• Title/Summary/Keyword: macroeconomic performance

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The Early Stage Performance of Successful SMEs and a Desirable Policy for SMEs (성공한 중소기업의 창업초기 경영실적과 정책의 방향)

  • Kang, Won
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.9 no.3
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2014
  • This study examines the performance of the successful small and medium size firms in their early stage. No sign of widespread chasm or the death valley among the sample firm is identified. More than half the sample firms had made reasonable forecast on the uncertainty of their future business before they were incorporated. Overall results of empirical studies carried out in this article allow us to assert that the difficulties experienced in the early stage are mostly manageable within the organization. This implies that the Government support for start-ups in early stage should be discouraged. Empirical investigation across different periods reveals, however, that the Government may have significant roles to play when it comes down to controlling the macroeconomic shocks.

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The Impact of China Exchange Rate Policy on its Trading Partners: Evidence Based on the GVAR Model

  • ABBAS, Shah;NGUYEN, Van Chien;YANFU, Zhu;NGUYEN, Huu Tinh
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.8
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    • pp.131-141
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    • 2020
  • This study is designed to investigate the impact of China exchange rate policy on its trading partners by using a country multi-dataset GVAR model. Our model includes samples of 30 countries, six from high-income, six from middle-income and eighteen from low-income countries. This study used annual time series data over the period 1992 to 2017. We constructed currency misalignment index and it provided some interesting features about the currency undervaluation and overvaluation. The results of the currency misalignment shows that China's Renminbi is structurally more undervalued over the sample period as compared to other countries, and fluctuation in major currencies effects the global trade around the world. The overall empirical results of the GVAR model indicate that RMB undervaluation affects the trade pattern and macroeconomic performance of China's trading partners. Overall, China's exchange rate undervaluation has mixed effects on trading partner's GDP, exports and imports. The devaluation of China's RMB efficiently stimulated China's exports and reduced imports. While, in some countries, this effect is reverse, the RMB undervaluation increases the GDP of partner countries and also increases their exports to China. The results confirm the strong and leading role of the Chinese Renminbi in the global trade.

Determinants of Indonesian Islamic Rural Banks' Profitability: Collusive or Non-Collusive Behavior?

  • WIDARJONO, Agus;MIFRAHI, Mustika Noor;PERDANA, Andika Ridha Ayu
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.11
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    • pp.657-668
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    • 2020
  • This paper investigates the effect of market structure, including some bank-specific variables and macroeconomic conditions, on the profitability of Indonesian Islamic rural banks. We apply the structure conduct performance (SCP) and the relative market power (RMP) hypothesis. Panel data comprising 142 Islamic rural banks from 2013Q1 to 2018Q4 are employed. This study breaks them apart, associated with the level of economic development consisting of Java as developed regions and outside Java as less developed regions. This study employs static and dynamic panel regression. The GMM method, however, is appropriate because of the dynamic nature of profitability. Our results confirm the SCP hypothesis and fail to support the RMP hypothesis. The higher market concentration allows Islamic rural banks to generate a significantly higher profit by conducting a collusive strategy. More interestingly, the collusive behavior may result in more profit for Islamic rural banks located in the developed regions than those in less developed regions. Evidence also highlights the importance of operating efficiency and impaired financing on profitability. High operating efficiency and low impaired financing can improve profit. Our results suggest that capitalizing market share by improving efficiency and optimizing financing contracts between PLS and non-PLS contracts also improve profit.

A Study of Fisheries' Competitiveness in Korea, China and Japan (한.중.일 수산업의 산업경쟁력 분석)

  • Hong, Hyun-Pya;Lee, Heon-Dong;Ma, Chang-Mo;Baek, Eun-Young
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.127-148
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    • 2009
  • The objective of this paper is to evaluate of fisheries competitiveness in Korea, China and Japan. A joint research with researchers from Korea, China and Japan from 2007 to 2008 was conducted to analyze competitiveness of each respective fishery industry. An industry's competitiveness means the aggregated and potential abilities of the infrastructure, producers and other operators in the industry. The study improved the Norway-Iceland Model developed by the FCI Team(2005) and applied it to the fisheries of the 3 countries. To compare competitiveness of each fishery from the 3 countries, the study examined 87 items including 64 questions and 23 statistics items. Korea fisheries' competitive advantage over China is in marketing capability. Capabilities of fishing companies and fishing processors are also slightly over Japan's performance. However, Korea holds an absolute disadvantage over China and Japan when it comes to the macroeconomic environments and government support, industrial environments and infrastructure, and production and management. Korea's fishing companies and fishing processors especially are much weaker than those of China. In conclusion, Korea needs strategies to advance the industry's structure, China needs to expand the industry's base and Japan needs to differentiate the industry.

