• Title/Summary/Keyword: mixed-effects model

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Mixed-effects zero-inflated Poisson regression for analyzing the spread of COVID-19 in Daejeon (혼합효과 영과잉 포아송 회귀모형을 이용한 대전광역시 코로나 발생 동향 분석)

  • Kim, Gwanghee;Lee, Eunjee
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.375-388
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    • 2021
  • This paper aims to help prevent the spread of COVID-19 by analyzing confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Daejeon. A high volume of visitors, downtown areas, and psychological fatigue with prolonged social distancing were considered as risk factors associated with the spread of COVID-19. We considered the weekly confirmed cases in each administrative district as a response variable. Explanatory variables were the number of passengers getting off at a bus station in each administrative district and the elapsed time since the Korean government had imposed distancing in daily life. We employed a mixed-effects zero-inflated Poisson regression model because the number of cases was repeatedly measured with excess zero-count data. We conducted k-means clustering to identify three groups of administrative districts having different characteristics in terms of the number of bars, the population size, and the distance to the closest college. Considering that the number of confirmed cases might vary depending on districts' characteristics, the clustering information was incorporated as a categorical explanatory variable. We found that Covid-19 was more prevalent as population size increased and a district is downtown. As the number of passengers getting off at a downtown district increased, the confirmed cases significantly increased.

Analysis of Effects of Autonomous Vehicle Market Share Changes on Expressway Traffic Flow Using IDM (IDM을 이용한 자율주행자동차 시장점유율 변화가 고속도로 교통류에 미치는 영향 분석)

  • Ko, Woori;Park, Sangmin;So, Jaehyun(Jason);Yun, Ilsoo
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.20 no.4
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    • pp.13-27
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    • 2021
  • In this study, the impact of traffic flow on the market penetration rate of autonomous vehicles(AV) was analyzed using the data for the year 2020 of the Yongin IC~Yangji IC section of Yeongdong Expressway. For this analysis, a microscopic traffic simulation model VISSIM was utilized. To construct the longitudinal control of the AV, the Intelligent Driver Model(IDM) was built and applied, and the driving behavior was verified by comparison with a normal vehicle. An examination of the study results of mobility and safety according to the market penetration rate of the AV, showed that the network's mobility improves as the market penetration rate increases. However, from the point of view of safety, the network becomes unstable when normal vehicles and AVs are mixed, so there should be a focus on traffic management for ensuring safety in mixed traffic situations.

The Effect of Long-Term Care Ratings and Benefit Utilization Characteristics on Healthcare Use (노인장기요양 등급 및 급여 특성이 의료이용에 미치는 영향)

  • Kang Ju Son;Seung-Jin Oh;Jong-Min Yoon
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.295-310
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    • 2023
  • Background: The long-term care (LTC) group has higher rates of chronic disease and disability registration compared to the general older people population. There is a need to provide integrated medical services and care for LTC group. Consequently, this study aimed to identify medical usage patterns based on the ratings of LTC and the characteristics of benefits usage in the LTC group. Methods: This study employed the National Health Insurance Service Database to analyze the effects of demographic and LTC-related characteristics on medical usage from 2015 to 2019 using a repeated measures analysis. A longitudinal logit model was applied to binary data, while a linear mixed model was utilized for continuous data. Results: In the case of LTC ratings, a positive correlation was observed with overall medical usage. In terms of LTC benefit usage characteristics, a higher overall level of medical usage was found in the group using home care benefits. Detailed analysis by medical institution classification revealed a maintained correlation between care ratings and the volume of medical usage. However, medical usage by classification varied based on the characteristics of LTC benefit usage. Conclusion: This study identified a complex interaction between LTC characteristics and medical usage. Predicting the requisite medical services based on the LTC rating presented a challenge. Consequently, it becomes essential for the LTC group to continuously monitor medical and care needs, even after admission into the LTC system. To facilitate this, it is crucial to devise an LTC rating system that accurately reflects medical needs and to broaden the implementation of integrated medical-care policies.

