• 제목/요약/키워드: model space

검색결과 8,171건 처리시간 0.033초

상태공간모형에서 주가의 평균회귀현상에 대한 재평가 (Reappraisal of Mean-Reversion of Stock Prices in the State-Space Model)

  • 전덕빈;최원혁
    • 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국경영과학회 2006년도 추계학술대회
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    • pp.173-179
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    • 2006
  • In order to explain a U-shape pattern of stock returns, Fama and French(1988) suggested the state-space model consisting of I(1) permanent component and AR(1) stationary component. They concluded the autoregression coefficient induced from the state-space model follow the U-shape pattern and the U-shape pattern of stock returns was due to both negative autocorrelation in returns beyond a year and substantial mean-reversion in stock market prices. However, we found negative autocorrelation is induced under the assumption that permanent and stationary noise component are independent in the state-space model. In this paper, we derive the autoregression coefficient based on ARIMA process equivalent to the state-space model without the assumption of independency. Based on the estimated parameters, we investigate the pattern of the time-varying autoregression coefficient and conclude the autoregression coefficient from the state-space model of ARIMA(1,1,1) process does not follow a U-shape pattern, but has always positive sign. We applied this result on the data of 1 month retums for all NYSE stocks for the 1926-85 period from the Center for Research in Security Prices.

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Comparison of 3-D structures of Halo CMEs using cone models

  • 나현옥;문용재;장수정;이경선
    • 천문학회보
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    • 제37권1호
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    • pp.95.1-95.1
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    • 2012
  • Halo coronal mass ejections (HCMEs) are major cause of geomagnetic storms and their three dimensional structures are important for space weather. In this study, we compare three cone models: an elliptical cone model, an ice-cream cone model, and an asymmetric cone model. These models allow us to determine the three dimensional parameters of HCMEs such as radial speed, angular width, and the angle (${\gamma}$) between sky plane and cone axis. We compare these parameters obtained from three models using 62 well-observed HCMEs from 2001 to 2002. Then we obtain the root mean square error (RMS error) between maximum measured projection speeds and their calculated projection speeds from the cone models. As a result, we find that the radial speeds obtained from the models are well correlated with one another (R > 0.84). The correlation coefficients between angular widths are less than 0.53 and those between ${\gamma}$ values are less than 0.47, which are much smaller than expected. The reason may be due to different assumptions and methods. The RMS errors of the elliptical cone model, the ice-cream cone model, and the asymmetric cone model are 213 km/s, 254 km/s, and 267 km/s, respectively. Finally, we discuss their strengths and weaknesses in terms of space weather application.

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PATRAN 데이타베이스를 기반으로 한 스페이스 프레임의 통합설계시스템 (Space Frame Integrated Design System based on PATRAN Database)

  • Lee Jae Hong;Lee Joo Young
    • 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국전산구조공학회 1998년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.210-215
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    • 1998
  • To design a space frame structure by the conventional method is not easy in practical sense since it is generally a three-dimensional complicated form, and stability and nonlinear problems are not easily checked in the design process. This paper describes two modules, the Model Generator which is based on PATRAN user interface that enables users to generate a complicated finite element model; the Optimum Design Module which analyzes output results of analysis program, and designs members of a space frame. The Model Generator is based on PCL while C++ language is used in the Optimum Design Module. Structural analysis is performed by using ABAQUS. All of these modules constitute Space Frame Integrated Design System. The Core of the system is PATRAN database, in which the Model Generator creates information of a finite element model. Then, PATRAN creates input files needed for the analysis program from the information of the finite element model in the database, and in turn, imports output results of analysis program to the database. Finally, the Optimum Design Module processes member grouping of a space frame based on the output results, and performs optimal member selection of a space frame. This process is repeated until the desired optimum structural members are obtained.

