• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.15
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• pp.6327-6332
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• 2014

National cancer registration reports provide a huge potential for identifying patterns and trends of important policy, research, prevention and treatment significance. As summary reports written on an annual basis, the China Cancer Registry Annual Reports (CCRARs) fall short from fully addressing their potential. This paper attempts to explore part of the patterns and trends hidden behind published CCRARs. It extracted data for cancer incidence rates (IRs) and mortality rates (MRs) for 2004, 2006 and 2009 from relevant CCRARs and portrayed 4 kinds of indicators in line graphs. The study showed that: a) all of the line graphs of age-specific IRs and MRs characterized typical "growth curves or histogram"; b) graphs of IRs and MRs for males and urban areas had higher peaks than that for females and rural regions; c) most of the line graphs of IR/MR ratios comprised a starting peak, a secondary peak and a decreasing tail and the secondary peaks for females and urban areas were higher than those for males and rural areas; d) most of the urban versus rural IR ratios valued above one, but most the urban versus rural MR ratios, below one; e) the accumulative IRs and MRs showed a stable increasing trend from 2004 to 2009 for urban areas, but mixed for rural regions.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.2 no.1
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• pp.61-76
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• 1969

A review has been made of mortality trends in Korea from 1958 to 1967 analyzing the data by sex, age and cause of death. The crude death rates and age specific death rates were estimated by the model of N. Keyfitz life table which had been developed by the data of the 1960's national census. The cause specific death rates shown in this article are based on the following: all deaths occurring in the death-registration are expressed as a numberator, while the denominator was estimated from the regular national census data by interpolation method. It is estimated that only an average of about 40% of deaths which occurred during a year were registered during 1958 to 1967. The validity and the reliability of the diagnosis of causes of death seem to be extremely poor in this country. Therefore the cause specific death rates in this article are aimed to reveal trends of causes of registered death ana not for the actual level of death rates. For 10 years very interesing mortality trends were observed : 1. The trend in the crude death rates was downward slowly. 2. The estimated death rate for the infant in 1960 was still high up to 100 per 1,000. 3. The rates for mortality attributed to such infectious diseases as pneumonia, bronchitis, gastroenteritis and measles decreased an average 40-60%. 4. The death rates for over-all tuberculosis decreased only 9.8%. 90% of the decrease was contributed by those in the less-than-15 year age group. 5. The death rates for chronic diseases, such as vascular diseases affecting the central nervous system, malignant neoplasm, major heart diseases and all accidents rose about 40-60%. 6. The rank order of the 10 leading causes of death showed large changes over the years, except for pneumonia and tuberculosis which occupyed 1st and 2nd places respectively. Vascular diseases affecting the central nervous system moved from 5th to 3rd place and malignant neoplasm from 6th to 4th place, The major heart diseases moved from 10th to 6th place and all accidents from 10th to 7th place. On tile other hand, gastroenteritis moved from 3rd to 5th place and influenja from 4th to 8th place.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.2067-2070
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• 2013

Background/Aim: Stomach cancer is the second most common cause of death from all malignant tumors in the world (third in men, fifth in women), with a strong decreasing trend in most developed countries. The aim of this descriptive epidemiological study was to analyze mortality of stomach cancer in Serbia, excluding the Province of Kosovo, in the 1991-2009 period. Materials and Methods: In data analysis, we used mortality rates which were standardized directly using those of the world population as a standard. In order to analyze the mortality trend from stomach cancer, linear trend and regression analysis were used. Confidence intervals (CIs) for the average age-adjusted and age-specific mortality rates were assessed with 95% level of probability. Mortality data were derived from the data file of the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Results: During the 1991-2009 period, a significant downward trend in mortality of stomach cancer was recorded in Serbia (y=9.78 - 0.13x, p=0.000; average annual percent change was -6.3 (95%CI, -7.8 to - 4.8). During the same period, a significant decrease in mortality trend was found both in male (y=14.13 - 0.20x; p=0.000; % change was -7.7 (95%CI, -10.9 to -4.5) and female populations (y=6.27 - 0.08x; p=0.000; % change was - 4.4 (95%CI, -5.3 to -3.6). Conclusion: Decreasing trends in mortality from stomach cancer in Serbia are similar to those in most developed countries.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.17
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• pp.7991-7995
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• 2015