The Development of Biomass Model for Pinus densiflora in Chungnam Region Using Random Effect (임의효과를 이용한 충남지역 소나무림의 바이오매스 모형 개발)

  • Pyo, Jungkee;Son, Yeong Mo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.106 no.2
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    • pp.213-218
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this study was to develop age-biomass model in Chungnam region containing random effect. To develop the biomass model by species and tree component, data for Pinus densiflora in central region is collected to 30 plots (150 trees). The mixed model were used to fixed effect in the age-biomass relation for Pinus densiflora, with random effect representing correlation of survey area were obtained. To verify the evaluation of the model for random effect, the akaike information criterion (abbreviated as, AIC) was used to calculate the variance-covariance matrix, and residual of repeated data. The estimated variance-covariance matrix, and residual were -1.0022, 0.6240, respectively. The model with random effect (AIC=377.2) has low AIC value, comparison with other study relating to random effects. It is for this reason that random effect associated with categorical data were used in the data fitting process, the model can be calibrated to fit the Chungnam region by obtaining measurements. Therefore, the results of this study could be useful method for developing biomass model using random effects by region.

A Model-generated Circulation in the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea: I. Depth-mean Flow Fields

  • Jung, Kyung-Tae;Kang, Hyoun-Woo;So, Jae-Kwi;Lee, Ho-Jin
    • Ocean and Polar Research
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    • v.23 no.3
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    • pp.223-242
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    • 2001
  • This paper presents the depth-mean monthly variation in the circulation of the Yellow Sea and the East China Sea computed using a robust diagnostic model. The mixed three-dimensional finite-difference Galerkin function model developed by Lee et at. (2000, 2001) has been extended to take into account baroclinic effects and then used to calculate the depth-mean flow fields as part of the results. In addition to M2 tide and oceanic flows previously considered, the model has been driven by the monthly mean wind stresses from Na and Seo (1998), the density gradient calculated based on by GDEM data set released by US Navy. Model results are very encouraging in that many of observed features including Jeju Cyclonic Gyre and frontal eddies along the shelfside of the Kuroshio main stream and west of Kyushu, are satisfactorily reproduced and are expected to be of value in interpreting observations in various oceanograhic disciplines.

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A FINITE-VISCOELASTIC CONTINUUM MODEL FOR RUBBER AND ITS FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS

  • Kim, Seung-Jo;Kim, Kyeong-Su;Cho, Jin-Yeon
    • Journal of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.97-109
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    • 1995
  • In this paper, a finite viscoelastic continuum model for rubber and its finite element analysis are presented. This finite viscoelatic model based on continuum mechanics is an extended model of Johnson and Wuigley's 1-D model. In this extended model, continuum based kinematic measures are rigorously defied and by using this kinematic measures, elastic stage law and flow rule are introduced. In kinematics, three configuration are introduced. In kinematics, three configuration are introduced. They are reference, current and virtual visco configurations. In elastic state law, it is assumed that at a certain time, there exists an elastic potential which describes the recoverable elastic energy. From this elastic potential, elastic state law is derived. The proposed flow rule is based on phenomenological observation. The flow rule gives precise relaxation response. In finite element approximation, mixed Lagrangian description is used, where total and similar method of updated Lagrangian descriptions are used together. This approach reduces the numerical job and gives simple nonlinear syatem of equations. To satisfy the incompressible condition, penalty-type modified Mooney-Rivlin energy function is adopted. By this method nearly incompressible condition is obtain the virtual visco configuration. For verification, uniaxial stretch tests are simulated for various stretch rates. The simulated results show good agreement with experiments. As a practical experiments. As a preactical example, pressurized rubber plate is simulated. The result shows finite viscoelastic effects clearly.

Life Prediction of Hydraulic Concrete Based on Grey Residual Markov Model

  • Gong, Li;Gong, Xuelei;Liang, Ying;Zhang, Bingzong;Yang, Yiqun
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.457-469
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    • 2022
  • Hydraulic concrete buildings in the northwest of China are often subject to the combined effects of low-temperature frost damage, during drying and wetting cycles, and salt erosion, so the study of concrete deterioration prediction is of major importance. The prediction model of the relative dynamic elastic modulus (RDEM) of four different kinds of modified concrete under the special environment in the northwest of China was established using Grey residual Markov theory. Based on the available test data, modified values of the dynamic elastic modulus were obtained based on the Grey GM(1,1) model and the residual GM(1,1) model, combined with the Markov sign correction, and the dynamic elastic modulus of concrete was predicted. The computational analysis showed that the maximum relative error of the corrected dynamic elastic modulus was significantly reduced, from 1.599% to 0.270% for the BS2 group. The analysis error showed that the model was more adjusted to the concrete mixed with fly ash and mineral powder, and its calculation error was significantly lower than that of the rest of the groups. The analysis of the data for each group proved that the model could predict the loss of dynamic elastic modulus of the deterioration of the concrete effectively, as well as the number of cycles when the concrete reached the damaged state.

