• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.37 no.1
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• pp.120-126
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• 2014

This paper deals with the economic value analysis of meteorological forecasts for a hypothetical inventory decision-making situation in the pharmaceutical industry. The value of Asian dust (AD) forecasts is assessed in terms of the expected value of profits by using a decision tree, which is transformed from the specific payoff structure. The forecast user is assumed to determine the inventory level by considering base profit, inventory cost, and lost sales cost. We estimate the information value of AD forecasts by comparing the two cases of decision-making with or without the AD forecast. The proposed method is verified for the real data of AD forecasts and events in Seoul during the period 2004~2008. The results indicate that AD forecasts can provide the forecast users with benefits, which have various ranges of values according to the relative rate of inventory and lost sales cost.

• Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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• v.46 no.3
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• pp.7-14
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• 2023

Recently, the importance of impact-based forecasting has increased along with the socio-economic impact of severe weather have emerged. As news articles contain unconstructed information closely related to the people's life, this study developed and evaluated a binary classification algorithm about snowfall damage information by using media articles text mining. We collected news articles during 2009 to 2021 which containing 'heavy snow' in its body context and labelled whether each article correspond to specific damage fields such as car accident. To develop a classifier, we proposed a probability-based classifier based on the ratio of the two conditional probabilities, which is defined as I/O Ratio in this study. During the construction process, we also adopted the n-gram approach to consider contextual meaning of each keyword. The accuracy of the classifier was 75%, supporting the possibility of application of news big data to the impact-based forecasting. We expect the performance of the classifier will be improve in the further research as the various training data is accumulated. The result of this study can be readily expanded by applying the same methodology to other disasters in the future. Furthermore, the result of this study can reduce social and economic damage of high impact weather by supporting the establishment of an integrated meteorological decision support system.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.125-136
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• 2018

Heavy snowfall disasters are the third most serious natural disasters, after typhoon and heavy rainfall disasters, in terms of economic disaster damage in South Korea. The average annual economic damage of heavy snowfall disasters was approximately eighty-eight billion won during the period of 2005-2014. In spite of significant economic damage, there have been few economic studies regarding heavy snowfall disasters in South Korea. The objective of this research is to identify the association between economic damage of heavy snowfall disasters and damage effect factors of snowfall amounts, snowfall days, population densities, and non-urban area ratios using a regression analysis model. Economic damage data sets of heavy snowfall disasters during the period of 2005-2014 were obtained from the Natural Disaster Yearbook published by the Ministry of Public Safety and Security. Weather-related data sets, such as snowfall amounts and snowfall days were collected from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Demographic and urban data sets, including population densities and non-urban area ratios, were provided by the Local Government Yearbook. Outcomes of this study can assist with heavy snowfall disaster management policies of South Korea.

• Atmosphere
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• v.14 no.3
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• pp.41-54
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• 2004

In this study, a brief overview on a WMO/WWRP program - The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) and discussions on perspectives and potential benefits of Asian countries are provided. THORPEX is aimed at accelerating improvements in the accuracy of 1 to 14-day high-impact weather forecasts with research objectives of: 1) predictability and dynamical processes; 2) observing systems; 3) data assimilation and observing strategies; and 4) societal and economic applications. Direct benefits of Asian countries from THORPEX include improvement of: 1) forecast skills in global models, which exerts positive impact on mesoscale forecasts; 2) typhoon forecasts through dropwindsonde observations; and 3) forecast skills for high-impact weather systems via increased observations in neighboring countries. Various indirect benefits for scientific researches are also discussed. Extensive adaptive observation studies are recommended for all high-impact weather systems coming into the Korean peninsula, and enhancement of observations in the highly sensitive regions for the forecast error growth is required to improve forecast skills in the peninsula, possibly through international collaborations with neighboring countries.

• Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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• 2009.07a
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• pp.492_493
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• 2009

In this paper, we analyzed relation between weather distribution and output of PV module. Equivalent circuit of PV module was derived. Output of PV array was calculated considering temperature and insolation as input. Output of PV array installed on the roof top was also measured. Then, comparison between results was carried out to verify that relation between input and output is appropriate. Distribution of insolation and temperature was derived from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration). Distribution of PV output was deduced, by considering weather distribution. The result of this paper can be used in economic analysis and reliability calculation.

