• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권1호
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• pp.37-45
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• 2015

Recent droughts in South Korea have had large economic and environmental impacts across the country. Changes in rainfall and hydrologic patterns due to climate change can potentially increase the occurrence of extreme droughts and affect the future availability of water resources. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate drought vulnerability for water resources planning and management, and identify the appropriate mitigation actions to conduct a drought risk analysis in the context of climate change. The objective of this study is changes in the temporal trends of drought characteristics in South Korea to examine drought impacts under climate change. First, the changes of drought occurrence were analyzed by applying the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for meteorological data on 54 meteorological stations, and were analyzed for the past 30 years (1981-2010), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios (2011-2100). Second, the changes on the temporal trends of drought characteristics were performed using run theory, which was used to compare drought duration, severity, and magnitude to allow for quantitative evaluations under past and future climate conditions. These results show the high influence of climate change on drought phenomenon, and will contribute to water resources management and drought countermeasures to climate change.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.223-231
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• 2015

Although a considerable part of climate change can be explained by temperature change, hydrological change such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff impact more on society. For the ascertain a hydrological change in agriculture sector, this study estimate evapotranspiration of cropland in the Korean peninsula, and then to assess the drought severity in the past 30 years through the estimated potential evapotranspiration and observed precipitation. The potential evapotranspiration is estimated by EPIC model and Penman-Monteith method and the drought severity in cropland of the Korean peninsula is assessed using Normalized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (NPEI) based on the difference in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. In North Korea, the estimated evapotranspiration tends to increase even though a significant change is not found due to the change of climate. Although a time series change in drought severity in the past 30 years is not pronounced, a deviation by year and difference between South and North Korea is certain. One reason of this is difference in precipitation and evapotranspiration change according to the latitude. The result including expansion of facilities for water management in North Korea can be used for agricultural decision making, as well as base data of climate change adaptation.

• 한국농림기상학회지
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• 제22권3호
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• pp.128-134
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• 2020

국립농업과학원은 공동연구를 통해 기상청 소속 94개 종관기상관측소의 일별 기상자료를 기반으로 6가지 기상요소(최고·최저·평균 기온, 강수량, 일사량, 일조시간)에 대한 30m 및 270m 해상도의 격자형 일별 상세 기후 자료를 약 50년(1971-현재) 기간에 대해 생산하였고, 평년 기후값(1981-2010) 및 평년 대비 상세 기후 변화량 정보를 생산하였다. 이러한 일별 자료, 평년 자료 그리고 평년 대비 변화량 자료는 GeoTiff 형식으로 제공되며, 구글 크롬(Google Chrome) 에서 최적화된 https://agecoclim.agmet.kr 사이트에서 다운받을 수 있다. 본 연구 결과물은 현재 주식회사 에피넷과 국립농업과학원에서 공동으로 관리 중이며, 향후 기후·이상기상 변화량 분석 자동화 체계를 추가 보완을 통해 활용성을 제고하고, 기후 정보의 정확성을 향상시킬 예정이다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권3호
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• pp.65-76
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• 2015

Estimating water requirements for upland crops are characterized by standing soil moisture condition during the entire crop growth period. However, scarce rainfall and intermittent dry spells often cause soil moisture depletion resulting in unsaturated condition in the fields. Changes in rainfall patterns due to climate change have significant influence on the increasing the occurrence of extreme soil moisture depletion. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate agricultural drought for upland crop water planning and management in the context of climate change. The objective of this study is to predict the impacts of climate change on agricultural drought for upland crops and changes in the temporal trends of drought characteristics. First, the changes in crop evapotranspiration and soil moisture in the six upland crops, such as Soybeans, Maize, Potatoes, Red Peppers, Chinese Cabbage (spring and fall) were analyzed by applying the soil moisture model from commonly available crop and soil characteristics and climate data, and were analyzed for the past 30 years (1981-2010), and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios (2011-2100). Second, the changes on the temporal trends of drought characteristics were performed using run theory, which was used to compare drought duration, severity, and magnitude to allow for quantitative evaluations under past and future climate conditions.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제64권5호
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• pp.53-65
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• 2022

