• Title/Summary/Keyword: meaningful error

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Improvement of Attention and Short-term Memory of Mild Dementia Using iPad Applications: A Single Case Study (아이패드를 이용한 경도 치매 노인의 주의집중력과 단기 기억력 증진 : 단일대상연구)

  • Hwangbo, Seung Woo;Kim, Moon-Young;Kim, Jongbae;Park, Hae Yean
    • Therapeutic Science for Rehabilitation
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.47-58
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    • 2018
  • Objective : This study was conducted to investigate the effects of iPad applications on improvement of attention and short-term memory in mild dementia. Methods : A single-case experimental study using A-B-A design was conducted. A total of 20 sessions, including 5 each for baseline phase A and A' and 10 for the intervention phase, were provided to the subject. Interventions were only provided during the intervention phase and were iOS-based iPad applications named "Memorado-Moving Balls" and "Circles." "Fit Brains-Matching Pairs" and "Fit-Brains-Spot the Difference" were used for each session to evaluate attention and short-term memory. MMSE-K, K-TMT-e A and B, and DST assessment tools were used pre- and post-intervention to assess attention and memory. Result : Fit Brains scores indicated improvement in both attention and memory during the intervention phase. K-TMT-e A showed 3 increased correct points and 3 reduced error points, and B showed 7 increased correct points and 2 reduced error points in post-tests, but the DST and MMSE-K showed no meaningful change. Conclusion : This single-case study identified improvements in attention and short-term memory in a person with mild dementia using iPad applications. Further studies regarding different applications and larger samples with long-term designs are necessary.

The Development of Neural Network Model to Improve the Reliability of the Demand/Effort Model for Evaluating Highway Safety (도로위험도를 평가하는 요구/노력모형의 신뢰도 향상을 위한 신경망 모형 개발)

  • Jeong, Bong-Jo;Gang, Jae-Su;Jang, Myeong-Sun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.95-105
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    • 2009
  • Traffic accidents on highways are likely to happen when there is an imbalance in the complex relationships among key elements such as road geometries, driver related factors, and mechanical performances. The Demand-Effort Model (DEM), which evaluates highway safety, can be explained by the imbalance, which occurs when the level of demand of the driver's attention to the road environment exceeds that of the response from the driver. This study suggests a new model that improves the reliability of the current DEM through the reinterpretation on the physiological signals with the help of the Neural Network Model (NNM). The data were collected from 149 subjects, who drove a test vehicle on the Yongdong, Honam, and Seohaean Expressways in Korea. Three important results could be drawn from the recursive tests as follows; (1) Only 5 out of 10 parameters on the physiological signals which are currently used were proven to be meaningful through the Normality Test, Cluster Analysis, and Mann-Whitney Analysis. (2) The revised DEM, which internally uses the NNM, showed more reliable results than existing DEM. Group 1, which is based on the new DEM showed 80.0% of accuracy in measuring the level of driver's efforts, however, that of Group 2 based on the current DEM was 74.3%. (3) Field tests on the Honam Expressway showed lower 'type II error' with the new DEM (40.5%) than the old DEM (58.8%). The DEM is designed as a quick and easy way to determine highway safety prior to the minute road safety audit (RSA) by a professional audit team. Then a new DEM, which is based on the NNM, needs to be considered since it showed higher reliability and lower error.

A Study on the stock price prediction and influence factors through NARX neural network optimization (NARX 신경망 최적화를 통한 주가 예측 및 영향 요인에 관한 연구)

  • Cheon, Min Jong;Lee, Ook
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.8
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    • pp.572-578
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    • 2020
  • The stock market is affected by unexpected factors, such as politics, society, and natural disasters, as well as by corporate performance and economic conditions. In recent days, artificial intelligence has become popular, and many researchers have tried to conduct experiments with that. Our study proposes an experiment using not only stock-related data but also other various economic data. We acquired a year's worth of data on stock prices, the percentage of foreigners, interest rates, and exchange rates, and combined them in various ways. Thus, our input data became diversified, and we put the combined input data into a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX) model. With the input data in the NARX model, we analyze and compare them to the original data. As a result, the model exhibits a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.08 as being the most accurate when we set 10 neurons and two delays with a combination of stock prices and exchange rates from the U.S., China, Europe, and Japan. This study is meaningful in that the exchange rate has the greatest influence on stock prices, lowering the error from RMSE 0.589 when only closing data are used.

