• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.22 no.1
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• pp.221-235
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• 2009

This manuscript illustrates the comparative study between ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing modeling to develop forest fire forecasting system using different weather parameters. In this paper, authors have developed the most suitable and closest forecasting models like ARIMA and Exponential Smoothing techniques using different weather parameters. Authors have considered the extremes of the Wind speed, Radiation, Maximum Temperature and Deviation Temperature of the Summer Season form March to June month for the Ranchi Region in Jharkhand. The data is taken by own resource with the help of Automatic Weather Station. This paper consists a deep study of the effect of extreme values of the different parameters on the weather fluctuations which creates forest fires in the region. In this paper, the numerical illustration has been incorporated to support the present study. Comparative study of different suitable models also incorporated and best fitted model has been tested for these parameters.

• Journal of Astronomy and Space Sciences
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• v.40 no.1
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• pp.11-18
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• 2023

The ionosphere is one of the key components of the near-Earth's space environment and has a practical consequence to the human society as a nearest region of the space environment to the Earth. Therefore, it becomes essential to specify and forecast the state of the ionosphere using both the observations and numerical models. In particular, numerical modeling of the ionosphere is a prerequisite not only for better understanding of the physical processes occurring within the ionosphere but also for the specification and forecast of the space weather. There are several approaches for modeling the ionosphere, including data-based empirical modeling, physics-based theoretical modeling and data assimilation modeling. In this review, these three types of the ionospheric model are briefly introduced with recently available models. And among those approaches, fundamental aspects of the physics-based ionospheric model will be described using the basic equations governing the mid-latitude ionosphere. Then a numerical solution of the equations will be discussed with required boundary conditions.

• Atmosphere
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.319-332
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• 2006

This study examines the capability of the WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model in reproducing heavy rainfall that developed over the Korean peninsula on 26-27 June 2005. The model is configured with a triple nesting with the highest horizontal resolution at a 3-km grid, centered at Yang-dong, Gyeonggi-province, which recorded the rainfall amount of 376 mm. In addition to the control experiment employing realistic orography over Korea, two consequent sensitivity experiments with 1) no orography, and 2) no land over Korea were designed to investigate orographic effects on the development of heavy rainfall. The model was integrated for 48 hr, starting at 1200 UTC 25 June 2005. The overall features of the large-scale patterns including a cyclone associated with the heavy rainfall are reasonably reproduced by the control run. The spatial distribution of the simulated rainfall over Korea agreed fairly well with the observed. The amount of predicted maximum rainfall at the 3-km grid is 377 mm, which located about 50 km southeast from the observed point, Yang-Dong, indicating that the WRF model is capable of predicting heavy rainfall over Korea at the cloud resolving resolutions. Further, it was found that the complex orography over the Korean peninsula plays a role in enhancing the rainfall intensity by about 10%. The land-sea contrast over the peninsula was fund to be responsible for additional 10% increase of rainfall amount.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.36 no.6
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• pp.553-566
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• 2015

The effects of vertical resolutions and planetary boundary layer (PBL) physics schemes in a numerical simulation with a very high resolution over the metropolitan area were investigated. The numerical experiments using the Weather Research and Forecast model were conducted from 0000 UTC 25 October to 0000 UTC 26 October 2013. We verified the numerical results against with six hourly observation data from the radiosonde at Seolleung, which was located in southern part of Seoul, and forty three auto weather systems in Seoul. In the experiments of vertical resolutions in low level atmosphere with 44, 50, and 60 layers, which are set to be subdivided particularly under 2 km height. The experiment in 60 layers, which has the highest vertical resolution in this study, showed relatively a clear diurnal variation of PBL heights. Especially, the difference of PBL heights and 10-meter wind fields were mainly seen in the area of high altitude lands for the experiments of vertical resolution. In the sensitivity experiment of PBL schemes such as asymmetric convective model-version 2 (ACM2), Yonsei University (YSU), and Mellow-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ) to the temperature, all three PBL schemes revealed lower temperature than observed profile from the radiosonde in the entire period. The experiments with YSU PBL and ACM2 PBL schemes show relatively less biased in comparison with the experiment of the MYJ PBL scheme.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.85-95
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• 2016

In this study, we investigated the variabilities of wind speed of 850 hPa and precipitable water over the East Asia region using the NCEP Final Analysis data from December 2001 to November 2011. A large variance of wind speed was observed in northern and eastern China during the winter period. During summer, the regions of the East China Sea, the South Sea of Japan and the East Sea show large variances in the wind speed caused by an extended North Pacific High and typhoon activities. The large variances in the wind speed in the regions are shown to be correlated with the inter-annual variability of precipitable water over the inland region of windward side of the Korean Peninsula. Based on the investigation, sensitivity tests to the domain size were performed using the WRF model version 3.6 for heavy precipitation events over the Korean Peninsula for 26 and 27 July 2011. Numerical experiments of different domain sizes were set up with 5 km horizontal and 50 levels vertical resolutions for the control and the first experimental run, and 9 km horizontal for the second experimental run. We found that the major rainfalls correspond to shortwave troughs with baroclinic structure over Northeast China and extended North Pacific High. The correlation analysis between the observation and experiments for 1-h precipitation indicated that the second experiment with the largest domain had the best performance with the correlation coefficient of 0.79 due to the synoptic-scale systems such as short-wave troughs and North Pacific High.