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추계학적 모의발생기법을 이용한 월 유출 예측 (The Forecasting of Monthly Runoff using Stocastic Simulation Technique)

  • 안상진;이재경
    • 한국수자원학회논문집
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    • 제33권2호
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    • pp.159-167
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    • 2000
  • 본 연구는 낙동강수계인 위천 유역의 최하류 군위 지점에 대해 추계학적 모형인 Box-Jenkin의 승법 ARIMA 모형과 상태공간모형 이론적 토대로 하여 계절별 월 유출량을 모의하였다. 다변량 시계열 모형인 상태공간모형의 입력변수로 월 유효우량과 균등기간의 관측된 월 유출량을 사용하여 군위지점의 월 유출량을 예측한 결과 다변량 시계열 모형인 승법 ARIMA모형에 비하여 표준오차가 작게 나타났으므로, 유효우량과 유출량을 함께 이용하는 상태공간 모형을 이용하여 합리적인 유출량 예측이 가능하도록 하였다. 본 논문은 월 유출량 기록치 및 유효우량 자료를 분석하여 승법 ARIMA 모형 및 상태공간 모형에 적용하였으며, 상태공가 모형의 이론을 적용하여 VAR(P)의 P값을 구하기 위해 시차에 의한 AIC 값을 이용하였다. VARMA 모형은 정준상관계수를 이용한 상태공간 모형을 구하여 구축하였다. 따라서, 본 논문에서는 구축된 상태공간 모형을 사용하여 위천유역의 군위 지점에서 장·단기 유출량을 예측하여 수자원의 장·단기전략 수립에 도움을 주기 위함이다.

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네트워크 분석방식 선택에 따른 복잡계 모형과 공간구문론의 상호검증 (Mutual Verification of an Analytic Model of a Complex System and Space Syntax Using Network Analyses)

  • 김석태;윤소희
    • 한국실내디자인학회논문집
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    • 제26권3호
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    • pp.45-54
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    • 2017
  • A social phenomenon that occurs in a physical space is said to be a complex system. However, space syntax, which is commonly employed by researchers to identify such social phenomena, has various limitations in interpreting their complexity. On the other hand, agent-based modeling considers a variety of factors including the personality of the agent, objective-oriented work flows, estimation according to time flows and better prediction of space use through diverse parameters depending the situation, as well as the characteristics of the space. The agent-based method thus has the potentials to be developed as an alternative to space syntax techniques. In particular, discrete event driven simulation(DEVS), which is part of the agent-based modeling method, embraces the concept of networks just like space syntax, which allows a possible theoretical linkage in the future. This study suggests a procedural model of agent-based DEVS reflecting two different connection methods, i.e. connections between adjacent areas and those of the entire space, and attempts to identify the relationship between the local and regional indices of space syntax. A number of spaces were selected as examples-one for a preliminary experiment and eight modified for the main experiment-and space syntax and DEVS were applied to each of them. The comparative analysis of the results led to the conclusions as follows: 1) Adjacent connections were closely related to local indices, while the whole-space approach to regional indices. Local integration shows both characteristics. 2) Observation of the time flow model indicated a faster convergence with the range of 1 to 3-fold of the total time of one lap, with the error of less than 10%. 3) The heat map analysis showed more obvious characteristics of using the space for the entire space rather than adjacent connections. 4) Space syntax shows higher eligibility than ABM.

Comparative Analysis of Building Models to Develop a Generic Indoor Feature Model

  • Kim, Misun;Choi, Hyun-Sang;Lee, Jiyeong
    • 한국측량학회지
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    • 제39권5호
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    • pp.297-311
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    • 2021
  • Around the world, there is an increasing interest in Digital Twin cities. Although geospatial data is critical for building a digital twin city, currently-established spatial data cannot be used directly for its implementation. Integration of geospatial data is vital in order to construct and simulate the virtual space. Existing studies for data integration have focused on data transformation. The conversion method is fundamental and convenient, but the information loss during this process remains a limitation. With this, standardization of the data model is an approach to solve the integration problem while hurdling conversion limitations. However, the standardization within indoor space data models is still insufficient compared to 3D building and city models. Therefore, in this study, we present a comparative analysis of data models commonly used in indoor space modeling as a basis for establishing a generic indoor space feature model. By comparing five models of IFC (Industry Foundation Classes), CityGML (City Geographic Markup Language), AIIM (ArcGIS Indoors Information Model), IMDF (Indoor Mapping Data Format), and OmniClass, we identify essential elements for modeling indoor space and the feature classes commonly included in the models. The proposed generic model can serve as a basis for developing further indoor feature models through specifying minimum required structure and feature classes.

