• Title/Summary/Keyword: natural disaster mitigation

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Development of a Short-term Rainfall Forecasting Model Using Weather Radar Data (기상레이더 자료를 이용한 단시간 강우예측모형 개발)

  • Kim, Gwang-Seob; Kim, Jong-Pil
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.10
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    • pp.1023-1034
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    • 2008
  • The size and frequency of the natural disaster related to the severe storms are increased for recent decades in all over the globe. The damage from natural disasters such as typhoon, storm and local severe rainfall is very serious in Korea since they are concentrated on summer season. These phenomena will be more frequent in the future because of the impact of climate change related to increment of $CO_2$ concentration and the global warming. To reduce the damage from severe storms, a short-range precipitation forecasting model using a weather radar was developed. The study was conducted as following four tasks: conversion three-dimensional radar data to two-dimensional CAPPI(Constant Altitude Plan Position Indicator) efficiently, prediction of motion direction and velocity of a weather system, estimation of two-dimensional rainfall using operational calibration. Results demonstrated that two-dimensional estimation using weather radar is useful to analyze the spatial characteristics of local storms. If the precipitation forecasting system is linked to the flood prediction system, it should contribute the flood management and the mitigation of flood damages.

A comparison of three performance-based seismic design methods for plane steel braced frames

  • Kalapodis, Nicos A.;Papagiannopoulos, George A.;Beskos, Dimitri E.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.27-44
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    • 2020
  • This work presents a comparison of three performance-based seismic design methods (PBSD) as applied to plane steel frames having eccentric braces (EBFs) and buckling restrained braces (BRBFs). The first method uses equivalent modal damping ratios (ξk), referring to an equivalent multi-degree-of-freedom (MDOF) linear system, which retains the mass, the elastic stiffness and responds in the same way as the original non-linear MDOF system. The second method employs modal strength reduction factors (${\bar{q}}_k$) resulting from the corresponding modal damping ratios. Contrary to the behavior factors of code based design methods, both ξk and ${\bar{q}}_k$ account for the first few modes of significance and incorporate target deformation metrics like inter-storey drift ratio (IDR) and local ductility as well as structural characteristics like structural natural period, and soil types. Explicit empirical expressions of ξk and ${\bar{q}}_k$, recently presented by the present authors elsewhere, are also provided here for reasons of completeness and easy reference. The third method, developed here by the authors, is based on a hybrid force/displacement (HFD) seismic design scheme, since it combines the force-base design (FBD) method with the displacement-based design (DBD) method. According to this method, seismic design is accomplished by using a behavior factor (qh), empirically expressed in terms of the global ductility of the frame, which takes into account both non-structural and structural deformation metrics. These expressions for qh are obtained through extensive parametric studies involving non-linear dynamic analysis (NLDA) of 98 frames, subjected to 100 far-fault ground motions that correspond to four soil types of Eurocode 8. Furthermore, these factors can be used in conjunction with an elastic acceleration design spectrum for seismic design purposes. Finally, a comparison among the above three seismic design methods and the Eurocode 8 method is conducted with the aid of non-linear dynamic analyses via representative numerical examples, involving plane steel EBFs and BRBFs.

Analyzing the drought event in 2015 through statistical drought frequency analysis (통계학적 가뭄빈도분석 기법을 통한 2015년 가뭄사상에 대한 분석)

  • Lee, Taesam;Son, Chanyoung
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.49 no.3
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    • pp.177-186
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    • 2016
  • Drought is a water-related natural disaster which can be simply described as spatially and temporally sequential absence of water. However, its characteristics are very difficult to define. For this reason, the preparation and mitigation from drought events have not been successful. In the current study, we illustrated a design drought estimation approach of water resources infrastructures as well as the existing theoretical one to prepare and mitigate drought disasters. Theoretical and simulation methods were tested including three time series models such as autoregressive (AR), Gamma AR, Copula AR models. The results indicated that for South Korea region, the simulation-based method to estimate drought frequency presented better performance and all the three time series models show similar performance to each other. The current drought event occurring in South Korea was investigated with dividing South Korea into four basins as Han River, Nakdong River, Geum River, and Nakdong River basins. The results showed that two middle and north basins presented significant drought events with 3 year drought duration and around 40 year return period while the other two southern regions illustrated relatively weaker drought events.

