• Title/Summary/Keyword: optimal error estimates

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Optimization of the Gain Parameters in a Tracking Module for ARPA system on Board High Dynamic Warships

  • Pan, Bao-Feng;Njonjo, Anne Wanjiru;Jeong, Tae-Gweon
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.40 no.5
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    • pp.241-247
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    • 2016
  • The tracking filter plays a key role in the accurate estimation and prediction of maneuvering a vessel's position and velocity when attempting to enhance safety by avoiding collision. Therefore, in order to achieve accurate estimation and prediction, many oceangoing vessels are equipped with the Automatic Radar Plotting Aid (ARPA) system. However, the accuracy of prediction depends on the tracking filter's ability to reduce noise and maintain a stable transient response. The purpose of this paper is to derive the optimal values of the gain parameters used in tracking a High Dynamic Warship. The algorithm employs a ${\alpha}-{\beta}-{\gamma}$ filter to provide accurate estimates and updates of the state variables, that is, positions, velocity and acceleration of the high dynamic warship based on previously observed values. In this study, the filtering coefficients ${\alpha}$, ${\beta}$ and ${\gamma}$ are determined from set values of the damping parameter, ${\xi}$. Optimization of the damping parameter, ${\xi}$, is achieved experimentally by plotting the residual error against different values of the damping parameter to determine the least value of the damping parameter that results in the optimum smoothing coefficients leading to a reduction in the noise corruption effect. Further investigation of the performance of the filter indicates that optimal smoothing coefficients depend on the initial and average velocity of the target.

Pressure Regulation System for Optimal Operation of the Pneumatic VAD with Bellows-Type Closed Pneumatic Circuit (벨로우즈 방식의 폐회로를 가진 공압식 심실 보조장치의 최적 작동을 위한 압력 조절 시스템)

  • Kim, Bum-Soo;Lee, Jung-Joo;Nam, Kyung-Won;Jeong, Gi-Seok;Ahn, Chi-Bum;Sun, Kyung
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.569-576
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    • 2007
  • Ventricular Assist Device(VAD) has switched its goal from a short-tenn use for bridge-to-transplantation to a long-tenn use for destination therapy, With this goal, the importance of long-tenn reliability gets more interests and importances, H-VAD is an portable extracorporeal biventricular assist device, and adopts an electro-pneumatic driving mechanism. The pneumatic pressure to pump out blood is generated with compression of bellows, and is transmitted in a closed pneumatic circuit through a pneumatic line. The existing pneumatic VAD adopts a air compressor which can generate stable pressures but has defects such as a noise and a size problem. Thus, it is not suitable for being used as a portable device, These problems are covered with adopting a closed pneumatic circuit mechanism with a bellows which has a small size and small noise generation, but it has defects that improper pneumatic setting causes a failure of adequate flow generation. In this study, the pneumatic pressure regulation system is developed to cover these defects of a bellows-type pneumatic VAD. The optimal pneumatic pressure conditions according to various afterload conditions for an optimal flow rate were investigated and the afterload estimation algorithm was developed, The final pneumatic regulation system estimates a current afterload and regulate the pneumatic pressure to the optimal point at a given afterload condition. The afterload estimation algorithm showed a sufficient performance that the standard deviation of error is 8.8 mmHg, The pneumatic pressure regulation system showed a sufficient performance that the flow rate was stably governed to various afterload conditions. In a further study, if a additional sensor such as ultrasonic sensor is developed to monitor the direct movement of diaphragm in a blood pump part, the reliability would be greatly increased. Moreover, if the afterload estimation algorithm gets more accuracy, it would be also helpful to monitor the hemodynamic condition of patients.

