• Title/Summary/Keyword: model-free analysis

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An Empirical Study on the Characteristic Influences of the Rules of Origin on the Implementation of Preferential Tariffs and Trade Performance

  • Park, Se-Hyun;Pak, Myong-Sop
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.25 no.8
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    • pp.1-24
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    • 2021
  • Purpose - This study categorizes factors that influence the utilization of preferential tariffs based on the characteristics of rules of origin (RoO) and identifies and analyzes the influence of these characteristics on the utilization of preferential tariffs and the trade performance of companies. Design/methodology - In this study, we categorized factors that have an influence on the utilization of preferential tariffs based on the characteristics of RoO and investigated and tested the influence of these characteristics on the utilization of preferential tariffs and the trade performance of companies. For empirical analysis, we categorized the characteristics of RoO into restrictiveness, complexity, and uncertainty. We then developed a research model and formulated hypotheses based on previous studies, and tested the hypotheses using statistical software-(SPSS 25.0 and AMOS 18.0.) Findings - Previous studies suggested that each characteristic of RoO is determined by unique features of a Regional Trade Agreement (RTA). This study conducted an empirical analysis on the influence of the characteristics of RoO on the utilization of preferential tariffs and trade performance. The results confirmed that, overall, the characteristics of preferential rules of origin (PRoO) are related to and influence Korean companies' utilization of preferential tariffs and trade performance. As for the degree of the influence, the characteristics were in the order of uncertainty> restrictiveness> complexity. Nevertheless, complexity turned out not to have an influence large enough to change a company's decision on the utilization of preferential tariffs. Based on these results, this study identified unique features of PRoO and related problems for Korean companies that want to utilize preferential tariffs and suggested countermeasures for their effective utilization of preferential tariffs in the future. Originality/value - Companies that want to use preferential tariffs in international trade have to satisfy PRoO. The issue of origin can be regarded as an essential part of an RTA and RoO, are a crucial criterion in using preferential tariffs. The rules are requirements to claim benefits of preferential trade agreements and are the primary reasons companies have trouble in utilizing preferential tariffs. In this sense, this study categorized the characteristics of RoO, which are a key part of an RTA, and surveyed working-level professionals in charge of international trade at Korean companies to investigate the relationship between these characteristics and the utilizations of preferential tariffs and trade performance of the companies.

Analysis of dependence structure between international freight rate index and U.S. and China trade uncertainty (국제 해운 운임지수와 미국과 중국의 무역 불확실성 사이의 의존성 구조 분석)

  • Kim, Bu-Kwon;Kim, Dong-Yoon;Choi, Ki-Hong
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.93-106
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    • 2020
  • Trade is an important economic activity. In particular, since the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO), the scope of trade has been expanding due to events such as the entry of China into the WTO in 2001, the establishment of a multilateral trading system, mitigation and integration of trade barriers, and the establishment of the free trade agreement (FTA). Despite the expansion of the trade market, however, extreme events such as the 2008 global financial crisis, the 2016 Brexit, and the 2018 US-China trade war have had a direct negative impact on the trade market. Therefore, the present this study analyzed the dependence structure between the international shipping freight rate index, a variable representing trade activities, and the trade uncertainty between the US and China. The following is a summary of the analysis results. First, the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rate index presented a Frank copula and rotated Clayton copula 270° distribution, respectively, showing the same distribution structure for each country. Second, the Kendall's tau correlation revealed a negative dependence between the international shipping freight rate index and US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty. The degree of dependence was greater in the combination of uncertainty in China's trade policy and international shipping freight rates. In other words, the dependence of global demand and trade policy uncertainty confirmed that China was stronger than the US. Finally, the tail dependence results revealed that the US-Chinese trade policy uncertainty and international shipping freight rates were independent of each other. This means that extreme events related to the trade policy uncertainty or international shipping rate index were not affected by each other.

