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The Prediction of Export Credit Guarantee Accident using Machine Learning (기계학습을 이용한 수출신용보증 사고예측)

  • Cho, Jaeyoung;Joo, Jihwan;Han, Ingoo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.83-102
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    • 2021
  • The government recently announced various policies for developing big-data and artificial intelligence fields to provide a great opportunity to the public with respect to disclosure of high-quality data within public institutions. KSURE(Korea Trade Insurance Corporation) is a major public institution for financial policy in Korea, and thus the company is strongly committed to backing export companies with various systems. Nevertheless, there are still fewer cases of realized business model based on big-data analyses. In this situation, this paper aims to develop a new business model which can be applied to an ex-ante prediction for the likelihood of the insurance accident of credit guarantee. We utilize internal data from KSURE which supports export companies in Korea and apply machine learning models. Then, we conduct performance comparison among the predictive models including Logistic Regression, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN(Deep Neural Network). For decades, many researchers have tried to find better models which can help to predict bankruptcy since the ex-ante prediction is crucial for corporate managers, investors, creditors, and other stakeholders. The development of the prediction for financial distress or bankruptcy was originated from Smith(1930), Fitzpatrick(1932), or Merwin(1942). One of the most famous models is the Altman's Z-score model(Altman, 1968) which was based on the multiple discriminant analysis. This model is widely used in both research and practice by this time. The author suggests the score model that utilizes five key financial ratios to predict the probability of bankruptcy in the next two years. Ohlson(1980) introduces logit model to complement some limitations of previous models. Furthermore, Elmer and Borowski(1988) develop and examine a rule-based, automated system which conducts the financial analysis of savings and loans. Since the 1980s, researchers in Korea have started to examine analyses on the prediction of financial distress or bankruptcy. Kim(1987) analyzes financial ratios and develops the prediction model. Also, Han et al.(1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005, 2006) construct the prediction model using various techniques including artificial neural network. Yang(1996) introduces multiple discriminant analysis and logit model. Besides, Kim and Kim(2001) utilize artificial neural network techniques for ex-ante prediction of insolvent enterprises. After that, many scholars have been trying to predict financial distress or bankruptcy more precisely based on diverse models such as Random Forest or SVM. One major distinction of our research from the previous research is that we focus on examining the predicted probability of default for each sample case, not only on investigating the classification accuracy of each model for the entire sample. Most predictive models in this paper show that the level of the accuracy of classification is about 70% based on the entire sample. To be specific, LightGBM model shows the highest accuracy of 71.1% and Logit model indicates the lowest accuracy of 69%. However, we confirm that there are open to multiple interpretations. In the context of the business, we have to put more emphasis on efforts to minimize type 2 error which causes more harmful operating losses for the guaranty company. Thus, we also compare the classification accuracy by splitting predicted probability of the default into ten equal intervals. When we examine the classification accuracy for each interval, Logit model has the highest accuracy of 100% for 0~10% of the predicted probability of the default, however, Logit model has a relatively lower accuracy of 61.5% for 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. On the other hand, Random Forest, XGBoost, LightGBM, and DNN indicate more desirable results since they indicate a higher level of accuracy for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default but have a lower level of accuracy around 50% of the predicted probability of the default. When it comes to the distribution of samples for each predicted probability of the default, both LightGBM and XGBoost models have a relatively large number of samples for both 0~10% and 90~100% of the predicted probability of the default. Although Random Forest model has an advantage with regard to the perspective of classification accuracy with small number of cases, LightGBM or XGBoost could become a more desirable model since they classify large number of cases into the two extreme intervals of the predicted probability of the default, even allowing for their relatively low classification accuracy. Considering the importance of type 2 error and total prediction accuracy, XGBoost and DNN show superior performance. Next, Random Forest and LightGBM show good results, but logistic regression shows the worst performance. However, each predictive model has a comparative advantage in terms of various evaluation standards. For instance, Random Forest model shows almost 100% accuracy for samples which are expected to have a high level of the probability of default. Collectively, we can construct more comprehensive ensemble models which contain multiple classification machine learning models and conduct majority voting for maximizing its overall performance.