• 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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• 2009.06a
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• pp.525-528
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• 2009

Power generation of wind turbine which is installed in wind farm should be measured to predict economic feasibility of wind farm. Also electric power company want to verify wind turbine performance which is stated by manufacturer. The International Electrotechnical Commission(IEC) published 61400-12-1 "Power performance measurements of electricity producing wind turbines" for test of wind turbine power performance. In this paper, measurable sector of wind speed is analysed based on IEC 61400-12-1 to verify power curve of wind turbine with various wind turbine in wind farm.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.66 no.4
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• pp.1-15
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• 2024

In recent years, climate change has been responsible for unusual weather patterns on a global scale. Droughts, natural disasters triggered by insufficient rainfall, can inflict significant social and economic consequences on the entire agricultural sector due to their widespread occurrence and the challenge in accurately predicting their onset. The frequency of drought occurrences in South Korea has been rapidly increasing since 2000, with notably severe droughts hitting regions such as Incheon, Gyeonggi, Gangwon, Chungbuk, and Gyeongbuk in 2015, resulting in significant agricultural and social damage. To prepare for future drought occurrences resulting from climate change, it is essential to develop long-term drought predictions and implement corresponding measures for areas prone to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report outlines a climate change scenario under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which integrates projected future socio-economic changes and climate change mitigation efforts derived from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). SSPs encompass a range of factors including demographics, economic development, ecosystems, institutions, technological advancements, and policy frameworks. In this study, various drought indices were calculated using SSP scenarios derived from 18 CMIP6 global climate models. The SSP5-8.5 scenario was employed as the climate change scenario, and meteorological drought indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Self-Calibrating Effective Drought Index (scEDI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were utilized to analyze the prediction and variability of future drought occurrences in South Korea.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.25 no.3
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• pp.236-244
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• 2023

The purpose of this study was to examine the economic feasibility of providing services according to the nationwide expansion of early warning services. The net present value method, one of the cost-benefit analysis methods, was applied to the analysis. As a benefit item that constituted the net present value, the damage reduction amount using crop insurance data and the willingness to pay for the use of early warning services were used. The cost items included system construction and maintenance costs, and text transmission costs. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the nationwide expansion of early warning services had economic feasibility, and its economic effect varied depending on the level of text message use (10 % to 40 %, 10 %p interval) of participating farmers. In the future, the economic effect of early warning services is expected to increase further due to the increase in the number of farmers participating in early warning services and the increase in crop damage caused by climate change. It is necessary to further enhance the economic effect of early warning services by actively utilizing information delivery means through apps or the web as well as text messages.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.580-585
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• 2009

Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs), caused by Cochlodinium polykrikoides that causative fishery mortality, impact on aquaculture and economic loss appear particularly in summer and fall seasons in the Korean seas. It was studied on characteristics of HABs in the South Sea of Korea by using satellite and in-situ data. The in-situ data encompassed oceanic and meteorological data from July to October 2002-2008 and satellite data from July to October 2002-2006. Chlorophyll concentrations were calculated using Seaviewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor images by an Ocean Color (OC4) algorithm, and HABs were estimated using the Red tide index Chlorophyll Algorithm (RCA). The HAB occurrences were dominant when water temperature was $22.6-28^{\circ}C$ in August. The frequency of the individual numbers during 2002-2008, the HABs more than 1000 cells/ml (alert condition), were 73.57 %. In meteorological data from July to September during 2002-2008, the average precipitation, the mean air temperature, the mean wind speed and direction, and the sunshine were 9.31 mm/day, $24.07^{\circ}C$, 2.34 m/s and easterly, and 1-11 h, respectively. Our results suggest that the upwelling is caused by southwesterly wind in summer season and the Tsushima Warm Current which have influenced on the dispersion and moving of HAB (chlorophyll). In addition, the fresh water from Nakdong River, as the source of nutrients, also influences the occurrence of HABs.

• Atmosphere
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.229-241
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• 2011

The continuous urbanizations by a rapid economic growth and a steady increase in population are expected to have a possible impact on meteorology in the downwind region. Long-term (1972~2007) trends of precipitation have been examined in the mid-Korean peninsula for the westerly condition only, along with the sensitivity simulations for a golden day (11 February 2009). During the long-term period, both precipitation amount (PA) and frequency (PF) in the downwind region (Chuncheon, Wonju, Hongcheon) of urban area significantly increased for the westerly and light precipitation ($PA{\leq}1mm\;d^{-1}$) cases, whereas PA and PF in the mountainous region (Daegwallyeong) decreased. The enhancement ratio of PA and PF for the downwind region vs. urban region remarkably increased, which implies a possible urbanization effect on downwind precipitation. In addition, the WRF simulation applied for one golden day demonstrates enhanced updraft and its associated convergence in the downwind area (about 60 km), leading to an increase in the cloud mixing ratio. The sensitivity experiments with the change in surface roughness demonstrates a slight increase in cloud water mixing ratio but a negligible effect on precipitation in the upwind region, whereas those with the change in heat source represents the distinctive convergence and its associated updraft in the downwind region but a decrease in liquid water, which may be attributable to the evaporation of cloud droplet by atmospheric heating induced by an increase in an anthropogenic heat. In spite of limitations in the observation-based analysis and one-day simulation, the current result could provide an evidence of the effect of urbanization on the light precipitation in the downwind region.