• Title/Summary/Keyword: nonlinear global analysis

Search Result 270, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Corporate Default Prediction Model Using Deep Learning Time Series Algorithm, RNN and LSTM (딥러닝 시계열 알고리즘 적용한 기업부도예측모형 유용성 검증)

  • Cha, Sungjae;Kang, Jungseok
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
    • /
    • v.24 no.4
    • /
    • pp.1-32
    • /
    • 2018
  • In addition to stakeholders including managers, employees, creditors, and investors of bankrupt companies, corporate defaults have a ripple effect on the local and national economy. Before the Asian financial crisis, the Korean government only analyzed SMEs and tried to improve the forecasting power of a default prediction model, rather than developing various corporate default models. As a result, even large corporations called 'chaebol enterprises' become bankrupt. Even after that, the analysis of past corporate defaults has been focused on specific variables, and when the government restructured immediately after the global financial crisis, they only focused on certain main variables such as 'debt ratio'. A multifaceted study of corporate default prediction models is essential to ensure diverse interests, to avoid situations like the 'Lehman Brothers Case' of the global financial crisis, to avoid total collapse in a single moment. The key variables used in corporate defaults vary over time. This is confirmed by Beaver (1967, 1968) and Altman's (1968) analysis that Deakins'(1972) study shows that the major factors affecting corporate failure have changed. In Grice's (2001) study, the importance of predictive variables was also found through Zmijewski's (1984) and Ohlson's (1980) models. However, the studies that have been carried out in the past use static models. Most of them do not consider the changes that occur in the course of time. Therefore, in order to construct consistent prediction models, it is necessary to compensate the time-dependent bias by means of a time series analysis algorithm reflecting dynamic change. Based on the global financial crisis, which has had a significant impact on Korea, this study is conducted using 10 years of annual corporate data from 2000 to 2009. Data are divided into training data, validation data, and test data respectively, and are divided into 7, 2, and 1 years respectively. In order to construct a consistent bankruptcy model in the flow of time change, we first train a time series deep learning algorithm model using the data before the financial crisis (2000~2006). The parameter tuning of the existing model and the deep learning time series algorithm is conducted with validation data including the financial crisis period (2007~2008). As a result, we construct a model that shows similar pattern to the results of the learning data and shows excellent prediction power. After that, each bankruptcy prediction model is restructured by integrating the learning data and validation data again (2000 ~ 2008), applying the optimal parameters as in the previous validation. Finally, each corporate default prediction model is evaluated and compared using test data (2009) based on the trained models over nine years. Then, the usefulness of the corporate default prediction model based on the deep learning time series algorithm is proved. In addition, by adding the Lasso regression analysis to the existing methods (multiple discriminant analysis, logit model) which select the variables, it is proved that the deep learning time series algorithm model based on the three bundles of variables is useful for robust corporate default prediction. The definition of bankruptcy used is the same as that of Lee (2015). Independent variables include financial information such as financial ratios used in previous studies. Multivariate discriminant analysis, logit model, and Lasso regression model are used to select the optimal variable group. The influence of the Multivariate discriminant analysis model proposed by Altman (1968), the Logit model proposed by Ohlson (1980), the non-time series machine learning algorithms, and the deep learning time series algorithms are compared. In the case of corporate data, there are limitations of 'nonlinear variables', 'multi-collinearity' of variables, and 'lack of data'. While the logit model is nonlinear, the Lasso regression model solves the multi-collinearity problem, and the deep learning time series algorithm using the variable data generation method complements the lack of data. Big Data Technology, a leading technology in the future, is moving from simple human analysis, to automated AI analysis, and finally towards future intertwined AI applications. Although the study of the corporate default prediction model using the time series algorithm is still in its early stages, deep learning algorithm is much faster than regression analysis at corporate default prediction modeling. Also, it is more effective on prediction power. Through the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the current government and other overseas governments are working hard to integrate the system in everyday life of their nation and society. Yet the field of deep learning time series research for the financial industry is still insufficient. This is an initial study on deep learning time series algorithm analysis of corporate defaults. Therefore it is hoped that it will be used as a comparative analysis data for non-specialists who start a study combining financial data and deep learning time series algorithm.

Postbuckling of Composite Cylinders under External Hydrostatic Pressure (외부 수압을 받는 복합재 원통의 후좌굴 연구)

  • Son, Hee-Jin;Choi, Jin-Ho;Cho, Jong-Rae;Cho, Sang-Rae;Kweon, Jin-Hwe
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
    • /
    • v.35 no.3
    • /
    • pp.196-203
    • /
    • 2007
  • The postbuckling behavior and failure of composite cylinders subjected to external hydrostatic pressure are investigated by a finite element method and test. A nonlinear finite element program, ACOS, is used for the postbuckling progressive failure analysis of composite cylinders. A total of 5 carbon/epoxy composite cylinders were fabricated and tested to verify the finite element results. For comparison, analyses by MSC/NASTRAN and MSC/MARC are additionally conducted. Among the softwares, the finite element program, ACOS, predicts the buckling loads the best with about 11 to 26% deviation from experimental results except for one specimen. While the finite element analysis shows global buckling modes with 4 waves in hoop direction, in the experiments the local buckling appears first and results in the final failure without global buckling.

