• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제23권4호
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• pp.343-353
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• 2016

In doubly-censored data, an originating event time and a terminating event time are interval-censored. In certain analyses of such data, a researcher might be interested in the elapsed time between the originating and terminating events as well as regression modeling with risk factors. Therefore, in this study, we introduce a model evaluation method to measure the predictive ability of a model based on negative predictive values. We use a semiparametric estimate of the predictive accuracy to provide a simple and flexible method for model evaluation of doubly-censored survival outcomes. Additionally, we used simulation studies and tested data from a prostate cancer trial to illustrate the practical advantages of our approach. We believe that this method could be widely used to build prediction models or nomograms.

• 기본간호학회지
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.444-452
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• 2012

Purpose: To explore the usefulness of previous fall history as a triage variable for inpatients. Methods: Medical records of 21,382 patients, admitted to medical units of one tertiary hospital, were analyzed retrospectively. Inpatient falls were identified from the hospital's self-report system. Non-falls in 1,125 patients were selected by a stratified matching sampling with 125 patients with falls (0.59%). A comparative and predictive accuracy analysis was conducted to describe differences between the two groups with and without a history of falls. Logistic regression was used to measure the effect size of the fall history. Results: The fall history group showed higher prevalence by 9 fold than the non-fall history group. The relationships between falls and relevant variables which were significant in the non-fall history group, were not significant for the fall history group. Falls in the fall history group were 25 times more likely than in the non-fall group. Predictive accuracy of the risk assessment tool showed almost zero specificity in the fall history group. Conclusion: The presence of fall history, the fall prevalence, variables relevant to falls, and the accuracy of the risk tool were different, which support the usefulness of the fall history as a triage variable.

• 대한지역사회영양학회지
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• 제19권6호
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• pp.568-580
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• 2014

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to measure the resting metabolic rate (RMR) and to assess the accuracy of RMR predictive equations for Korean farmers. Methods: Subjects were 161 healthy Korean farmers (50 males, 111 females) in Gangwon-area. The RMR was measured by indirect calorimetry for 20 minutes following a 12-hour overnight fasting. Selected predictive equations were Harris-Benedict, Mifflin, Liu, KDRI, Cunningham (1980, 1991), Owen-W, F, FAO/WHO/UNU-W, WH, Schofield-W, WH, Henry-W, WH. The accuracy of the equations was evaluated on the basis of bias, RMSPE, accurate prediction and Bland-Altman plot. Further, new RMR predictive equations for the subjects were developed by multiple regression analysis using the variables highly related to RMR. Results: The mean of the measured RMR was 1703 kcal/day in males and 1343 kcal/day in females. The Cunningham (1980) equation was the closest to measured RMR than others in males and in females (males Bias -0.47%, RMSPE 110 kcal/day, accurate prediction 80%, females Bias 1.4%, RMSPE 63 kcal/day, accurate prediction 81%). Body weight, BMI, circumferences of waist and hip, fat mass and FFM were significantly correlated with measured RMR. Thus, derived prediction equation as follow : males RMR = 447.5 + 17.4 Wt, females RMR = 684.5 - 3.5 Ht + 11.8 Wt + 12.4 FFM. Conclusions: This study showed that Cunningham (1980) equation was the most accurate to predict RMR of the subjects. Thus, Cunningham (1980) equation could be used to predict RMR of Korean farmers studied in this study. Future studies including larger subjects should be carried out to develop RMR predictive equations for Korean farmers.

• Nutrition Research and Practice
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• 제6권1호
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• pp.51-60
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• 2012

