• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.10 no.9
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• pp.357-362
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• 2012

We have compared and predicted for non-linear time series data which are real data having different variences using GRCA(1) model and neural network method. In particular, using Korea Composite Stock Price Index rate, mean square errors of prediction are obtained in genaralized random coefficient autoregressive model and neural network method. Neural network method prove to be better in short-term forecasting, however GRCA(1) model perform well in long-term forecasting.

• Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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• v.12 no.4
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• pp.25-31
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• 2005

We know that the Hurst Exponent (HE) is a real number in [0, 1] which denotes randomness of time series. in this research, we suggest non-linear analysis of human biological signals through HE. The feasibility of human biological signals using inductive incitement provides Some diagnosis for active treatment. In our experiment, we measured the heartbeat through the MCG, 29 healthy and 34 abnormal subjects ostensibly. The raw data of acupuncture incitement are supported by opinions of gross examination and pathological diagnosis. The mean values of HE are 0.345, 0.755 and 0.805 for the periods of before, during and after acupuncture treatment, respectively in case of abnormal subjects. On the other hand, the mean values, 0.808, 0.797 and 0.785 are for normal cases, correspondingly. From this data, we show that HE is very significant in abnormal controls according to an acupuncture incitement, and the incitement effect is evidently extracted in abnormal subjects. But, in normal subjects, the incitement effect is meaningless.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.931-954
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• 2003

It is widely recognized that economic time series involved not only the linearities but also the non-linearities. In this paper, when the economic time series data have the nonlinear characteristics we propose the forecasts method using combinations of both forecasts from linear and nonlinear models. In empirical study, we compare the forecasting performance of 4 exchange rates models(AR, GARCH, AR+GARCH, Bilinear model) and combination of these forecasts for dairly Won/Dollar exchange rates returns. The combination method is selected by the estimated individual forecast errors using Monte Carlo simulations. And this study shows that the combined forecasts using unrestricted least squares method is performed substantially better than any other combined forecasts or individual forecasts.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.16 no.2
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• pp.365-376
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• 2003

In this paper we reviewed a variety of non-Gaussian time series models, and studied the model selection criteria such as AIC and BIC to select proper models. We also considered the likelihood ratio test and applied it to analysis of Polio data set.

• Water for future
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.63-69
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• 1979

The sequences of monthly streamflows constitute a non-statonary time series. The purely stochastic model has been applied to data generation of non-stationary time series. Tow different mothods--single site and multisite generation--have been used on the hydrologic time series. In this study the synthetic generation method by bivariate analysis, studied by Thomas Fiering, one of multi-site models, has been applied to the historical data on monthly streamflows at two sites in Nakdong River, and also for validity of this model the single site Thomas Fiering model applied. Through statistical analysis it has been shown that the performance of bivariate Thomas Fiering model was better than that of the other. By comparison of mean and standard deviaion between the historical and the generated, and cross correlogram interpretation, it has been known that the model used herein has good performance to simultaneously generate the monthly streamflows at two sites in a river hasin.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.161-167
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• 2015

It is very difficult to predict time-series data. This is because data obtained from the signal having a non-linear characteristic has an uncertainty. In this paper, By differentiating time-series data is the average of the past data under the premise that change depending on what pattern, and find the soft look of time-series change pattern. This paper also apply the probability variables to generalize time-series data having a specific data according to the reflection ratio of the differentiation. The predicted value is estimated by removing cyclic movement and seasonal fluctuation, and reflect the trend by extracting the irregular fluctuation. Predicted value has demonstrated the superiority of the proposed algorithm and compared with the best results by a simple moving average and the moving average.

• International Journal of Contents
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.23-29
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• 2012

Multiple expression levels of genes obtained using time series microarray experiments have been exploited effectively to enhance understanding of a wide range of biological phenomena. However, the unique nature of microarray data is usually in the form of large matrices of expression genes with high dimensions. Among the huge number of genes presented in microarrays, only a small number of genes are expected to be effective for performing a certain task. Hence, discounting the majority of unaffected genes is the crucial goal of gene selection to improve accuracy for disease diagnosis. In this paper, a non-Gaussian weight matrix obtained from an incremental model is proposed to extract useful features of multivariate time series microarrays. The proposed method can automatically identify a small number of significant features via discovering hidden variables from a huge number of features. An unsupervised hierarchical clustering representative is then taken to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology. The proposed method achieves promising results based on predictive accuracy of clustering compared to existing methods of analysis. Furthermore, the proposed method offers a robust approach with low memory and computation costs.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2003.10a
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• pp.327-332
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• 2003

A new discretization method for nonlinear system with time-delay is proposed. It is based on the well-known Taylor series expansion and the zero-order hold (ZOH) assumption. We know that a discretization of linear system can be obtained with the ZOH assumption and within the sampling interval. A similar line of thinking is available in nonlinear case. The mathematical structure of the new discretization method is explored and under the structure, the sampled-data representation of nonlinear system including time-delay is computed. Provided that the discrete form of the single input nonlinear system with time-delay is derived, this result is easily extended to nonlinear system with multi-input time-delay. For simplicity two inputs are considered in this study. It is enough to generalize that of multiple inputs. Finally, the time-discretization of non-affine nonlinear system with time-delay is investigated for apply all nonlinear system

• Journal of Digital Convergence
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• v.12 no.7
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• pp.261-266
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• 2014

When the number of parameters in the time series model are diverse, it is hard to forecast because of the increasing error by a parameter estimation. If the homogeneity hypothesis which was obtained from the same model about severeal data for the time series is selected, it is easy to get the predictive value better. Nonlinear time-series panel data for each parameter for each time series, since there are so many parameters that are present, and the large number of parameters according to the parameter estimation error increases the accuracy of the forecast deteriorated. Panel present in the time series of multiple independent homogeneity is satisfied by a comprehensive time series to estimate and to test of the parameters. For studying about the homogeneity test for the m independent non-linear of the time series panel data, it needs to set the model and to make the normal conditions for the model, and to derive the homogeneity test statistic. Finally, it shows to obtain the limit distribution according to ${\chi}^2$ distribution. In actual analysis,, we can examine the result for the homogeneity test about nonlinear time series panel data which are 2 groups of stock price data.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.267-276
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• 2017

Seawater intrusion into coastal fractured rock aquifer, resulting in groundwater contamination, is of serious concern in coastal areas of Jeolla Namdo, Korea, which heavily depends on groundwater resources. Time series analysis and forecasting were carried out to analyze and predict EC which is a major indicator of seawater intrusion. Two time series models of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) were tested for suggesting appropriate time series model. Time series data of EC measured over one year showed a increasing trend with short periodic fluctuations, due to tidal effect and pumping, which indicated that EC time series data tended to be non-stationary. SARIMA model was found better fitted to observed EC than any other time series model. Time series analysis and modeling was found to be a useful tool to analyze EC at coastal fractured rock aquifer subject to seawater intrusion.