Investigation on Granger Causality between Economic Growth and Demand for Electricity in Korea: Using Quarterly Data (한국의 경제성장과 전력수요간의 인과성에 관한 연구: 분기별 자료를 이용하여)

  • Baek, Moon-Young;Kim, Woo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.89-99
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    • 2012
  • This study investigates the Granger-causality between economic growth and demand for electricity in Korea, using two quarterly time-series data (real GDP and electricity consumption) for 1970:Q1 through 2009:Q4. We apply Hsiao's sequential procedure to identify a vector autoregressive model to a decision of the optimal lags in the vector error-correction model because the two time-series data contain unit roots respectively and they are cointegrated. According to the empirical results in this study, we find that Hsiao's approach to the Granger-causality indicates a bidirectional causal relation between economic growth and demand for electricity in Korea. Following the Granger and Engle's approach, we also find the statistical evidence on (1) short-run bidirectional causality between real GDP and electricity consumption, (2) bidirectional strong causality between them, and (3) long-run unidirectional causality running from demand for electricity to economic growth. Our results show an inconsistency with the existing studies on Korea's case; however, the results appear to provide more meaningful policy implications for the Korean economy and its strategy of sustainable growth.

Prediction of Dry Matter Intake in Lactating Holstein Dairy Cows Offered High Levels of Concentrate

  • Rim, J.S.;Lee, S.R.;Cho, Y.S.;Kim, E.J.;Kim, J.S.;Ha, Jong K.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.21 no.5
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    • pp.677-684
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    • 2008
  • Accurate estimation of dry matter intake (DMI) is a prerequisite to meet animal performance targets without penalizing animal health and the environment. The objective of the current study was to evaluate some of the existing models in order to predict DMI when lactating dairy cows were offered a total mixed ration containing a high level of concentrates and locally produced agricultural by-products. Six popular models were chosen for DMI prediction (Brown et al., 1977; Rayburn and Fox, 1993; Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries Research Council Secretariat, 1999; National Research Council (NRC), 2001; Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System (CNCPS), Fox et al., 2003; Fuentes-Pila et al., 2003). Databases for DMI comparison were constructed from two different sources: i) 12 commercial farm investigations and ii) a controlled dairy cow experiment. The model evaluation was performed using two different methods: i) linear regression analysis and ii) mean square error prediction analysis. In the commercial farm investigation, DMI predicted by Fuentes-Pila et al. (2003) was the most accurate when compared with the actual mean DMI, whilst the CNCPS prediction showed larger mean bias (difference between mean predicted and mean observed values). Similar results were observed in the controlled dairy cow experiment where the mean bias by Fuentes-Pila et al. (2003) was the smallest of all six chosen models. The more accurate prediction by Fuentes-Pila et al. (2003) could be attributed to the inclusion of dietary factors, particularly fiber as these factors were not considered in some models (i.e. NRC, 2001; CNCPS (Fox et al., 2003)). Linear regression analysis had little meaningful biological significance when evaluating models for prediction of DMI in this study. Further research is required to improve the accuracy of the models, and may recommend more mechanistic approaches to investigate feedstuffs (common to the Asian region), animal genotype, environmental conditions and their interaction, as the majority of the models employed are based on empirical approaches.

Stock Market Forecasting : Comparison between Artificial Neural Networks and Arch Models

  • Merh, Nitin
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2012
  • Data mining is the process of searching and analyzing large quantities of data for finding out meaningful patterns and rules. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one of the tools of data mining which is becoming very popular in forecasting the future values. Some of the areas where it is used are banking, medicine, retailing and fraud detection. In finance, artificial neural network is used in various disciplines including stock market forecasting. In the stock market time series, due to high volatility, it is very important to choose a model which reads volatility and forecasts the future values considering volatility as one of the major attributes for forecasting. In this paper, an attempt is made to develop two models - one using feed forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network and the other using Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) technique for forecasting stock market returns. Various parameters which are considered for the design of optimal ANN model development are input and output data normalization, transfer function and neuron/s at input, hidden and output layers, number of hidden layers, values with respect to momentum, learning rate and error tolerance. Simulations have been done using prices of daily close of Sensex. Stock market returns are chosen as input data and output is the forecasted return. Simulations of the Model have been done using MATLAB$^{(R)}$ 6.1.0.450 and EViews 4.1. Convergence and performance of models have been evaluated on the basis of the simulation results. Performance evaluation is done on the basis of the errors calculated between the actual and predicted values.

