• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.79-89
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• 1997

In order to reduce the outbreaks of short-term high concentrations and its impacts, we developed the models which predicted tomorrow's maximum hourly concentrations of $O_3$, TSP, SO$_2$, NO$_2$ and CO. Statistical methods like multi regressions were used because it must be operated easily under the present conditions. 47 independent variables were used, which included observed concentrations of air pollutants, observed and forcasted meteorological data in 1994 at Seoul and its surrounding areas. We subdivided Seoul into 4 areas coinciding with the present ozone warning areas. 4 kinds of seasonal models were developed due to the seasonal variations of observed concentrations, and 2 kinds of data models for the unavailable case of forecasted meteorological data. By comparing the $R^2$and root mean square error(hearafter 'RMSE') of each model, we confirmed that the models including forecasted data showed higher accuracy than ones using observed only. It was also shown that the higher the seasonal mean concentrations, the larger the RMSE. There was no distinct difference between the results of 4 areal models. In case of test run using 1995's data, the models predicted well the trends of daily variation of concentrations and the days when the possibility of outbreak of high concentarion was high. This study showed that it was reasonable to use those models as operational ones, because the $R^2$ and RMSE of models were smaller than those of operational/research models such as in South Coast Air Basin, CA, USA.