A Study on the Element Technologies in Flame Arrester of End Line (선박의 엔드라인 폭연방지기의 요소기술에 관한 연구)

  • Pham, Minh-Ngoc;Choi, Min-Seon;Kim, Bu-Gi
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.468-475
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    • 2019
  • An end-line flame arrester allows free venting in combination with flame protection for vertical vent applications. End-line flame arresters are employed in various fields, especially in shipping. In flame arresters, springs are essential parts because the spring load and the spring's elasticity determine the hood opening moment. In addition, the spring has to work under a high-temperature condition because of the burning gas flame. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the mechanical load and elasticity of the spring when the flame starts to appear. Based on simulations of the working process of a specific end-line flame arrester, a thermal and structural analysis of the spring is performed. A three-dimensional model of a burned spring is built using computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation. Results of the CFD analysis are input into a finite element method simulation to analyze the spring structure. The research team focused on three cases of spring loads: 43, 93, and 56 kg, correspondingly, at 150 mm of spring deflection. Consequently, the spring load was reduced by 10 kg after 5 min under a $1,000^{\circ}C$ heat condition. The simulation results can be used to predict and estimate the spring's load and elasticity at the burning time variation. Moreover, the obtained outcome can provide the industry with references to optimize the design of the spring as well as that of the flame arrester.

Development and Effectiveness Analysis of Sustainable Dietary Free-year Program for the Improvement of Youth Empowerment in Middle School Home Economics (청소년의 임파워먼트 향상을 위한 가정교과 지속가능한 식생활 자유학년제 프로그램 개발 및 효과분석)

  • Choi, Seong-Yeon;Han, Ju
    • Journal of Korean Home Economics Education Association
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    • v.34 no.2
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    • pp.129-152
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to develop a sustainable dietary education program for middle school home economics subject using a teaching strategy to improve the empowerment of adolescents and to verify and evaluate the effectiveness of the program. To achieve the purpose of this study, the program was developed and evaluated according to the ADDIE teaching design model. The contents related to the dietary area were extracted from the technical & home economics curriculum of the 2015 revised middle school and SDGs, and their relevance was analyzed to select the contents of dietary education. The program developed based on the analysis results is 'dietary life together' and consists of five learning topics: 'living together in the global village', 'maintaining healthy diet', 'creating a dietary culture together', 'living with nature and people', and 'maintaining a safe diet'. As a strategy for improving empowerment, we presented four situations, each of which represents value judgment, prediction of results, responsible behavior choice, and decision making. The developed program was reviewed by experts and applied to 17 unit classes for 17 weeks (1 unit hour per week) to the third graders of middle schools in Gyeonggi-do. Significant differences were found between before and after the class measurements of the personal empowerment and the political and social empowerment, which shows the classes were effective in improving empowerment. However, since there was no significant difference in interpersonal empowerment before and after the program, suggestions were made to utilize strategies to facilitate discussion and cooperative learning when implementing the program. The students who participated in the class evaluated the program positively as a whole. The program was evaluated to have helped the students believe they could change society through solving dietary problems.

Numerical Study of Heat Flux and BOG in C-Type Liquefied Hydrogen Tank under Sloshing Excitation at the Saturated State (포화상태에 놓인 C-Type 액체수소 탱크의 슬로싱이 열 유속과 BOG에 미치는 변화의 수치적 분석)