Estimation of Fresh Weight and Leaf Area Index of Soybean (Glycine max) Using Multi-year Spectral Data (다년도 분광 데이터를 이용한 콩의 생체중, 엽면적 지수 추정)

  • Jang, Si-Hyeong;Ryu, Chan-Seok;Kang, Ye-Seong;Park, Jun-Woo;Kim, Tae-Yang;Kang, Kyung-Suk;Park, Min-Jun;Baek, Hyun-Chan;Park, Yu-hyeon;Kang, Dong-woo;Zou, Kunyan;Kim, Min-Cheol;Kwon, Yeon-Ju;Han, Seung-ah;Jun, Tae-Hwan
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.329-339
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    • 2021
  • Soybeans (Glycine max), one of major upland crops, require precise management of environmental conditions, such as temperature, water, and soil, during cultivation since they are sensitive to environmental changes. Application of spectral technologies that measure the physiological state of crops remotely has great potential for improving quality and productivity of the soybean by estimating yields, physiological stresses, and diseases. In this study, we developed and validated a soybean growth prediction model using multispectral imagery. We conducted a linear regression analysis between vegetation indices and soybean growth data (fresh weight and LAI) obtained at Miryang fields. The linear regression model was validated at Goesan fields. It was found that the model based on green ratio vegetation index (GRVI) had the greatest performance in prediction of fresh weight at the calibration stage (R2=0.74, RMSE=246 g/m2, RE=34.2%). In the validation stage, RMSE and RE of the model were 392 g/m2 and 32%, respectively. The errors of the model differed by cropping system, For example, RMSE and RE of model in single crop fields were 315 g/m2 and 26%, respectively. On the other hand, the model had greater values of RMSE (381 g/m2) and RE (31%) in double crop fields. As a result of developing models for predicting a fresh weight into two years (2018+2020) with similar accumulated temperature (AT) in three years and a single year (2019) that was different from that AT, the prediction performance of a single year model was better than a two years model. Consequently, compared with those models divided by AT and a three years model, RMSE of a single crop fields were improved by about 29.1%. However, those of double crop fields decreased by about 19.6%. When environmental factors are used along with, spectral data, the reliability of soybean growth prediction can be achieved various environmental conditions.

Target-Aspect-Sentiment Joint Detection with CNN Auxiliary Loss for Aspect-Based Sentiment Analysis (CNN 보조 손실을 이용한 차원 기반 감성 분석)