3차원 수직·수평 연결 네트워크 건축 공간분석을 위한 보행에너지 가중 Visibility ERAM 모델 구축 (The Establishment of Walking Energy-Weighted Visibility ERAM Model to Analyze the 3D Vertical and Horizontal Network Spaces in a Building)

  • 최성필;박근송;최재필
    • 대한건축학회논문집:계획계
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    • 제34권11호
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    • pp.23-32
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study is to establish a walking energy weighted ERAM model that can predict the pedestrian volume by the connection structure of the vertical and horizontal spaces within a three-dimensional building. The process of building a walking-energy weighted ERAM model is as follows. First, the spatial graph was used to reproduce three-dimensional buildings with vertical and horizontal spatial connection structures. Second, the walking energy was measured on the spatial graph. Third, ERAM model was used to apply weights with spatial connection properties in random walking environment, and the walking energy weights were applied to the ERAM model to calculate the walk energy weighted ERAM values and visualize the distribution of pedestrian flow. To verify the validation of the established model, existing and proposed spatial analysis models were compared to real space. The results of this study are as follows : The model proposed in this study showed as much elaborated estimation of pedestrian traffic flow in real space as in traditional spatial analysis models, and also it showed much higher level of forecasting pedestrian traffic flow in real space than existing models.

다수국간법정립행위로서의우주기지협정에관한고찰(多数国間法定立行為としての宇宙基地協定に関する一考察) (Consideration on the Convention of Space Station as Law-Making Process among Nations)

  • Horish, Saito
    • 항공우주정책ㆍ법학회지
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    • 제14권
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    • pp.87-110
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    • 2001
  • This Article examines a structure of two Conventions of Space Station, compares 1988 Convention and 1998 Convention, and tries to apply "model" to it. The structure of 1988 Convention shows us three phases: the Convention as a framework, the bilateral memorandum of understanding and the legislation by domestic process of United States. There were many advantageous provisions for United States. In 1998 Convention, however, those provisions are dampened and provisions become impartial, for example, the criminal jurisdiction, the right of intellectual property and the codes of conducts in Space Station. On the other hand, we sets the "model" up, that is "input of national benefits and ideas ${\Rightarrow}$ process of law-making ${\Rightarrow}$ output of common benefits, universal ideas and wastes." In the case of applying this "model" to 1988 and 1998 Conventions, we are convinced of enough possibility to understand and explain the legal system of Space Station by this "model." This result awakes us that study of legal system of Space Station according to the "model" influences the fundamental theory of International Law Study: the relation between international law and domestic law. This "model" has possibility to change the theory of relation between from "international law and domestic law" to "domestic law and domestic law through international legal system." In the end, we should reconsider on "policy-oriented jurisprudence" by professor McDougal to use his key words for explanation of concepts in the "model," because his theory contains important suggestions to the study of law-making process and legal system for outer space activities in the near future.

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퍼지 속성 집합을 이용한 데이터 분석 모델 (Data Analysis Model using the Fuzzy Property Set)

  • 이진호;이전영
    • 한국지능시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국퍼지및지능시스템학회 1997년도 춘계학술대회 학술발표 논문집
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    • pp.252-255
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    • 1997
  • In this paper, we will propose the methodology of data analysis using the fuzzy property set model. In real world, the data can be represented with the object. $\theta$. and the property, $\pi$, and its has-property relation, P. Then, the conceptual space can be defined with the chosen properties. Each object has a unique location in the conceptual space. In Fuzzy mode, the fuzzy property, and fuzzy conceptual space can be redefined. To analyze data using the fuzzy property set model, the rough set need to be defined in the fuzzy conceptual space.

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해수면 자유공간의 전파경로손실 예측 모델 (Prediction Model of Propagation Path Loss of the Free Space in the Sea)

  • 류광진;박창균
    • 한국음향학회지
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    • 제22권7호
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    • pp.579-584
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    • 2003
  • 지금까지 제안된 전파경로손실 예측모델 모두는 지표면 생활공간을 대상으로 하였을 뿐이다. 실제 해수면 자유공간은 지표면 생활공간과 물리적 계층구조가 다르다. 따라서 지표면 생활공간을 대상으로 한 전파경로손실 예측모델을 해수면 자유공간에 적용하는 경우, 전파경로손실은 실측값보다 더 적고, 한편 서비스 가능 최대 직선거리는 더 짧게 예측된다. 그러므로 본 연구에서는 CDMA방식 이동 통신 주파수대역을 중심으로 해수면 자유공간에서의 전파경로손실을 보다 정확히 예측하기 위한 모델을 제안하여 시뮬레이션하고 이를 현장 실측결과와 비교함으로써 그 실용성을 검증한다.