• Title/Summary/Keyword: order prediction

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Development of an Eating Habit Checklist for Screening Elementary School Children at High Risk of Energy Overintake (초등학생의 에너지 과잉섭취 위험 진단을 위한 식습관평가표 개발)

  • Yon, Mi-Yong;Hyun, Tai-Sun
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.414-427
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    • 2008
  • The purpose of the study was to develop an eating habit checklist for screening elementary school children at high risk of energy overintake. Dietary habits, food intake, anthropometric data were collected from 142 children (80 boys and 62 girls) in the 4th to 6th grades of elementary schools. Energy intake, fat intake, and percentage of Estimated Energy Requirement (%EER) were used as indices to detect the risk of energy overintake of the children. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between dietary habit scores and energy overintake indices in order to select questions included in the checklist. TV watching during the meal, meal speed, meal amount, overintake frequency, eatingout frequency, snack frequency, frequency of eating Ramyun or fast foods showed significant correlations with energy overintake indices. Stepwise regression analysis was performed to give each item a different weight by prediction strength. To determine the cut-off point of the test score, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values were calculated. The 7-item checklist with test results from 0 to 13 points was developed, and those with equal or higher than 5 points were diagnosed as a risk group of energy overintake. Among our subjects 13.4% was diagnosed as the risk group. Mean energy intake of the subjects in the risk group and the normal group were 2,650 kcal and 1,640 kcal, respectively. However, there were no significant differences of Index of Nutritional Quality (INQ) of the other nutrients except eating fiber between the risk group and the normal group. This checklist will provide a useful screening tool to identify children at high risk of energy overintake.

Development of an Eating Habit Checklist for Screening Elementary School Children at Risk of Inadequate Micronutrient Intake (초등학생의 미량영양소 섭취부족 위험 진단을 위한 간이 식습관평가표 개발)

  • Yon, Mi-Yong;Hyun, Tai-Sun
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.38-47
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of the study was to develop an eating habit checklist for screening elementary school children at risk of inadequate micronutrient intake. Eating habits, food intake, and anthropometric data were collected from 142 children (80 boys and 62 girls) in the $4^{th}$ to $6^{th}$ grades of elementary schools. Percentage of Recommended Intakes (RI) and Mean Adequacy Ratio (MAR) of six micronutrients; vitamin A, riboflavin, vitamin C, calcium, iron, zinc, and the number of nutrients the children consumed below EAR among the six nutrients were used as indices to detect the risk of inadequate micronutrient intake. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated between eating habit scores and inadequate micronutrient intake indices in order to select questions included in the checklist. Meal frequency, enough time for breakfast, regularity of dinner, appetite, eating frequencies of Kimchi, milk, fruits and beans showed significant correlations with indices of inadequate micronutrient intake. Stepwise regression analysis was performed to give each item a different weight by prediction strength. To determine the cut-off point of the test score, sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive values were calculated. The 8-item checklist with test results from 0 to 12 points was developed, and those with equal or higher than 6 points were diagnosed as high-risk group of inadequate micronutrient intake, and those with 4 or 5 points were diagnosed as moderate-risk group. Among our subjects 14.1% was diagnosed as high-risk group, and 30.3% as moderate-risk group. The proportions of the subjects who consumed below EAR of all micronutrients but vitamin C were highest in the high-risk group, and there were significant differences in the proportions of the subjects with intake below EAR of all micronutrients except vitamin B6 among the three groups. This checklist will provide a useful screening tool to identify children at risk of inadequate micronutrient intake.

