• Title/Summary/Keyword: monte carlo method

Search Result 2,190, Processing Time 0.025 seconds

Seismic Reliability Assessment of the Korean 345 kV Electric Power Network considering Parallel Operation of Transformers (변압기의 병렬 운전을 고려한 국내 345kV 초고압 전력망의 지진 재해 신뢰성 평가)

  • Park, Won-Suk;Park, Young-Jun;Cho, Ho-Hyun;Koh, Hyun-Moo
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.10 no.3 s.49
    • /
    • pp.13-20
    • /
    • 2006
  • Substations in electric power transmission network systems (EPTS) operate using several transformers in parallel to increase the efficiency in terms of stability of energy supply. We present a seismic reliability assessment method of EPTS considering the parallel operation of transformers. Two methods for damage state model are compared in this paper: bi-state and multi-damage model. Simulation results showed that both models yielded similar network reliability indices and the reliability indices of the demand nodes using hi-state model exhibited higher damage probability. Particularly, the corresponding EENS (Expected Energy Not Supplied) index was significantly larger than that of the multi-damage state.

Goodness-of-fit test for the gumbel distribution based on the generalized Lorenz curve (일반화된 로렌츠 곡선을 기반으로 한 Gumbel 분포의 적합도 검정)

  • Lee, Kyeongjun
    • Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
    • /
    • v.28 no.4
    • /
    • pp.733-742
    • /
    • 2017
  • There are many areas of applications where Gumbel distribution are employed such as environmental sciences, system reliability and hydrology. The goodness-of-fit test for Gumbel distribution is very important in environmental sciences, system reliability and hydrology data analysis. Therefore, we propose the two test statistics to test goodness-of-fit for the Gumbel distribution based on the generalized Lorenz curve. We compare the new test statistic with the Anderson - Darling test, Cramer - vonMises test, and modified Anderson - Darling test in terms of the power of the test through by Monte Carlo method. As a result, the new test statistics are more powerful than the other test statistics. Also, we propose new graphic method to goodness-of-fit test for the Gumbel distribution based on the generalized Lorenz curve.

System Reliability Analysis of Rack Storage Facilities (물류보관 랙선반시설물의 시스템신뢰성 해석)

  • Ok, Seung-Yong;Kim, Dong-Seok
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
    • /
    • v.29 no.4
    • /
    • pp.116-122
    • /
    • 2014
  • This study proposes a system reliability analysis of rack storage facilities subjected to forklift colliding events. The proposed system reliability analysis consists of two steps: the first step is to identify dominant failure modes that most contribute to the failure of the whole rack facilities, and the second step is to evaluate the system failure probability. In the first step, dominant failure modes are identified by using a simulation-based selective searching technique where the contribution of a failure mode to the system failure is roughly estimated based on the distance from the origin in the space of the random variables. In the second step, the multi-scale system reliability method is used to compute the system reliability where the first-order reliability method (FORM) is initially used to evaluate the component failure probability (failure probability of one member), and then the probabilities of the identified failure modes and their statistical dependence are evaluated, which is called as the lower-scale reliability analysis. Since the system failure probability is comprised of the probabilities of the failure modes, a higher-scale reliability analysis is performed again based on the results of the lower-scale analyses, and the system failure probability is finally evaluated. The illustrative example demonstrates the results of the system reliability analysis of the rack storage facilities subjected to forklift impact loadings. The numerical efficiency and accuracy of the approach are compared with the Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that the proposed two-step approach is able to provide accurate reliability assessment as well as significant saving of computational time. The results of the identified failure modes additionally let us know the most-critical members and their failure sequence under the complicated configuration of the member connections.

Analysis of the Interaction Between Hypersonic Free Stream and Side Jet Flow Using a DSMC Method (직접모사법을 이용한 극음속 대기 유동과 측면 제트의 상호 작용 해석)

  • Kim, Min-Gyu;Kwon, Oh-Joon
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
    • /
    • v.33 no.3
    • /
    • pp.1-9
    • /
    • 2005
  • The interaction between hypersonic free stream and side jet flow at high altitudes is investigated by using the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. In order to alleviate the difficulty associated with the large density difference between the free stream and the side jet flow and to simulate the two flows simultaneously, a weighting factor technique is applied. For validation, the corner flow over a pair of plates perpendicularly attached is calculated with and without a side jet, and the results are compared with experiment. For a more realistic configuration, the flow past a blunted cone cylinder shape is solved. The leeward or windward jet is injected into the free stream and the effect on the aerodynamic force and moment is observed at various flow angles. The lambda shock effect and the wake structure are studied in terms of the surface pressure differential. A higher interaction between the free stream and the side jet flow is observed when the side jet is injected in the windward direction.