DEM Based Urban Inundation Analysis Model Linked with SWMM (SWMM을 연계한 DEM기반의 도시침수해석 모형)

  • Lee, Chang-Hee;Han, Kun-Yeun;Choi, Kyu-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.39 no.5 s.166
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    • pp.441-452
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    • 2006
  • Recently the natural damage associated with flood disaster has been dramatically increased. Especially, inundation in the urban area causes serious damage to people and assets because of the concentration of infrastructure and population growth. The purpose of this study is to develop a new urban inundation model combining a storm sewer system model and a 2D overland-flow model for the estimation inundation depth In urban area caused by the surcharge of storm sewers. The movement of water in the studied urban watershed is characterized by two components, namely, the storm sewer flow component and the surcharge-induced inundation component. The model was applied to Goonja and Jangan catchments. Inundated depths were presented to demonstrate model simulation results. The simulation results can help the authority decide preventing flood damages by redesigning and enlarging the capacities of storm sewer systems in the inundation-prone areas. The model can also be applied to make the potential inundation area map and establish flood-mitigation measures as a part of the decision support system for flood control authority.

Development of Urban Flood Analysis Model Adopting the Unstructured Computational Grid (비정형격자기반 도시침수해석모형 개발)

  • Lee, Chang Hee;Han, Kun Yeun;Kim, Ji Sung
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.26 no.5B
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    • pp.511-517
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    • 2006
  • Flood damage is one of the most important and influential natural disaster which has an effect on human beings. Local concentrated heavy rainfall in urban area yields flood damage increase due to insufficient capacity of drainage system. When the excessive flood occurs in urban area, it yields huge property losses of public facilities involving roadway inundation to paralyze industrial and transportation system of the city. To prevent such flood damages in urban area, it is necessary to develop adequate inundation analysis model which can consider complicated geometry of urban area and artificial drainage system simultaneously. In this study, an urban flood analysis model adopting the unstructured computational grid was developed to simulate the urban flood characteristics such as inundation area, depth and integrated with subsurface drainage network systems. By the result, we can make use of these presented method to find a flood hazard area and to make a flodd evacuation map. The model can also establish flood-mitigation measures as a part of the decision support system for flood control authority.

Detection and Monitoring of Multi Natural Disaster Considering on Heatwave and Drought (폭염 및 가뭄을 고려한 복합자연재해 감지 및 모니터링)

  • Lee, Hee-Jin;Nam, Won-Ho;Jeon, Min-Gi;Svoboda, Mark D.
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.311-311
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    • 2022
  • 전 세계적으로 기후변화 및 산업화로 인해 대규모 홍수, 가뭄, 폭염, 산불 등의 재해가 빈번하게 발생하고 있으며, 이러한 재해 및 재난을 조기에 발견하고 최소화를 위한 대응 체계 및 관리방안의 필요성이 증대되고 있다. 이러한 자연재해들의 특징은 추가 재해를 유발할 수 있다는 것으로 재해의 강도가 증가할 뿐만 아니라 여러 가지 재난 및 재해를 동시에 유발하는 형태로 변화하기 때문에, 단일자연재해 평가 기술을 바탕으로 복합자연재해에 대한 분석 및 감지가 진행되어야 한다. 최근 기후변화로 인한 기상 패턴의 변화 및 가뭄 발생빈도의 증가가 뚜렷하며, 국외에서는 폭염과 가뭄을 고려한 복합자연재해로 'Flash Drought'로 정의된 돌발가뭄에 대한 연구가 이루어지고 있다. 폭염과 가뭄은 단순 강우 부족으로 인한 가뭄, 높은 기온으로 인한 폭염 등이 서로 독립적으로 발생하는 경우와 강우부족과 폭염의 지속으로 인한 상호연관성이 존재하는 복합자연재해 등으로 구분할 수 있다. 돌발가뭄은 강수 부족 또는 폭염이 지속되거나 강도가 높아질 경우, 지면온도가 상승하여 토양수분이 필요 이상으로 증발하여 단기간에 발생하는 초단기 가뭄으로 복합자연재해에 해당하며, 이러한 돌발가뭄은 농업분야에서 작물 생장 및 영농기 활동에 큰 영향을 미치기 때문에 모니터링 및 감지 기술이 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 수문기상학적 요소를 활용하여 폭염 및 가뭄을 고려한 복합자연재해에 대한 상관분석을 수행하였다. 기상청에서 제공하는 기상자료(일최고기온/평균기온/최저기온, 강수량, 상대습도, 일조량 등)에 대한 전국 76개소 대상 기상자료를 구축하였으며, Sentinel, Landsat, MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) 등과 같은 위성영상 자료를 구축하여 폭염과 가뭄에 대한 각각의 인자를 선정하고 상관 관계를 분석하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 복합자연재해 감지 및 예측 기술 개발에 활용하여 재해 예방 및 대응에 대한 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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A constrained minimization-based scheme against susceptibility of drift angle identification to parameters estimation error from measurements of one floor