Optimization of Support Vector Machines for Financial Forecasting (재무예측을 위한 Support Vector Machine의 최적화)

  • Kim, Kyoung-Jae;Ahn, Hyun-Chul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.17 no.4
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    • pp.241-254
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    • 2011
  • Financial time-series forecasting is one of the most important issues because it is essential for the risk management of financial institutions. Therefore, researchers have tried to forecast financial time-series using various data mining techniques such as regression, artificial neural networks, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor etc. Recently, support vector machines (SVMs) are popularly applied to this research area because they have advantages that they don't require huge training data and have low possibility of overfitting. However, a user must determine several design factors by heuristics in order to use SVM. For example, the selection of appropriate kernel function and its parameters and proper feature subset selection are major design factors of SVM. Other than these factors, the proper selection of instance subset may also improve the forecasting performance of SVM by eliminating irrelevant and distorting training instances. Nonetheless, there have been few studies that have applied instance selection to SVM, especially in the domain of stock market prediction. Instance selection tries to choose proper instance subsets from original training data. It may be considered as a method of knowledge refinement and it maintains the instance-base. This study proposes the novel instance selection algorithm for SVMs. The proposed technique in this study uses genetic algorithm (GA) to optimize instance selection process with parameter optimization simultaneously. We call the model as ISVM (SVM with Instance selection) in this study. Experiments on stock market data are implemented using ISVM. In this study, the GA searches for optimal or near-optimal values of kernel parameters and relevant instances for SVMs. This study needs two sets of parameters in chromosomes in GA setting : The codes for kernel parameters and for instance selection. For the controlling parameters of the GA search, the population size is set at 50 organisms and the value of the crossover rate is set at 0.7 while the mutation rate is 0.1. As the stopping condition, 50 generations are permitted. The application data used in this study consists of technical indicators and the direction of change in the daily Korea stock price index (KOSPI). The total number of samples is 2218 trading days. We separate the whole data into three subsets as training, test, hold-out data set. The number of data in each subset is 1056, 581, 581 respectively. This study compares ISVM to several comparative models including logistic regression (logit), backpropagation neural networks (ANN), nearest neighbor (1-NN), conventional SVM (SVM) and SVM with the optimized parameters (PSVM). In especial, PSVM uses optimized kernel parameters by the genetic algorithm. The experimental results show that ISVM outperforms 1-NN by 15.32%, ANN by 6.89%, Logit and SVM by 5.34%, and PSVM by 4.82% for the holdout data. For ISVM, only 556 data from 1056 original training data are used to produce the result. In addition, the two-sample test for proportions is used to examine whether ISVM significantly outperforms other comparative models. The results indicate that ISVM outperforms ANN and 1-NN at the 1% statistical significance level. In addition, ISVM performs better than Logit, SVM and PSVM at the 5% statistical significance level.

Issue tracking and voting rate prediction for 19th Korean president election candidates (댓글 분석을 통한 19대 한국 대선 후보 이슈 파악 및 득표율 예측)

  • Seo, Dae-Ho;Kim, Ji-Ho;Kim, Chang-Ki
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.24 no.3
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    • pp.199-219
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    • 2018
  • With the everyday use of the Internet and the spread of various smart devices, users have been able to communicate in real time and the existing communication style has changed. Due to the change of the information subject by the Internet, data became more massive and caused the very large information called big data. These Big Data are seen as a new opportunity to understand social issues. In particular, text mining explores patterns using unstructured text data to find meaningful information. Since text data exists in various places such as newspaper, book, and web, the amount of data is very diverse and large, so it is suitable for understanding social reality. In recent years, there has been an increasing number of attempts to analyze texts from web such as SNS and blogs where the public can communicate freely. It is recognized as a useful method to grasp public opinion immediately so it can be used for political, social and cultural issue research. Text mining has received much attention in order to investigate the public's reputation for candidates, and to predict the voting rate instead of the polling. This is because many people question the credibility of the survey. Also, People tend to refuse or reveal their real intention when they are asked to respond to the poll. This study collected comments from the largest Internet portal site in Korea and conducted research on the 19th Korean presidential election in 2017. We collected 226,447 comments from April 29, 2017 to May 7, 2017, which includes the prohibition period of public opinion polls just prior to the presidential election day. We analyzed frequencies, associative emotional words, topic emotions, and candidate voting rates. By frequency analysis, we identified the words that are the most important issues per day. Particularly, according to the result of the presidential debate, it was seen that the candidate who became an issue was located at the top of the frequency analysis. By the analysis of associative emotional words, we were able to identify issues most relevant to each candidate. The topic emotion analysis was used to identify each candidate's topic and to express the emotions of the public on the topics. Finally, we estimated the voting rate by combining the volume of comments and sentiment score. By doing above, we explored the issues for each candidate and predicted the voting rate. The analysis showed that news comments is an effective tool for tracking the issue of presidential candidates and for predicting the voting rate. Particularly, this study showed issues per day and quantitative index for sentiment. Also it predicted voting rate for each candidate and precisely matched the ranking of the top five candidates. Each candidate will be able to objectively grasp public opinion and reflect it to the election strategy. Candidates can use positive issues more actively on election strategies, and try to correct negative issues. Particularly, candidates should be aware that they can get severe damage to their reputation if they face a moral problem. Voters can objectively look at issues and public opinion about each candidate and make more informed decisions when voting. If they refer to the results of this study before voting, they will be able to see the opinions of the public from the Big Data, and vote for a candidate with a more objective perspective. If the candidates have a campaign with reference to Big Data Analysis, the public will be more active on the web, recognizing that their wants are being reflected. The way of expressing their political views can be done in various web places. This can contribute to the act of political participation by the people.