Conceptual Cost Estimate Method of Public Office Building Structural Frame Work by Regression Analysis (회귀분석을 통한 공공청사 골조 공사의 개산견적 방안)

  • Jo, Yeong-Ho;Choi, Hyun-Jun;Kim, Jung-Won;Yun, Seok-Heon
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.147-153
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    • 2020
  • It is important to estimate the optimal construction cost at the early stage of the project. In this regard, conceptual cost estimate is an important factor for estimate optimal construction cost. However, domestic conceptual cost estimate are only used as cost per unit area according to the building type, and it's accuracy is not high. Hence, the purpose of this study is to calculate the approximate quantity and cost for reinforcing bars, concrete, and formwork by presenting a regression formula based on the total floor area of the common work items in the frame work. In order to verify the accuracy and validity of the regression formula presented in this study, a comparative analysis was performed by applying the regression formula and the traditional approximate quantity take-off method to real cases. As a result, the estimated error rate of the traditional method was -102~+55%, and exceeded the estimated conceptual cost estimate accuracy range of -50~+100% suggested by AACE(American Association of Cost Engineering). On the other hand, the error rate of the regression formula method presented in this study was -6.4~+11.62%. This can be used not only for conceptual cost estimate range of accuracy, but also for detailed estimates. However, it is necessary to analyze the factors that affect the unit price as well as quantity in order to calculate the appropriate cost.

The Posture Estimation of Mobile Robots Using Sensor Data Fusion Algorithm (센서 데이터 융합을 이용한 이동 로보트의 자세 추정)

  • 이상룡;배준영
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.2021-2032
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    • 1992
  • A redundant sensor system, which consists of two incremental encoders and a gyro sensor, has been proposed for the estimation of the posture of mobile robots. A hardware system was built for estimating the heading angle change of the mobile robot from outputs of the gyro sensor. The proposed hardware system of the gyro sensor produced an accurate estimate for the heading angle change of the robot. A sensor data fusion algorithm has been developed to find the optimal estimates of the heading angle change based on the stochastic measurement equations of our readundant sensor system. The maximum likelihood estimation method is applied to combine the noisy measurement data from both encoders and gyro sensor. The proposed fusion algorithm demonstrated a satisfactory performance, showing significantly reduced estimation error compared to the conventional method, in various navigation experiments.

Assessment of merging weather radar precipitation data and ground precipitation data according to various interpolation method (보간법에 따른 기상레이더 강수자료와 지상 강수자료의 합성기법 평가)

  • Kim, Tae-Jeong;Lee, Dong-Ryul;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.12
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    • pp.849-862
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    • 2017
  • The increased frequency of meteorological disasters has been observed due to increased extreme events such as heavy rainfalls and flash floods. Numerous studies using high-resolution weather radar rainfall data have been carried out on the hydrological effects. In this study, a conditional merging technique is employed, which makes use of geostatistical methods to extract the optimal information from the observed data. In this context, three different techniques such as kriging, inverse distance weighting and spline interpolation methods are applied to conditionally merge radar and ground rainfall data. The results show that the estimated rainfall not only reproduce the spatial pattern of sub-hourly rainfall with a relatively small error, but also provide reliable temporal estimates of radar rainfall. The proposed modeling framework provides feasibility of using conditionally merged rainfall estimation at high spatio-temporal resolution in ungauged areas.

LNG Gas Demand Forecasting in Incheon Port based on Data: Comparing Time Series Analysis and Artificial Neural Network (데이터 기반 인천항 LNG 수요예측 모형 개발: 시계열분석 및 인공신경망 모형 비교연구)

  • Beom-Soo Kim;Kwang-Sup Shin
    • The Journal of Bigdata
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.165-175
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    • 2023
  • LNG is a representative imported cargo at Incheon Port and has a relatively high contribution to the increase/decrease in overall cargo volume at Incheon Port. In addition, in the view point of nationwide, LNG is the one of the most important key resource to supply the gas and generate electricity. Thus, it is very essential to identify the factors that have impact on the demand fluctuation and build the appropriate forecasting model, which present the basic information to make balance between supply and demand of LNG and establish the plan for power generation. In this study, different to previous research based on macroscopic annual data, the weekly demand of LNG is converted from the cargo volume unloaded by LNG carriers. We have identified the periodicity and correlations among internal and external factors of demand variability. We have identified the input factors for predicting the LNG demand such as seasonality of weekly cargo volume, the peak power demand, and the reserved capacity of power supply. In addition, in order to predict LNG demand, considering the characteristics of the data, time series prediction with weekly LNG cargo volume as a dependent variable and prediction through an artificial neural network model were made, the suitability of the predictions was verified, and the optimal model was established through error comparison between performance and estimates.