  • Lee, Jin-Ho;Hwang, Se-Yun;Lee, Sung-Je;Lee, Jang Hyun
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.299-308
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    • 2022
  • This study was conducted to predict the tendency for heat exchange and boil-off gas (BOG) in a liquefied hydrogen tank under sloshing excitation. First, athe fluid domain excited by sloshing was modeled using a multiphase-thermal flow domain in which liquid hydrogen and hydrogen gas are in the saturated state. Both the the volume of fluid (VOF) and Eulerian-based multi-phase flow methods were applied to validate the accuracy of the pressure prediction. Second, it was indirectly shown that the fluid velocity prediction could be accurate by comparing the free surface and impact pressure from the computational fluid dynamics with those from the experimental results. Thereafter, the heat ingress from the external convective heat flux was reflected on the outer surfaces of the hydrogen tank. Eulerian-based multiphase-heat flow analysis was performed for a two-dimensional Type-C cylindrical hydrogen tank under rotational sloshing motion, and an inflation technique was applied to transform the fluid domain into a computational grid model. The heat exchange and heat flux in the hydrogen liquid-gas mixture were calculated throughout the analysis,, whereas the mass transfer and vaporization models were excluded to account for the pure heat exchange between the liquid and gas in the saturated state. In addition, forced convective heat transfer by sloshing on the inner wall of the tank was not reflected so that the heat exchange in the multiphase flow of liquid and gas could only be considered. Finally, the effect of sloshing on the amount of heat exchange between liquid and gas hydrogen was discussed. Considering the heat ingress into liquid hydrogen according to the presence/absence of a sloshing excitation, the amount of heat flux and BOG were discussed for each filling ratio.

Development of Simulator for Analyzing Intercept Performance of Surface-to-air Missile (지대공미사일 요격 성능 분석 시뮬레이터 개발)

  • Kim, Ki-Hwan;Seo, Yoon-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.63-71
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    • 2010
  • In modern war, Intercept Performance of SAM(Surface to Air Missile) is gaining importance as range and precision of Missile and Guided Weapon on information warfare have been improved. An aerial defence system using Surface-to-air Radar and Guided Missile is needed to be built for prediction and defense from threatening aerial attack. When developing SAM, M&S is used to free from a time limit and a space restriction. M&S is widely applied to education, training, and design of newest Weapon System. This study was conducted to develop simulator for evaluation of Intercept Performance of SAM. In this study, architecture of Intercept Performance of SAM analysis simulator for estimation of Intercept Performance of various SAM was suggested and developed. The developed Intercept Performance of SAM analysis simulator was developed by C++ and Direct3D, and through 3D visualization using the Direct3D, it shows procedures of the simulation on a user animation window. Information about design and operation of Fighting model is entered through input window of the simulator, and simulation engine consisted of Object Manager, Operation Manager, and Integrated Manager conducts modeling and simulation automatically using the information, so the simulator gives user feedback in a short time.

Disentangling Trade Effects of the Korea - China FTA: Trade Liberalization or Political Conflicts?

  • HuiHui Yin;Juyoung Cheong
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.21-42
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - This paper investigates the trade effect of the Korea-China Free Trade Agreement (KCFTA) which coincides with political conflicts between the two countries due to the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) in Korea. The two events occurred in the same year and both are likely to affect trade between two countries but in opposite directions. Therefore, it is crucial to distinguish between the trade effects from the KCFTA event and those from the THAAD event to evaluate the true FTA effects. However, this would be difficult when using only annual data. Accordingly, ex post studies to examine the trade effects of KCFTA are lacking in trustworthiness while many ex ante studies that conjecture the positive trade effects neglect the THAAD deployment impact. This paper aims to fill that gap. Design/methodology - Given that the KCFTA and THAAD events occurred in the same year but in different months, we use the monthly data from 2000 to 2019 of Korea's exports to bracket this period. We employ the difference-in-difference (DID) method within a gravity equation specification that uses hi-dimensional fixed effects to address various endogeneity issues and seasonal effects. We identify the net impact of KCFTA ratification from these two near-simultaneous events to quantify the effects of trade liberalization between these two countries. Findings - After isolating the THAAD effects on trade, the analysis creates a positive and statistically significant coefficient estimate of the KCFTA impact. In contrast, failing to isolate the THAAD effect produced a negative and statistically significant coefficient estimate of the KCFTA impact. Our results indicate that KCFTA independently increased Korea's exports to China by 10.2%, but that this increase was fully mitigated by the THAAD event. Further, our results verify that unobserved heterogeneity and multilateral resistance are technically difficult to account for in those estimations as that rely solely upon annual data, as this type of data are inadequate to control for the potential for endogeneity. Originality/value - This paper is one of the first studies to carefully evaluate the net trade effects of the KCFTA on Korea's largest trading partner while isolating the impact of simultaneously occurred political events that may influence trade in opposing directions. Our findings indicate that the lack of prior evidence of positive trade effects of the KCFTA when using annual data may be attributed to a failure to identify the impact of each event separately. This analysis supports using the correct modeling specification to avoid misleading conclusions when evaluating any important international trade policy.