Analysis of National Stream Drying Phenomena using DrySAT-WFT Model: Focusing on Inflow of Dam and Weir Watersheds in 5 River Basins (DrySAT-WFT 모형을 활용한 전국 하천건천화 분석: 전국 5대강 댐·보 유역의 유입량을 중심으로)

  • LEE, Yong-Gwan;JUNG, Chung-Gil;KIM, Won-Jin;KIM, Seong-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.53-69
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    • 2020
  • The increase of the impermeable area due to industrialization and urban development distorts the hydrological circulation system and cause serious stream drying phenomena. In order to manage this, it is necessary to develop a technology for impact assessment of stream drying phenomena, which enables quantitative evaluation and prediction. In this study, the cause of streamflow reduction was assessed for dam and weir watersheds in the five major river basins of South Korea by using distributed hydrological model DrySAT-WFT (Drying Stream Assessment Tool and Water Flow Tracking) and GIS time series data. For the modeling, the 5 influencing factors of stream drying phenomena (soil erosion, forest growth, road-river disconnection, groundwater use, urban development) were selected and prepared as GIS-based time series spatial data from 1976 to 2015. The DrySAT-WFT was calibrated and validated from 2005 to 2015 at 8 multipurpose dam watershed (Chungju, Soyang, Andong, Imha, Hapcheon, Seomjin river, Juam, and Yongdam) and 4 gauging stations (Osucheon, Mihocheon, Maruek, and Chogang) respectively. The calibration results showed that the coefficient of determination (R2) was 0.76 in average (0.66 to 0.84) and the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.62 in average (0.52 to 0.72). Based on the 2010s (2006~2015) weather condition for the whole period, the streamflow impact was estimated by applying GIS data for each decade (1980s: 1976~1985, 1990s: 1986~1995, 2000s: 1996~2005, 2010s: 2006~2015). The results showed that the 2010s averaged-wet streamflow (Q95) showed decrease of 4.1~6.3%, the 2010s averaged-normal streamflow (Q185) showed decreased of 6.7~9.1% and the 2010s averaged-drought streamflow (Q355) showed decrease of 8.4~10.4% compared to 1980s streamflows respectively on the whole. During 1975~2015, the increase of groundwater use covered 40.5% contribution and the next was forest growth with 29.0% contribution among the 5 influencing factors.

Predictive Factors of Health promotion behaviors of Industrial Shift Workers (산업장 교대근무 근로자의 건강증진행위 예측요인)

