• Title/Summary/Keyword: macroeconomic value

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Deduction of Evaluation Factors and the Calculation of Weighted Value to Select Export Target Country of Public IT Service (공공 IT 서비스의 수출대상국 선정을 위한 평가항목 도출 및 가중치 산정)

  • Kwon, Hyeog-In;Lee, Jin-Hwa;Park, Jong-Seok
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2015
  • Due to the constant expansion of overseas public IT market, exportation market mainly based on e-government is expanding and platform needs to be introduced urgently to systematically support it. Thus, this study was carried on to draw evaluation items and weighted value of tools to support decision-making out of services of public IT platform. In this study, the tools supporting decision-making were defined as concept that draws exportation customers by wholly considering 2 aspects of enterprise capabilities and national environment. To develop tools supporting decision-making, the items to evaluate the aspect of enterprise capabilities and national environment were drawn through study on literature and open question and evaluation items were eliminated and AHP analysis was done through question given to experts. As a result, the significance was found in the order of Export Competitive Advantage > Export Marketing Strategy > Export Human Resources > Export-Related Organizational Resources > Export-Related Organizational Capabilities in the aspect of enterprise capabilities. The significance of evaluation was found in the order of Service Market Efficiency > Technical innovation and Maturity > Institutions > Market Efficiency > Macroeconomic Environment > Infrastructure in the aspect of national environment.

Short-term Construction Investment Forecasting Model in Korea (건설투자(建設投資)의 단기예측모형(短期豫測模型) 비교(比較))

  • Kim, Kwan-young;Lee, Chang-soo
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.121-145
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    • 1992
  • This paper examines characteristics of time series data related to the construction investment(stationarity and time series components such as secular trend, cyclical fluctuation, seasonal variation, and random change) and surveys predictibility, fitness, and explicability of independent variables of various models to build a short-term construction investment forecasting model suitable for current economic circumstances. Unit root test, autocorrelation coefficient and spectral density function analysis show that related time series data do not have unit roots, fluctuate cyclically, and are largely explicated by lagged variables. Moreover it is very important for the short-term construction investment forecasting to grasp time lag relation between construction investment series and leading indicators such as building construction permits and value of construction orders received. In chapter 3, we explicate 7 forecasting models; Univariate time series model (ARIMA and multiplicative linear trend model), multivariate time series model using leading indicators (1st order autoregressive model, vector autoregressive model and error correction model) and multivariate time series model using National Accounts data (simple reduced form model disconnected from simultaneous macroeconomic model and VAR model). These models are examined by 4 statistical tools that are average absolute error, root mean square error, adjusted coefficient of determination, and Durbin-Watson statistic. This analysis proves two facts. First, multivariate models are more suitable than univariate models in the point that forecasting error of multivariate models tend to decrease in contrast to the case of latter. Second, VAR model is superior than any other multivariate models; average absolute prediction error and root mean square error of VAR model are quitely low and adjusted coefficient of determination is higher. This conclusion is reasonable when we consider current construction investment has sustained overheating growth more than secular trend.

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Determinants of Credit Default Swap Spreads: The Case of Korean Firms (한국 기업들의 신용부도스왑 스프레드에 대한 결정요인 분석)

  • Park, Yoon-S.;Kim, Han-Joon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.12 no.10
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    • pp.4359-4368
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    • 2011
  • Among several macroeconomic missteps blamed for the recent global financial crisis including the social problems of income distribution and the lack of proper financial remedies, two of them have received particular attention: the global BOP(Balance of Payment) imbalance and the misguided monetary policy. Such BOP imbalance was blamed for massive foreign exchange investment flows from Asia into the U.S., triggering the financial and real estate bubble in America. The latter refers to the excessively loose monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve, which pushed financial institutions and households into reckless investment behavior in search of higher returns. Given the abuse of certain innovative financial techniques and new investment instruments that have been created in recent decades, both collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) and credit default swaps (CDS) enjoyed a symbiotic and toxic relationship prior to the financial crisis This paper is organized as follows: The first section analyzes the real causes of the recent financial crisis. The second details the role of CDOs and CDS. Then, to identify key determinants of the CDS spreads in an emerging capital market, the sample data of major Korean firms' CDS spreads are used to estimate the risk premium by utilizing the multiple regression analysis. The empirical test result indicates that Korean 3-year treasury bond rate(TYIELD), market to book value ratio(MV/BV), and assets size(INASSETS) are shown to demonstrate statistically significant influences on the changes of the CDS premium for sample firms.

