• Title/Summary/Keyword: market price system

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A Study on the Application of Outlier Analysis for Fraud Detection: Focused on Transactions of Auction Exception Agricultural Products (부정 탐지를 위한 이상치 분석 활용방안 연구 : 농수산 상장예외품목 거래를 대상으로)

  • Kim, Dongsung;Kim, Kitae;Kim, Jongwoo;Park, Steve
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.93-108
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    • 2014
  • To support business decision making, interests and efforts to analyze and use transaction data in different perspectives are increasing. Such efforts are not only limited to customer management or marketing, but also used for monitoring and detecting fraud transactions. Fraud transactions are evolving into various patterns by taking advantage of information technology. To reflect the evolution of fraud transactions, there are many efforts on fraud detection methods and advanced application systems in order to improve the accuracy and ease of fraud detection. As a case of fraud detection, this study aims to provide effective fraud detection methods for auction exception agricultural products in the largest Korean agricultural wholesale market. Auction exception products policy exists to complement auction-based trades in agricultural wholesale market. That is, most trades on agricultural products are performed by auction; however, specific products are assigned as auction exception products when total volumes of products are relatively small, the number of wholesalers is small, or there are difficulties for wholesalers to purchase the products. However, auction exception products policy makes several problems on fairness and transparency of transaction, which requires help of fraud detection. In this study, to generate fraud detection rules, real huge agricultural products trade transaction data from 2008 to 2010 in the market are analyzed, which increase more than 1 million transactions and 1 billion US dollar in transaction volume. Agricultural transaction data has unique characteristics such as frequent changes in supply volumes and turbulent time-dependent changes in price. Since this was the first trial to identify fraud transactions in this domain, there was no training data set for supervised learning. So, fraud detection rules are generated using outlier detection approach. We assume that outlier transactions have more possibility of fraud transactions than normal transactions. The outlier transactions are identified to compare daily average unit price, weekly average unit price, and quarterly average unit price of product items. Also quarterly averages unit price of product items of the specific wholesalers are used to identify outlier transactions. The reliability of generated fraud detection rules are confirmed by domain experts. To determine whether a transaction is fraudulent or not, normal distribution and normalized Z-value concept are applied. That is, a unit price of a transaction is transformed to Z-value to calculate the occurrence probability when we approximate the distribution of unit prices to normal distribution. The modified Z-value of the unit price in the transaction is used rather than using the original Z-value of it. The reason is that in the case of auction exception agricultural products, Z-values are influenced by outlier fraud transactions themselves because the number of wholesalers is small. The modified Z-values are called Self-Eliminated Z-scores because they are calculated excluding the unit price of the specific transaction which is subject to check whether it is fraud transaction or not. To show the usefulness of the proposed approach, a prototype of fraud transaction detection system is developed using Delphi. The system consists of five main menus and related submenus. First functionalities of the system is to import transaction databases. Next important functions are to set up fraud detection parameters. By changing fraud detection parameters, system users can control the number of potential fraud transactions. Execution functions provide fraud detection results which are found based on fraud detection parameters. The potential fraud transactions can be viewed on screen or exported as files. The study is an initial trial to identify fraud transactions in Auction Exception Agricultural Products. There are still many remained research topics of the issue. First, the scope of analysis data was limited due to the availability of data. It is necessary to include more data on transactions, wholesalers, and producers to detect fraud transactions more accurately. Next, we need to extend the scope of fraud transaction detection to fishery products. Also there are many possibilities to apply different data mining techniques for fraud detection. For example, time series approach is a potential technique to apply the problem. Even though outlier transactions are detected based on unit prices of transactions, however it is possible to derive fraud detection rules based on transaction volumes.

Analyzing Dynamics of Korean Housing Market Using Causal Loop Structures (주택시장의 동태성 분석을 위한 시스템 사고의 적용에 관한 연구 - 인과순환지도를 중심으로 -)

  • Shin Hye-Sung;Sohn Jeong-Rak;Kim Jae-Jun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.6 no.3 s.25
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    • pp.144-155
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    • 2005
  • Since 1950s, the Korean housing market has continually experienced the chronicle lack of housing stock because of lower housing investment in comparison with a population explosion, prompt urbanization and rapid restructuring of family. The Korean housing market have thus been driven not by the pricing model by housing demand-supply chain but by the Korean housing policies focusing on the increase of housing supply and the living stability of the middle or low-income bracket. After all, repetitive economic vicious circle of housing price and the increase of unsold apartments aggravated the malfunction of the Korean housing market. Meanwhile, the Korean construction firms have exacerbated their profitability. Such terrible situations are mainly triggered by the Korean construction firms that weighed on the short-term profits and quick response of the government policy alterations rather than the prospect of housing market Therefore, this research focusing on the dynamics of housing market identified and classified the demand and supply elements that consist not only of housing system structures but also of the environmental elements that affect the structures. Based on the system thinking and traditional theory of consumer's choice, the interactions of these elements were constructed as a causal loop diagram that explains the mutual influences among housing subsystems with feedback loops. This paper describes and discusses about the causes of the dynamic changes in the Korean housing market. This study would help housing suppliers, including housing developers, construction firms, etc., to form a more comprehensive understanding on the fundamental issues that constitute the Korean housing market and thereby increasing their long term as well as minimizing the risk involved in the housing supply businesses.