A Simple Model for the Nonlinear Analysis of an RC Shear Wall with Boundary Elements (경계요소를 가진 철근콘크리트 전단벽의 비선형 해석을 위한 간편 모델)

  • Kim, Tae-Wan;Jeong, Seong-Hoon;You, Tae-Sang
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.15 no.4
    • /
    • pp.45-54
    • /
    • 2011
  • A simple model for reinforced concrete shear walls with boundary elements is proposed, which is a macro-model composed of spring elements representing flexure and shear behaviors. The flexural behaviour is represented by vertical springs at the wall ends, where the moment strength and rotational capacity of the wall are based on section analysis. The shear behaviour is represented by a horizontal spring at the wall center, where the key parameters for the shear behavior are based on the flexural behaviour since the shear walls with boundary elements are governed by the flexure. The proposed model was prepared with the results of hysteretic tests of the shear walls, and then the reliability of the hysteretic rule and variables was investigated by nonlinear dynamic analyses. Using parametric study with nonlinear dynamic analyses, the effect of the variables on demand and capacity, which are major parameters in seismic performance evaluation, are investigated. Results show that the measured and calculated shear forces versus the shear distortion relationships are slightly different, but the global response is well simulated. Furthermore, the demand and capacity are also changed in a similar way to the change in the major parameters so that the proposed model may be appropriate for reinforced concrete shear walls with boundary elements.

Elasto-plastic Loading-unloading Nonlinear Analysis of Frames by Local Parameter Control (국부변수 조절을 통한 프레임의 탄소성 하중-제하 비선헝 해석)

  • 박문식
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
    • /
    • v.14 no.4
    • /
    • pp.435-444
    • /
    • 2001
  • Even todays, accurate and efficient algorithms for the large deformation analysis of elastoplastic frame structures lack due to the complexities of kinematics, material nonlinearities and numerical methods to cater for. The author suggests appropriate beam element based upon the incremental formulation from the 3D rod theory where Cauchy stress and engineering strain are variables to incorporate plasticity equations so that objectivity may be satisfied. A rectum mapping methods which can integrate and satisfy yield criteria efficiently is suggested and a continuation method which has global convergency and quadratic speed is developed as well. leading-unloading example problems are tested and the ideas are proved to be valuable.

  • PDF

Numerical modeling of internal waves within a coupled analysis framework and their influence on spar platforms

  • Kurup, Nishu V.;Shi, Shan;Jiang, Lei;Kim, M.H.
    • Ocean Systems Engineering
    • /
    • v.5 no.4
    • /
    • pp.261-277
    • /
    • 2015
  • Internal solitary waves occur due to density stratification and are nonlinear in nature. These waves have been observed in many parts of the world including the South China Sea, Andaman Sea and Sulu Sea. Their effect on floating systems has been an emerging field of interest and recent offshore developments in the South China Sea where several offshore oil and gas discoveries are located have confirmed adverse effects including large platform motions and riser system damage. A valid numerical model conforming to the physics of internal waves is implemented in this paper and the effect on a spar platform is studied. The physics of internal waves is modeled by the Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation, which has a general solution involving Jacobian elliptical functions. The effects of vertical density stratification are captured by solving the Taylor Goldstein equation. Fully coupled time domain analyses are conducted to estimate the effect of internal waves on a typical truss spar, which is configured to South China Sea development requirements and environmental conditions. The hull, moorings and risers are considered as an integrated system and the platform global motions are analyzed. The study could be useful for future guidance and development of offshore systems in the South China Sea and other areas where the internal wave phenomenon is prominent.

Neuro-Fuzzy Control of Interior Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motors: Stability Analysis and Implementation

  • Dang, Dong Quang;Vu, Nga Thi-Thuy;Choi, Han Ho;Jung, Jin-Woo
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • v.8 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1439-1450
    • /
    • 2013
  • This paper investigates a robust neuro-fuzzy control (NFC) method which can accurately follow the speed reference of an interior permanent magnet synchronous motor (IPMSM) in the existence of nonlinearities and system uncertainties. A neuro-fuzzy control term is proposed to estimate these nonlinear and uncertain factors, therefore, this difficulty is completely solved. To make the global stability analysis simple and systematic, the time derivative of the quadratic Lyapunov function is selected as the cost function to be minimized. Moreover, the design procedure of the online self-tuning algorithm is comparatively simplified to reduce a computational burden of the NFC. Next, a rotor angular acceleration is obtained through the disturbance observer. The proposed observer-based NFC strategy can achieve better control performance (i.e., less steady-state error, less sensitivity) than the feedback linearization control method even when there exist some uncertainties in the electrical and mechanical parameters. Finally, the validity of the proposed neuro-fuzzy speed controller is confirmed through simulation and experimental studies on a prototype IPMSM drive system with a TMS320F28335 DSP.

