• Title/Summary/Keyword: optimal price

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An Optimal Conjunctive Operation of Water Transmission Systems from Multiple Sources with applying EPAnet and KModSim Model (KModSim 모형(模型)에 의한 도시지역(都市地域) 다중수원(多衆水源) 송수관망간(送水管網間) 최적(最適) 연계(連繫) 운영(運營) 연구(硏究))

  • Ryu, Tae-Sang;Cheong, Tae-Sung;Ko, Ick-Hwan;Ha, Sung-Ryong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2008.05a
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    • pp.500-504
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this paper is to evaluate the feasibility of using an optimization model as a effective way to search conjunctive operation scheme to meet two conditions; one is to minimize the electric cost for pumping and another is to meet the water demand for satisfying customers. The feasibility is confirmed as comparing the best combinations of pumps between multi-regional water supply networks from multiple sources which are obtained through an optimization modeling and EPAnet modeling. KModsim model, a network optimization model, was used to determine conjunctive operation scheme in the pipe system. KModsim, based on Lagrangian Relaxation algorithm, is useful for modeling network system and obtaining simultaneously pump combination and water allocation with given input option such as energy unit cost supplying from a source into a consumer, operating pumping combination. This study develops the procedure of determining optimal conjunctive operation scheme with using KModsim model. As a study region, the water supplying systems of the Geojae-city in the Geongsang Namdo Province was selected and investigated. The EPAnet hydraulic simulation result(Ryu et al, 2007, KSWW) gave input data for optimization model; energy unit price(won/$m^3$), water service available area etc.. It was assured that the combination of pump operation through optimum conjunctive operation is to be optimum scheme to obtain the best economic water allocation with comparison to the hydraulic simulation result such as electric cost and pump combination cases. The results obtained through the study are as follows. First, It was found that a well-allocated water supply scheme, the best combination of pump operation through optimum joint operation, promises to save the electric cost and satisfy all operational goals such as stability and revenues during the period. Second, an application of KModSim, a network model, gave the amount of water allocation from each source to a consumer with consideration of economic supply. Finally, in a service area available to supply through conjunctive operation of existing inter-regional water supply networks within short distance, a conjunctive operation is useful for determining each transmission pipeline's service area and maximizing the effectiveness of optimizations in pumping operation time.

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Selection Model of System Trading Strategies using SVM (SVM을 이용한 시스템트레이딩전략의 선택모형)

  • Park, Sungcheol;Kim, Sun Woong;Choi, Heung Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.59-71
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    • 2014
  • System trading is becoming more popular among Korean traders recently. System traders use automatic order systems based on the system generated buy and sell signals. These signals are generated from the predetermined entry and exit rules that were coded by system traders. Most researches on system trading have focused on designing profitable entry and exit rules using technical indicators. However, market conditions, strategy characteristics, and money management also have influences on the profitability of the system trading. Unexpected price deviations from the predetermined trading rules can incur large losses to system traders. Therefore, most professional traders use strategy portfolios rather than only one strategy. Building a good strategy portfolio is important because trading performance depends on strategy portfolios. Despite of the importance of designing strategy portfolio, rule of thumb methods have been used to select trading strategies. In this study, we propose a SVM-based strategy portfolio management system. SVM were introduced by Vapnik and is known to be effective for data mining area. It can build good portfolios within a very short period of time. Since SVM minimizes structural risks, it is best suitable for the futures trading market in which prices do not move exactly the same as the past. Our system trading strategies include moving-average cross system, MACD cross system, trend-following system, buy dips and sell rallies system, DMI system, Keltner channel system, Bollinger Bands system, and Fibonacci system. These strategies are well known and frequently being used by many professional traders. We program these strategies for generating automated system signals for entry and exit. We propose SVM-based strategies selection system and portfolio construction and order routing system. Strategies selection system is a portfolio training system. It generates training data and makes SVM model using optimal portfolio. We make $m{\times}n$ data matrix by dividing KOSPI 200 index futures data with a same period. Optimal strategy portfolio is derived from analyzing each strategy performance. SVM model is generated based on this data and optimal strategy portfolio. We use 80% of the data for training and the remaining 20% is used for testing the strategy. For training, we select two strategies which show the highest profit in the next day. Selection method 1 selects two strategies and method 2 selects maximum two strategies which show profit more than 0.1 point. We use one-against-all method which has fast processing time. We analyse the daily data of KOSPI 200 index futures contracts from January 1990 to November 2011. Price change rates for 50 days are used as SVM input data. The training period is from January 1990 to March 2007 and the test period is from March 2007 to November 2011. We suggest three benchmark strategies portfolio. BM1 holds two contracts of KOSPI 200 index futures for testing period. BM2 is constructed as two strategies which show the largest cumulative profit during 30 days before testing starts. BM3 has two strategies which show best profits during testing period. Trading cost include brokerage commission cost and slippage cost. The proposed strategy portfolio management system shows profit more than double of the benchmark portfolios. BM1 shows 103.44 point profit, BM2 shows 488.61 point profit, and BM3 shows 502.41 point profit after deducting trading cost. The best benchmark is the portfolio of the two best profit strategies during the test period. The proposed system 1 shows 706.22 point profit and proposed system 2 shows 768.95 point profit after deducting trading cost. The equity curves for the entire period show stable pattern. With higher profit, this suggests a good trading direction for system traders. We can make more stable and more profitable portfolios if we add money management module to the system.