  • Jeon, Min Jin;Hwang, Ji Won;Kim, Jong Woo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2021
  • Aspect Based Sentiment Analysis (ABSA), which analyzes sentiment based on aspects that appear in the text, is drawing attention because it can be used in various business industries. ABSA is a study that analyzes sentiment by aspects for multiple aspects that a text has. It is being studied in various forms depending on the purpose, such as analyzing all targets or just aspects and sentiments. Here, the aspect refers to the property of a target, and the target refers to the text that causes the sentiment. For example, for restaurant reviews, you could set the aspect into food taste, food price, quality of service, mood of the restaurant, etc. Also, if there is a review that says, "The pasta was delicious, but the salad was not," the words "steak" and "salad," which are directly mentioned in the sentence, become the "target." So far, in ABSA, most studies have analyzed sentiment only based on aspects or targets. However, even with the same aspects or targets, sentiment analysis may be inaccurate. Instances would be when aspects or sentiment are divided or when sentiment exists without a target. For example, sentences like, "Pizza and the salad were good, but the steak was disappointing." Although the aspect of this sentence is limited to "food," conflicting sentiments coexist. In addition, in the case of sentences such as "Shrimp was delicious, but the price was extravagant," although the target here is "shrimp," there are opposite sentiments coexisting that are dependent on the aspect. Finally, in sentences like "The food arrived too late and is cold now." there is no target (NULL), but it transmits a negative sentiment toward the aspect "service." Like this, failure to consider both aspects and targets - when sentiment or aspect is divided or when sentiment exists without a target - creates a dual dependency problem. To address this problem, this research analyzes sentiment by considering both aspects and targets (Target-Aspect-Sentiment Detection, hereby TASD). This study detected the limitations of existing research in the field of TASD: local contexts are not fully captured, and the number of epochs and batch size dramatically lowers the F1-score. The current model excels in spotting overall context and relations between each word. However, it struggles with phrases in the local context and is relatively slow when learning. Therefore, this study tries to improve the model's performance. To achieve the objective of this research, we additionally used auxiliary loss in aspect-sentiment classification by constructing CNN(Convolutional Neural Network) layers parallel to existing models. If existing models have analyzed aspect-sentiment through BERT encoding, Pooler, and Linear layers, this research added CNN layer-adaptive average pooling to existing models, and learning was progressed by adding additional loss values for aspect-sentiment to existing loss. In other words, when learning, the auxiliary loss, computed through CNN layers, allowed the local context to be captured more fitted. After learning, the model is designed to do aspect-sentiment analysis through the existing method. To evaluate the performance of this model, two datasets, SemEval-2015 task 12 and SemEval-2016 task 5, were used and the f1-score increased compared to the existing models. When the batch was 8 and epoch was 5, the difference was largest between the F1-score of existing models and this study with 29 and 45, respectively. Even when batch and epoch were adjusted, the F1-scores were higher than the existing models. It can be said that even when the batch and epoch numbers were small, they can be learned effectively compared to the existing models. Therefore, it can be useful in situations where resources are limited. Through this study, aspect-based sentiments can be more accurately analyzed. Through various uses in business, such as development or establishing marketing strategies, both consumers and sellers will be able to make efficient decisions. In addition, it is believed that the model can be fully learned and utilized by small businesses, those that do not have much data, given that they use a pre-training model and recorded a relatively high F1-score even with limited resources.

A Study on Lee, Man-Bu's Thought of Space and Siksanjeongsa with Special Reference of Prototype Landscape Analyzing Nuhangdo(陋巷圖) and Nuhangnok(陋巷錄) (누항도(陋巷圖)와 누항록(陋巷錄)을 통해 본 이만부의 공간철학과 식산정사의 원형경관)

  • Kahng, Byung-Seon;Lee, Seung-Yeon;Shin, Sang-Sup;Rho, Jae-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.39 no.2
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    • pp.15-28
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    • 2021
  • 'Cheonunjeongsa (天雲精舍)', designated as Gyeongsangbukdo Folklore Cultural Property No. 76, is a Siksanjeongsa built in 1700 by Manbu Lee Shiksan. In this study, we investigate the life and perspective of Manbu Lee in relation to Siksanjeongsa, and estimate the feng shui location, territoriality, and original landscape by analyzing 「Nuhangnok」 and 「Nuhando」, the results of his political management. The following results were derived by examining the philosophy that the scholar wanted to include in his space. First, Manbu Lee Shiksan was a representative hermit-type confucian scholar in the late Joseon Dynasty. 'Siksan', the name of the government official and the nickname of Manbu Lee, is derived from the mountain behind the village, and he wanted to rest in the four areas of thought(思), body(躬), speech(言), and friendship(交). During the difficult years of King Sukjong, Lee Manbu of a Namin family expressed his will to seclude through the title 'Siksan'. Second, There is a high possibility of restoration close to the original. Manbu Lee recorded the location of Siksanjeongsa, spatial structure, buildings and landscape facilities, trees, surrounding landscape, and usage behaviors in 「Nuhangnok」, and left a book of 《Nuhangdo》. Third, Manbu Lee refers to the feng shui geography view that Oenogok is closed in two when viewed from the outside, but is cozy and deep and can be seen from a far when entering inside. The whole village of Nogok was called Siksanjeongsa, which means through the name. It can be seen that the area was formed and expanded. Fourth, the spatial composition of Siksanjeongsa can be divided into a banquet space, an education space, a support space, a rest space, a vegetable and an herbal garden. The banquet space composed of Dang, Lu, and Yeonji is a personal space where Manbu Lee, who thinks about the unity of the heavenly people, the virtue of the gentleman, and humanity, is a place for lectures and a place to live. Fifth, Yangjeongjae area is an educational space, and Yangjeongjae is a name taken from the main character Monggwa, and it is a name that prayed for young students to grow brightly and academically. Sixth, the support space composed of Ganjijeong, Gobandae, and Sehandan is a place where the forested areas in the innermost part of Siksanjeongsa are cleared and a small pavilion is built using natural standing stones and pine trees as a folding screen. The virtue and grace of stopping. It contains the meaning of leisure and the wisdom of a gentleman. Seventh, outside the wall of Siksanjeongsa, across the eastern stream, an altar was built in a place with many old trees, called Yeonggwisa, and a place of rest was made by piling up an oddly shaped stone and planting flowers. Eighth, Manbu Lee, who knew the effects of vegetables and medicinal herbs in detail like the scholars of the Joseon Dynasty, cultivated a vegetable garden and an herbal garden in Jeongsa. Ninth, it can be seen that Lee Manbu realized the Neo-Confucian utopia in his political life by giving meaning to each space of Siksanjeongsa by naming buildings and landscaping facilities and planting them according to ancient events.