  • Kangqian Xu;Akira Mita;Dawei Li;Songtao Xue;Xianzhi Li
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.119-131
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    • 2024
  • Drift angle is a significant index for diagnosing post-event structures. A common way to estimate this drift response is by using modal parameters identified under natural excitations. Although the modal parameters of shear structures cannot be identified accurately in the real environment, the identification error has little impact on the estimation when measurements from several floors are used. However, the estimation accuracy falls dramatically when there is only one accelerometer. This paper describes the susceptibility of single sensor identification to modelling error and simulations that preliminarily verified this characteristic. To make a robust evaluation from measurements of one floor of shear structures based on imprecisely identified parameters, a novel scheme is devised to approximately correct the mode shapes with respect to fictitious frequencies generated with a genetic algorithm; in particular, the scheme uses constrained minimization to take both the mathematical aspect and the realistic aspect of the mode shapes into account. The algorithm was validated by using a full-scale shear building. The differences between single-sensor and multiple-sensor estimations were analyzed. It was found that, as the number of accelerometers decreases, the error rises due to insufficient data and becomes very high when there is only one sensor. Moreover, when measurements for only one floor are available, the proposed method yields more precise and appropriate mode shapes, leading to a better estimation on the drift angle of the lower floors compared with a method designed for multiple sensors. As well, it is shown that the reduction in space complexity is offset by increasing the computation complexity.

A Comparison on the Identification of Landslide Hazard using Geomorphological Characteristics (지형특성을 활용한 산사태 위험도 판단을 위한 비교)

  • Cha, Areum
    • Journal of the Korean GEO-environmental Society
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.67-73
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    • 2014
  • Landslide disasters including debris flows are the one of the most frequent natural disasters in Korea, and losses of lives and property damages due to these catastrophic events have been increased every year. Various mitigation programs and related policies have been conducted in order to respond and prepare landslide disasters. Most landslide reduction programs are, however, focused on recovery actions after the disasters and lead to unrealistic consequences to the affected people and their properties. The main objective of this study, therefore, is to evaluate the landslide hazard based on the identification of geomorphological features, which is for the preparedness of the landslide disasters. Two methodologies, SINMAP and vector dispersion analyses are used to simulate those characteristics where landslides are actually located. Results showed that both methods well discriminate geomorphic features between stable and unstable domains. This proves that geomorphological characteristics well describe a relationship with the existing landslide hazard. SINMAP analysis which is based on the consecutive model considering external factors like infiltration is well identify the landslide hazard especially for debris flow type landslides rather than vector dispersion focusing on a specific area. Combining with other methods focusing specific characteristics of geomorphological feature, accurate landslide hazard assessments are implemented.

Probable annual maximum of daily snowfall using improved probability distribution (개선된 확률밀도함수 적용을 통한 빈도별 적설심 산정)

  • Park, Heeseong;Chung, Gunhui
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.53 no.4
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    • pp.259-271
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    • 2020
  • In Korea, snow damage has happened in the region with little snowfalls in history. Also, accidental damage was caused by heavy snow leads and the public interest on heavy snow has been increased. Therefore, policy about the Natural Disaster Reduction Comprehensive Plan has been changed to include the mitigation measures of snow damage. However, since heavy snow damage was not frequent, studies on snowfall have not been conducted on different points. The characteristics of snow data commonly are not the same as the rainfall data. Some southern coastal areas in Korea are snowless during the year. Therefore, a joint probability distribution was suggested to analyze the snow data with many 0s in a previous research and fitness from the joint probability distribution was higher than the conventional methods. In this study, snow frequency analysis was implemented using the joint probability distribution and compared to the design codes. The results were compared to the design codes. The results of this study can be used as the basic data to develop a procedure for the snow frequency analysis in the future.

Impact Assessment of Climate Change on Drought Risk (기후변화가 가뭄 위험성에 미치는 영향 평가)

  • Kim, Byung-Sik;Kwon, Hyun-Han;Kim, Hung-Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2011
  • A chronic drought stress has been imposed during non-rainy season(from winter to spring) since 1990s. We faced the most significant water crisis in 2001, and the drought was characterized by sultry weather and severe drought on a national scale. It has been widely acknowledged that the drought related damage is 2-3 times serious than floods. In the list of the world's largest natural disaster compiled by NOAA, 4 of the top 5 disasters are droughts. And according to the analysis from the NDMC report, the drought has the highest annual average damage among all the disasters. There was a very serious impact on the economic such as rising consumer price during the 2001 spring drought in Korea. There has been flood prevention measures implemented at national-level but for mitigation of droughts, there are only plans aimed at emergency (short-term) restoration rather than the comprehensive preventive measures. In addition, there is a lack of a clear set of indicators to express drought situation objectively, and therefore it is important and urgent to begin a systematic study. In this study, a nonstationary downscaling model using RCM based climate change scenario was first applied to simulate precipitation, and the simulated precipitation data was used to derive Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI under climate change was used to evaluate the spatio-temporal variability of drought through principal component analysis at three different time scales which are 2015, 2045 and 2075. It was found that spatio-temporal variability is likely to modulate with climate change.