An Importance-Performance Analysis of Location Selection Factors for International Distribution Center in Port Hinterland (IPA기법을 통한 항만배후단지 내 국제물류센터 입주결정요인 분석)

  • Kim, Si-Hyun
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.42 no.1
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    • pp.283-301
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    • 2017
  • As a consequence of the changed role and functions in port operations, the role of port hinterland has transformed to multi-functional logistic centre linking more efficiently elements of the supply chain. This paper analysed distribution centre selection factors in Busan new port hinterland, aiming to diagnose and evaluate the operational situations of port hinterland as multi-functional logistics centre. Based on a data collected from all 122 samples located in Busan new port hinterland, determinants for location competitiveness identified were: political support, market potentiality, infrastructure utilization, market niche, and connectivity. Comparing the difference between an importance and performance, it is revealed that the target port hinterland requires urgent improvement in political supports such as incentive programmes offered by host country, free trade system and related law, financial assistance in constructing distribution centers, and simplicity, ease and efficiency of administrative procedures. The results provide useful insights for establishing future improvement strategies and a strategic agenda to successfully respond to the demands of the companies located in port hinterlands and/or new customers those who want to move in.

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Comparison of Genetic Profiles and Prognosis of High-Grade Gliomas Using Quantitative and Qualitative MRI Features: A Focus on G3 Gliomas

  • Eun Kyoung Hong;Seung Hong Choi;Dong Jae Shin;Sang Won Jo;Roh-Eul Yoo;Koung Mi Kang;Tae Jin Yun;Ji-hoon Kim;Chul-Ho Sohn;Sung-Hye Park;Jae-Kyoung Won;Tae Min Kim;Chul-Kee Park;Il Han Kim;Soon-Tae Lee
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.233-242
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    • 2021
  • Objective: To evaluate the association of MRI features with the major genomic profiles and prognosis of World Health Organization grade III (G3) gliomas compared with those of glioblastomas (GBMs). Materials and Methods: We enrolled 76 G3 glioma and 155 GBM patients with pathologically confirmed disease who had pretreatment brain MRI and major genetic information of tumors. Qualitative and quantitative imaging features, including volumetrics and histogram parameters, such as normalized cerebral blood volume (nCBV), cerebral blood flow (nCBF), and apparent diffusion coefficient (nADC) were evaluated. The G3 gliomas were divided into three groups for the analysis: with this isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH)-mutation, IDH mutation and a chromosome arm 1p/19q-codeleted (IDHmut1p/19qdel), IDH mutation, 1p/19q-nondeleted (IDHmut1p/19qnondel), and IDH wildtype (IDHwt). A prediction model for the genetic profiles of G3 gliomas was developed and validated on a separate cohort. Both the quantitative and qualitative imaging parameters and progression-free survival (PFS) of G3 gliomas were compared and survival analysis was performed. Moreover, the imaging parameters and PFS between IDHwt G3 gliomas and GBMs were compared. Results: IDHmut G3 gliomas showed a larger volume (p = 0.017), lower nCBF (p = 0.048), and higher nADC (p = 0.007) than IDHwt. Between the IDHmut tumors, IDHmut1p/19qdel G3 gliomas had higher nCBV (p = 0.024) and lower nADC (p = 0.002) than IDHmut1p/19qnondel G3 gliomas. Moreover, IDHmut1p/19qdel tumors had the best prognosis and IDHwt tumors had the worst prognosis among G3 gliomas (p < 0.001). PFS was significantly associated with the 95th percentile values of nCBV and nCBF in G3 gliomas. There was no significant difference in neither PFS nor imaging features between IDHwt G3 gliomas and IDHwt GBMs. Conclusion: We found significant differences in MRI features, including volumetrics, CBV, and ADC, in G3 gliomas, according to IDH mutation and 1p/19q codeletion status, which can be utilized for the prediction of genomic profiles and the prognosis of G3 glioma patients. The MRI signatures and prognosis of IDHwt G3 gliomas tend to follow those of IDHwt GBMs.

