• Proceedings of the KOR-KST Conference
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• 1996.02a
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• pp.59-86
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• 1996

Current methods for evaluating unsignalized intersections, and estimating level-of-service (LOS) is determined from efficiency-based criteria such as little or no delay to very long delays. At present, similar procedures to evaluate intersections using safety-based criteria do not exist. The improvement of sight distances at intersections is the most effective way of improving intersection safety. However, a set of procedures is necessary to account for the limitations in current methodology. Such an approach would build upon such methods, but also account for: deficiencies in the current deterministic solution for the determination of intersection sight distances; opportunity for an accident and severity of an accident; and cost-effectiveness of attaining various levels of sight distances. In this research, a model that estimates the degree of safety at two-way stop-controlled intersections is described. Only crossing maneuvers are considered in this study because accidents caused by the crossing maneuvers are the dominate type among intersection accidents. Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the hazard at an intersection as a function of roadway features and traffic conditions. Driver`s minimum gap acceptance in the crossing vehicles and headway distribution on the major road are used in the crossing vehicles and headway distribution on the major road are used in the model to simulate the real intersectional maneuvers. Other random variables addressed in the model are: traffic speeds; preception-reaction times of both drivers in the crossing vehicles and drivers in oncoming vehicles on the major road; and vehicles on the major roads. The developed model produces the total number of conflicts per year per vehicle and total potential kinetic energy per year per vehicle dissipated during conflicts as measurements of safety at intersections. Based on the results from the developed simulation model, desirable sight distances for various speeds were determined as 350 feet, 450 feet and 550 feet for 40 mph, 50 mph and 60 mph prevailing speed on the major road, respectively. These values are seven to eight percent less than those values recommended by AASHTO. A safety based level-of-service (LOS) is also developed using the results of the simulation model. When the total number of conflicts per vehicle is less than 0.05 at an intersection, the LOS of the intersection is `A' and when the total number of conflicts per vehicle is larger than 0.25 at an intersection, the LOS is `F'. Similarly, when the total hazard per vehicle is less than 350, 000 1b-ft2/sec2, the LOS is `F'. Once evaluation of the current safety at the intersection is complete, a sensitivity analysis can be done by changing one or more input parameters. This will estimate the benefit in terms of time and budget of hazard reduction based upon improving geometric and traffic characteristics at the intersection. This method will also enable traffic engineers in local governments to generate a priority list of intersection improvement projects.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.25 no.2
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• pp.363-376
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• 2012

Excessive zeroes are often observed in ordinal categorical response variables. An ordinary ordered Probit model is not appropriate for zero-inflated data especially when there are many different sources of generating 0 observations. In this paper, we apply a two-stage zero-inflated ordered Probit (ZIOP) model which incorporate the zero-flated nature of data, propose a Bayesian analysis of a ZIOP model, and apply the method to alcohol consumption data collected by the National Bureau of Statistics, Korea. In the first stage of a ZIOP model, a Probit model is introduced to divide the non-drinkers into genuine non-drinkers who do not participate in drinking due to personal beliefs or permanent health problems and potential drinkers who did not drink at the time of the survey but have the potential to become drinkers. In the second stage, an ordered probit model is applied to drinkers that consists of zero-consumption potential drinkers and positive consumption drinkers. The analysis results show that about 30% of non-drinkers are genuine non-drinkers and hence the Korean alcohol consumption data has the feature of zero-inflated data. A study on the marginal effect of each explanatory variable shows that certain explanatory variables have effects on the genuine non-drinkers and potential drinkers in opposite directions, which may not be detected by an ordered Probit model.

• Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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• v.6 no.4
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• pp.137-152
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• 2011

The purpose of this study is to estimate efficiency of agricultural business corporations using Data Envelopment Analysis. A proposed method employs a bootstrapping approach to generate efficiency estimates through Monte Carlo simulation re-sampling process. The technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency measure of the corporations is 0.749 0.790, 0.948 respectively. Among the 692 agricultural business corporations, the number of Increasing Returns to Scale (IRS)-type corporations was analyzed to be 539(77.9%). The number of Constant Returns to Scale (CRS)-type corporations was 108(15.6%), and that of Decreasing Returns to Scale (DRS)-type corporations was 45(6.5%). Since an increase in input is lower than an increase in output in IRS, an increase in input factors such as new investments is required. The Tobit model suggests that the type of corporation, capital level, and period of operation affect the efficiency score more than others. The positive coefficient of capital level and period of operation variable indicates that efficiency score increases as capital level and period of operation increases.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• v.21 no.5
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• pp.16-26
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• 2017

In chemical industry plants, the raw material, intermediate and final products can leak from unstable joints of flanges and valves as well as cracks of storage tanks. From the safety and economic standpoints, it is very important to understand whether leaks or not and leakage rate. The OGI(optical gas image) technique can tell gas leakages, but cannot give the leakage rate. Some special OGI devices can show the kind of gas in different color concentration in different darkness. Therefore the research on quantification of OGI is necessary. In this research, we have developed the practical method to quantify OGI of methane leakage. To estimate 3-dimensional gas leakages distribution from 2-dimensional OGI, the Monte Carlo Probability technique was applied. First the number of points in the area of width(2.54 cm) and length(2.54 cm) in OGI was counted. Total no of each experiment was compared with the measured flow rate. The correlation average between total points and measured flow rate was found to be 0.980. Reversely we estimated the leakage rate of OGI by use of the correlation table. The results showed good agreement between the estimation value and the measured value.

• Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.423-428
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• 2015

To identify locations and causes of interference among parts of an indoor air-conditioning unit, a 3D tolerance analysis was performed and optimized with respect to assembly gaps and the tolerance of each part. The maximum value of the defect rate resulting from the tolerance analysis was found to be 72.6 at the assembly portion of the body and drain. The maximum displacement caused by the thermal deformation during a heating operation was calculated to be approximately 1 mm by using finite element analysis (FEA). Therefore, it is possible that an interference among the assembled parts occurs. The tolerance of the drain was modified by the results of the sensitivity analysis. As a result, the defect rate was greatly reduced to 0.03. Through the FEA results of the indoor air-conditioning unit, it was shown that the improved tolerance of the drain decreased the interference among the assembled parts even though thermal deformation occurs during operation.

• The Journal of Engineering Geology
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• v.26 no.4
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• pp.485-495
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• 2016

To reinforce and improve the soft ground under a breakwater while using materials efficiently, the replacement ratio and leaving periods of surcharge load are optimized probabilistically. The results of Bayesian updating of the random variables using prior information decrease uncertainty by up to 39.8%, and using prior information with more samples results in a sharp decrease in uncertainty. Replacement ratios of 15%-40% are analyzed using First Order Reliability Method and Monte Carlo simulation to optimize the replacement ratio. The results show that replacement ratios of 20% and 25% are acceptable at the column jet grouting area and the granular compaction pile area, respectively. Life cycle costs are also compared to optimize the replacement ratios within allowable ranges. The results show that a range of 20%-30% is the most economical during the total life cycle. This means that initial construction cost, maintenance cost and failure loss cost are minimized during total life cycle. Probabilistic analysis for leaving periods of shows that three months acceptable. Design optimization with respect to life cycle cost is important to minimize maintenance costs and retain the performance of the structures for the required period. Therefore, more case studies that consider the maintenance costs of soil structures are necessary to establish relevant design codes.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.14 no.6
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• pp.247-254
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• 2014