Structural modal identification and MCMC-based model updating by a Bayesian approach

  • Zhang, F.L.;Yang, Y.P.;Ye, X.W.;Yang, J.H.;Han, B.K.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
    • /
    • v.24 no.5
    • /
    • pp.631-639
    • /
    • 2019
  • Finite element analysis is one of the important methods to study the structural performance. Due to the simplification, discretization and error of structural parameters, numerical model errors always exist. Besides, structural characteristics may also change because of material aging, structural damage, etc., making the initial finite element model cannot simulate the operational response of the structure accurately. Based on Bayesian methods, the initial model can be updated to obtain a more accurate numerical model. This paper presents the work on the field test, modal identification and model updating of a Chinese reinforced concrete pagoda. Based on the ambient vibration test, the acceleration response of the structure under operational environment was collected. The first six translational modes of the structure were identified by the enhanced frequency domain decomposition method. The initial finite element model of the pagoda was established, and the elastic modulus of columns, beams and slabs were selected as model parameters to be updated. Assuming the error between the measured mode and the calculated one follows a Gaussian distribution, the posterior probability density function (PDF) of the parameter to be updated is obtained and the uncertainty is quantitatively evaluated based on the Bayesian statistical theory and the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, and then the optimal values of model parameters can be obtained. The results show that the difference between the calculated frequency of the finite element model and the measured one is reduced, and the modal correlation of the mode shape is improved. The updated numerical model can be used to evaluate the safety of the structure as a benchmark model for structural health monitoring (SHM).

Stochastic hygrothermoelectromechanical loaded post buckling analysis of piezoelectric laminated cylindrical shell panel

  • Lal, Achchhe;Saidane, Nitesh;Singh, B.N.
    • Smart Structures and Systems
    • /
    • v.9 no.6
    • /
    • pp.505-534
    • /
    • 2012
  • The present work deals with second order statistics of post buckling response of piezoelectric laminated composite cylindrical shell panel subjected to hygro-thermo-electro-mechanical loading with random system properties. System parameters such as the material properties, thermal expansion coefficients and lamina plate thickness are assumed to be independent of the temperature and electric field and modeled as random variables. The piezoelectric material is used in the forms of layers surface bonded on the layers of laminated composite shell panel. The mathematical formulation is based on higher order shear deformation shell theory (HSDT) with von-Karman nonlinear kinematics. A efficient $C^0$ nonlinear finite element method based on direct iterative procedure in conjunction with a first order perturbation approach (FOPT) is developed for the implementation of the proposed problems in random environment and is employed to evaluate the second order statistics (mean and variance) of the post buckling load of piezoelectric laminated cylindrical shell panel. Typical numerical results are presented to examine the effect of various environmental conditions, amplitude ratios, electrical voltages, panel side to thickness ratios, aspect ratios, boundary conditions, curvature to side ratios, lamination schemes and types of loadings with random system properties. It is observed that the piezoelectric effect has a significant influence on the stochastic post buckling response of composite shell panel under various loading conditions and some new results are presented to demonstrate the applications of present work. The results obtained using the present solution approach is validated with those results available in the literature and also with independent Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS).

Analysis of Heat Loss with Mirror Array and Receiver Shapes on the Dish Solar Collector (반사경 배치 및 흡수기 형상에 따른 접시형 태양열 집열기의 열손실 해석)

  • Seo, Joo-Hyun;Ma, Dae-Sung;Kim, Yong;Kang, Yong-Heack;Seo, Tae-Beom
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
    • /
    • v.20 no.1
    • /
    • pp.35-41
    • /
    • 2008
  • The radiative heat loss from a receiver of a dish solar collector is numerically investigated. The dish solar collector considered in this paper consists of a receiver and multi-faceted mirrors. In order to investigate the performance comparison of dish solar collectors, six different mirror arrays and four different receivers are considered. A parabolic- shaped perfect mirror of which diameter is 1.40 m is considered as the reference for the mirror arrays. The other mirror arrays which consist of twelve identical parabolic-shaped mirror facets of which diameter are 0.405 m are suggested for comparison. Their reflecting areas, which are 1.545 $m^{2}$, are the same. Four different receiver shapes are a conical, a dome, a cylindrical, and a unicorn type. The radiative properties of the mirror surfaces and the receiver surfaces may vary the thermal performance of the dish solar collector so that various surface properties are considered. In order to calculate the radiative heat loss in the receiver, two kinds of methods are used. The Net Radiation Method that is based on the radiation heat balance on the surface is used to calculate the radiation heat transfer rate from the inside surface of the receiver to the environment. The Monte-Carlo Method that is the statistical approach is adopted to predict the radiation heat transfer rate from the reflector to the receiver. The collector efficiency is defined as the results of the optical efficiency and the receiver efficiency. Based on the calculation, the unicorn type has the best performance in receiver shapes and the STAR has the best performance in mirror arrays except the perfect mirror.