Development of Coupled SWAT-SWMM to Evaluate Effects of LID on Flow Reduction in Complex Landuse (복합토지유역에서의 LID적용에 따른 유출량 저감효과 분석을 위한 SWAT-SWMM 연계모델 개발)

  • Woo, Won Hee;Ryu, Jichul;Moon, Jong Pill;Jang, Chun Hwa;Kum, Donghyuk;Kang, Hyunwoo;Kim, Ki-Sung;Lim, Kyoung Jae
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.495-504
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    • 2012
  • In recent years, urbanization has been a hot issues in watershed management due to increased pollutant loads from impervious urban areas. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been widely used in hydrology and water quality studies at watershed scale. However, the SWAT has limitations in simulating water flows between HRUs and hydrological effects of LID practices. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) has LID capabilities, but it does not simulate non-urban areas, especially agricultural areas. In this study, a SWAT-SWMM coupled model was developed to evaluate effects of LID practices on hydrology and water quality at mixed-landuse watersheds. This coupled SWAT-SWMM was evaluated by comparing calibrated flow with and without coupled SWAT-SWMM. As a result of this study, the $R^2$ and NSE values with SWAT are 0.951 and 0.937 for calibration period, and 0.882 and 0.875 for validation period, respectively. the $R^2$ and NSE values with SWAT-SWMM are 0.877 and 0.880 for validation period. Out of four LID scenarios simulated by SWAT-SWMM model, the green roof scenario was found to be most effective which reduces about 25% of rainfall-runoff flows.

Antioxidant and Neuroprotective Effects of Doenjang Prepared with Rhizopus, Pichia, and Bacillus

  • Kang, Su Jin;Seo, Ji Yeon;Cho, Kye Man;Lee, Chang Kwon;Kim, Jeong Hwan;Kim, Jong-Sang
    • Preventive Nutrition and Food Science
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.221-226
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    • 2016
  • A new type of doenjang was manufactured by mixing soaked soybean, koji (Rhizopus oryzae), cheonggukjang (Bacillus amyloliquefaciens MJ1-4 and B. amyloliquefaciens EMD17), and Pichia farinosa SY80 as a yeast, salt, and water, followed by fermentation with koji that was made by fermenting whole wheat with R. oryzae. The mixed culture doenjang was designed to have a more palatable flavor and stronger biological activities than the conventional product. The extract of mixed culture doenjang showed higher antioxidant activity than the commercial doenjang as evaluated by the ferric reducing antioxidant power assay although it was not significantly different from the commercial product in 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl and 2,2'-azino-bis(3-ethylbenzothiazoline-6-sulphonic acid) radical scavenging activities. Further, the mixed culture doenjang reduced intracellular reactive oxygen species levels and protected cells from glutamate-induced cytotoxicity more efficiently in human hippocampal HT22 neuroblastoma cells than the commercial doenjang. In conclusion, a newly-developed mixed culture doenjang had a strong antioxidant activity in vitro and cultured cell model systems, exhibited a potential to prevent oxidative stress-associated disorders although animal and clinical studies are needed to confirm its in vivo efficacy.

A Study on the Effects of the Type of Mixed Manning and the Ratio of Foreign Crew, the Acceptance and Adaptation of Cross-Culture to the Group Cohesiveness, Job Satisfaction and Organizational Commitment in Ship Organizations (외국인 선원의 혼승 형태와 비율, 이문화 수용 및 적응에 따른 선박조직의 집단응집성과 직무만족 및 조직몰입에 관한 연구)

  • Heo, Ki-Young;Kim, Jin-Pil;Shin, Yong-John
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.38 no.5
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    • pp.527-539
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    • 2014
  • This study establishes the research model and sets up the hypothesis in order to analyze the effect of the type of mixed manning and the ratio of foreign crew on the group cohesiveness, job satisfaction and organizational commitment in ship organizations and the moderating effect of the acceptance and adaptation of cross-culture. For statistical hypothesis testing, it conducts a questionnaire survey targeting mixed manning ships and examines empirically the inter-variables relation through the regression. The result of empirical research is that the group cohesiveness, job satisfaction and organizational commitment in the ship organization of Korean master(chief engineer) and foreign officers is higher than that of Korean master and officers. Moreover, it is found that the group cohesiveness of 31~50% foreign crew group is less than that of the others. However, There is no moderating effects of the acceptance and adaptation of cross-culture. Additionally, it demonstrates the higher job satisfaction and organizational commitment in the stronger cohesiveness groups. The finding suggests the rationale that shipping and ship management companies could raise the group cohesiveness, job satisfaction and organizational commitment by moderating the type of mixed manning and the ratio of foreign crew.