• Journal of KIISE:Information Networking
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• v.34 no.3
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• pp.156-167
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• 2007

In this paper, we develop the model based prediction algorithm for Variable-Bit-Rate(VBR) video traffic with regular Group of Picture(GOP) pattern. We use multiplicative ARIMA process called GOP ARIMA (ARIMA for Group Of Pictures) as a base stochastic model. Kalman Filter based prediction algorithm consists of two process: GOP ARIMA modeling and prediction. In performance study, we produce three video traces (news, drama, sports) and we compare the accuracy of three different prediction schemes: Kalman Filter based prediction, linear prediction, and double exponential smoothing. The proposed prediction algorithm yields superior prediction accuracy than the other two. We also show that confidence interval analysis can effectively detect scene changes of the sample video sequence. The Kalman filter based prediction algorithm proposed in this work makes significant contributions to various aspects of network traffic engineering and resource allocation.

• ETRI Journal
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.227-237
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• 2008

In this paper, an algorithm that provides absolute and proportional differentiation of packet delays is proposed with the objective of enhancing quality of service in future packet networks. It features an adaptive scheme that adjusts the target delay for every time slot to compensate the deviation from the target delay, which is caused by prediction error on the traffic to arrive at the next time slot. It predicts the traffic to arrive at the beginning of a time slot and measures the actual arrived traffic at the end of the time slot. The difference between them is utilized by the delay control operation for the next time slot to offset it. Because the proposed algorithm compensates the prediction error continuously, it shows superior adaptability to bursty traffic and exponential traffic. Through simulations we demonstrate that the algorithm meets the quantitative delay bounds and is robust to traffic fluctuation in comparison with the conventional non-adaptive mechanism. The algorithm is implemented with VHDL on a Xilinx Spartan XC3S1500 FPGA, and the performance is verified under the test board based on the XPC860P CPU.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.51-62
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• 2022

AI-based speed prediction studies have been conducted quite actively. However, while the importance of explainable AI is emerging, the study of interpreting and reasoning the AI-based speed predictions has not been carried out much. Therefore, in this paper, 'Explainable Deep Graph Neural Network (GNN)' is devised to analyze the speed prediction and assess the nearby road influence for reasoning the critical contributions to a given road situation. The model's output was explained by comparing the differences in output before and after masking the input values of the GNN model. Using TOPIS traffic speed data, we applied our GNN models for the major congested roads in Seoul. We verified our approach through a traffic flow simulation by adjusting the most influential nearby roads' speed and observing the congestion's relief on the road of interest accordingly. This is meaningful in that our approach can be applied to the transportation network and traffic flow can be improved by controlling specific nearby roads based on the inference results.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• v.11 no.1
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• pp.30-44
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• 2013

Traffic congestion has become a serious problem with the recent exponential increase in the number of vehicles. In urban areas, almost all traffic congestion occurs at intersections. One of the ways to solve this problem is road expansion, but it is difficult to realize in urban areas because of the high cost and long construction period. In such cases, traffic signal control is a reasonable method for reducing traffic jams. In an actual situation, the traffic flow changes randomly and its randomness makes the control of traffic signals difficult. A prediction of traffic jams is, therefore, necessary and effective for reducing traffic jams. In addition, an autonomous distributed (stand-alone) point control of each traffic light individually is better than the wide and/or line control of traffic lights from the perspective of real-time control. This paper describes a stochastic optimum control of crossroads and multi-way traffic signals. First, a stochastic model of traffic flows and traffic jams is constructed by using a Bayesian network. Secondly, the probabilistic distributions of the traffic flows are estimated by using a cellular automaton, and then the probabilistic distributions of traffic jams are predicted. Thirdly, optimum traffic signals of crossroads and multi-way intersection are searched by using a modified particle swarm optimization algorithm to realize real-time traffic control. Finally, simulations are carried out to confirm the effectiveness of the real-time stochastic optimum control of traffic signals.

