• The Korean Journal of Financial Management
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.75-106
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• 2007

In this study, it is analyzed whether oil price plays a major role in the pricing return on Koran stock market and examined why the covariance risk between oil and return on stock is different in each industry. Firstly, this study explores whether the expected rate of return on stock is pricing due to global oil price factors as a function of risk premium by using a two-factor APT. Also, it is examined whether spill-over effects of oil price volatility affect the beta risk to oil price. Considering the asymmetry of oil price volatility, we use the GJR model. As a result, it shows that oil price is an independent pricing factor and oil price volatility transmits to stock return in only electricity and electrical equipment. Secondly, the two step-analyzing process is introduced to find why the covariance between oil price factor and stock return is different in each industry. The first step is to study whether beta risk exists in each industry by using two proxy variables like size and liquidity as control variables. The second step is to grasp the systematic relationship between the difference of liquidity and size and beta to oil price factor by using the panel-data model which can be analyzed efficiently using the cross-sectional data formed with time series. Through the analysis, we can argue that oil price factor is an independent pricing factor in only electricity and electrical equipment having the greatest market capitalization, and know that beta risk to oil price factor is a proxy of size in the other industries. According to the result of panel-data model, it is argued that the beta to oil price factor augments when market capitalization increases and this fact supports the first assertion. In conclusion, the expected rate of return of electricity and electrical equipment works as a function of risk premium to market portfolio and oil price, and the reason to make beta risk power differentiated in each industry attributes to the size.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.7 no.6
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• pp.145-155
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• 2020

This study analyzes the degree of competition in the oil refinery market in Korea, which is considered an oligopoly market. The price of gasoline and diesel and the quantity of supply are used to identify the market competition. We also analyze whether the oil tax reduction policy has affected market competition. The competitiveness of the market was examined using monthly data from 2008 to 2019. Bresnahan-Lau method was employed to estimate the degree of competition in the oil refinery market, which is frequently used in the industrial studies. The analysis shows that the gasoline and diesel markets seem close to a perfect competitive market. Also, the tax cut has weakened market competition. In other words, the monopolistic power has increased in the market, so consumers have not benefit from the price cuts as much as tax cuts. Although the oil refinery market where four major companies are competing, the government's monitoring and price disclosure system help the market to be highly competitive as much as a perfect competition market. The tax cut, in the high oil price era, has a negative effect on the competition because of an information asymmetry about the price-setting process between suppliers and consumers.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.201-220
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• 2005

Recently, we have been witnessing new records of crude oil price hikes. One question which naturally arises would be the possibility and accuracy of forecasting crude oil prices. This study tries to answer the relative predictability of futures prices compared to the forecasts based on experts system. Using WTI crude oil spot and futures prices, this study performs simple statistical comparisons in forecasting accuracy and a formal test of differences in forecasting errors. According to statistical results, WTI crude oil futures market turns out to be equally efficient relative to EIA experts system. Consequently, WTI crude oil futures market could be utilized as a market-based tool for price forecasting and/or resource allocation for both of petroleum producers and consumers.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.753-773
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• 2005

This paper is a study of the investment dynamics focusing on crude oil supply by OPEC and non-OPEC. Oil supply capacity is first determined by a leader, OPEC, and by an aggregate that represents non-OPEC producers. OPEC wants to increase a gain from oil price increase while keeping its market share relative to non-OPEC's share. An investment rule model is developed for OPEC crude oil supply capacity in response to non-OPEC's decision. In presence of oil price uncertainty, oil price threshold is derived above which it is optimal for OPEC to expand oil supply capacity since otherwise the increased supply of non-OPEC results in weakening of OPEC market share in the world oil market. In addition, a lower threshold price is derived below which OPEC triggers a capacity reduction to regain its otherwise forgone profits. A simulation is provided for calculating the capacity expansion and reduction thresholds.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.9 no.2
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• pp.373-391
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• 2000