Opportunities and Challenges for Vietnam in AEC (AEC 출범 이후 베트남 경제의 기회와 도전)

  • Beak, Yong Hun
    • International Area Studies Review
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.101-124
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    • 2017
  • This study is to examine the current situation of the AEC (ASEAN Economic Community) and analyze macroeconomic situation of Vietnam since the launch of AEC. According to recent trade indicators, Vietnam is expected to be more productive in the manufacturing and processing sectors because it is at the heart of the global value chains (GVCs) in electronics, telephones, and textiles and shoes industry. Vietnam has signed or is negotiating free trade agreements with various countries around the world including Korea, Israel, EU and RCEP and so on. Therefore, it is expected that Vietnam's trade dependency and FDI inflows to Vietnam increase more and more. However, the fact that the proportion of exports by foreign-invested companies accounts for about 70% of the total exports implies the uncertainty of Vietnam's economy in the future. Attracting FDI investment can further reduce the competitiveness of domestic companies in Vietnam. Therefore, in order for Vietnam to maintain sustainable development in the future, it is necessary to reform the momentum of foreign-invested enterprises to the development of Vietnamese companies.

Empirical Study About ODA Effects on Job Creation

  • Seung Hee Ha;JaeHong Park
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.26 no.6
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    • pp.1-19
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    • 2022
  • Purpose - This study empirically investigates the effects of Official Development Assistance (ODA) on the economic activities of private actors in recipient countries. As a proxy for the economic activities of private actors, we utilize the job creation activities of foreign subsidiaries in recipient countries. The foreign subsidiaries provide a foundation for economic development by creating paying jobs. That is, if ODA has been successfully transferred to foreign subsidiaries, then these foreign subsidiaries should help economic growth and help create a boom in the local market by providing jobs. These jobs eventually lead to the achievement of the primary aims of foreign aid, including poverty reduction. Thus, this study empirically examines the relationship between ODA and the number of jobs created by foreign subsidiaries in recipient countries. Design/methodology - This is the first study to examine the effects of the ODA on the job creation of foreign subsidiaries because it has been hard to obtain internal information related to the employment status of foreign subsidiaries. Fortunately, we have a unique panel dataset provided by the Export-Import Bank of Korea (KEXIM) for 2006 to 2013. In terms of the empirical specification, we use the generalized least squares (GLS) method. The panel GLS estimator allows us to have an efficient estimation that overcomes the limitations of the panel data. It employs assumptions about the heteroscedasticity between the panels and makes an autocorrelation of the error term within each panel. Findings - We find that ODA influences job creation in foreign subsidiaries. In particular, we found that ODA creates more jobs in sales than in managerial or production positions. This study also shows that the effect of the ODA on the foreign subsidiaries' job creation activities depend on the purpose of the ODA. By examining ODA effects on the foreign subsidiaries' economic activities (e.g., job creation), this study fills a gap in the current literature. Originality/value - Existing studies that focus on the ODA effect have either a macroeconomic point or a microeconomic point of view. However, both approaches do not explain how well foreign aid has influenced private economic actors of recipient countries. In essence, previous researchers found it difficult to obtain the necessary data for internal employment status from foreign subsidiaries. However, thanks to the Korea Export-Import Bank, this study shows that ODA indeed influences the job creation activities of foreign subsidiaries even after controlling for other factors such as FDI, GDP growth rate, employment rate, household expenditure, mother firms' share, etc. By doing so, we can examine how ODA influences the job creation of foreign subsidiaries, which might help economic development and reduce the amount of poverty in recipient countries.

FDI and the Evolution of Directed Technological Progress Bias: New Evidence from Korean Outward Investment