• Journal of Communications and Networks
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• v.13 no.6
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• pp.621-624
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• 2011

With the rapid growth of internet traffic, accurate and reliable prediction of internet traffic has been a key issue in network management and planning. This paper proposes an autoregressive-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (AR-GARCH) error model for forecasting internet traffic and evaluates its performance by comparing it with seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) criterion. The results indicated that the seasonal AR-GARCH models outperformed the seasonal ARIMA models in terms of forecasting accuracy with respect to the RMSE criterion.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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• v.13 no.4
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• pp.765-773
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• 2009

Currently Telematics traffic information services have been various because we can collect real-time traffic information through Intelligent Transport System. In this paper, we proposed and implemented a short-term traffic information prediction model for giving to guarantee the traffic information with high quality in the near future. A Short-term prediction model is for forecasting traffic flows of each segment in the near future. Our prediction model gives an average speed on the each segment from 5 minutes later to 60 minutes later. We designed a Bayesian network for each segment with some casual nodes which makes an impact to the road situation in the future and found out its joint probability density function on the supposition of GMM(Gaussian Mixture Model) using EM(Expectation Maximization) algorithm with training real-time traffic data. To validate the precision of our prediction model we had conducted various experiments with real-time traffic data and computed RMSE(Root Mean Square Error) between a real speed and its prediction speed. As the result, our model gave 4.5, 4.8, 5.2 as an average value of RMSE about 10, 30, 60 minutes later, respectively.

• The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.68-80
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• 2016

This study proposes the traffic prediction and optimal traffic control system based on cell transmission model and genetic algorithm in cloud environment. The proposed prediction and control system consists of four parts. 1) Data preprocessing module detects and imputes the corrupted data and missing data points. 2) Data-driven traffic prediction module predicts the future traffic state using Multi-level K-Nearest Neighbor (MK-NN) Algorithm with stored historical data in SQL database. 3) Online traffic simulation module simulates the future traffic state in various situations including accident, road work, and extreme weather condition with predicted traffic data by MK-NN. 4) Optimal road control module produces the control strategy for large road network with cell transmission model and genetic algorithm. The results show that proposed system can effectively reduce the Vehicle Hours Traveled upto 60%.

• The Magazine of the IEIE
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• v.28 no.11
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• pp.79.1-79
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• 2001

• The Transactions of the Korea Information Processing Society
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• v.7 no.10
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• pp.3195-3200
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• 2000

this paper is a stucy onthe preductionof multi-media traffic flow for the realizationof optimum ATM congestion control. In ATM network it is expected that the characteristic of multi-media traffic flow is varied slowly with a time. Fjor the simulation, time-variable multi-media traffic is penerated using possion distribution(connect calls per process time).\, gamma distribution(transmission rate per a call) and exponential distribution(holding time per a call). And using back-propagation neural netwok and proposed tripple neural network, the simulation to predict generaed traffic is executed. From the result,it's capability is shown that the proposed neural network model can be used in the predictionof ATM traffic flow.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• v.23 no.8
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• pp.95-100
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• 2023

Due to Traffic accidents people faces health and economical casualties around the world. As the population increases vehicles on road increase which leads to congestion in cities. Congestion can lead to increasing accident risks due to the expansion in transportation systems. Modern cities are adopting various technologies to minimize traffic accidents by predicting mathematically. Traffic accidents cause economical casualties and potential death. Therefore, to ensure people's safety, the concept of the smart city makes sense. In a smart city, traffic accident factors like road condition, light condition, weather condition etcetera are important to consider to predict traffic accident severity. Several machine learning models can significantly be employed to determine and predict traffic accident severity. This research paper illustrated the performance of a hybridized neural network and compared it with other machine learning models in order to measure the accuracy of predicting traffic accident severity. Dataset of city Leeds, UK is being used to train and test the model. Then the results are being compared with each other. Particle Swarm optimization with artificial neural network (PSO-ANN) gave promising results compared to other machine learning models like Random Forest, Naïve Bayes, Nearest Centroid, K Nearest Neighbor Classification. PSO- ANN model can be adopted in the transportation system to counter traffic accident issues. The nearest centroid model gave the lowest accuracy score whereas PSO-ANN gave the highest accuracy score. All the test results and findings obtained in our study can provide valuable information on reducing traffic accidents.