This paper investigates the existence of a long-run relationship between world oil price and consumer price index for Korea during 1983~1999. The cointegration and error correction modelling approaches have been applied. Empirical results suggest that there exists a long-run relationship among world oil prices. consumer prices, M2 and a production gap variable. The dynamic behavior of the relationship has been investigated by estimating a error correction model, in which the error correction term have been found significant. The error correction model has also been found to be robust as it satisfy almost all relevant diagnostic tests.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business
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• v.11 no.3
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• pp.243-260
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• 2020

Purpose - This paper aims to investigate the properties of crude oil based derivative security (DLS) focusing on step-down type for comprehensive understanding of its risk. Design/methodology/approach - Kernel estimation is conducted to figure out statistical feature of the process of oil price. We simulate oil price paths based on kernel estimation results and derive probabilities of hitting the barrier and early redemption. Findings - The amount of issuance for crude oil based DLS is relatively low when base prices are below $40 while it is high when base prices are around $60 or $100, which is not consistent with kernel estimation results showing that oil futures prices tend to revert toward $46.14 and the mean-reverting speed is faster as oil price is lower. The analysis based on simulated oil price paths reveals that probability of early redemption is below 50% for DLS with high base prices and the ratio of the probability of early redemption to the probability of hitting barrier is remarkably low compared to the case for DLS with low base prices, as the chance of early redemption is deferred. Research implications or Originality - Empirical results imply that the level of the base price is a crucial factor of the risk for DLS, thus introducing a time-varying knock-in barrier, which is similar to adjust the base price, merits consideration to enhance protection for DLS investors.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.215-242
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• 2010

This study constructs a bayesian neoclassical DSGE model that applies oil usage. The model includes technology shocks, oil price shocks, and shocks to energy policies as exogenous driving forces. First, this study aims to analyze the roles of these exogenous shocks in the Korean business cycle. Second, this study examines the effects of long-term changes in the energy consumption structure, including the reduction in oil use as a share of energy consumption and improvement in oil efficiency. In the case of oil price shocks, results show that these shocks exert recessionary pressure on the economy in line with those obtained in the previous literature. On the other hand, shocks to energy policies, which reduce oil consumption per capital, result in opposite consequences to oil price shocks, decreasing oil consumption. Also, counterfactual exercises show that long-term changes in the energy consumption structure would mitigate the contractionary effects of oil price shocks.

• The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.153-172
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• 2009

Developing foreign fishing ground executed in various uncertainty such as fishing price, oil price, exchange rate. But traditional economic evaluation method, CVP(Cost-Volume-Profit) analysis doesn't consider uncertainty of foreign fishing ground. So we need new approach about economic evaluation that can take into account uncertainty. This study focus on the economic evaluation about experimental survey of tuna fishing grounds in the north pacific ocean by sensitive analysis and simulation. The results of the economic evaluation can be summarized as follows. First, when we take it for granted that the other uncertainty factors except for each fishing price, oil price, and exchange rate are constant. CVP gross sales has positive relation to the increasing rate of oil price, exchange rate(W/$) and negative relation to the increasing rate of fishing price and exchange rate(W/${\yen}$). Second, when we are supposing that fishing price, oil price, and exchange rate are followed. the probability of less than CVP gross sales is A ship(48.87%), B ship(49.64%), C ship(50.55%). Consequently, the economic evaluation by sensitive analysis and simulation is more useful tool than CVP(Cost-Volume-Profit) analysis under uncertainty.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.479-504
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• 2006

This paper analyzes a price discovery process for international crude oils including the WTI, Brent and Dubai. Error correction model is employed considering non-stationarity property of crude oil price and the contemporaneous causality is constructed by graph theory to analyze the short-term causality. The empirical analysis for January 4., 1999 to July 15., 2005 reveals that the Brent price interconnects between the WTI price and the Dubai price. This result implies the substantial influence of the Brent price as a marker oil.

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Building Construction Conference
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• 2012.05a
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• pp.319-320
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• 2012

International oil prices is the world's leading macroeconomic indicators. Rising international oil price has been worsening. profitability of construction company including material cost as well stagnation in housing market. Thus, according to fluctuations in international oil prices has cost index need to see any change happening there. in this study, 2000 to 2011 interest rates, exchange rates and oil price fluctuations in construction cost is to compare the impact.