  • Boye Li;Xiang Li;Yaokun Wu
    • Journal of Korea Trade
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.1-22
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    • 2023
  • Purpose - Southeast Asia has been the focus of Korea's foreign investment. Korea has been helping developing countries in Southeast Asia achieve economic growth and win-win cooperation through capital exports. FDI is an important channel for technology diffusion. However, the impact of FDI on the bias of technological progress in the host country is dependent on the host country's own endowment structure and capital-labor factor substitution elasticity. Therefore, the central issue of this paper is to accurately evaluate the impact of Korea's FDI to the four Southeast Asian countries in various industries on their bias of technological progress. Design/methodology - The paper uses macroeconomic data for Korea and four East Asian countries to estimate capital-labor factor elasticities of substitution using nonlinear, seemingly uncorrelated regressions (NLSUR). Then, the biased technological change index (BTCI) is calculated for each country. Finally, panel data analysis is used to explore the impact of Korean FDI in various industries in the four Southeast Asian countries on their own directed technological progress, and a robustness test is conducted. Findings - There is a substitution relationship between capital and labor factors based on their elasticity in Korea, Singapore and the Philippines. There is a complementary relationship between capital and labor factors in Indonesia and Malaysia. According to the BTCI, there is a trend toward labor-biased technological progress in all countries. Korean investments in manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade in the host country trigger capital-biased technological change in the host country; investments in the finance, insurance and information and communication sectors trigger labor-biased technological change. In addition, this paper also confirms that directed technological progress can enable cross-country transmission. Originality/value - The innovation of this paper lies in three aspects. First, we estimate the BTCI for five countries and explore the trend and situation of directed technological progress in each country from each country's own perspective. Second, we explore the impact of Korean FDI in the host country on the bias to its technological progress at the industry level. Second, we explore the impact of Korean FDI in various industries in the four Southeast Asian countries on the four countries' own directed technological progress from a national perspective. Finally, we propose corresponding countermeasures for technological progress from the perspective of inverse factor endowment. These innovative points not only expand the understanding of technological progress and cross-country technology transfer in East Asia but also provide practical references for policy-makers and business operators.

Structural Adjustment of Domestic Firms in the Era of Market Liberalization (시장개방(市場開放)과 국내기업(國內企業)의 구조조정(構造調整))

  • Seong, So-mi
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.13 no.4
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    • pp.91-116
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    • 1991
  • Market liberalization progressing simultaneously with high and rapidly rising domestic wages has created an adverse business environment for domestic firms. Korean firms are losing their international competitiveness in comparison to firms from LDC(Less Developed Countries) in low-tech industries. In high-tech industries, domestic firms without government protection (which is impossible due to the liberalization policy and the current international status of the Korean economy) are in a disadvantaged position relative to firms from advanced countries. This paper examines the division of roles between the private sector and the government in order to achieve a successful structural adjustment, which has become the impending industrial policy issue caused by high domestic wages, on the one hand, and the opening of domestic markets, on the other. The micro foundation of the economy-wide structural adjustment is actually the restructuring of business portfolios at the firm level. The firm-level business restructuring means that firms in low-value-added businesses or with declining market niches establish new major businesses in higher value-added segments or growing market niches. The adjustment of the business structure at the firm level can only be accomplished by accumulating firm-specific managerial assets necessary to establish a new business structure. This can be done through learning-by-doing in the whole system of management, including research and development, manufacturing, and marketing. Therefore, the voluntary cooperation among the people in the company is essential for making the cost of the learning process lower than that at the competing companies. Hence, firms that attempt to restructure their major businesses need to induce corporate-wide participation through innovations in organization and management, encourage innovative corporate culture, and maintain cooperative labor unions. Policy discussions on structural adjustments usually regard firms as a black box behind a few macro variables. But in reality, firm activities are not flows of materials but relationships among human resources. The growth potential of companies are embodied in the human resources of the firm; the balance of interest among stockholders, managers, and workers of the company' brings the accumulation of the company's core competencies. Therefore, policymakers and economists shoud change their old concept of the firm as a technological black box which produces a marketable commodities. Firms should be regarded as coalitions of interest groups such as stockholders, managers, and workers. Consequently the discussion on the structural adjustment both at the macroeconomic level and the firm level should be based on this new paradigm of understanding firms. The government's role in reducing the cost of structural adjustment and supporting should the creation of new industries emphasize the following: First, government must promote the competition in domestic markets by revising laws related to antitrust policy, bankruptcy, and the promotion of small and medium-sized companies. General consensus on the limitations of government intervention and the merit of deregulation should be sought among policymakers and people in the business world. In the age of internationalization, nation-specific competitive advantages cannot be exclusively in favor of domestic firms. The international competitiveness of a domestic firm derives from the firm-specific core competencies which can be accumulated by internal investment and organization of the firm. Second, government must build up a solid infrastructure of production factors including capital, technology, manpower, and information. Structural adjustment often entails bankruptcies and partial waste of resources. However, it is desirable for the government not to try to sustain marginal businesses, but to support the diversification or restructuring of businesses by assisting in factor creation. Institutional support for venture businesses needs to be improved, especially in the financing system since many investment projects in venture businesses are highly risky, even though they are very promising. The proportion of low-value added production processes and declining industries should be reduced by promoting foreign direct investment and factory automation. Moreover, one cannot over-emphasize the importance of future-oriented labor policies to be based on the new paradigm of understanding firm activities. The old laws and instititutions related to labor unions need to be reformed. Third, government must improve the regimes related to money, banking, and the tax system to change business practices dependent on government protection or undesirable in view of the evolution of the Korean economy as a whole. To prevent rational business decisions from contradicting to the interest of the economy as a whole, government should influence the business environment, not the business itself.