  • Kim, Young-Mi
    • Korean Journal of Occupational Health Nursing
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.13-30
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    • 2002
  • Industrial shift workers feels suffer mental stresses which are caused by unfamiliar day sleep, noisy environment, sleeping disorder by bright light, unusual contacts with family, difficulty in meeting with friends or having formal social meetings and other social limitations such as the use of transportation. Such stresses influence health of the workers negatively. Thus the health promotion policy for shift workers should be made considering the workers' ways of living and shift work specially. This study attempted to provide basic information for development of the health promotion program for industrial shift workers by examining predictive factors influencing health promotion behaviors of those workers. In designing the study, three power generation plants located in Pusan and south Kyungsang province were randomly selected and therefrom 280 workers at central control, boiler and turbine rooms and environmental chemistry parts whose processes require shift works were sampled as subjects of the study. Data were collected two times from September 17 to October 8, 1999 using questionnaires with helps of safety and health managers of the plants. The questionnaires were distributed through mails or direct visits. Means for the study included the measurement tool of health promotion behavior provided by Park(1995), the tool of self-efficacy measurement by Suh(1995), the tool of internal locus of control measurement by Oh(1987), the measurement tool of perceived health state by Park(1995) and the tool of social support measurement by Paek(1995). The collected data were analyzed using SPSS program. Controlling factors of the subjects were evaluated in terms of frequency and percentage ratio Perceived factors and health promotion behaviors of the subjects were done so in terms of mean and standard deviation, and average mark and standard deviation, respectively. Relations between controlling and perceived factors were analyzed using t-test and ANOVA and those between perceived factors and the performance of health promotion behaviors, using Pearson's Correlation Coefficient. The performance of health promotion behaviors was tested using t-test, ANOVA and post multi-comparison (Scheffe test). Predictive factors of health promotion behavior were examined through the Stepwise Multiple Regression Analysis. Results of the study are summarized as follows. 1. The performance of health promotion behaviors by the subjects was evaluated as having the value of mean, $161.27{\pm}26.73$ points(min.:60, max.:240) and average mark, $2.68{\pm}0.44$ points(min.:1, max.:4). When the performance was analyzed according to related aspects, it showed the highest level in harmonious relation with average mark, $3.15{\pm}.56$ points, followed by hygienic life($3.03{\pm}.55$), self-realization ($2.84{\pm}.55$), emotional support($2.73{\pm}.61$), regular meals($2.71{\pm}.76$), self-control($2.62{\pm}.63$), health diet($2.62{\pm}.56$), rest and sleep($2.60{\pm}.59$), exercise and activity($2.53{\pm}.57$), diet control($2.52{\pm}.56$) and special health management($2.06{\pm}.65$). 2. In relations between perceived factors of the subjects(self-efficacy, internal locus of control, perceived health state) and the performance of health promotion behaviors, the performance was found having significantly pure relations with self-efficacy (r=.524, P=.000), internal locus of control (r=.225, P=.000) and perceived health state(r=.244, P=.000). The higher each evaluated point of the three factors was, the higher the performance was in level. 3. When relations between the controlling factors(demography-based social, health-related, job-related and human relations characteristics) and the performance of health promotion behaviors were analyzed, the performance showed significant differences according to marital status (t=2.09, P= .03), religion(F=3.93, P= .00) and participation in religious activities (F=8.10, P= .00) out of demography-based characteristics, medical examination results (F=7.20, P= .00) and methods of the collection of health knowledge and information(F=3.41, P= .01) and methods of desired health education(F=3.41, P= .01) out of health-related characteristics, detrimental factors perception(F=4.49, P= .01) and job satisfaction(F=8.41, P= .00) out of job-related characteristics and social support(F=14.69, P= .00) out of human relations characteristics. 4. The factor which is a variable predicting best the performance of health promotion behaviors by the subjects was the self-efficacy accounting for 27.4% of the prediction, followed by participation in religious activities, social support, job satisfaction, received health state and internal locus of control in order all of which totally account for 41.0%. In conclusion, the predictive factor which most influence the performance of health promotion behaviors by shift workers was self-efficacy. To promote the sense, therefore, it is necessary to develop the nursing intervention program considering predictive factors as variables identified in this study. Further industrial nurses should play their roles actively to help shift workers increase their capability of self-management of health.