A Study on the Evaluation of Fertilizer Loss in the Drainage(Waste) Water of Hydroponic Cultivation, Korea (수경재배 유출 배액(폐양액)의 비료 손실량 평가 연구)

  • Jinkwan Son;Sungwook Yun;Jinkyung Kwon;Jihoon Shin;Donghyeon Kang;Minjung Park;Ryugap Lim
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.35-47
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    • 2023
  • Korean facility horticulture and hydroponic cultivation methods increase, requiring the management of waste water generated. In this study, the amount of fertilizer contained in the discharged waste liquid was determined. By evaluating this as a price, it was suggested to reduce water treatment costs and recycle fertilizer components. It was evaluated based on the results of major water quality analysis of waste liquid by crop, such as tomatoes, paprika, cucumbers, and strawberries, and in the case of P component, it was analyzed by converting it to the amount of phosphoric acid (P2O5). The amount of nitrogen (N) can be calculated by discharging 1,145.90kg·ha-1 of tomatoes, 920.43kg·ha-1 of paprika, 804.16kg·ha-1 of cucumbers, 405.83kg·ha-1 of strawberries, and the fertilizer content of P2O5 is 830.65kg·ha-1 of paprika, 622.32kg·ha-1 of tomatoes, 477.67kg·ha-1 of cucumbers. In addition, trace elements such as potassium (K), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg), iron (Fe), and manganese (Mn) were also analyzed to be emitted. The price per kg of each item calculated by averaging the price of fertilizer sold on the market can be evaluated as KRW, N 860.7, P 2,378.2, K 2,121.7, Ca 981.2, Mg 1,036.3, Fe 126,076.9, Mn 62,322.1, Zn 15,825.0, Cu 31,362.0, B 4,238.0, Mo 149,041.7. The annual fertilizer loss amount for each crop was calculated by comprehensively considering the price per kg calculated based on the market price of fertilizer, the concentration of waste by crop analyzed earlier, and the average annual emission of hydroponic cultivation. As a result of the analysis, the average of the four hydroponic crops was 5,475,361.1 won in fertilizer ingredients, with tomatoes valued at 6,995,622.3 won, paprika valued at 7,384,923.8 won, cucumbers valued at 5,091,607.9 won, and strawberries valued at 2,429,290.6 won. It was expected that if hydroponic drainage is managed through self-treatment or threshing before discharge rather than by leaking it into a river and treating it as a pollutant, it can be a valuable reusable fertilizer ingredient along with reducing water treatment costs.