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The Effect of Data Size on the k-NN Predictability: Application to Samsung Electronics Stock Market Prediction (데이터 크기에 따른 k-NN의 예측력 연구: 삼성전자주가를 사례로)

  • Chun, Se-Hak
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.239-251
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    • 2019
  • Statistical methods such as moving averages, Kalman filtering, exponential smoothing, regression analysis, and ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) have been used for stock market predictions. However, these statistical methods have not produced superior performances. In recent years, machine learning techniques have been widely used in stock market predictions, including artificial neural network, SVM, and genetic algorithm. In particular, a case-based reasoning method, known as k-nearest neighbor is also widely used for stock price prediction. Case based reasoning retrieves several similar cases from previous cases when a new problem occurs, and combines the class labels of similar cases to create a classification for the new problem. However, case based reasoning has some problems. First, case based reasoning has a tendency to search for a fixed number of neighbors in the observation space and always selects the same number of neighbors rather than the best similar neighbors for the target case. So, case based reasoning may have to take into account more cases even when there are fewer cases applicable depending on the subject. Second, case based reasoning may select neighbors that are far away from the target case. Thus, case based reasoning does not guarantee an optimal pseudo-neighborhood for various target cases, and the predictability can be degraded due to a deviation from the desired similar neighbor. This paper examines how the size of learning data affects stock price predictability through k-nearest neighbor and compares the predictability of k-nearest neighbor with the random walk model according to the size of the learning data and the number of neighbors. In this study, Samsung electronics stock prices were predicted by dividing the learning dataset into two types. For the prediction of next day's closing price, we used four variables: opening value, daily high, daily low, and daily close. In the first experiment, data from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. In the second experiment, data from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017 were used for the learning process. The test data is from January 1, 2018 to August 31, 2018 for both experiments. We compared the performance of k-NN with the random walk model using the two learning dataset. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was 1.3497 for the random walk model and 1.3570 for the k-NN for the first experiment when the learning data was small. However, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for the random walk model was 1.3497 and the k-NN was 1.2928 for the second experiment when the learning data was large. These results show that the prediction power when more learning data are used is higher than when less learning data are used. Also, this paper shows that k-NN generally produces a better predictive power than random walk model for larger learning datasets and does not when the learning dataset is relatively small. Future studies need to consider macroeconomic variables related to stock price forecasting including opening price, low price, high price, and closing price. Also, to produce better results, it is recommended that the k-nearest neighbor needs to find nearest neighbors using the second step filtering method considering fundamental economic variables as well as a sufficient amount of learning data.

The Economic Impact of the Korean Port Industry on the National Economy : from the Viewpoint of Macroeconomics (한국항만산업이 국가경제에 미치는 영향에 관한 분석 - 거시경제의 관점에서 -)

  • Moon, S.H.
    • Journal of Korean Port Research
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.65-92
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    • 1992
  • The Korean central government has not appreciate the full extent of the impact of seaports on the national economy. As a consequence port investment has not been given sufficient priority and capacity has failed to keep pace with demand. The principal reason for this failure is the fact that the linkages (or relationships) of the port transport industry with other sectors have not been quantified and fully appreciated. To overcome this dificiency this paper developed a port input-output model to determine the economic impact of the port industry on the national economy. This impact study was conducted by analysing the impact of the Korean port industry upon the national economy from the macroeconomic viewpoint, and identifying the spreading effects of port investments upon the nation's economy. The analysis of the economic impact of the port industry suggests that its contribution to the Korean economy is substantial. What the model shows is, in quantifiable terms, there are the strong economic linkages between the port industry and the other sectors of the national economy. The contribution of the port industry to the Korean economy was summarised in the Conclusion section.

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