A Study on the Development of HMR Products of Korean Foods Using Conjoint Analysis (컨조인트 분석법을 이용한 한국 음식의 HMR 상품 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Won-Sik;Seo, Kyung-Hwa;Lee, Soo-Bum
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.156-167
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    • 2012
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the structural elements of HMR in Korea foods and explore the way HMR products using Korean foods can be developed at this time of increased interest. Through an investigation of its importance by attributes and their partial values, hypothetical HMR products using Korean foods were estimated. In order to develop the optimal HMR goods of Korean food, a preference survey was conducted after selecting 9 profiles using conjoint analysis with orthogonal design, and 4 holdout sets were generated and used for cross-validity authorization and reliability of the model. The results of this study showed that customers put cooking levels, menu price, and the location of purchase into importance when selecting HMR products of Korean foods. They preferred to eat the products after sufficiently heating them and buy the products sold online and through home shopping programs, with the price range of 10,000 won and over. It was concluded that more customers can be attracted if a variety of HMR products using Korean foods which can be prepared readily anywhere and at any time are developed.

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A Route-Splitting Approach to the Vehicle Routing Problem (차량경로문제의 경로분할모형에 관한 연구)

  • Kang, Sung-Min
    • Proceedings of the Korean Operations and Management Science Society Conference
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.57-78
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    • 2005
  • The vehicle routing problem (VRP) is to determine a set of feasible vehicle routes, one for each vehicle, such that each customer is visited exactly once and the total distance travelled by the vehicles is minimized. A feasible route is defined as a simple circuit including the depot such that the total demand of the customers in the route does not exceed the vehicle capacity. While there have been significant advances recently in exact solution methodology, the VRP is not a well solved problem. We find most approaches still relying on the branch and bound method. These approaches employ various methodologies to compute a lower bound on the optimal value. We introduce a new modelling approach, termed route-splitting, for the VRP that allows us to address problems whose size is beyond the current computational range of set-partitioning models. The route-splitting model splits each vehicle route into segments, and results in more tractable subproblems. Lifting much of the burden of solving combinatorially hard subproblems, the route-splitting approach puts more weight on the LP master problem, Recent breakthroughs in solving LP problems (Nemhauser, 1994) bode well for our approach. Lower bounds are computed on five symmetric VRPs with up to 199 customers, and eight asymmetric VRPs with up to 70 customers. while it is said that the exact methods developed for asymmetric instances have in general a poor performance when applied to symmetric ones (Toth and Vigo, 2002), the route splitting approach shows a competent performance of 93.5% on average in the symmetric VRPs. For the asymmetric ones, the approach comes up with lower bounds of 97.6% on average. The route-splitting model can deal with asymmetric cost matrices and non-identical vehicles. Given the ability of the route-splitting model to address a wider range of applications and its good performance on asymmetric instances, we find the model promising and valuable for further research.