Mobility Change around Neighborhood Parks and Green Spaces before and after the Outbreak of the COVID-19 Pandemic (COVID-19 발생 전·후 생활권 공원녹지 모빌리티 변화 분석)

  • Choi, Ga yoon;Kim, Yong gook;Kwon, Oh kyu;Yoo, Ye seul
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.51 no.4
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    • pp.101-118
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    • 2023
  • During the COVID-19 pandemic, the utilization rate of neighborhood parks and green spaces increased significantly, and the outbreak served as an opportunity to highlight the values and functions of neighborhood parks and green spaces for urban residents. This study aims to empirically analyze how citizens' movement and the use of neighborhood parks and green spaces changed before and after COVID-19 and examine the social and spatial characteristics that affected these changes. As a research method, first, people's mobility around neighborhood parks and green spaces before and after the COVID-19 pandemic were compared using signal data from telecommunication carriers. Through the analysis of changes in residence time and movement volume, the movement characteristics of citizens after COVID-19 and changes in walking-based park visits were examined. Second, the factors affecting the mobility change in neighborhood parks and green spaces were analyzed. The social and spatial characteristics that affect citizens' visits to neighborhood parks and green spaces before and after COVID-19 were examined through correlation and multiple regression analysis. Subsequently, through cluster analysis, the types of living areas for the post-COVID era were classified from the perspective of the supply and management of neighborhood parks and green spaces services, and directions for improving neighborhood parks and green spaces by type were presented. Major research findings are as follows: First, since the outbreak of COVID-19, activities within 500m of the residence have increased. The amount of stay and walking movement increased in both 2020 and 2021, which means that the need to review the quantitative standards and attractions of neighborhood parks and green spaces has increased considering the changed scope of the walking and living area. Second, the overall number of visits to neighborhood parks and green spaces by walking has increased since the outbreak of COVID-19. The number of visits to neighborhood parks and green spaces centered on the house and the workplace increased significantly. The park green policy in the post-COVID era should be promoted by discovering underprivileged areas, focusing on areas where residential, commercial, and business facilities are concentrated, and improving neighborhood parks and green services in quantitative and qualitative terms. Third, it was found that the higher the level of park green service, the higher the amount of walking movement. It is necessary to use indicators that contribute to improving citizens' actual park green services, such as walking accessibility, rather than looking at the criteria for securing green areas. Fourth, as a result of cluster analysis, five types of neighborhood parks and green spaces were derived in response to the post-COVID era. This suggests that it is necessary to consider the socioeconomic status and characteristics of living areas and the level of park green services required in future park green policies. This study has academic and policy significance in that it has laid the basis for establishing neighborhood parks and green spaces policy in response to the post-COVID era by using various analysis methodologies such as carrier signal data analysis, GIS analysis, and statistical analysis.

Information types and characteristics within the Wireless Emergency Alert in COVID-19: Focusing on Wireless Emergency Alerts in Seoul (코로나 19 하에서 재난문자 내의 정보유형 및 특성: 서울특별시 재난문자를 중심으로)

