• Title/Summary/Keyword: new prediction procedure

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Development of Linear Static Alternate Path Progressive Collapse Analysis Procedure Using a Nonlinear Static Analysis Procedure (비선형정적해석 절차를 이용한 선형정적 연쇄붕괴 대체경로 해석방법 개발)

  • Kim, Jin-Koo;Park, Sae-Ro-Mi;Seo, Young-Il
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.569-576
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    • 2011
  • In this paper a new analysis procedure for evaluation of progressive collapse resisting capacity of a structure was proposed based on the nonlinear static analysis procedure. The proposed procedure produces analysis results identical to those obtained by the linear static analysis procedure specified in the GSA guidelines without iteration, therefore saving a lot of computation time and excluding the possibility of human errors during the procedure. To verify the validity of the proposed procedure, the two methods were applied to the analysis of a reinforced concrete moment frame and a steel braced frame subjected to loss of a first story column and the results were compared. According to the analysis results, the two methods produce identical results in the prediction of progressive collapse and the hinge formation. As iterative analysis is not required in the proposed method, significant amount of analysis time is saved in the proposed analysis procedure.

An Empircal Model of Effective Path Length for Rain Attenuation Prediction (강우감쇠 유효경로 길이 예측을 위한 경험 모델)

  • 이주환;최용석;박동철
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Electromagnetic Engineering and Science
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    • v.11 no.5
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    • pp.813-821
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    • 2000
  • The engineering of satellite communication systems at frequencies above 10GHz requires a method for estimating rain-caused outage probabilities on the earth-satellite path. A procedure for predicting a rain attenuation distribution from a point rainfall rate distribution is, therefore, needed. In order to predict rain attenuation on the satellite link, several prediction models such as ITU-R, Global, SAM, DAH model, have been developed and used at a particular propagation condition, they may not be appropriate to a propagation condition in Korean territory. In this paper, a new rain attenuation prediction method appropriate to a propagation condition in Korea is introduced. Based on the results from ETRI measurements, a new method has been derived for an empirical approach with an identification on the horizontal correction factor as in current ITU-R method, and the vertical correction factor has been suggested with decreasing power law as a function of rainfall rate. This proposed model uses the entire rainfall rate distribution as input to the model, while the ITU-R and DAH model approaches only use a single 0.01% annual rainfall rate and assume that the attenuation at other probability levels can be determined from that single point distribution. This new model was compared with several world-wide prediction models. Based on the analysis, we can easily know the importance of the model choice to predict rain attenuation for a particular location in the radio communication system design.

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Application of Fuzzy Information Representation Using Frequency Ratio and Non-parametric Density Estimation to Multi-source Spatial Data Fusion for Landslide Hazard Mapping

  • Park No-Wook;Chi Kwang-Hoon;Kwon Byung-Doo
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.114-128
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    • 2005
  • Fuzzy information representation of multi-source spatial data is applied to landslide hazard mapping. Information representation based on frequency ratio and non-parametric density estimation is used to construct fuzzy membership functions. Of particular interest is the representation of continuous data for preventing loss of information. The non-parametric density estimation method applied here is a Parzen window estimation that can directly use continuous data without any categorization procedure. The effect of the new continuous data representation method on the final integrated result is evaluated by a validation procedure. To illustrate the proposed scheme, a case study from Jangheung, Korea for landslide hazard mapping is presented. Analysis of the results indicates that the proposed methodology considerably improves prediction capabilities, as compared with the case in traditional continuous data representation.

Theoretical analysis of trans-cavitating propeller (준초월공동 프로펠러의 이론적 해석)

  • Cho Chung-Ho;Lee Chang-Sup
    • Proceedings of the KSME Conference
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    • 2002.08a
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    • pp.173-176
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    • 2002
  • The purpose of this study is to develop a tool for the analysis of the cavitating flow around trans-cavitating marine propellers. In this study, a linearized super-cavitation theory was applied in order to analyze the performance of the 2-dimensional foils. The numerical results correlated very well with experimental data. The trans-cavitating propellers, manufactured and tasted in KRISO, is selected to validate the lifting surface procedure. For a TCP with a Johnson's five term section, the comparison between the numerical prediction and experiments is fairly good and promising. The new lifting surface procedure, developed and validated with 2-D foils and a TCP, is generally considered applicable to the practical design of the trans-cavitating propeller with Johnson's five term section

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Fuzzy Modeling by Genetic Algorithm and Rough Set Theory (GA와 러프집합을 이용한 퍼지 모델링)

  • Joo, Yong-Suk;Lee, Chul-Heui
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2002.11c
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    • pp.333-336
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    • 2002
  • In many cases, fuzzy modeling has a defect that the design procedure cannot be theoretically justified. To overcome this difficulty, we suggest a new design method for fuzzy model by combining genetic algorithm(GA) and mush set theory. GA, which has the advantages is optimization, and rule base. However, it is some what time consuming, so are introduce rough set theory to the rule reduction procedure. As a result, the decrease of learning time and the considerable rate of rule reduction is achieved without loss of useful information. The preposed algorithm is composed of three stages; First stage is quasi-optimization of fuzzy model using GA(coarse tuning). Next the obtained rule base is reduced by rough set concept(rule reduction). Finally we perform re-optimization of the membership functions by GA(fine tuning). To check the effectiveness of the suggested algorithm, examples for time series prediction are examined.