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Financial Feasibility Analysis for the Development of Urban Telecommunication Facility Purpose Site (도심 통신기반시설용지의 개발을 위한 재무타당성 분석에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Kyungyong;Jeong, Moonoh;Lee, Sangyoub
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.16 no.5
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    • pp.31-41
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    • 2015
  • The telecommunication industry has been considered as a national fundamental infrastructure. However, due to the rapid evolution of technology and the change of industry market conditions, the telecommunication infrastructure needs no more huge space for facility and it leads its use to the mixed-use development based on private investment. This study intends to examine the financial feasibility of the development project for the optimal alternative use of telecommunication facility purpose site as a case study based on two types: contributed acceptance and multi-level designation. The NPA and IRR has been analyzed by the simulation of stochastic variables including rent price and its variation rate, vacancy rate, construction cost, capitalization rate and discount rate. The research finding indicates that the two types of development are satisfied with the financial feasibility and it is noteworthy that the rent price turns out to be the most critical factor for the project. Accordingly, it is expected that these research finding can be applied for providing the solid cases of financial feasibility analysis for the development project in limited use of telecommunication facility purpose site.

A Study on the Development Strategy of VR Game Content by Group Based on Conjoint Analysis (컨조인트 분석을 통한 집단별 VR게임콘텐츠의 개발 전략에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ho Seok;Jeong, Jong In;Lee, Bong Gyou
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.137-146
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    • 2020
  • VR(Virtual Reality), which has drawn attention as a major area in ICT, is currently being used in various fields, including medical care, movies and architecture. Although VR technology is used in various fields, contents are mainly developed by creators where needs of users are easily left out of consideration leading to failure in forming a consensus between UI(User Interface) and UX(user experience). To identify the consumer preference and attribute level of VR game content, which is responsible for the largest proportion of VR contents, this study was designed to examine the consumers' preference properties of VR game contents through a Conjoint Analysis and derive the relative importance and weightings of each group. The study collected 166 questionnaires over a total of three months from May to July 2019, 150 of which were completed (90.4%). Statistic analysis was conducted using SPSS Ver. 25.0. The results of the study showed that the genre of the game (42.6%), number of players (24.0%), price for payment (20.3%) and game planning (13.1%) were important attributes in choosing VR games. The optimal mix of attributes was derived with new games, RPGs, multi-play and medium price (22,000 KRW). Before mentioning technology in the expectations of users who use VR game content, which is the most preferred among VR contents, this study recognized the need to have a fun and new experience through VR game content. Therefore, it is expected that this will serve as a reference for consumer behavior of VR game contents and research on VR game contents development.

A Review about the Need for Modelling Toll Road with Different Value of Travel Time (유료도로의 교통수요분석에 있어서 통행시간가치 차등화 필요성 검토)

  • Kim, Jae-Yeong;Son, Ui-Yeong;Jeong, Chang-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2009
  • Some road charges toll to finance the cost or to manage traffic congestion. With a growth of PPI projects, toll roads would be increase continuously. Tolls have a considerable influence on user's route choice, and sometimes can affect to the departure time and even to mode choice. For modelling toll roads, user's WTP or VOT has an important role and it is general that VOT is equivalent to the wages of workers. The current way of modelling technique yields various toll price elasticity from low to high. When there exist few alternative routes, unrealistic result that all traffic assigned to some shortest path may occur. The toll price elasticity can be influenced by alternative route and congestion level, but some result shows nearly unrealistic patterns. The model to forecast more realistic toll road demand is very essential for estimating toll revenue, choice of optimal toll level & collecting location and establishing toll charge strategy. This paper reviewed some literatures about toll road modelling and tested case study about the assignment technique with different VOT. The case study shows that using different VOT yields more realistic result than the use of single VOT.

Effect of Peeling Blades and Abrasives on Mechanical Peeling of Cynanchum wilfordii Hemsley (박피(剝皮)날 및 연마재(硏磨材)가 백하수오(白何首烏) 기계박피(機械剝皮)에 미치는 영향(影響))