• Atmosphere
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• v.31 no.3
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• pp.311-326
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• 2021

To improve the predictability of high-impact weather phenomena around Seoul, where a larger number of people are densely populated, KMA conducted the intensive observation from 22 June to 20 September in 2020 over the Seoul area. During the intensive observation period (IOP), the dropsonde from NIMS Atmospheric Research Aircraft (NARA) and the radiosonde from KMA research vessel Gisang1 were observed in the Yellow Sea, while, in the land, the radiosonde observation data were collected from Icheon and Incheon. Therefore, in this study, the effects of radiosonde and dropsonde data during the IOP were investigated by Observing System Experiment (OSE) based on Korean Integrated Model (KIM). We conducted two experiments: CTL assimilated the operational fifteen kinds of observations, and EXP assimilated not only operational observation data but also intensive observation data. Verifications over the Korean Peninsula area of two experiments were performed against analysis and observation data. The results showed that the predictability of short-range forecast (1~2 day) was improved for geopotential height at middle level and temperature at lower level. In three precipitation cases, EXP improved the distribution of precipitation against CTL. In typhoon cases, the predictability of EXP for typhoon track was better than CTL, although both experiments simulated weaker intensity as compared with the observed data.

• Atmosphere
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.183-193
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• 2020

In this study, Yeongdong cold air damming (YCAD) cases that occur in winters have been selected using automatic weather station data of the Yeongdong region of Korea. The vertical and horizontal scales of YCAD were analyzed using rawinsonde and numerical weather model. YCAD occurred in two typical synoptic patterns such that low pressure and trough systems crossing and passing over Korea (low crossing type: LC and low passing type: LP). When the Siberian high does not expand enough to the Korean peninsula, low pressure and trough systems are likely to move over Korea. Eventually this could lead to surface temperature (3.1℃) higher during YCAD than the average in the winter season (1.6℃). The surface temperature during YCAD, however, was decrease by 1.3℃. The cold air layer was elevated around 120 m~450 m for LP-type. For LC-type, the cold layer were found at less than approximately 400 m and over 1,000 m, which could be thought of combined phenomena with synoptic and local weather forcing. The cross-sectional analysis results indicate the accumulation of cold air on the east mountain slope. Additionally, the north or northeasterly winds turned to the northwesterly wind near the coast in all cases. The horizontal wind turning point of LC-type was farther from the top of the mountain (52.2 km~71.5 km) than that of LP-type (20.0 km~43.0 km).

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.12
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• pp.967-974
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• 2011

Based on daily time series from RDAPS numerical weather forecast, Streamflow prediction was simulated and the result of ESP analysis was implemented considering quantitative mid- and long-term forecast to compare the results and review applicability. The result of ESP, ESP considering quantitative weather forecast, and flow forecast from RDAPS numerical weather forecast were compared and analyzed with average observed streamflow in Guem River Basin. Through this process, the improvement effect per method was estimated. The result of ESP considering weather information was satisfactory relatively based on long-term flow forecast simulation result. Discrepancy ratio analysis for estimating accuracy of probability forecast had similar result. It is expected to simulate more accurate flow forecast for RDAPS numerical weather forecast with improved daily scenario including time resolution, which is able to accumulate 3 hours rainfall or continuous simulation estimation.

• Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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• v.2 no.2
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• pp.99-109
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• 1993

Cooling of nutrient solution is essential to improve the growth environment of crops in hydroponic culture during summer season in Korea. This study was carried out to provide fundamental data for development of the cooling system satisfying the required cooling load of nutrient solution in hydroponic greenhouse. A numerical model for prediction of the cooling load of nutrient solution in hydroponic greenhouse was developed, and the results by the model showed good agreements with those by experiments. Main factors effecting on cooling load were solar radiation and air temperature in weather data, and conductivity of planting board and area ratio of bed to floor in greenhouse parameters. Using the model developed, the design cooling load of nutrient solution in hydroponic greenhouse of 1,000$m^2$(300pyong) was predicted to be 95,000 kJ/hr in Suwon and the vicinity.

• Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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• v.24 no.E2
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• pp.92-101
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• 2008

The objective of this study is to evaluate and improve the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating fog and visibility in local airports over Korea. The WRF model system is statistically evaluated for the 48-fog cases over Korea from 2003 to 2006. Based on the 4-yr evaluations, attempts are made to improve the simulation skill of fog and visibility over Korea by revising the statistical coefficients in the visibility algorithms of the WRF model. A comparison of four existing visibility algorithms in the WRF model shows that uncertainties in the visibility algorithms include additional degree of freedom in accuracy of numerical fog forecasts over Korea. A revised statistical algorithm using a linear-regression between the observed visibility and simulated hydrometeors and humidity near the surface exhibits overall improvement in the visibility forecasts.