Response modification and seismic design factors of RCS moment frames based on the FEMA P695 methodology

  • Mohammad H. Habashizadeh;Nima Talebian;Dane Miller;Martin Skitmore;Hassan Karampour
    • Steel and Composite Structures
    • /
    • v.49 no.1
    • /
    • pp.47-64
    • /
    • 2023
  • Due to their efficient use of materials, hybrid reinforced concrete-steel (RCS) systems provide more practical and economic advantages than traditional steel and concrete moment frames. This study evaluated the seismic design factors and response modification factor 'R' of RCS composite moment frames composed of reinforced concrete (RC) columns and steel (S) beams. The current International Building Code (IBC) and ASCE/SEI 7-05 classify RCS systems as special moment frames and provide an R factor of 8 for these systems. In this study, seismic design parameters were initially quantified for this structural system using an R factor of 8 based on the global methodology provided in FEMA P695. For analyses, multi-story (3, 5, 10, and 15) and multi-span (3 and 5) archetypes were used to conduct nonlinear static pushover analysis and incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) under near-field and far-field ground motions. The analyses were performed using the OpenSees software. The procedure was reiterated with a larger R factor of 9. Results of the performance evaluation of the investigated archetypes demonstrated that an R factor of 9 achieved the safety margin against collapse outlined by FEMA P695 and can be used for the design of RCS systems.

An Efficient Approach on Reliability Analysis under Multidisciplinary Analysis Systems (다분야 통합해석 시스템의 효율적인 신뢰성 해석기법 연구)

  • Ahn, Joong-Ki;Kwon, Jang-Hyuk
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
    • /
    • v.33 no.3
    • /
    • pp.18-25
    • /
    • 2005
  • Existing methods have performed the reliability analysis using nonlinear optimization techniques. This is mainly due to the fact that they directly apply Multidisciplinary Design Optimization(MDO) frameworks to the reliability analysis formulation. Accordingly, the reliability analysis and the Multidisciplinary Analysis(MDA) are tightly coupled in a single optimizer, which hampers utilizing the recursive and function-approximation based reliability analysis methods such as the Advanced First Order Reliability Method(AFORM). In order to utilize the efficient reliability analysis method under multidisciplinary analysis systems, we propose a new strategy named Sequential Approach on Reliability Analysis under Multidisciplinary analysis systems(SARAM). In this approach, the reliability analysis and the MDA are decomposed and arranged in a sequential manner, making a recursive loop. The efficiency of the SARAM method was verified using three illustrative examples taken from the literatures. Compared with existing methods, it showed the least number of subsystem analyses over other methods while maintaining accuracy.

A Study on Applying the Nonlinear Regression Schemes to the Low-GloSea6 Weather Prediction Model (Low-GloSea6 기상 예측 모델 기반의 비선형 회귀 기법 적용 연구)

  • Hye-Sung Park;Ye-Rin Cho;Dae-Yeong Shin;Eun-Ok Yun;Sung-Wook Chung
    • The Journal of Korea Institute of Information, Electronics, and Communication Technology
    • /
    • v.16 no.6
    • /
    • pp.489-498
    • /
    • 2023
  • Advancements in hardware performance and computing technology have facilitated the progress of climate prediction models to address climate change. The Korea Meteorological Administration employs the GloSea6 model with supercomputer technology for operational use. Various universities and research institutions utilize the Low-GloSea6 model, a low-resolution coupled model, on small to medium-scale servers for weather research. This paper presents an analysis using Intel VTune Profiler on Low-GloSea6 to facilitate smooth weather research on small to medium-scale servers. The tri_sor_dp_dp function of the atmospheric model, taking 1125.987 seconds of CPU time, is identified as a hotspot. Nonlinear regression models, a machine learning technique, are applied and compared to existing functions conducting numerical operations. The K-Nearest Neighbors regression model exhibits superior performance with MAE of 1.3637e-08 and SMAPE of 123.2707%. Additionally, the Light Gradient Boosting Machine regression model demonstrates the best performance with an RMSE of 2.8453e-08. Therefore, it is confirmed that applying a nonlinear regression model to the tri_sor_dp_dp function during the execution of Low-GloSea6 could be a viable alternative.

Thermal-Structure Interaction Parallel Fire Analysis for Steel-Concrete Composite Structures under Bridge Exposed to Fire Loading (화재에 노출된 교량하부 강합성 구조물에 대한 열-구조 연성 병렬화재해석)

  • Yun, Sung-Hwan;Gil, Heungbae;Lee, Ilkeun;Kim, Wooseok;Park, Taehyo
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
    • /
    • v.26 no.4
    • /
    • pp.283-292
    • /
    • 2013
  • The objective of this research is to evaluate of global and local damage for steel-concrete composite structures under highway bridge exposed to fire loading. To enhance the accuracy and efficiency of the numerical analysis, the proposed transient nonlinear thermal structure interaction(TSI) parallel fire analysis method is implemented in ANSYS. To validate the TSI parallel fire analysis method, a comparison is made with the standard fire test results. The proposed TSI parallel fire analysis method is applied to fire damage analysis and performance evaluation for Buchen highway bridge. The result of analysis, temperature of low flange and web are exceed the critical temperature. The deflection and deformation state show good agreement with the fire accident of buchen highway bridge.