An Exploratory Study on Apparel Distribution system and its Countermeasure in the view of Market Liberalization (유통시장 개방에 따른 패션 유통업의 현황과 대응방안에 관한 연구)

  • Hwang, Sun-Jin;Jung, Chan-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Clothing and Textiles
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.265-279
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    • 1993
  • The channel of distribution exists for the purpose of moving product from the manufactuerer to the final consumer. In order to satisfy consumer needs, channels provide for the those products to arrive at the right place, at the right time and in the quantity, quality and price desired. Currently, there has been an emerging interest in the improvement of distribution system in many areas of industries and Korean government because of a market liberalizatiion begun at 1989 and still has processed step by step. In the wave of market liberalization, an understanding of the channel of distribution and structure would be very crucial when developing the opportunities of competitive advantages in Korean apparel industry. The purposes of this study were to investigate the determinants of the distribution channel and to identify how to respond to the market liberalization for developing the possible future strategies in the apparel industry. Data for this study were obtained from interviews with managers in apparel company in addition to a questionnaire mailed to over 106 middle management position of apparel company. Data were analyzed by using descriptive statistics. The results of this study were summarized as follows. 1. In the distribution channel of the apparel industry, a vertical marketing system, comprising producer, apparel company, retailer, prevailed without intermediaries such as wholesalers or vendors. Especially, the apparel company controlled marketing channel members. This type of system may reflect added product cost and may be not advantageous to retailers and consumers because most apparel companies are responsible for its own transfortation, storage and stocks after season. 2. In the view of market liberalization, most apparrel companies showed double-edged viewpoints. In terms of positive aspect, it would give stimulus to broaden variety of fashion merchandise and to improve product quality of fashion merchanise which were the most disadvantageous factors in competing with oversea's brands. In terms of negative aspect, it would bring the bankruptcy of small or medium sized apparel firms and the foreign products' penetration in domestic market. From this study, severel recommedations were suggested forward to improve the present condition in apparel industry. They included eliminating the power of apparel company and reinforcing middlemen for more efficient distribution system and for satisfying consumer needs in rapidly changing environment. Also it included government supports, reinforcement of information system, improvement in channel structure, and career development program in conjunction with apparel companies and academic society for improving scientific management and future potential strategies in Korean apparal industry.

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Korean Enterprise Export Strategies to China Dependent on Trade Environment Changes

  • Ham, Ki-Soo;Lee, Sang-Youn
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.10
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    • pp.23-34
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - Currently, the foreign trade environment in China has shifted to a very different system. Korean enterprises have been forced to compete with Chinese enterprises in today's world market owing to the economic growth and technical improvement in China. Research design, data, and methodology - The author visited Korean export enterprises in Shanghai from January 5 to 12, 2014 to implement a questionnaire survey and conduct in-depth interviews with the local enterprises. The author investigated the Shenyang area using e-mail communication. For the questionnaire, one copy of the questionnaire was given to each business and to a staff member for each of the products when a company sold multiple products. Results - Selling cost advantage, efficiency of economic scale, and product differentiation had the most influence on Korean enterprises' export strategy to China. Additionally, entry barrier, product differentiation, and concentration all had an influence on Korean enterprise export strategy to China as well. Conclusion - Korean enterprises developed strategies for price priority, economies of scale, and product differentiation based on changes in the competitive structure in the Chinese market.

Evaluation of Generator Reactive Power Pricing Through Optimal Voltage Control under Deregulation

  • Jung Seung-Wan;Song Sung-Hwan;Yoon Yong Tae;Moon Seung-Il
    • KIEE International Transactions on Power Engineering
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    • v.5A no.3
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    • pp.228-234
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    • 2005
  • This paper presents the evaluation of reactive power pricing through the control of generator voltages under the assumption that the reactive power market has been transformed into the real power market. By applying the concept of economic dispatch, which minimizes the total cost of real power generation to reactive power generation, the algorithm for implementing reactive power pricing is proposed to determine the optimum voltage profiles of generators. It consists of reactive power voltage equation, the objective function that minimizes the total cost of reactive power generation, and linear analysis of inequality constraints in relation to the load voltages. From this algorithm, the total cost of the reactive power generation can be yielded to the minimum value within network constraints as the range of load voltages. This may provide the fair and reasonable price information for reactive power generation in the deregulated electricity market. The proposed algorithm has been tested on the IEEE 14-bus system using MATLAB.