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The Effect of Liquidity Creation on Bank Capital: A Case Study in Indonesia

  • FUAD, Ahmad;DISMAN, Disman;NUGRAHA, Nugraha;MAYASARI, Mayasari;FUAD, Ahmad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.649-656
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    • 2021
  • This paper aims to examine the moderating role of bank competition on the effect of liquidity creation on bank capital. We measure bank competition using the Lerner index approach, liquidity creation using the Catfat approach, and bank capital using the capital to total asset ratio approach. This test also considers control variables from bank-specific factors such as Return on Assets, Loan to Deposit Ratio, and Non-Performance Loans as well as macroeconomic factors such as Gross Domestic Product, inflation, and Bank Indonesia interest rates. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling. The data sample obtained was 96 banks from a population of 114 banks in Indonesia which consistently operated during the period 2008-2018. Hypothesis testing uses panel data regression analysis techniques through the first model of the Hayes method. The results show that the negative effect of liquidity creation on bank capital depends on competition. We found that bank competition at any level (low, medium, high) negatively moderates (weakens) the effect of liquidity creation on bank capital in all banks. This finding is consistent with the view that banks may strengthen their capital in response to bank competition which may decrease the level of bank liquidity creation.

Estimation of the Korean Yield Curve via Bayesian Variable Selection (베이지안 변수선택을 이용한 한국 수익률곡선 추정)

  • Koo, Byungsoo
    • Economic Analysis
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.84-132
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    • 2020
  • A central bank infers market expectations of future yields based on yield curves. The central bank needs to precisely understand the changes in market expectations of future yields in order to have a more effective monetary policy. This need explains why a range of models have attempted to produce yield curves and market expectations that are as accurate as possible. Alongside the development of bond markets, the interconnectedness between them and macroeconomic factors has deepened, and this has rendered understanding of what macroeconomic variables affect yield curves even more important. However, the existence of various theories about determinants of yields inevitably means that previous studies have applied different macroeconomics variables when estimating yield curves. This indicates model uncertainties and naturally poses a question: Which model better estimates yield curves? Put differently, which variables should be applied to better estimate yield curves? This study employs the Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model and takes the Bayesian approach to variable selection in order to ensure precision in estimating yield curves and market expectations of future yields. Bayesian variable selection may be an effective estimation method because it is expected to alleviate problems arising from a priori selection of the key variables comprising a model, and because it is a comprehensive approach that efficiently reflects model uncertainties in estimations. A comparison of Bayesian variable selection with the models of previous studies finds that the question of which macroeconomic variables are applied to a model has considerable impact on market expectations of future yields. This shows that model uncertainties exert great influence on the resultant estimates, and that it is reasonable to reflect model uncertainties in the estimation. Those implications are underscored by the superior forecasting performance of Bayesian variable selection models over those models used in previous studies. Therefore, the use of a Bayesian variable selection model is advisable in estimating yield curves and market expectations of yield curves with greater exactitude in consideration of the impact of model uncertainties on the estimation.

Aid Effectiveness in Practice: A Case Study on the National Data Center in Mongolia

  • Hong, Sung Gul;Lee, Sang Joon
    • Journal of Service Research and Studies
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2013
  • The main purpose of this paper is to examine the aid effectiveness of ODA projects through a case of an e-Government ODA. The case at hand is the Mongolian National Data Center project, which was supported by Korea International Cooperation Agency in 2007~2009. In this paper, we analyze aid effectiveness through a case instead of a long-term macroeconomic analysis. By using OECD DAC guideline for performance evaluation of ODA project combined with PRM (Performance Reference Model) for evaluating e-Government, authors undertakes a post-implementation evaluation on the Mongolian NDC project. The result shows that the NDC project has been relevant and implemented effectively and efficiently given the political instability incurred by the election fraud in 2008. However, there have been problems as well. Provision of defected monitors was a critical problem while disagreement on the safety of the building was lasted for two more years to be settled. Some comments on the training program are also worth to hear to ameliorate similar projects. But more fundamental problems are found in impacts and sustainability areas. Low political status of ICTPA as a coordinating organization for ICT ODA and unstable job security of NDC are serious hurdles to increase effectiveness and efficiency of NDC. ICTPA has played very limited roles in coordinating government-wide ICT ODA projects because it lacks actual power and control over them. Other government organizations do not fully trust NDC as a reliable government data center due to low political status and lack of job security. Thus critical factors to affect the effectiveness and efficiency of e-Government ODA projects are political and organizational instead of economic.