Weight-controlling can be supported by a proper prescription of energy intake. The individual energy requirement is usually determined through resting energy expenditure (REE) and physical activity. Because REE contributes to 60-70% of daily energy expenditure, the assessment of REE is very important. REE is often predicted using various equations, which are usually based on the body weight, height, age, gender, and so on. The aim of this study is to validate the published predictive equations for resting energy expenditure in 76 normal weight and 52 obese Korean children and adolescents in the 7-18 years old age group. The open-circuit indirect calorimetry using a ventilated hood system was used to measure REE. Sixteen REE predictive equations were included, which were based on weight and/or height of children and adolescents, or which were commonly used in clinical settings despite its use based on adults. The accuracy of the equations was evaluated on bias, RMSPE, and percentage of accurate prediction. The means of age and height were not significantly different among the groups. Weight and BMI were significantly higher in obese group (64.0 kg, $25.9kg/m^2$) than in the non-obese group (44.8 kg, $19.0kg/m^2$). For the obese group, the Molnar, Mifflin, Liu, and Harris-Benedict equations provided the accurate predictions of > 70% (87%, 79% 77%, and 73%, respectively). On the other hand, for non-obese group, only the Molnar equation had a high level of accuracy (bias of 0.6%, RMSPE of 90.4 kcal/d, and accurate prediction of 72%). The accurate prediction of the Schofield (W/WH), WHO (W/WH), and Henry (W/WH) equations was less than 60% for all groups. Our results showed that the Molnar equation appears to be the most accurate and precise for both the non-obese and the obese groups. This equation might be useful for clinical professionals when calculating energy needs in Korean children and adolescents.

• 한국조사연구학회지:조사연구
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.25-48
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• 2011

본 연구에서는 선거 출구조사에서 발생하는 편향을 분석하기 위해, 먼저 2010년 전국동시지방선거 출구조사의 표본설계와 표본추출오차, 그리고 무응답 현황 및 예측오차 등을 살펴보고, 이를 토대로 출구조사에서 체계적으로 발생하는 지역별 편향 문제를 다루었다. 출구조사에서 발생하는 편향을 통계적으로 검증하기 위해 Martin et al.(2005)이 제안한 예측 정확성 척도인 통계량 A를 사용하였다. 2010년 지방선거를 포함해 2006년 지방선거와 2007년 대통령 선거 방송사 출구조사 자료를 토대로 시 도 단위에서 지역별 편향을 분석해 본 결과, 여당 성향이 강한 지역에서는 여당 후보를 과대 추정하는 편향이 체계적으로 발생하고 있으며, 여당 성향이 강해질수록 이런 편향이 더 강해진다는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 이런 연구결과는 향후 출구조사의 정확성 제고를 위한 방안을 모색하는 데 크게 기여할 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

• 한국임상수의학회지
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• 제32권4호
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• pp.319-323
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• 2015

The performance of diagnostic test accuracy is usually summarized by a variety of statistics such as sensitivity, specificity, predictive value, likelihood ratio, and kappa. These indices are most commonly presented when evaluations of competing diagnostic tests are reported, and it is of utmost importance to compare the accuracies of diagnostic tests to decide on the best available test for certain medical disorder. However, it is important to emphasize that specific point values of these indices are merely estimates. If parameter estimates are reported without a measure of uncertainty (precision), knowledgeable readers cannot know the range within which the true values of the indices are likely to lie. Therefore, when evaluations of diagnostic accuracy are reported the precision of estimates should be stated in parallel. To reflect the precision of any estimate of a diagnostic performance characteristic or of the difference between performance characteristics, the computation of confidential interval (CI), an indicator of precision, is widely used in medical literatures in that CIs are more informative to interpret test results than the simple point estimates. The majority of peer-reviewed journals usually require CIs to be specified for descriptive estimates, whereas domestic veterinary journals seem less vigilant on this issues. This paper describes how to calculate the indices and associated CIs using practical examples when assessing diagnostic test performance.

• 지능정보연구
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• 제14권4호
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• pp.179-200
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• 2008

본 연구에서는 사례기반 추론 기법을 대상으로 효율성과 효과성을 함께 증진시킬 수 있는 속성선정 방법을 개발하였다. 기본적으로, 본 연구에서 개발한 속성선정 방법은 기존에 개발된 단변량 분석 방법과 LVF 알고리즘을 통합하는 것이다. 먼저, 단변량 분석 방법 중 선택효과를 사용하여 전체 속성 중에서 예측력이 우수하다고 판단되는 일부분의 속성들을 추려낸다. 이 속성들로부터 생성해낼 수 있는 모든 가능한 부분집합을 생성해낸 후에, LVF 알고리즘을 이용하여 이 부분집합들이 가지는 불일치 비율을 평가함으로써 최종적으로 속성 부분집합을 선정한다. 본 연구에서 개발한 속성선정 방법을 UCI에서 제공하는 데이터 집합들에 적용하여 성능을 측정한 후, 기존 기법의 성능들과 비교한 결과, 본 연구에서 개발된 속성선정 방법이 선정된 속성의 개수도 만족할만하고 적중률도 향상되어서, 효율성과 효과성 모두의 측면에서 우수함을 보였다.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• 제20권8호
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• pp.1300-1310
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• 2019