Estimation of Near Surface Air Temperature Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data and Geostatistics (MODIS 지표면 온도 자료와 지구통계기법을 이용한 지상 기온 추정)

  • Shin, HyuSeok;Chang, Eunmi;Hong, Sungwook
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2014
  • Near surface air temperature data which are one of the essential factors in hydrology, meteorology and climatology, have drawn a substantial amount of attention from various academic domains and societies. Meteorological observations, however, have high spatio-temporal constraints with the limits in the number and distribution over the earth surface. To overcome such limits, many studies have sought to estimate the near surface air temperature from satellite image data at a regional or continental scale with simple regression methods. Alternatively, we applied various Kriging methods such as ordinary Kriging, universal Kriging, Cokriging, Regression Kriging in search of an optimal estimation method based on near surface air temperature data observed from automatic weather stations (AWS) in South Korea throughout 2010 (365 days) and MODIS land surface temperature (LST) data (MOD11A1, 365 images). Due to high spatial heterogeneity, auxiliary data have been also analyzed such as land cover, DEM (digital elevation model) to consider factors that can affect near surface air temperature. Prior to the main estimation, we calculated root mean square error (RMSE) of temperature differences from the 365-days LST and AWS data by season and landcover. The results show that the coefficient of variation (CV) of RMSE by season is 0.86, but the equivalent value of CV by landcover is 0.00746. Seasonal differences between LST and AWS data were greater than that those by landcover. Seasonal RMSE was the lowest in winter (3.72). The results from a linear regression analysis for examining the relationship among AWS, LST, and auxiliary data show that the coefficient of determination was the highest in winter (0.818) but the lowest in summer (0.078), thereby indicating a significant level of seasonal variation. Based on these results, we utilized a variety of Kriging techniques to estimate the surface temperature. The results of cross-validation in each Kriging model show that the measure of model accuracy was 1.71, 1.71, 1.848, and 1.630 for universal Kriging, ordinary Kriging, cokriging, and regression Kriging, respectively. The estimates from regression Kriging thus proved to be the most accurate among the Kriging methods compared.

Comparative assessment and uncertainty analysis of ensemble-based hydrologic data assimilation using airGRdatassim (airGRdatassim을 이용한 앙상블 기반 수문자료동화 기법의 비교 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Lee, Garim;Lee, Songhee;Kim, Bomi;Woo, Dong Kook;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.761-774
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    • 2022
  • Accurate hydrologic prediction is essential to analyze the effects of drought, flood, and climate change on flow rates, water quality, and ecosystems. Disentangling the uncertainty of the hydrological model is one of the important issues in hydrology and water resources research. Hydrologic data assimilation (DA), a technique that updates the status or parameters of a hydrological model to produce the most likely estimates of the initial conditions of the model, is one of the ways to minimize uncertainty in hydrological simulations and improve predictive accuracy. In this study, the two ensemble-based sequential DA techniques, ensemble Kalman filter, and particle filter are comparatively analyzed for the daily discharge simulation at the Yongdam catchment using airGRdatassim. The results showed that the values of Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were improved from 0.799 in the open loop simulation to 0.826 in the ensemble Kalman filter and to 0.933 in the particle filter. In addition, we analyzed the effects of hyper-parameters related to the data assimilation methods such as precipitation and potential evaporation forcing error parameters and selection of perturbed and updated states. For the case of forcing error conditions, the particle filter was superior to the ensemble in terms of the KGE index. The size of the optimal forcing noise was relatively smaller in the particle filter compared to the ensemble Kalman filter. In addition, with more state variables included in the updating step, performance of data assimilation improved, implicating that adequate selection of updating states can be considered as a hyper-parameter. The simulation experiments in this study implied that DA hyper-parameters needed to be carefully optimized to exploit the potential of DA methods.