Background: To identify the epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer mortality in China during the period of 1991-2011, and forecast the future five-year trend. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for colorectal cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe epidemiological characteristics in terms of age group, gender, and rural/urban residence. Trend surface analysis was performed to analyze the geographical distribution of colorectal cancer. Four models including curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling and joinpoint regression were applied to forecast the trends for the future five years. Results: Since 1991 the colorectal cancer mortality rate increased yearly, and our results showed that the trend would continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate in males was higher than that of females and the rate in urban areas was higher than in rural areas. The mortality rate was relatively low for individuals less than 60 years of age, but increased dramatically afterwards. People living in the northeastern China provinces or in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for colorectal cancer than those living in middle or western China provinces. Conclusions: The steadily increasing mortality of colorectal cancer in China will become a substantial public health burden in the foreseeable future. For this increasing trend to be controlled, further efforts should concentrate on educating the general public to increase prevention and early detection by screening. More effective prevention and management strategies are needed in higher mortality areas (Eastern parts of China) and high-risk populations (60+ years old).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.16 no.15
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• pp.6795-6798
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• 2015

Breast cancer incidence and mortality in Kazakhstan are considered to be increasing but exact statistics have hitherto been lacking. The present study was therefore undertaken to retrospectively assess data for the whole country, accessed from the central registration office, for the period 1999-2013. Age standardized data for incidence and mortality were generated and compared across age groups. It was determined that during the studied period 45,891 new cases of breast cancer were registered and 20,122 women died of this pathology. Average breast cancer incidence and mortality were $37.9{\pm}1.10/10^5$ and $16.7{\pm}0.20/10^5$ respectively, and the overall ratio of mortality/incidence (M/I) was 0.44. Incidence tended to increase (T = + 2.3%), and mortality to decrease (T of =-0.3%). Peaks of incidence and mortality were noted in those aged 60-74 years and 75-84, respectively. Particularly high incidences were established in large cities of Kazakhstan, Astana ($46.8{\pm}1.80/10^5$) and Almaty ($49.7{\pm}1.30/10^5$), and high mortality was observed in the Pavlodar region ($17.9{\pm}0.60/10^5$) and Almaty city ($20.1{\pm}0.40/10^5$). Considerable variation in the mortality/incidence ratio was noted, suggesting the need for more stress on access to screening and clinical care in some regions of the country.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.17 no.sup3
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• pp.11-15
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• 2016

Gastrointestinal cancers remain the most prevalent cancers in many developing countries such as Iran. The aim of this study was to estimate incidence, prevalence and mortality, as well as time trends for gastrointestinal cancers in Isfahan province of Iran for the period 2001 to 2010 and to project these estimates to the year 2020. Estimates were driven by applying the MIAMOD method (a backward calculation approach using mortality and relative survival rates). Mortality data were obtained from the Ministry of Health and the relative survival rate for all gastrointestinal cancers combined was derived from the Eurocare 3 study. Results indicated that there were clear upward trends in age adjusted incidence (males 22.9 to 74.2 and females 14.9 to 44.2), prevalence (males 52.6 to 177.7 and females 38.3 to 111.03), and mortality (males 14.6 to 47.2 and females 9.6 to 28.2) rates per 100,000 for the period of 2001 to 2010 and this upward state would persist for the projected period. For the entire period, the male to female ratio increased slightly for all parameters (incidence rate increased from 1.5 to 1.7, prevalence from 1.4 to 1.6, and mortality from 1.5 to 1.7). In males, totals of 2,179 incident cases, 5,097 prevalent cases and 1,398 mortality cases were predicated to occur during the study period. For females the predicted figures were 1,379, 3,190 and 891, respectively. It was concluded that the upward trend of incidence alongside increase in survival rates would induce a high burden on the health care infrastructure in the province of Isfahan in the future.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.22
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• pp.9899-9903
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• 2014

Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is an uncommon disease in most countries but occurs with much greater frequency in southern China. This study aimed to examine the secular trends of NPC in urban Guangzhou over the time period of 2000-2011 using data from the Guangzhou Cancer Registry. Age-adjusted annual incidence rates of NPC were calculated by the direct method using the WHO World Standard Population (1960) as the reference. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used as an estimate of the trend. A total of 7,532 new cases of NPC and 3,449 related deaths were registered. In both genders, the peak incidence occurred in the 50- to 59-year age group, and this age distribution pattern remained similar throughout. The AAPC in NPC incidence rates was -3.26% (95% CI: -5.4%--1.1) for males and -5.74% (95% CI: -8.9%--2.5) for females, resulting in a total decrease of 39.3% (from 22.14 to 13.44 per 100,000 population) for males and 48.6% (from 10.1 to 5.18 per 100,000 population) for females over this 12-year period. The AAPCs in NPC mortality rates were -4.62% (95%CI: -3.5%--5.7) for males and -6.75% (95% CI: -5.2%--8.3) for females, resulting in a total decrease of -46.1% (from 12.1 to 6.54 per 100,000 population) for males and 51.7% (from 4.14 to 2.00 per 100,000 population) for females. The age-adjusted incidence and mortality rates of NPC declined during 2000-2011 in urban Guangzhou but remained high. Future efforts to improve prevention, early detection and treatment strategies are needed.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• v.15 no.6
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• pp.2785-2791
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• 2014