Objective: To measure the diagnostic accuracy of percutaneous transthoracic needle lung biopsies (PTNBs) on the basis of the intention-to-diagnose principle and identify risk factors for diagnostic failure of PTNBs in a multi-institutional setting. Materials and Methods: A total of 9384 initial PTNBs performed in 9239 patients (mean patient age, 65 years [range, 20-99 years]) from January 2010 to December 2014 were included. The accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of PTNBs for diagnosis of malignancy were measured. The proportion of diagnostic failures was measured, and their risk factors were identified. Results: The overall accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 91.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 90.6-91.7%), 92.5% (95% CI, 91.9-93.1%), 86.5% (95% CI, 85.0-87.9%), 99.2% (95% CI, 99.0-99.4%), and 84.3% (95% CI, 82.7-85.8%), respectively. The proportion of diagnostic failures was 8.9% (831 of 9384; 95% CI, 8.3-9.4%). The independent risk factors for diagnostic failures were lesions ≤ 1 cm in size (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.86; 95% CI, 1.23-2.81), lesion size 1.1-2 cm (1.75; 1.45-2.11), subsolid lesions (1.81; 1.32-2.49), use of fine needle aspiration only (2.43; 1.80-3.28), final diagnosis of benign lesions (2.18; 1.84-2.58), and final diagnosis of lymphomas (10.66; 6.21-18.30). Use of cone-beam CT (AOR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.13-0.75) and conventional CT-guidance (0.55; 0.32-0.94) reduced diagnostic failures. Conclusion: The accuracy of PTNB for diagnosis of malignancy was fairly high in our large-scale multi-institutional cohort. The identified risk factors for diagnostic failure may help reduce diagnostic failure and interpret the biopsy results.

• ETRI Journal
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• 제45권4호
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• pp.713-723
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• 2023

Game bots are illegal programs that facilitate account growth and goods acquisition through continuous and automatic play. Early detection is required to minimize the damage caused by evolving game bots. In this study, we propose a game bot detection method based on action time intervals (ATIs). We observe the actions of the bots in a game and identify the most frequently occurring actions. We extract the frequency, ATI average, and ATI standard deviation for each identified action, which is to used as machine learning features. Furthermore, we measure the performance using actual logs of the Aion game to verify the validity of the proposed method. The accuracy and precision of the proposed method are 97% and 100%, respectively. Results show that the game bots can be detected early because the proposed method performs well using only data from a single day, which shows similar performance with those proposed in a previous study using the same dataset. The detection performance of the model is maintained even after 2 months of training without any revision process.

• International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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• 제22권5호
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• pp.348-358
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• 2022

Software fault prediction is a method to compute fault in the software sections using software properties which helps to evaluate the quality of software in terms of cost and effort. Recently, several software fault detection techniques have been proposed to classifying faulty or non-faulty. However, for such a person, and most studies have shown the power of predictive errors in their own databases, the performance of the software is not consistent. In this paper, we propose a hybrid soft computing technique for SFP based on optimal feature extraction and classification (HST-SFP). First, we introduce the bat induced butterfly optimization (BBO) algorithm for optimal feature selection among multiple features which compute the most optimal features and remove unnecessary features. Second, we develop a layered recurrent neural network (L-RNN) based classifier for predict the software faults based on their features which enhance the detection accuracy. Finally, the proposed HST-SFP technique has the more effectiveness in some sophisticated technical terms that outperform databases of probability of detection, accuracy, probability of false alarms, precision, ROC, F measure and AUC.