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A Study on the Economic Performance of the Textile Industry for Korean traditional Clothes (한북직물업체의 생산 및 유통구조에 관한 연구)

  • 조효숙
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.34
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    • pp.135-150
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    • 1997
  • The purpose of this study was to inves-tigate the economic performance of the textile industry for the Korean traditional clothes. The content of this paper had two pars; The first part was for the macroeconomic aspects such as location production employments and the produc-tion facilities of the textile industries. The second part was for the microeconomic aspects such as business type branding method fabric type R&D efforts sourc-ing and the distributional channel The major results were as follows: 1.) Most textile firms for the korean traditional clothes were located in Gongju for man-made fibers and in Jinju for silk fabrics. 2) The size of the textile industry in terms of the number of business produc-tion amount the number of employee de-creased during 1994 and 1995 due to the decreasing demand. 3) Over the half of the textile firms produced raw fabric products while only 20% of them were involved in additional dyeing and /or printing finish which re-sulted in low value added production 4) The R&D effort of the textile indus-try for the Korean traditional clothes was very low due to the market uncertainty lack of technological knowledge and most of all small size of the firms 5) Most raw materials for the textile in -dustry were imported with high(25%) tariff rates resulting in price increase and thus low competitiveness in the market. 6) The textile producers sole about the 70% of their products to the wholesalers while selling the rest to the retailers di-rectly. This showed the dual structure of the distribution channel in the textile products. These results suggested some implica-tions for the firms the policy makers and the researchers. The firms should develop new and improved products to increase and create consumer demand by intensive R&D efforts. The government policy ma-kers should give financial supports the firms with R&D investment and legal help such as lowing tariff rate for the raw ma-terials. The researchers from the academy could help the textile industry with the advanced technological knowledge and up-date information for the consumer fashion demand.

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Analyzing the Operational Efficiency of South Korea Wholesalers and Retailers during COVID-19 period (Q1 to Q2 2020) (우리나라 도소매기업의 운영효율성에 대한 실증분석: 코로나19 기간(2020년 1~2분기)을 중심으로)

  • Kim, Gilwhan
    • Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.6
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    • pp.95-107
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    • 2020
  • We analyze the performance of South Korea wholesalers and retailers during the period when COVID-19 emerged and began to spread in South Korea. Specifically, we choose operational efficiency as a proxy variable for reflecting corporate performance and apply stochastic frontier analysis for estimating operational efficiency. Importantly, in order to examine the impact of the COVID-19 period (Q1 to Q2 2020) on operational efficiency, we consider the quarterly fixed effect corresponding to the COVID-19 period. Our findings include: (ⅰ) the average level of operational ffficiency is approximately 0.7138 during the analysis period (Q1 2019 to Q2 2020); (ⅱ) the fixed effect of the COVID-19 period on operational efficiency is not significant; and (ⅲ) operational efficiency is positively correlated with the scale of the company. Moreover, from an academic perspective, we make a contribution by examining the relationship between the operational efficiency as a firm-level variable and the COVID-19 period as a macroeconomic variable.

Real-time private consumption prediction using big data (빅데이터를 이용한 실시간 민간소비 예측)

  • Seung Jun Shin;Beomseok Seo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.37 no.1
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    • pp.13-38
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    • 2024
  • As economic uncertainties have increased recently due to COVID-19, there is a growing need to quickly grasp private consumption trends that directly reflect the economic situation of private economic entities. This study proposes a method of estimating private consumption in real-time by comprehensively utilizing big data as well as existing macroeconomic indicators. In particular, it is intended to improve the accuracy of private consumption estimation by comparing and analyzing various machine learning methods that are capable of fitting ultra-high-dimensional big data. As a result of the empirical analysis, it has been demonstrated that when the number of covariates including big data is large, variables can be selected in advance and used for model fit to improve private consumption prediction performance. In addition, as the inclusion of big data greatly improves the predictive performance of private consumption after COVID-19, the benefit of big data that reflects new information in a timely manner has been shown to increase when economic uncertainty is high.