Problems of Big Data Analysis Education and Their Solutions (빅데이터 분석 교육의 문제점과 개선 방안 -학생 과제 보고서를 중심으로)

  • Choi, Do-Sik
    • Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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    • v.8 no.12
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    • pp.265-274
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    • 2017
  • This paper examines the problems of big data analysis education and suggests ways to solve them. Big data is a trend that the characteristic of big data is evolving from V3 to V5. For this reason, big data analysis education must take V5 into account. Because increased uncertainty can increase the risk of data analysis, internal and external structured/semi-structured data as well as disturbance factors should be analyzed to improve the reliability of the data. And when using opinion mining, error that is easy to perceive is variability and veracity. The veracity of the data can be increased when data analysis is performed against uncertain situations created by various variables and options. It is the node analysis of the textom(텍스톰) and NodeXL that students and researchers mainly use in the analysis of the association network. Social network analysis should be able to get meaningful results and predict future by analyzing the current situation based on dark data gained.

Bayesian Analysis of a Zero-inflated Poisson Regression Model: An Application to Korean Oral Hygienic Data (영과잉 포아송 회귀모형에 대한 베이지안 추론: 구강위생 자료에의 적용)

  • Lim, Ah-Kyoung;Oh, Man-Suk
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.505-519
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    • 2006
  • We consider zero-inflated count data, which is discrete count data but has too many zeroes compared to the Poisson distribution. Zero-inflated data can be found in various areas. Despite its increasing importance in practice, appropriate statistical inference on zero-inflated data is limited. Classical inference based on a large number theory does not fit unless the sample size is very large. And regular Poisson model shows lack of St due to many zeroes. To handle the difficulties, a mixture of distributions are considered for the zero-inflated data. Specifically, a mixture of a point mass at zero and a Poisson distribution is employed for the data. In addition, when there exist meaningful covariates selected to the response variable, loglinear link is used between the mean of the response and the covariates in the Poisson distribution part. We propose a Bayesian inference for the zero-inflated Poisson regression model by using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. We applied the proposed method to a Korean oral hygienic data and compared the inference results with other models. We found that the proposed method is superior in that it gives small parameter estimation error and more accurate predictions.

Relationship Between Accidents and Non-Homogeneous Geometrics: Main Line Sections on Interstates (기하구조의 비동질성을 고려한 교통사고와의 관계: 고속도로 본선구간을 중심으로)

  • Park, Min Ho;Noh, Kwan Sub;Kim, Jongmin
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.170-178
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    • 2014
  • Until now, several research on the relationship of traffic crash occurrences and geometric had been conducted and revealed that projects of road alignment, geometric improvement and hazardous segment selection reduced the number of accidents and accident severities. However, such variables did not consider the non-homogeneous characteristics of roadway segments due to the difficulty of data collection, which results in under-estimation of the standard error affecting the overall modeling goodness-of-fit. This study highlights the importance of non-homogeneity by looking at the effect of the non-homogeneous geometric variables through the modeling process. The model delivers meaningful results when using some geometric variables without relevant geometrics' variables.

Design and Experiment of a Micro Electronic System for Prediction of Alveolar-Gas Partial Pressures

  • Kim, Da-Jung;Chang, Keun-Shik;Kim, Sa-Ji;Park, Hye-Yun;Suh, Gee-Young
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.31 no.3
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    • pp.187-193
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    • 2010
  • In this study we have designed and fabricated an inexpensive micro electronic system that we call Alvitek. It can indirectly but accurately predict and display the partial pressures of alveolar oxygen and carbon dioxide for the patients in the ICU of a hospital. Alvitek consists of both hardware part and software part. Performance of the system is tested by animal experiment with pigs for various $F_{t}e_{2}$ and RR(Respiratory Rate) values under the mechanical ventilation. The predicted alveolar gas partial pressures are cprpared with the approximate alveolar oxygen partial pressures easily calculated by the physician’s bedside formula. As a result, we have concluded that the relative error of A-$aDe_2$ calculated by the bedside formula grows seriously for lower $F_{t}e_{2}$ values. The present prediction method of Alvitek is henceforth believed very meaningful to the physicians. The system hardware and software are described in the text.