An Investigation on the Periodical Transition of News related to North Korea using Text Mining (텍스트마이닝을 활용한 북한 관련 뉴스의 기간별 변화과정 고찰)

  • Park, Chul-Soo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.63-88
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    • 2019
  • The goal of this paper is to investigate changes in North Korea's domestic and foreign policies through automated text analysis over North Korea represented in South Korean mass media. Based on that data, we then analyze the status of text mining research, using a text mining technique to find the topics, methods, and trends of text mining research. We also investigate the characteristics and method of analysis of the text mining techniques, confirmed by analysis of the data. In this study, R program was used to apply the text mining technique. R program is free software for statistical computing and graphics. Also, Text mining methods allow to highlight the most frequently used keywords in a paragraph of texts. One can create a word cloud, also referred as text cloud or tag cloud. This study proposes a procedure to find meaningful tendencies based on a combination of word cloud, and co-occurrence networks. This study aims to more objectively explore the images of North Korea represented in South Korean newspapers by quantitatively reviewing the patterns of language use related to North Korea from 2016. 11. 1 to 2019. 5. 23 newspaper big data. In this study, we divided into three periods considering recent inter - Korean relations. Before January 1, 2018, it was set as a Before Phase of Peace Building. From January 1, 2018 to February 24, 2019, we have set up a Peace Building Phase. The New Year's message of Kim Jong-un and the Olympics of Pyeong Chang formed an atmosphere of peace on the Korean peninsula. After the Hanoi Pease summit, the third period was the silence of the relationship between North Korea and the United States. Therefore, it was called Depression Phase of Peace Building. This study analyzes news articles related to North Korea of the Korea Press Foundation database(www.bigkinds.or.kr) through text mining, to investigate characteristics of the Kim Jong-un regime's South Korea policy and unification discourse. The main results of this study show that trends in the North Korean national policy agenda can be discovered based on clustering and visualization algorithms. In particular, it examines the changes in the international circumstances, domestic conflicts, the living conditions of North Korea, the South's Aid project for the North, the conflicts of the two Koreas, North Korean nuclear issue, and the North Korean refugee problem through the co-occurrence word analysis. It also offers an analysis of South Korean mentality toward North Korea in terms of the semantic prosody. In the Before Phase of Peace Building, the results of the analysis showed the order of 'Missiles', 'North Korea Nuclear', 'Diplomacy', 'Unification', and ' South-North Korean'. The results of Peace Building Phase are extracted the order of 'Panmunjom', 'Unification', 'North Korea Nuclear', 'Diplomacy', and 'Military'. The results of Depression Phase of Peace Building derived the order of 'North Korea Nuclear', 'North and South Korea', 'Missile', 'State Department', and 'International'. There are 16 words adopted in all three periods. The order is as follows: 'missile', 'North Korea Nuclear', 'Diplomacy', 'Unification', 'North and South Korea', 'Military', 'Kaesong Industrial Complex', 'Defense', 'Sanctions', 'Denuclearization', 'Peace', 'Exchange and Cooperation', and 'South Korea'. We expect that the results of this study will contribute to analyze the trends of news content of North Korea associated with North Korea's provocations. And future research on North Korean trends will be conducted based on the results of this study. We will continue to study the model development for North Korea risk measurement that can anticipate and respond to North Korea's behavior in advance. We expect that the text mining analysis method and the scientific data analysis technique will be applied to North Korea and unification research field. Through these academic studies, I hope to see a lot of studies that make important contributions to the nation.