  • Yoon, Sungwook;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.45-68
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    • 2022
  • The central and local governments of the Republic of Korea provided information necessary for disaster response through wireless emergency alerts (WEAs) in order to overcome the pandemic situation in which COVID-19 rapidly spreads. Among all channels for delivering disaster information, wireless emergency alert is the most efficient, and since it adopts the CBS(Cell Broadcast Service) method that broadcasts directly to the mobile phone, it has the advantage of being able to easily access disaster information through the mobile phone without the effort of searching. In this study, the characteristics of wireless emergency alerts sent to Seoul during the past year and one month (January 2020 to January 2021) were derived through various text mining methodologies, and various types of information contained in wireless emergency alerts were analyzed. In addition, it was confirmed through the population mobility by age in the districts of Seoul that what kind of influence it had on the movement behavior of people. After going through the process of classifying key words and information included in each character, text analysis was performed so that individual sent characters can be used as an analysis unit by applying a document cluster analysis technique based on the included words. The number of WEAs sent to the Seoul has grown dramatically since the spread of Covid-19. In January 2020, only 10 WEAs were sent to the Seoul, but the number of the WEAs increased 5 times in March, and 7.7 times over the previous months. Since the basic, regional local government were authorized to send wireless emergency alerts independently, the sending behavior of related to wireless emergency alerts are different for each local government. Although most of the basic local governments increased the transmission of WEAs as the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 increases, the trend of the increase in WEAs according to the increase in the number of confirmed cases of Covid-19 was different by region. By using structured econometric model, the effect of disaster information included in wireless emergency alerts on population mobility was measured by dividing it into baseline effect and accumulating effect. Six types of disaster information, including date, order, online URL, symptom, location, normative guidance, were identified in WEAs and analyzed through econometric modelling. It was confirmed that the types of information that significantly change population mobility by age are different. Population mobility of people in their 60s and 70s decreased when wireless emergency alerts included information related to date and order. As date and order information is appeared in WEAs when they intend to give information about Covid-19 confirmed cases, these results show that the population mobility of higher ages decreased as they reacted to the messages reporting of confirmed cases of Covid-19. Online information (URL) decreased the population mobility of in their 20s, and information related to symptoms reduced the population mobility of people in their 30s. On the other hand, it was confirmed that normative words that including the meaning of encouraging compliance with quarantine policies did not cause significant changes in the population mobility of all ages. This means that only meaningful information which is useful for disaster response should be included in the wireless emergency alerts. Repeated sending of wireless emergency alerts reduces the magnitude of the impact of disaster information on population mobility. It proves indirectly that under the prolonged pandemic, people started to feel tired of getting repetitive WEAs with similar content and started to react less. In order to effectively use WEAs for quarantine and overcoming disaster situations, it is necessary to reduce the fatigue of the people who receive WEA by sending them only in necessary situations, and to raise awareness of WEAs.

A Study on the Palsapum (八賜品, Eight-Bestowed Things), Treasure No. 440, in Tong-Yong Shrine to the Loyal Dead in Korea (보물 제440호 통영 충렬사 팔사품(八賜品) 연구)

  • Jang, Kyung-hee
    • Journal of Korean Historical Folklife
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    • no.46
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    • pp.195-237
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    • 2014
  • Palsapum are ornaments to reveal the purpose of commander of three naval forces as well as symbols to remember the greatness of admiral Yi, Sun-Shin. In 1966, ther were designated as a treasure No. 440 based on their value; however, they have not received attention from academia because they are relics from China. This study compares and analyzes the document, paintings, and relevant references from Korea and China focusing on Palsapum, understands their formal characteristics, and examines their historical value such as years and location of creation. As a result, the study determines five of them are original, but three of them were newly created by the later generations. The five, Dodogin (都督印, Commander's seal)·Yeongpae (令牌, Commander's tablet)·Gwido (鬼刀, Replica of the devil sword)·Chamdo (斬刀, Replica of the decapitation swor d)·and Gognapal (bugle) were created by Ming Dynasty before 1598, and delivered by the hands of General Chen Lin. The other three, Dokjeongi (督戰 旗, Battle flag)·Hongsoryeonggi (紅小令旗, Commander's flag)·and Namsoryeonggi (藍小令旗, Commander's flag), were created in 19th century by Joseon Dynasty. After analysis on the former relics, the study determines that they are not official relics with the dignity of Ming Dynasty but personal relics with regional characteristics; in other words, Palsamun are not the royal gifts from Emperor Shenzong to Admiral Yi, Sun-Shin. but personal momentoes left by General Chen Lin in the Tongjeyoung to celebrate the admiral. The names, variety, numbers, and appurtenances of Palsapum have been changed with time as follows. First, the scholars of Jeseon in 17the century only focused on Dodogin. It was certainly created in Ming Dynasty; however, it was a personal stamp, so considered to be not from the emperor but from General Chen Lin. Second, Palsapum was called Palsamul and consisted of 14 pieces of 8 kinds in 18the century, ; it is confirmed on the 「Dosul(圖說, stories with pictures of」 『Yi Chungmugong Literary Collection』 The sizes of five relics including Dodogin are similar to the records, but their patterns and shapes are exotic, or cannot be found in Joseon. Thus, they reflect the regional characteristics of Guangdong province. Third, they were called Palsapum, and consisted on 15 pieces of 8 kinds in 19th century; it is confirmed on , a sixteen-fold folding screen drawn by Shin, Gwan-Ho in 1861. The stamp box, tablet bag, and three flags were newly created to engrave Joseon style letters and patterns on damageable materials such as leather and cloth. The relics easy to be destroyed have been renewed even after 19th century. Last, there are many misunderstandings about Palsapum by governmental indifference and improper management of records even though they were designated as a treasure in very early times. Thus, authorities should be concerned with Palsapum to provide the measures for stable maintenance of the relics; this will let people remember not only the history of cooperation between Korea and China to stop the Japanese ambition, but also Admiral Yi, Sun-Shin and General Chen Lin to bring victory in Japanese invasions of Korea.

