since there are many factors, either known or unknown, determining the realized loads, it is difficult to forecast the demands with the past time series only. In this paper we perform a cluster analysis on electricity demand data collected from Jan. 2000 to Dec. 2017. Our purpose of clustering on electricity demand data is that each cluster is expected to consist of data whose latent variables are same or similar values. Then, if properly clustered, it is possible to develop an accurate forecasting model for each cluster separately. To validate the feasibility of this approach for building better forecasting models, we clustered data with t-SNE. To apply t-SNE to time series data effectively, we adopt the dynamic time warping as a similarity measure. From the result of experiments, we found that several clusters are well observed and each cluster can be interpreted as a mix of well-known factors such as trends, seasonality and holiday effects and other unknown factors. These findings can motivate the approaches which build forecasting models with respect to each cluster independently.