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Soft Set Theory Oriented Forecast Combination Method for Business Failure Prediction

  • Xu, Wei;Xiao, Zhi
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.109-128
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    • 2016
  • This paper presents a new combined forecasting method that is guided by the soft set theory (CFBSS) to predict business failures with different sample sizes. The proposed method combines both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to improve forecasting performance. We considered an expert system (ES), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machine (SVM) as forecasting components whose weights are determined by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. The proposed procedure was applied to real data sets from Chinese listed firms. For performance comparison, single ES, LR, and SVM methods, the combined forecasting method based on equal weights (CFBEWs), the combined forecasting method based on neural networks (CFBNNs), and the combined forecasting method based on rough sets and the D-S theory (CFBRSDS) were also included in the empirical experiment. CFBSS obtains the highest forecasting accuracy and the second-best forecasting stability. The empirical results demonstrate the superior forecasting performance of our method in terms of accuracy and stability.

Modeling of Strength of High Performance Concrete with Artificial Neural Network and Mahalanobis Distance Outlier Detection Method (신경망 이론과 Mahalanobis Distance 이상치 탐색방법을 이용한 고강도 콘크리트 강도 예측 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Jung-Eui
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.33 no.4
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    • pp.122-129
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    • 2010
  • High-performance concrete (HPC) is a new terminology used in concrete construction industry. Several studies have shown that concrete strength development is determined not only by the water-to-cement ratio but also influenced by the content of other concrete ingredients. HPC is a highly complex material, which makes modeling its behavior a very difficult task. This paper aimed at demonstrating the possibilities of adapting artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the comprresive strength of HPC. Mahalanobis Distance (MD) outlier detection method used for the purpose increase prediction ability of ANN. The detailed procedure of calculating Mahalanobis Distance (MD) is described. The effects of outlier compared with before and after artificial neural network training. MD outlier detection method successfully removed existence of outlier and improved the neural network training and prediction performance.

Design of the Optimal Fuzzy Prediction Systems using RCGKA (RCGKA를 이용한 최적 퍼지 예측 시스템 설계)

  • Bang, Young-Keun;Shim, Jae-Son;Lee, Chul-Heui
    • Journal of Industrial Technology
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    • v.29 no.B
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    • pp.9-15
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    • 2009
  • In the case of traditional binary encoding technique, it takes long time to converge the optimal solutions and brings about complexity of the systems due to encoding and decoding procedures. However, the ROGAs (real-coded genetic algorithms) do not require these procedures, and the k-means clustering algorithm can avoid global searching space. Thus, this paper proposes a new approach by using their advantages. The proposed method constructs the multiple predictors using the optimal differences that can reveal the patterns better and properties concealed in non-stationary time series where the k-means clustering algorithm is used for data classification to each predictor, then selects the best predictor. After selecting the best predictor, the cluster centers of the predictor are tuned finely via RCGKA in secondary tuning procedure. Therefore, performance of the predictor can be more enhanced. Finally, we verifies the prediction performance of the proposed system via simulating typical time series examples.

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Excitation Enhancement Based on a Selective-Band Harmonic Model for Low-Bit-Rate Code-Excited Linear Prediction Coders (저전송률 코드여기 선형 예측 부호화기를 위한 선택적 대역 하모닉 모델 기반 여기신호 개선 알고리즘)

  • Lee, Mi-Suk;Kim, Hong-Kook;Choi, Seung-Ho;Kim, Do-Young
    • Speech Sciences
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.259-269
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    • 2004
  • In this paper, we propose a new excitation enhancement technique to improve the speech quality of low bit-rate code-excited linear prediction (CELP) coders. The proposed technique is based on a harmonic model and it is employed only in the decoding process of speech coders without any additional bits. We develop the procedure of harmonic model parameter estimation and harmonic generation, and apply this technique to a current state-of-the-art low bit rate speech coder, ITU-T G.729 Annex D. Also, its performance is measured by using the ITU-T P.862 PESQ score and compared to those of the phase dispersion filter and the long-term postfilter applied to the decoded excitation. It is shown that the proposed excitation enhancement technique can improve the quality of decoded speech and provide better quality for male speech than other techniques.

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A prediction method of ice breaking resistance using a multiple regression analysis

  • Cho, Seong-Rak;Lee, Sungsu
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.7 no.4
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    • pp.708-719
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    • 2015
  • The two most important tasks of icebreakers are first to secure a sailing route by breaking the thick sea ice and second to sail efficiently herself for purposes of exploration and transportation in the polar seas. The resistance of icebreakers is a priority factor at the preliminary design stage; not only must their sailing efficiency be satisfied, but the design of the propulsion system will be directly affected. Therefore, the performance of icebreakers must be accurately calculated and evaluated through the use of model tests in an ice tank before construction starts. In this paper, a new procedure is developed, based on model tests, to estimate a ship's ice breaking resistance during continuous ice-breaking in ice. Some of the factors associated with crushing failures are systematically considered in order to correctly estimate her ice-breaking resistance. This study is intended to contribute to the improvement of the techniques for ice resistance prediction with ice breaking ships.