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CORRELATION OF CARIES ACTIVITY BETWEEN MOTHERS AND CHILDREN WITH CARIOGRAM AND EVALUATION OF CARIES RISK FACTORS (Cariogram을 이용한 모자간 우식활성도의 상관성 및 우식위험요소 평가)

  • Lee, Suk-Woo;Song, Je-Seon;Choi, Byung-Jai;Choi, Hyung-Jun;Lee, Jae-Ho
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.36 no.3
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    • pp.337-347
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    • 2009
  • Dental caries during infantile and early childhood period is a complex disease resulting from multiple caries factors. Streptococcus mutans(S. mutans) plays a critical role in the initiation of caries, and its early transmission through mothers provides a strong etiologic factor for future development of caries in the primary dentition. Therefore, early detection of caries risk factor is important for prevention of caries. Recent studies about etiologic factors of caries have brought advent of various tools for caries risk assessment in order to predict progress of caries more accurately. Cariogram is a common tool for caries risk assessment, which illustrates present caries risk assessment and correlation of caries risk factors for an individual graphically. The aim of this study was to assess if there is any correlation in the level of S. mutans and caries activity and to verify the effect of caries risk factors between children with age ranging from 3 to 5 years with severe early childhood caries(S-ECC) and their mothers using caries-related salivary test and Cariogram. The results of this study were as follows. 1. Children with S-ECC had a statistically higher level of Streptococcus mutans compared to caries-free children(p<0.05). 2. There was significant correlation between mothers and their children in the aspect of the level of Streptococcus mutans(p<0.05). 3. When caries activity was assessed using Cariogram, significant correlation between mothers and their children was found(p<0.05). 4. When each caries risk factor was evaluated for its affect on caries activity, host was more influential factor compared to microorganism and diet in children. Based on these results, we could conclude that assessing the level of S. mutans can be an effective tool for predicting possibility of caries formation in future. Since prediction of future caries progression and evaluation of caries risk factor became possible with Cariogram, we may conduct early and preventive measures for treatment of caries.

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Lahar flow simulation using Laharz_py program: Application for the Mt. Halla volcano, Jeju, Korea (Laharz_py 프로그램을 이용한 라하르 수치모의: 한라산 화산체에 적용)

  • Yun, Sung-Hyo;Chang, Cheolwoo
    • The Journal of the Petrological Society of Korea
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.361-372
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    • 2016
  • Lahar, one of catastrophic events, has the potential to cause the loss of life and damage to infrastructure over inhabited areas. This study using Laharz_py program, was performed schematic prediction on the impact area of lahar hazards at the Mt. Halla volcano, Jeju island. In order to comprehensively address the impact of lahar for the Mt. Halla, two distinct parameters, H/L ratio and lahar volume, were selected to influence variable for Laharz_py simulation. It was carried out on the basis of numerical simulation by estimating a possible lahar volumes of 30,000, 50,000, 70,000, 100,000, 300,000, $500,000m^3$ according to H/L ratios (0.20, 0.22 and 0.25) was applied. Based on the numerical simulations, the area of the proximal hazard zone boundary is gradually decreased with increasing H/L ratio. The number of streams which affected by lahar tended to decrease with increasing H/L ratio. In the case of H/L ratio 0.20, three streams (Gwangryeong stream, Dogeun stream, Han stream) in the Jeju-si area and six streams (Gungsan stream, Hogeun stream, Seohong stream, Donghong stream, Bomok stream, Yeong stream-Hyodon stream) in the Seogwipo-si area are affected. In the case of H/L ratio 0.22, two streams (Gwangryeong stream and Han stream) in the Jeju-si area and five streams (Gungsan stream, Seohong stream, Donghong stream, Bomok stream, Yeong stream-Hyodon stream) in the Seogwipo-si area are affected. And in the case of H/L ratio 0.25, two streams (Gwangryeong stream and Han stream) in the Jeju-si area and one stream (Yeong stream-Hyodon stream) in the Seogwipo-si area are affected. The results of this study will be used as basic data to create a risk map for the direct damage that can be caused due to volcanic hazards arising from Mt. Halla.