Aims: To analyze time-dependent changes in female breast cancer (BC) mortality in China, forecast the trend in the ensuing 5 years, and provide recommendations for prevention and management. Materials and Methods: Mortality data of breast cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe characteristics and distribution, such as the changes of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of mortality. In addition, curve estimation, time series modeling, Gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression were performed to estimate and predict future trends. Results: In China, the mortality rate of breast cancer has increased yearly since 1991. In addition, our data predicted that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. Rates in urban areas are higher than those in rural areas. Over the past decade, all peak ages for death by breast cancer have been delayed, with the first death peak occurring at 55 to 65 years of age in urban and rural areas. Geographical analysis indicated that mortality rates increased from Southwest to Northeast and from West to East. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of breast cancer in China is rising and the upward trend is predicted to continue for the next 5 years. Since this can cause an enormous health impact in China, much better prevention and management of breast cancer is needed. Consequently, disease control centers in China should place more focus on the northeastern, eastern and southeastern parts of China for breast cancer prevention and management, and the key population should be among women between ages 55 to 65, especially those in urban communities.

• Korea journal of population studies
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• v.8 no.2
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• pp.46-67
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• 1985

In this paper, an attempt has been made to examine the pattern of mortality in Korea during 1970~80. By applying the age-sex specific mortality rates quoted from 1978~79 life tables for Korea published by NBOS, EPB to those of the West pattern of regional model life tables and the far eastern pattern of model life tables for developing countries, life expectancy at birth were calculated. Also the author reviewed the trends of death rates, life expectancy and cause of death using vital registration data and other materials. Summarized results are as follows; 1. Crude death rates in Korea was reduced to one fifth in the 1983 compared to that in 1920's. Life expectancy also improved to almost double in 1985 compared to 1920's. But the difference in the life expectancy between male and female increased during that period and it was recorded as 6.4 years in 1985. This discrepancy was mainly due to the different tempo of decreasing in mortality level by sex, particularly, for the age 40 and above. 2. For the pattern of mortality in Korea, it showed that female mortality could accounted closer to the West pattern model life tables. There were high similarity between actual pattern prevalent in Korea and West pattern. And its coefficient of variance was also very low. However for the case of male, it was difficult to find the exact model life tables for explaining the actual situation on the male mortality pattern which means exist considerable dissimilarity in older ages. The Far eastern pattern of U.N. model life tables show better results than West pattern, however, the deviation of the pattern to actual was severe. Also in Far eastern pattern, high coefficient of variance was existed. Furthermore it was found in the paper that the mortality level of Korean male for the age 40 and above were much higher than that of Far eastern pattern which was reflected the high mortality of the male adult in Far east region. 3. The analysis of cause of death showed that circulatory disease such as cerebrovascular disease and hypertensive disease accounted for the leading cause of death in Korea for the age 40 and above. There should he paid special attention to chronic retrogressive diseases for the older age groups. For younger age groups, injury and poisoning were reported as important cause of death.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.53 no.3
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• pp.198-204
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• 2020

Objectives: This study aimed to analyze the mortality of heart disease (HD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and cerebrovascular disease (CeVD) through an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. Methods: We used data on mortality due to cardiovascular disease from 1995 to 2018 in Japan, as determined by Vital Statistics. Age groups from 0 years to 99 years were defined by 5-year increments, and cohorts were defined for each age group of each year with a 1-year shift. We used Bayesian APC analysis to decompose the changes in the diseases' mortality rates into age, period, and cohort effects. Results: The period effects for all diseases decreased during the analyzed periods for both men and women. The cohort effects for men increased substantially in cohorts born from around 1940 to the 1970s for all types of cardiovascular diseases. The cohort effects of HD decreased in the cohorts born in the 1970s or later for both men and women. Regarding IHD and CeVD, either a non-increase or decrease of cohort effects was confirmed for cohorts born in the 1970s or later for men, but the effects for women showed a continuously increasing trend in the cohorts born in the 1960s or later. Conclusions: The cohort effects for IHD and CeVD showed increasing trends in younger generations of women. This suggests that preventive approaches against cardiovascular diseases are needed, particularly for women.