Most of the reservoirs managed by the city and county are small and it is difficult to respond to climate change because the drainage area is small and the inflow increases rapidly when a heavy rain occurs. In this study, the current status of reservoirs managed by city and county in Gyeonggi-do was reviewed and flood vulnerability due to climate change was analyzed. In order to analyze the impact of climate change, CMIP6-based future climate scenario provided by IPCC was used, and future rainfall data was established through downscaling of climate scenario (SSP8-8.5). The flood vulnerability of reservoirs due to climate change was evaluated using the concept provided by the IPCC. The future annual precipitation at six weather stations appeared a gradual increase and the fluctuation range of the annual precipitation was also found to increase. As a result of calculating the flood vulnerability index, it was analyzed that the flood vulnerability was the largest in the 2055s period and the lowest in the 2025s period. In the past period (2000s), the number of D and E grade reservoirs was 58, but it was found to increase to 107 in the 2055s period. In 2085s, there were 17 E grade reservoirs, which was more than in the past. Therefore, it is necessary to take measures against the increasing risk of flooding in the future.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제60권1호
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• pp.121-131
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• 2018

Past climate change influences multiple environmental aspects, certain of which are specifically related to agricultural water resources such as water supply and demand. Changes on rainfall and hydrologic patterns can increases the occurrence of reservoir water shortage and affect the future availability of agricultural water resources. It is a main concern for sustainable development in agricultural water resources management to evaluate adaptation capability of water supply under the changing climate and farming methods in paddy field. The purpose of this study is an evaluation method of design frequency of drought and water supply safety for agricultural reservoirs to investigate evidence of climate change occurrences at a local scale. Thus, it is a recommended practice in the development of water supply management strategies on reservoir operation under changing climate and farming methods in paddy field.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제66권1호
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• pp.49-66
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• 2024

Extreme rainfall will become intense due to climate change, increasing inundation risk to agricultural land. Hydrological and hydraulic simulations for the entire watershed were conducted to analyze the impact of climate change. Rainfall data was collected based on past weather observation and SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathway)5-8.5 climate change scenarios. Simulation for flood volume, reservoir operation, river level, and inundation of agricultural land was conducted through K-HAS (KRC Hydraulics & Hydrology Analysis System) and HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center - River Analysis System). Various scenarios were selected, encompassing different periods of rainfall data, including the observed period (1973-2022), near-term future (2021-2050), mid-term future (2051-2080), and long-term future (2081-2100), in addition to probabilistic precipitation events with return periods of 20 years and 100 years. The inundation area of the Aho-Buin district was visualized through GIS (Geographic Information System) based on the results of the flooding analysis. The probabilistic precipitation of climate change scenarios was calculated higher than that of past observations, which affected the increase in reservoir inflow, river level, inundation time, and inundation area. The inundation area and inundation time were higher in the 100-year frequency. Inundation risk was high in the order of long-term future, near-term future, mid-term future, and observed period. It was also shown that the Aho and Buin districts were vulnerable to inundation. These results are expected to be used as fundamental data for assessing the risk of flooding for agricultural land and downstream watersheds under climate change, guiding drainage improvement projects, and making flood risk maps.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제48권3호
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• pp.433-446
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• 2021