For the purpose of early diagnosis of the breast cancer, the attention on the screening mammography has been increasing-with supply of digital mammography day by day. Image quality is decided by target materials and filter combinations. Optimized selection by a glandular density and a thickness is needed, because these combinations change x-ray spectrum and effect to image quality. The purpose of this study is to find out optimized target and filter combinations through the evaluation of quantitative image quality and to suggest means which minimize patient dose through MCNPX. In results, spatial frequency resolution evaluation which is quantitative image quality evaluation method, MTF, NPS, DQE shows that we have to select Mo/Mo combinations or Mo/Rh combinations when compressed breast is thin. but in case of that when compressed breast is thick, we have to select Rh/Rh combinations or W /Rh combinations. In a comprehensive evaluation, W!Rh combinations which are not used in thin breasts in practice was superior to all image quality evaluation. This result is somewhat different-with clinical examination results. Secondary end point was organ dose evaluation, radiation dose of opposite breast was approximately 47 ~73% effectiveness when selecting standard breast. In conculsion, the most important point is that we have to select the optimal combinations-with considering dose evaluation and various thickness.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.197-203
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• 2017

This study purpose is propose the basic data for selecting the optimal target material by analyzing the photon characteristics of various materials which was located in the head of medical linear accelerator. In this study, energy spectrum of 6, 15 MV photon beams were compared and analyzed for 13 target materials using MCNPX of Monte Carlo method. The mean energy for the 6 MV energy spectrum was 1.69 ~ 1.84 MeV and that for the 15 MV was 3.38 ~ 3.56 MeV, according to the target material. The flux for the 6 MV energy spectrum was $1.64{\times}10^{-5}{\sim}1.80{\times}10^{-5}{\sharp}/cm^2/e$ and that for the 15 MV was $1.76{\times}10^{-4}{\sim}1.85{\times}10^{-4}{\sharp}/cm^2/e$. The analysis shows that the average energy and flux increase with higher atomic number of the target material. Based on this study, it is possible to present the basic data about the physical characteristics of the photon, and it will be possible to select the target later considering economic, efficiency and physical aspect.

• Economic and Environmental Geology
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• v.47 no.2
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• pp.121-131
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• 2014

The stability of rock slope is mainly controlled by the orientation and shear strength of discontinuties in rock mass. Therefore, in kinematic analysis, the orientation of the combination of discontinuities and slope face is examined to determine if certain modes of failure can be occurred. In previous kinematic analysis, a representative orientation of the slope face and mean orientation of discontinuity set were used as input parameters. However, since the orientations of slope face varies according to locations of measurement, the representative slope face orientation could cause misunderstanding for kinematic instability. In addition, since the orientations of each discontinuity are scattered in the same discontinuity set, there is the possibility that uncertainties are involved in the procedure of kinematic analysis. Therefore, in this study, the detailed digital topographic map was used to obtain the orientation of slope face. In addition, the probabilistic analysis approach was utilized to deal properly with the uncertainties in discontinuity orientation. The proposed approach was applied to steep slopes in mountain road located in Baehuryeong, Chunncheon city, Gangwon-Do. The analysis results obtained from the deterministic and probabilistic analysis were compared to check the feasibility of proposed the analysis.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Radiology
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• v.9 no.7
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• pp.459-465
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• 2015

Energy absorption distribution according to lead shielding for 511 keV ${\gamma}$ ray was evaluated using a Monte Carlo simulation in PET/CT. Experimental method was performed about the depth of skin surface(0.07), lens(3) and the depth(10) was conducted by using ICRU Slab phantom. Difference of energy absorption distribution according to lead thickness and effect of air gap according to distance of lead and phantom. As a result, study showed that using a lead shielding makes high energy distribution by backscatter electron. As a distance between lead and phantom increased, energy absorption distribution gradually decreased. 9 cm or more air gap should exist to prevent effect of backscatter electron which reaches skin surface, when 0.25 mmPb shielding is used. Also 1 cm or more air gap was needed to prevent the effect in 0.5 mmPb. If air gap was not concerned, 0.75 mm or more lead thickness was necessary to prevent effect of backscatter electron.