The Effects of Self-regulatory Resources and Construal Levels on the Choices of Zero-cost Products (자아조절자원 및 해석수준이 공짜대안 선택에 미치는 영향)

  • Lee, Jinyong;Im, Seoung Ah
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.55-76
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    • 2012
  • Most people prefer to choose zero-cost products they may get without paying any money. The 'zero-cost effect' can be explained with a 'zero-cost model' where consumers attach special values to zero-cost products in a different way from general economic models (Shampanier, Mazar and Ariely 2007). If 2 different products at the regular prices of ₩200 and ₩400 simultaneously offer ₩200 discounts, the prices will be changed to ₩0 and ₩200, respectively. In spite of the same price gap of the two products after the ₩200 discounts, people are much more likely to select the free alternative than the same product at the price of ₩200. Although prior studies have focused on the 'zero-cost effect' in isolation of other factors, this study investigates the moderating effects of a self-regulatory resource and a construal level on the selection of free products. Self-regulatory resources induce people to control or regulate their behavior. However, since self-regulatory resources are limited, they are to be easily depleted when exerted (Muraven, Tice, and Baumeister 1998). Without the resources, consumers tend to become less sensitive to price changes and to spend money more extravagantly (Vohs and Faber 2007). Under this condition, they are also likely to invest less effort on their information processing and to make more intuitive decisions (Pocheptsova, Amir, Dhar, and Baumeister 2009). Therefore, context effects such as price changes and zero cost effects are less likely in the circumstances of resource depletion. In addition, construal levels have profound effects on the ways of information processing (Trope and Liberman 2003, 2010). In a high construal level, people tend to attune their minds to core features and desirability aspects, whereas, in a low construal level, they are more likely to process information based on secondary features and feasibility aspects (Khan, Zhu, and Kalra 2010). A perceived value of a product is more related to desirability whereas a zero cost or a price level is more associated with feasibility. Thus, context effects or reliance on feasibility (for instance, the zero cost effect) will be diminished in a high level construal while those effects may remain in a low level construal. When people make decisions, these 2 factors can influence the magnitude of the 'zero-cost effect'. This study ran two experiments to investigate the effects of self-regulatory resources and construal levels on the selection of a free product. Kisses and Ferrero-Rocher, which were adopted in the prior study (Shampanier et al. 2007) were also used as alternatives in Experiments 1 and 2. We designed Experiment 1 in order to test whether self-regulatory resource depletion will moderate the zero-cost effect. The level of self-regulatory resources was manipulated with two different tasks, a Sudoku task in the depletion condition and a task of drawing diagrams in the non-depletion condition. Upon completion of the manipulation task, subjects were randomly assigned to one of a decision set with a zero-cost option (i.e., Kisses ₩0, and Ferrero-Rocher ₩200) or a set without a zero-cost option (i.e., Kisses ₩200, and Ferrero-Rocher ₩400). A pair of alternatives in the two decision sets have the same price gap of ₩200 between a low-priced Kisses and a high-priced Ferrero-Rocher. Subjects in the no-depletion condition selected Kisses more often (71.88%) over Ferrero-Rocher when Kisses was free than when it was priced at ₩200 (34.88%). However, the zero-cost effect disappeared when people do not have self-regulatory resources. Experiment 2 was conducted to investigate whether constual levels influence the magnitude of the 'zero-cost effect'. To manipulate construal levels, 4 different 'why (in the high construal level condition)' or 'how (in the low construal level condition)' questions about health management were asked. They were presented with 4 boxes connected with downward arrows. In a box at the top, there was one question, 'Why do I maintain good physical health?' or 'How do I maintain good physical health?' Subjects inserted a response to the question of why or how they would maintain good physical health. Similar tasks were repeated for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th responses. After the manipulation task, subjects were randomly assigned either to a decision set with a zero-cost option, or to a set without it, as in Experiment 1. When a low construal level is primed with 'how', subjects chose free Kisses (60.66%) more often over Ferrero-Rocher than they chose ₩200 Kisses (42.19%) over ₩400 FerreroRocher. On contrast, the zero-cost effect could not be observed any longer when a high construal level is primed with 'why'.