In this study, the future flood inundation changes under a climate change were simulated in the Tonle Sap basin in Cambodia, one of the countries with high vulnerability to climate change. For the flood inundation simulation using the rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model, globally available geological data (digital elevation model [DEM]; hydrological data and maps based on Shuttle elevation derivatives [HydroSHED]; land cover: Global land cover facility-moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer [GLCF-MODIS]), rainfall data (Asian precipitation-highly-resolved observational data integration towards evaluation [APHRODITE]), climate change scenario (HadGEM3-RA), and observational water level (Kratie, Koh Khel, Neak Luong st.) were constructed. The future runoff from the Kratie station, the upper boundary condition of the RRI model, was constructed to be predicted using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Based on the results predicted by the LSTM model, a total of 4 cases were selected (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5: 2035, 2075; RCP 8.5: 2051, 2072) with the largest annual average runoff by period and scenario. The results of the analysis of the future flood inundation in the Tonle Sap basin were compared with the results of previous studies. Unlike in the past, when the change in the depth of inundation changed to a range of about 1 to 10 meters during the 1997 - 2005 period, it occurred in a range of about 5 to 9 meters during the future period. The results show that in the future RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the variability of discharge is reduced compared to the past and that climate change could change the runoff patterns of the Tonle Sap basin.

• KIEAE Journal
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• 제11권6호
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• pp.81-86
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• 2011

By strengthening the insulation performance of a building, a great deal of energy can be saved and a comfortable indoor environment can be offered to people. On the other hand, the climate, which has a great influence on the indoor environment, is changed by global warming. Therefore, in planning building envelope structure and design, climate change should be considered. In this paper, the optimal insulation thickness of exterior walls was calculated by an economic assessment method using heating degree-days. Additionally, how much influence climate change has on planning building insulation was investigated. The examination showed that heating degree-days have decreased by about 10% due to climate change in the past few decades. It was also shown that the optimal insulation thickness of exterior walls was thin, at about 6%, in three representative Korean cities (Seoul, Daejeon, Jeju).

• 대기
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• 제22권2호
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• pp.149-161
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• 2012

Going by the research results of the past, of all the uncertainties resulting from the research on climate change, the uncertainty caused by the climate change scenario has the highest degree of uncertainty. Therefore, depending upon what kind of climate change scenario one adopts, the projection of the water resources in the future will differ significantly. As a matter of principle, it is highly recommended to utilize all the GCM scenarios offered by the IPCC. However, this could be considered to be an impractical alternative if a decision has to be made at an action officer's level. Hence, as an alternative, it is deemed necessary to select several scenarios so as to express the possible number of cases to the maximum extent possible. The objective standards in selecting the climate change scenarios have not been properly established and the scenarios have been selected, either at random or subject to the researcher's discretion. In this research, a new scenario selection process, in which it is possible to have the effect of having utilized all the possible scenarios, with using only a few principal scenarios and maintaining some of the uncertainties, has been suggested. In this research, the use of cluster analysis and the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster have efficiently reduced the number of climate change scenarios. In the cluster analysis method, the K-means clustering method, which takes advantage of the statistical features of scenarios has been employed; in the selection of a representative scenario in each cluster, the selection method was analyzed and reviewed and the PDF method was used to select the best scenarios with the closest simulation accuracy and the principal scenarios that is suggested by this research. In the selection of the best scenarios, it has been shown that the GCM scenario which demonstrated high level of simulation accuracy in the past need not necessarily demonstrate the similarly high level of simulation accuracy in the future and various GCM scenarios were selected for the principal scenarios. Secondly, the "Maximum entropy" which can quantify the uncertainties of the climate change scenario has been used to both quantify and compare the uncertainties associated with all the scenarios, best scenarios and the principal scenarios. Comparison has shown that the principal scenarios do maintain and are able to better explain the uncertainties of all the scenarios than the best scenarios. Therefore, through the scenario selection process, it has been proven that the principal scenarios have the effect of having utilized all the scenarios and retaining the uncertainties associated with the climate change to the maximum extent possible, while reducing the number of scenarios at the same time. Lastly, the climate change scenario most suitable for the climate on the Korean peninsula has been suggested. Through the scenario selection process, of all the scenarios found in the 4th IPCC report, principal climate change scenarios, which are suitable for the Korean peninsula and maintain most of the uncertainties, have been suggested. Therefore, it is assessed that the use of the scenario most suitable for the future projection of water resources on the Korean peninsula will be able to provide the projection of the water resources management that maintains more than 70~80% level of uncertainties of all the scenarios.