Search for Ground Moving Targets Using Dynamic Probability Maps (동적 확률지도를 이용한 지상 이동표적 탐색)

  • Kim, Eun-Kyu;Choi, Bong-Wan;Yim, Dong-Soon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
    • /
    • v.38 no.4
    • /
    • pp.11-21
    • /
    • 2015
  • In order to achieve success in ground operations, searching for moving targets is one of critical factors. Usually, the system of searching for adversary ground moving targets has complex properties which includes target's moving characteristics, camouflage level, terrain, weather, available search time window, distance between target and searcher, moving speed, target's tactics, etc. The purpose of this paper is to present a practical quantitative method for effectively searching for infiltrated moving targets considering aforementioned complex properties. Based upon search theories, this paper consists of two parts. One is infiltration route analysis, through terrain and mobility analysis. The other is building dynamic probability maps through Monte Carlo simulation to determine the prioritized searching area for moving targets. This study primarily considers ground moving targets' moving pattern. These move by foot and because terrain has a great effect on the target's movement, they generally travel along a constrained path. With the ideas based on the terrain's effect, this study deliberately performed terrain and mobility analysis and built a constrained path. In addition, dynamic probability maps taking terrain condition and a target's moving speed into consideration is proposed. This analysis is considerably distinct from other existing studies using supposed transition probability for searching moving targets. A case study is performed to validate the effectiveness and usefulness of our methodology. Also, this study suggests that the proposed approach can be used for searching for infiltrated ground moving target within critical time window. The proposed method could be used not only to assist a searcher's mission planning, but also to support the tactical commander's timely decision making ability and ensure the operations' success.

Improvement of Statistics in Proton Beam Range Measurement by Merging Prompt Gamma Distributions: A Preliminary Study

  • Kim, Sung Hun;Park, Jong Hoon;Ku, Youngmo;Lee, Hyun Su;Kim, Young-su;Kim, Chan Hyeong;Jeong, Jong Hwi
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
    • /
    • v.44 no.1
    • /
    • pp.1-7
    • /
    • 2019
  • Background: To monitor proton beam in proton therapy, prompt gamma imaging systems are being developed by several research groups, and these systems are expected to improve the quality of the treatment and the patient safety. To apply the prompt gamma imaging systems into spot scanning proton therapy, the systems should be able to monitor the proton beam range of a spot with a small number of protons ( <$10^8$ protons), which is quite often not the case due to insufficient prompt gamma statistics. Materials and Methods: In the present study, we propose to improve prompt gamma statistics by merging the prompt gamma distributions of several individual spots into a new distribution. This proposal was tested by Geant4 Monte Carlo simulations for a multi-slit prompt gamma camera which has been developed to measure the proton beam range in the patient. Results and Discussion: The results show that the proposed method clearly enhance the statistical precision of beam range measurement. The accuracy of beam range verification is improved, within ~1.4 mm error, which is not achievable before applying the developed method. Conclusion: In this study, we tried to improve the statistics of the prompt gamma statistics by merging the prompt gamma distributions of multiple spots, and it was found that the merged distribution provided sufficient prompt gamma statistics and the proton beam range was determined accurately.

Precise System Models using Crystal Penetration Error Compensation for Iterative Image Reconstruction of Preclinical Quad-Head PET

  • Lee, Sooyoung;Bae, Seungbin;Lee, Hakjae;Kim, Kwangdon;Lee, Kisung;Kim, Kyeong-Min;Bae, Jaekeon
    • Journal of the Korean Physical Society
    • /
    • v.73 no.11
    • /
    • pp.1764-1773
    • /
    • 2018
  • A-PET is a quad-head PET scanner developed for use in small-animal imaging. The dimensions of its volumetric field of view (FOV) are $46.1{\times}46.1{\times}46.1mm^3$ and the gap between the detector modules has been minimized in order to provide a highly sensitive system. However, such a small FOV together with the quad-head geometry causes image quality degradation. The main factor related to image degradation for the quad-head PET is the mispositioning of events caused by the penetration effect in the detector. In this paper, we propose a precise method for modelling the system at the high spatial resolution of the A-PET using a LOR (line of response) based ML-EM (maximum likelihood expectation maximization) that allows for penetration effects. The proposed system model provides the detection probability of every possible ray-path via crystal sampling methods. For the ray-path sampling, the sub-LORs are defined by connecting the sampling points of the crystal pair. We incorporate the detection probability of each sub-LOR into the model by calculating the penetration effect. For comparison, we used a standard LOR-based model and a Monte Carlo-based modeling approach, and evaluated the reconstructed images using both the National Electrical Manufacturers Association NU 4-2008 standards and the Geant4 Application for Tomographic Emission simulation toolkit (GATE). An average full width at half maximum (FWHM) at different locations of 1.77 mm and 1.79 mm are obtained using the proposed system model and standard LOR system model, which does not include penetration effects, respectively. The standard deviation of the uniform region in the NEMA image quality phantom is 2.14% for the proposed method and 14.3% for the LOR system model, indicating that the proposed model out-performs the standard LOR-based model.