Business Cycle Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns in Korea (경기순환주기 소비위험과 한국 주식 수익률 횡단면)

  • Kang, Hankil
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.44 no.4
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    • pp.98-105
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    • 2021
  • Using the frequency-based decomposition, I decompose the consumption growth to explain well-known patterns of stock returns in the Korean market. To be more specific, the consumption growth is decomposed by its half-life of shocks. The component over four years of half-life is called the business-cycle consumption component, and the components with half-lives under four years are short-run components. I compute the long-run and short-run components of stock excess returns as well and use component-by-component sensitivities to price stock portfolios. As a result, the business-cycle consumption risk with half-life of over four years is useful in explaining the cross-section of size-book-to-market portfolios and size-momentum portfolios in the Korean stock market. The short-run components have their own pricing abilities with mixed direction, so that the restricted one short-term factor model is rejected. The explanatory power with short- and long-run components is comparable to that of the Fama-French three-factor model. The components with one- to four-year half-lives are also helpful in explaining the returns. The results about the long-run components emphasize the importance of long-run component in consumption growth to explain the asset returns.

Clustering-driven Pair Trading Portfolio Investment in Korean Stock Market (한국 주식시장에서의 군집화 기반 페어트레이딩 포트폴리오 투자 연구)

  • Cho, Poongjin;Lee, Minhyuk;Song, Jae Wook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.45 no.3
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    • pp.123-130
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    • 2022
  • Pair trading is a statistical arbitrage investment strategy. Traditionally, cointegration has been utilized in the pair exploring step to discover a pair with a similar price movement. Recently, the clustering analysis has attracted many researchers' attention, replacing the cointegration method. This study tests a clustering-driven pair trading investment strategy in the Korean stock market. If a pair detected through clustering has a large spread during the spread exploring period, the pair is included in the portfolio for backtesting. The profitability of the clustering-driven pair trading strategies is investigated based on various profitability measures such as the distribution of returns, cumulative returns, profitability by period, and sensitivity analysis on different parameters. The backtesting results show that the pair trading investment strategy is valid in the Korean stock market. More interestingly, the clustering-driven portfolio investments show higher performance compared to benchmarks. Note that the hierarchical clustering shows the best portfolio performance.

Design and Implementation of Customized Farming Applications using Public Data (공공데이터를 이용한 맞춤형 영농 어플리케이션 설계 및 구현)

  • Ko, Jooyoung;Yoon, Sungwook;Kim, Hyenki
    • Journal of Korea Multimedia Society
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.772-779
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    • 2015
  • Advancing information technology have rapidly changed our service environment of life, culture, and industry. Computer information communication system is applied in medical, health, distribution, and business transaction. Smart is using new information by combining ability of computer and information. Although agriculture is labor intensive industry that requires a lot of hands, agriculture is becoming knowledge-based industry today. In agriculture field, computer communication system is applied on facilities farming and machinery Agricultural. In this paper, we designed and implemented application that provides personalized agriculture related information at the actual farming field. Also, this provides farmer a system that they can directly auction or sell their produced crops. We designed and implemented a system that parsing information of each seasonal, weather condition, market price, region based, crop, and disease and insects through individual setup on ubiquitous environment using location-based sensor network and processing data.

Development of the Decision Support System for Vendor-managed Inventory in the Retail Supply Chain (소매점 공급사슬에서 공급자 주도 재고를 위한 의사결정지원시스템의 개발)

  • Park, Yang-Byung;Shim, Kyu-Tak
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.343-353
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    • 2008
  • Vendor-managed inventory(VMI) is a supply chain strategy to improve the inventory turnover and customer service in supply chain management. Unfortunately, many VMI programs fail because they simply transfer the transactional aspects of placing replenishment orders from customer to vendor. In fact, such VMI programs often degrade supply chain performance because vendors lack capability to plan the VMI operations effectively in an integrated way under the dynamic, complex, and stochastic VMI supply chain environment. This paper presents a decision support system, termed DSSV, for VMI in the retail supply chain. DSSV supports the market forecasting, vendor's production planning, retailer's inventory replenishment planning, vehicle routing, determination of the system operating parameter values, retailer's purchase price decision, and what-if analysis. The potential benefits of DSSV include the provision of guidance, solution, and simulation environment for enterprises to reduce risks for their VMI supply chain operations.

Challenges and Effective Management of Supply Chain in Wine Industry and Agribusiness

  • Ngoe, Tata Joseph
    • Agribusiness and Information Management
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    • v.4 no.2
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    • pp.32-41
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    • 2012
  • Studies have shown that the future of the wine market rests on the effective and efficient changes in technology to the supply chain used by most of the major global players. In today's wine industry, companies are faced with the ever-shifting demand for their products, strict regulation and increasing price competition. Even at that, mature companies in the wine industry are succeeding by scaling up production, streamlining their supply chains, expanding into new geographic areas, implementing more efficient processes, cleverly marketing products, and focusing on ever closer relationships with suppliers, partners and customers. However, this paper looks at supply chain challenges in the wine industry from a global perspective presented in the inbound, manufacturing and outbound processes as well as offer effective solutions in order for companies to gain a competitive advantage and succeed on a global level.

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