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An Exploratory Study on Customers' Individual Factors on Waiting Experience (고객의 개인적 요소가 대기시간 경험에 미치는 영향에 대한 탐색적 연구)

  • Kim, Juyoung;Yoo, Bomi
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.1-30
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    • 2010
  • Customers often experience waiting for buying service. Managing customers' waiting time is important for service providers since customers who are dissatisfied with waiting, secede from a service place at last. Not a few studies have been done to solve waiting time problem and improve customers' waiting experience. Hui & Tse(1996) identify evaluation factors in customers' behavioral mechanism as customers wait. That is, customers experience perceived waiting time, waiting acceptability and emotional response to the wait when they wait. Since customers evaluate the wait using these factors, service provider should manage these factors in order to minimize customers' dissatisfaction. Therefore, this study explores that evaluation factors of waiting are influenced by customers' situational and experiential characteristics, which include customer loyalty, transaction importance for customer and waiting expectation level. Those situational and experiential characteristics are usually given to service providers so they can't control these at waiting point. The major findings derived from two exploratory studies can be summarized as follows. First, according to the result from the study 1 (restaurant setting), customers' transaction importance has the greatest positive influence on waiting experience. The results show restaurant service provider could prevent customers' separation effectively through strategies which raise customers' transaction importance, like giving special coupons for important events. Second, in study 2 (amusement part setting) customer loyalty has large positive impact on waiting experience as well as transaction importance. This results show that service provider could minimize customers' dissatisfaction using strategies which raise customer loyalty continuously. This results show customer perceives waiting experience differently according to characteristics of service place and service itself. Therefore, service provider should grasp the unique customers' situational and experiential characters for each service and service place. It could provide an effective strategy for waiting time management. Third, the study finds transaction importance and waiting expectation level have direct influence customers' waiting experience as independent variables, while existing studies treated them as moderators. Customer loyalty which has not been incorporated in previous waiting time research is known to affect waiting experience. It suggests that marketing strategy which builds up customer loyalty for long period of time is also quite effective, compared to short term tactics to help customers endure waiting time. Fourth, this study reveals the importance of actual waiting time along with perceived waiting time. So far most studies only focus on customers' perceived waiting time. Especially, this study incorporates the concept of patient limit on waiting time to investigate effect of actual waiting time. The results show that there were various responses to the wait depending on how actual waiting time exceeds individual's patent limit on waiting time or not, even though customers wait about the same period of time. Finally, using structural equation model, conceptual path between behavioral responses is verified. As customer perceives waiting time, then she decides whether she can endure it or not, and then her emotional response occurs. This result are somewhat different from Hui & Tse(1996)'s study. The study also includes theoretical contributions as well as practical implications.

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