Prediction of Seabed Topography Change Due to Construction of Offshore Wind Power Structures in the West-Southern Sea of Korea (서남해에서 해상풍력구조물의 건설에 의한 해저지형의 변화예측)

  • Jeong, Seung Myung;Kwon, Kyung Hwan;Lee, Jong Sup;Park, Il Heum
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.31 no.6
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    • pp.423-433
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    • 2019
  • In order to predict the seabed topography change due to the construction of offshore wind power structures in the west-southern sea of Korea, field observations for tides, tidal currents, suspended sediment concentrations and seabed sediments were carried out at the same time. These data could be used for numerical simulation. In numerical experiments, the empirical constants for the suspended sediment flux were determined by the trial and error method. When a concentration distribution factor was 0.1 and a proportional constant was 0.05 in the suspended sediment equilibrium concentration formulae, the calculated suspended sediment concentrations were reasonably similar with the observed ones. Also, it was appropriate for the open boundary conditions of the suspended sediment when the south-east boundary corner was 11.0 times, the south-west was 0.5 times, the westnorth 1.0 times, the north-west was 1.0 times and the north-east was 1.0 times, respectively, using the time series of the observed suspended sediment concentrations. In this case, the depth change was smooth and not intermittent around the open boundaries. From these calibrations, the annual water depth change before and after construction of the offshore wind power structures was shown under 1 cm. The reason was that the used numerical model for the large scale grid could not reproduce a local scour phenomenon and they showed almost no significant velocity change over ± 2 cm/s because the jacket structures with small size diameter, about 1 m, were a water-permeable. Therefore, it was natural that there was a slight change on seabed topography in the study area.

Habitat Distribution Change Prediction of Asiatic Black Bears (Ursus thibetanus) Using Maxent Modeling Approach (Maxent 모델을 이용한 반달가슴곰의 서식지 분포변화 예측)

  • Kim, Tae-Geun;Yang, DooHa;Cho, YoungHo;Song, Kyo-Hong;Oh, Jang-Geun
    • Korean Journal of Ecology and Environment
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.197-207
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    • 2016
  • This study aims at providing basic data to objectively evaluate the areas suitable for reintroduction of the species of Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) in order to effectively preserve the Asiatic black bears in the Korean protection areas including national parks, and for the species restoration success. To this end, this study predicted the potential habitats in East Asia, Southeast Asia and India, where there are the records of Asiatic black bears' appearances using the Maxent model and environmental variables related with climate, topography, road and land use. In addition, this study evaluated the effects of the relevant climate and environmental variables. This study also analyzed inhabitation range area suitable for Asiatic black and geographic change according to future climate change. As for the judgment accuracy of the Maxent model widely utilized for habitat distribution research of wildlife for preservation, AUC value was calculated as 0.893 (sd=0.121). This was useful in predicting Asiatic black bears' potential habitat and evaluate the habitat change characteristics according to future climate change. Compare to the distribution map of Asiatic black bears evaluated by IUCN, Habitat suitability by the Maxent model were regionally diverse in extant areas and low in the extinct areas from IUCN map. This can be the result reflecting the regional difference in the environmental conditions where Asiatic black bears inhabit. As for the environment affecting the potential habitat distribution of Asiatic black bears, inhabitation rate was the highest, according to land coverage type, compared to climate, topography and artificial factors like distance from road. Especially, the area of deciduous broadleaf forest was predicted to be preferred, in comparison with other land coverage types. Annual mean precipitation and the precipitation during the driest period were projected to affect more than temperature's annual range, and the inhabitation possibility was higher, as distance was farther from road. The reason is that Asiatic black bears are conjectured to prefer more stable area without human's intervention, as well as prey resource. The inhabitation range was predicted to be expanded gradually to the southern part of India, China's southeast coast and adjacent inland area, and Vietnam, Laos and Malaysia in the eastern coastal areas of Southeast Asia. The following areas are forecast to be the core areas, where Asiatic black bears can inhabit in the Asian region: Jeonnam, Jeonbuk and Gangwon areas in South Korea, Kyushu, Chugoku, Shikoku, Chubu, Kanto and Tohoku's border area in Japan, and Jiangxi, Zhejiang and Fujian border area in China. This study is expected to be used as basic data for the preservation and efficient management of Asiatic black bear's habitat, artificially introduced individual bear's release area selection, and the management of collision zones with humans.