  • Kim Ju;Kim Chang-Soo;Song Yeung-Eun;Lee Yun-Suk;Shim Jin-Chan;Han Jong-Hyun;Kwak Joon-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Acupuncture
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.165-170
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    • 2001
  • A rapid increasing in cultivation area due to favorable price temporarily and decreasing in consumer's demands caused by economic depressions recently, lead the price of Cynanchum wilfordii Hemsley to decline sharply. Thus, it may give rises to weakening of cultivation bases in Cynanchum wilfordii Hemsley. To investigate optimal mechanical peeling conditions of Cynanchum wilfordii Hemsley, protruded rubber, plastic pad, diamond shape's steel and palstic brush were introduced as blades and artificial stone, sand and small pebble were done as abrasives. The main results obtained were summarized as follows; 1. It took 2 minutes per 1kg in mechanical peeling of Cynanchum wilfordii Hemsley's raw root whereas 36 minutes in manual peeling and values of lightness showed more higher in manual peeling than in mechanical peeling. 2. Yield in combination of diamond shape's steel blade and sand abrasive showed the lowest at 89.9% among treatments and peeling rates in combination of diamond shape's steel blade and small pebble showed the highest at 71.3% in mechanical peeling. 3. Lightness, one of the most important factors in determining quality of Cynanchum wilfordii Hemsley, showed the highest in combination of diamond shape's steel blade and small pebble brasive at 61.90 in mechanical peeling. 4. As the speed of rotation gets faster, yields tend to lower in mechanical peeling. Peeling rates and lightness showed the highest at 66.8%, 57.96 respectively among treatments at 30 r.p.m. in mechanical peeling.

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A Comparative Analysis of the Forecasting Performance of Coal and Iron Ore in Gwangyang Port Using Stepwise Regression and Artificial Neural Network Model (단계적 회귀분석과 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 광양항 석탄·철광석 물동량 예측력 비교 분석)

  • Cho, Sang-Ho;Nam, Hyung-Sik;Ryu, Ki-Jin;Ryoo, Dong-Keun
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.44 no.3
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    • pp.187-194
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    • 2020
  • It is very important to forecast freight volume accurately to establish major port policies and future operation plans. Thus, related studies are being conducted because of this importance. In this paper, stepwise regression analysis and artificial neural network model were analyzed to compare the predictive power of each model on Gwangyang Port, the largest domestic port for coal and iron ore transportation. Data of a total of 121 months J anuary 2009-J anuary 2019 were used. Factors affecting coal and iron ore trade volume were selected and classified into supply-related factors and market/economy-related factors. In the stepwise regression analysis, the tonnage of ships entering the port, coal price, and dollar exchange rate were selected as the final variables in case of the Gwangyang Port coal volume forecasting model. In the iron ore volume forecasting model, the tonnage of ships entering the port and the price of iron ore were selected as the final variables. In the analysis using the artificial neural network model, trial-and-error method that various Hyper-parameters affecting the performance of the model were selected to identify the most optimal model used. The analysis results showed that the artificial neural network model had better predictive performance than the stepwise regression analysis. The model which showed the most excellent performance was the Gwangyang Port Coal Volume Forecasting Artificial Neural Network Model. In comparing forecasted values by various predictive models and actually measured values, the artificial neural network model showed closer values to the actual highest point and the lowest point than the stepwise regression analysis.

Risk Spillover between Shipping Company's Stock Price and Marine Freight Index (해운선사 주가와 해상운임지수 사이의 위험 전이효과)

  • Choi Ki-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.1
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    • pp.115-129
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    • 2023
  • This study analyzed the risk spillover of BDI on shipping company stock prices through the Copula-CoVaR method based on daily data from January 4, 2010, to October 31, 2022. The main empirical analysis results and policy implications are as follows. First, copula results showed that there was a weak dependence between BDI and shipping company stock prices, and PAN, KOR, and YEN were selected as the most fitting model for dynamic Student-t copula, HMM was selected as the rotated Gumbel copula, and KSS was selected as the best model. Second, in the results of CoVaR, it was confirmed that the upside (downside) CoVaR was significantly different from the upside (downside) VaR in all shipping companies. This means that BDI has a significant risk spillover on shipping companies. In addition, as for the risk spillover, the downside risk is generally lower than the upside risk, so the downside and upside risk spillover were found to be asymmetrical. Therefore, policymakers should strengthen external risk supervision and establish differentiated policies suitable for domestic conditions to prevent systematic risks from BDI shocks. And investors should reflect external risks from BDI fluctuations in their investment decisions and construct optimal investment portfolios to avoid risks. On the other hand, investors propose that the investment portfolio should be adjusted in consideration of the asymmetric characteristics of up and down risks when making investment decisions.